今年的政府工作报告提出，实施更加积极的财政政策。统筹安排收入、债券等各类财政资 金，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分 点，赤字规模5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。 具体如何发力，财政预算报告给出了更详细的答案。根据界面新闻的梳理，积极的财政政策 主要体现在四个方面：广义财政显著扩张、非税收入大幅下降、支出结构优化以及中央支出 显著提升。 财政部在预算报告中称，综合判断，国内外环境变化带来的影响将持续向财政传导，2025年 财政收支矛盾仍然突出，必须把困难挑战考虑得更充分一些，把政策举措准备得更周全一 些，为促进经济持续健康发展提供坚实保障。 广义财政显著扩张 根据预算报告，2025年拟安排财政预算赤字率4%左右，比上年提高1个百分点，赤字规模 5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。这里的赤字率是指狭义赤字率，即政府预算内的收支差 额和名义国内生产总值（GDP）之比。 此外，今年新增地方政府专项债规模为4.4万亿元，较上年增加5000亿元；发行1.3万亿元超 长期特别国债，较上年增加3000亿元；发行5000亿元特别国债，补充国有大行核心一级资 本。新增地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Two Sessions are expected to focus on "stabilizing growth" and emphasize macro policy support to boost domestic demand, with a particular focus on enhancing consumer spending [2][3]. Economic Policy Focus - UBS's chief economist Wang Tao predicts increased fiscal spending on consumption and households, including doubling the scale of trade-in subsidies, establishing childbirth and childcare subsidies, raising basic pension payments, and enhancing government support for basic social security [2]. - Nomura's chief economist Lu Ting highlights the government's potential focus on four areas: transfer payments to local governments, funding for large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs, financial support for the real estate sector, and fiscal assistance for low-income families [3]. - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with measures to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, reduce reserve requirements and policy interest rates, and promote reasonable inflation rebound [2]. Industry Trends - The emergence of AI applications, particularly driven by DeepSeek, is expected to stimulate investment in emerging sectors like AI and cloud computing, with the AI core industry projected to exceed 17.3 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for over 30% of the global market [3]. - The focus on innovation, technology, and modernization is evident in the frequency of related terms in government work reports, indicating a strong emphasis on sectors like AI, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure expansion, and food security [3][4]. Consumption and Market Dynamics - The stock market's recovery has shown a certain wealth effect, and the real estate sector has performed slightly better than expected, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment and spending [2]. - The National Two Sessions are anticipated to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5%, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption as a key priority [4].