Policy Developments - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, allowing private enterprises to enter monopolistic sectors like energy and railways, and supporting participation in low-altitude economy infrastructure[10] - The government aims to reserve over 40% of procurement budgets for small and medium enterprises in projects exceeding 4 million yuan[10] Economic Strategy - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of integrating "two重" construction into the "十四五" plan, focusing on strategic and forward-looking requirements[3] - Fiscal policy during the "十四五" period will maintain an active orientation, adjusting deficit rates and debt levels based on economic conditions[3] Industry Focus - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans for the "十四五" development of smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries[12] - By 2030, a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, with new electricity demand primarily met by renewable sources[12] Risk Considerations - There is a risk of delayed policy updates, which could impact the effectiveness of the measures introduced[3]

Economic News - The State Council meeting emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential and promote economic circulation, focusing on consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese consulates in Japan warned Chinese citizens about the deteriorating safety environment in Japan, advising against travel [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% from January to October [4] Key Company Information - Ningde Times' shareholder Huang Shilin plans to transfer 1% of shares [4] - Huaxia Happiness has had its pre-restructuring accepted by the Langfang Intermediate Court [4] - Kaiser Travel Industry formed a consortium with Guangzhou Haina to participate in the restructuring investment of Zhangjiajie Tourism Group, acquiring 800,000 shares [4] - Huakang Clean won a project worth 100 million yuan [4] - Chuangye Huikang is planning a change of control and will resume trading on November 17 [4] Antimony Industry Insights - China holds 30% of global antimony resources, with reserves increasing from 480,000 tons in 2020 to 670,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.7% [6] - In 2024, China is projected to produce 60,000 tons of antimony, accounting for 57.7% of global production, which has been declining over the past decade [7] - The demand for antimony in flame retardants remains the highest, while the fastest growth is seen in photovoltaic glass, with a projected 10.8% increase in global antimony consumption in 2024 [8] - The strong growth in photovoltaic installations is expected to drive sustained demand for antimony, with projections indicating a significant increase in demand from 2024 to 2027 [9] - The global antimony supply-demand gap is expected to widen, with a projected shortfall of 9.5 million tons by 2027, representing 42.8% of demand [10] - The tightening of antimony supply due to export controls and environmental policies in China is likely to push prices higher, with potential increases of up to 56% in domestic prices [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic situation shows a weak recovery, with 10 - month economic data indicating mixed trends in various sectors. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery, and the stock market has different trends in insurance capital investment and institutional research preferences. For 2026, the economy is expected to have positive growth, and different investment strategies are recommended [32][33]. - The commodity market is affected by factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation, resulting in price fluctuations and changes in market structure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, lower than the previous and the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from the previous month. The social financing scale in October was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month [1]. - In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, a narrower decline than before. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - to - date, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.28% year - to - date [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 462.91 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025 [2]. - On November 14, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", excluding some agricultural products [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - London's basic metals all declined due to the Fed's policy uncertainty and weak economic data. The demand for lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to reach 155 tons, with an oversupply of about 20 tons. In 2026, the demand is expected to increase by 30%, and the price may rise [4][5]. - The expansion project of Northern Zhongxin Antai Rare Earth Metals was put into production, increasing the production capacity and product variety. On November 13, zinc inventory reached a new high in over a month, while lead inventory decreased [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early November, the prices of coking coal and coke increased. The production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The shipping volume of iron ore to China increased, but port inventory reached an eight - month high [7][8][9]. - The Indonesian government set the benchmark prices for different grades of coal in the second half of November. The steel industry should seize development opportunities, improve product quality, and enhance the self - sufficiency rate of iron ore [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The first gas storage group in Northwest China started winter gas supply, with a maximum daily supply of over 5 million cubic meters. The Russian port of Novorossiysk stopped oil exports due to a drone attack and then resumed operations on November 16 [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Over 80% of winter wheat has been sown in China. The US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. India is considering resuming wheat product exports, and the US and Switzerland adjusted agricultural product tariffs [12]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% [13]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 17, the central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, 112.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature. On November 14, the central bank conducted 21.28 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.11 billion yuan [15][16]. 3.3.2 Key News - An important article by Xi Jinping emphasizes the development of new - quality productivity. Han Wenxiu mentions cultivating emerging and future industries. China's economic data in October shows a stable operation, and the government promotes consumption and implements fiscal and monetary policies [17][18][19]. - The real estate market shows price declines, and the government promotes "two - major" construction. The financial market needs improvement, and the central bank and financial regulatory authorities take measures. The bond market has rating changes and redemption events [19][20][24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market fluctuated narrowly, with mixed changes in bond yields and futures. The money market funds were balanced, and the overnight repurchase rate increased. The exchange - traded bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the convertible bond index declined [26][27]. - The yields of European and US bonds increased, and the money market interest rates showed different trends. The central bank's bond issuance had specific winning bid yields and multiples [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1007, down 48 basis points. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will maintain a volatile recovery, and the 10 - year treasury bond rate may decline. Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market's allocation power is neutral [32][33]. - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the GDP in 2026 will grow by about 5%, and recommends investment in three main lines. CITIC Securities believes that the wealth management industry is in a transformation period [33]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut is low, and the interest rate cut window may open. CICC Fixed Income believes that the bond market may have a configuration opportunity [34]. 