日本政府和执政党已开始协调2月18日召集举行首相指名选举的特别国会。 复盘此次选举，陈言提到，高市宣布解散议会时，并没有与党内的大佬麻生太郎等人商量，这很容易令 党内对她的评价过低。其次，高市成为首相后，自民党与公明党长达二十多年的执政联盟瓦解了，自民 党长期以来稳定的执政态势随之消失了。第三，新的执政盟友维新会仅是一个大阪地区的政党，不具备 在全日本发挥政治能力与影响的作用。 "综上来看，高市提前大选是一招险棋。"陈言分析道，在这种情况下，日本众议院选举这样的结 果，"超乎了传统的日本政治的运行模式"。 他分析道，其实老一辈的日本有识之士对高市很不感冒，认为她的财政政策、外交政策、国内政治政策 都出乎常规。与此同时，高市的一些政策，如福利发放等获得了一些年轻人的支持，此外，相较于传统 的报纸和电视，高市重视社交媒体，"了解年轻一代人关心政治以及获取信息的途径"。 对于在野党此次的表现，陈言表示，不仅数量多，且内部不团结，比如在电视辩论期间喜欢内斗，而不 是一致针对高市,"高市本人并非无懈可击，比如她与邪教的关系、她的财政政策等都存在很大的问题， 但在野党的内斗就等于拱手把机会让给了自民党。" 据央视新闻报道 ...

【#专家称中日关系或进一步恶化#】#高市早苗扩武强军想拉美国下场#日本30多年来首次在2月隆冬时 节进行的众议院选举8日举行。当天，寒潮和大雪侵袭了日本全国，现任首相高市早苗率领的自民党也 在这场史无前例的选举中创下1955年创党以来的最佳战绩。 "高市会带领日本走上扩武强军道路，外交方面会进一步对中国采取对撞措施，中日关系将进一步恶 化。"上海国际问题研究院东北亚研究中心主任、研究员蔡亮表示，高市继续执政下，日美同盟将更加 紧密，日本会乘机在地区制造紧张，拉美国下场重申对日本的安全承诺，并与所谓"意识形态相近"国家 紧密合作，强化对华遏制。日本还可能加大与全球南方国家的经济合作，平衡中国的影响力。（@北京 日报 记者 白波 实习生 周佳馨；视频：中国新闻网） 接受@北京日报 记者采访的学者表示，高市此次选举大胜在意料之中，预计将继续推行所谓积极的财 政政策、加强技术投资、强化"经济安保"，日本经济的结构性矛盾将对高市政府持续构成挑战。自民党 全面掌握国会运作后，日本在安保领域将更加激进，谋求修改和平宪法，推动强军扩武。中日关系可能 进一步恶化，但美国特朗普政府不愿为高市激进政策买单，将对其强硬外交产生制约。 ...