3.4 Stock Market - At the end of Q3 2025, the insurance funds' stock investment balance increased significantly, with bank stocks being the main investment target. In November, nearly 770 companies were surveyed by institutions, with a focus on the electronics and machinery sectors [37]. - South - bound funds have been flowing in for 26 consecutive weeks, and Xiaomi Group - W received the highest net purchase in the past week [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability, marking a shift from the previous plan's focus on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [1] Group 1: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The plan suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the central government's fiscal expenditure ratio while enhancing local fiscal autonomy, especially as reliance on land finance decreases [2][3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a commitment to increasing local fiscal capacity [2] - The central fiscal expenditure ratio is currently below 15%, which is lower than that of major countries, highlighting the need for reform to better align responsibilities and resources between central and local governments [3] Group 2: Debt Management - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management is crucial, with a focus on addressing existing hidden debts and preventing new ones [4] - Transparency in local government debt information is essential, and debt management should consider sustainability and market conditions to minimize financing costs [4] - The government aims to optimize debt structure and scale, ensuring that debt management aligns with high-quality development goals [4] Group 3: Tax System Reform - The plan calls for deepening tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations align with the capacity of microeconomic entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [6][7] - The macro tax burden has been decreasing since 2017, with projections indicating that tax revenue will account for less than 13% of GDP by 2024, which may not be sustainable given the fiscal pressures [6] - Tax incentives should be rationalized to avoid market distortions and ensure fair competition, while direct tax systems need to be improved to promote social equity [7] Group 4: Zero-Based Budgeting Reform - The introduction of zero-based budgeting is seen as a critical reform to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [8][9] - Challenges in zero-based budgeting include reconciling legal spending requirements with the need for more efficient budget allocations [8][9] - Successful implementation of zero-based budgeting has been observed in various regions, enhancing fiscal management and resource allocation [9] Group 5: Proactive Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand effective demand, support technological self-reliance, and promote rural modernization and high-quality employment [11] - The policy will also address demographic changes and focus on risk prevention in key areas to create a conducive environment for fiscal policy implementation [11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a foundational period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, necessitating strategic actions to overcome challenges and leverage opportunities [10][11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market may rebound after further corrections, with expectations of a choppy upward pattern in the short term as new catalysts are awaited [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index showed resilience, supported by the dividend and consumption sectors, while technology indices continued to face corrections [1][8] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a decline in the probability of a rate cut in December, impacting market liquidity and causing declines in Bitcoin and gold [2][9] Group 2 - China's economy showed signs of accelerated weakening in October, with consumption and fixed-asset investment declining, while credit growth also slowed [2][10] - Recent policy signals from the Chinese government remain supportive, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment [2][10] - Capital inflows into Chinese equities continued, with A-share equity ETFs recording a net inflow of RMB 8 billion, indicating ongoing investor interest [3][11] Group 3 - The technology sector has faced pressures due to external factors, including disappointing earnings from major companies and concerns over an "AI bubble" [4][12] - Despite short-term overvaluation in the tech sector, the report suggests that a significant downturn is unlikely without disruptive new technologies [4][12] - The report anticipates that if the tech sector stabilizes, it could lead to a broader market rebound, particularly benefiting underperforming sectors like brokerage firms [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for innovative and reform-oriented approaches to implement proactive fiscal policies, ensuring strong financial support for China's modernization and national rejuvenation efforts [2][5]. Group 1: Implementation of Proactive Fiscal Policies - The Ministry of Finance has maintained a proactive fiscal policy since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with adjustments made according to changing circumstances, including increasing the deficit ratio from 2.7% to 4% [4]. - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, representing a 24% increase compared to the previous five-year period [5]. - Over 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over five years [5]. Group 2: Focus Areas for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan aims to strengthen the domestic market, with fiscal policies focusing on boosting consumption, effective investment, and establishing a unified market [11][12]. - The Ministry plans to enhance consumer spending through subsidies and tax adjustments, while also increasing investment in strategic projects to improve overall productivity [11][12]. - A key goal is to create a fair market environment by reforming tax and fiscal policies to eliminate local protectionism and promote resource allocation efficiency [12]. Group 3: Fiscal Reform and Management - The Ministry of Finance aims to optimize resource allocation and improve fiscal management by implementing zero-based budgeting and enhancing the efficiency of fund usage [16]. - There is a focus on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies to support high-quality development and social fairness [16]. - The Ministry will also work on improving the relationship between central and local finances, increasing local fiscal autonomy while ensuring sustainable debt management [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will maintain an active fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize the economy and ensure people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for sufficient policy strength [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Strategy - The fiscal policy will focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, determining deficit rates and debt levels based on changing circumstances, and utilizing various tools such as budgets, taxes, government bonds, and transfer payments [2][3]. - The emphasis will shift from merely focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to ensure necessary spending levels [3][5]. Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by complex changes in both domestic and international environments, including external instability and internal economic pressures [3]. - Despite challenges, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with significant potential for long-term growth, although risks in certain sectors have not yet cleared [3]. Budget Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure growth rates from 2020 to 2024 are projected at 2.8%, 0.3%, 6.1%, 5.4%, and 3.6%, with a growth rate of 3.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The total budget for 2025 is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan [5]. Debt and Fiscal Space - China's government debt ratio is projected to be 68.7% in 2024, significantly lower than that of major economies and emerging markets, indicating substantial room for further borrowing [5]. - The central government has considerable borrowing and deficit space, allowing for future fiscal policy initiatives [5]. Targeted Support Areas - The fiscal policy will prioritize high-quality development, focusing on key areas such as modern industrial systems, technology, education, social security, agriculture, and environmental protection [5][6]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing support for major national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financing, increasing the proportion of government investment in public services, and supporting high-tech enterprises [5][6]. Policy Coordination - There will be an emphasis on policy coordination, ensuring that fiscal policies align with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to create a synergistic effect for high-quality development [6].

2025.11. 15 他表示，"十五五"时期坚持积极取向，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，根据形势变化，合理确定赤字率和 举债规模，组合运用预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具，用好政策空间，保持支出强度，形成 对经济社会发展的持续支撑。 近期《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议） 对财政工作部署的核心是，"发挥积极财政政策作用，增强财政可持续性"。这与此前几次五年规划聚 焦财税制度改革有显著不同。多名财税专家告诉第一财经，这意味着"十五五"时期中国将继续实施积 极财政政策，而这又跟"十五五"时期宏观经济形势变化直接相关，即未来风险和不确定性增多。 蓝佛安表示，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环 境面临深刻复杂变化。从国际看，外部环境动荡不安，大国博弈更加复杂激烈，单边主义、保护主义 抬头，世界经济增长动能不足。从国内看，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的 支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，同时产业结构、商业模式、人口结构、财富分配等发生显著变化，一些 领域风险尚未出清。 "这些对财政运行、宏观调控、财税改革等产生深 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving China's modernization and economic development, as outlined in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [1]. Group 1: Achievements of Fiscal Policy - Since the new era, China's fiscal policy has been adjusted based on changing circumstances, leading to significant achievements, including a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, totaling over 136 trillion yuan [2]. - More than 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over five years [2]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Fiscal Policy - Emphasis on coordinating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues while enhancing long-term development potential [3]. - Focus on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3]. - Innovation in fiscal tools, such as the use of ultra-long special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policy [3]. - Strengthening policy coordination to ensure alignment with national development plans and enhance the overall effectiveness of fiscal measures [3]. Group 3: Goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for achieving socialist modernization, requiring effective responses to complex domestic and international challenges [4]. - Fiscal policies will focus on providing robust support for key strategic goals, ensuring adequate funding and resource allocation to high-quality development areas [5]. Group 4: Expanding Domestic Demand - The construction of a strong domestic market is a priority, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and effective investment [6]. - Strategies include enhancing consumer spending through subsidies and increasing long-term consumption capacity by improving income levels [6]. - Effective investment will be directed towards strategic projects that enhance overall productivity, with an emphasis on preventing inefficient investments [6]. Group 5: Fiscal Reform and Management - The need for a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between market freedom and effective fiscal regulation [8]. - Focus on optimizing resource allocation and improving fiscal management through zero-based budgeting and enhancing the efficiency of fund usage [9]. - Emphasis on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies to promote high-quality development and social fairness [9].

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，"十五五"时期，我国经济整体上仍处于新旧动能转换期，经济面临 较大的下行压力，积极财政政策是托底宏观经济、稳定发展大局的重要手段。财政政策从过去较多关注 赤字率转向支出增速，打破3%赤字率约束，确保必要的支出力度，增强财政政策的逆周期调节作用。 要保持一定的财政支出增速，根据经济社会发展需要合理确定实际赤字率水平，逐步采用基于全部财政 收支的全口径赤字和赤字率来衡量财政政策积极程度。 "十五五"坚持财政政策积极取向，保持支出强度稳经济 "十五五"时期中国财政政策将继续保持积极取向，并保持一定力度，以稳经济保民生。 近日，财政部部长蓝佛安接受新华社采访，在谈及"十五五"时期发挥积极财政政策作用的考量时，首先 强调的是"力度要给足"。 他表示，"十五五"时期坚持积极取向，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，根据形势变化，合理确定赤字率和举 债规模，组合运用预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具，用好政策空间，保持支出强度，形成对经 济社会发展的持续支撑。 近期《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议）对 财政工作部署的核心是，"发挥积极财政政策作用，增 ...