日本30多年来首次在2月隆冬时节进行的众议院选举8日举行。当天，寒潮和大雪侵袭了日本全国，现任 首相高市早苗率领的自民党也在这场史无前例的选举中创下1955年创党以来的最佳战绩。 日本众议院共有465个议席，开票结果显示，执政联盟中自民党获得316席，日本维新会获得36席，远超 上次选举的191席和38席。 日本宪法规定众议院选举后30天内须召集国会，举行首相指名选举。众议院选举结果意味着高市早苗将 继续担任日本首相。 日本首相 高市早苗 新华社记者 贾浩成摄 接受北京日报客户端记者采访的学者表示，高市此次选举大胜在意料之中，预计将继续推行所谓积极的 财政政策、加强技术投资、强化"经济安保"，日本经济的结构性矛盾将对高市政府持续构成挑战。自民 党全面掌握国会运作后，日本在安保领域将更加激进，谋求修改和平宪法，推动强军扩武。中日关系可 能进一步恶化，但美国特朗普政府不愿为高市激进政策买单，将对其强硬外交产生制约。 高市因何大获全胜？ 高市去年10月初当选自民党总裁后，历经一波三折在10月21日成为日本历史上首位女首相。今年1月19 日，上任不到三个月之际，高市宣布将于23日解散众议院，2月8日举行众议院选举，创 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经东京2月9日电（记者刘春燕李诗萌）日本厚生劳动省9日公布的初步统计结果显示，由于通货 膨胀持续，扣除物价上涨因素后2025年日本人均实际工资比上年减少1.3%，连续4年下降。 报告显示，2025年日本劳动者平均每月名义现金工资为35.5万日元（1美元约合156日元），比上年增加 2.3%。虽然名义工资增加，但由于日本近年来物价持续上涨、去年消费物价涨幅达3.7%，导致实际工 资收入继续呈现下降势头。 此间媒体和专家指出，由于自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟在8日举行的众议院选举中获得过半数 议席，日本首相高市早苗主张的积极财政政策将更加顺利地出台，其政策措施将进一步加剧通胀。在实 际工资水平持续下降的情况下，如果物价不断上涨，消费恐将陷入停滞，日本经济复苏也将因此承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent election results in Japan indicate that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae has maintained control over the House of Representatives, which is expected to influence the financial markets positively, particularly in terms of the yen, Japanese stocks, and bonds [1][2]. Currency Market Impact - Following the election results, the yen experienced a short-term sell-off, dropping approximately 0.3% to 157.76 yen per dollar, marking its lowest level in over two weeks [3]. - The rise of Kishi Sanae as Japan's first female Prime Minister has previously led to significant stock market gains but also substantial sell-offs in Japanese bonds and the yen [2]. Economic Policy Expectations - Kishi has promised to implement aggressive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, raising concerns about potential overspending and increasing Japan's already high debt burden [4]. - Analysts predict that her decisive election victory will likely reinforce expectations for aggressive fiscal policies, leading to further short-term depreciation of the yen [5]. Stock Market Reaction - The Japanese stock market opened significantly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a new historical intraday high, reflecting strong investor confidence in Kishi's government [6][7]. - The recent performance of the Japanese stock market has been bolstered not only by domestic political developments but also by a rebound in U.S. stock markets, which saw significant gains [8]. Bond Market Concerns - The potential for increased government spending under Kishi's administration raises concerns among bond investors, particularly given Japan's already substantial debt load [9]. - Analysts suggest that Kishi's election victory could lead to upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields, as the market anticipates a revival of "Kishi trading" [10]. Balancing Fiscal Policies - Experts believe that Kishi will need to maintain a delicate balance between aggressive fiscal policies and fiscal discipline to manage the rising bond yields effectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming elections in Japan are expected to increase market expectations for government spending, leading to a weaker yen [1] Group 1 - A decisive electoral victory may strengthen market expectations for proactive fiscal policies in the short term, potentially stimulating short-term yen selling [1] - The medium-term outlook for the yen will depend on the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as how the government's fiscal credibility is reflected in term premiums [1]

（来源：上观新闻） 8日，被强行提前举行的日本第51届国会众议院选举在风雪中落幕。 据新华社消息，出口民调结果显示，自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟将获得过半数议席。 上海国际问题研究院资深研究员、上海日本学会顾问吴寄南归结为以下原因和策略。 首先，作为传统大党，自民党根基依然稳固且富有执政经验，获得选民信任。特别是此次保守阶层选民 因对其他政党失望而批量回归，为自民党"输血"。 其次，吸纳在野党减税主张。 为降低民众生活成本，在野党提议两年内将食品消费税归零。自民党将其"归为己有"，导致在野党没有 可替代方案吸引选民。 再次，打"悲情牌"奏效。 作为日本首位女首相，高市在竞选中哽咽落泪、渲染自己"不容易"，引发选民同情。 将胜负线定在233席、誓言不过半即辞职的首相高市早苗豪赌得手，但能否就此高枕无忧？ 何以获胜？ 根据民调结果，在众议院465个席位中，执政联盟料将获得超过300个议席，其中自民党预计将获得超过 270个议席，实现单独过半。 在此之前，自民党一度深陷逆风局：被政治"黑金"、勾连统一教会等丑闻缠绕，先后丢失众参两院多数 席位；失去有着数百万选民基础的传统执政盟友公明党的支持；物价高涨压力下罔顾 ...

本次选举围绕众议院465个议席展开角逐，其中包括289个小选举区议席和176个比例代表选区议席。在 选前势力分布中，自民党与日本维新会共占据232席。 在多重风险叠加之下，尽快通过选举改变局面，被认为是高市押上政治前途的一次"豪赌"： 首先，高市个人丑闻正在持续发酵，去年12月曾因涉嫌违规接受企业政治捐款而遭起诉。 当地时间2月8日7时，日本国会众议院选举投票开始。除部分地区以外，投票将于当天20时结束。投票 结束后将进入计票环节。 此外，高市的执政基础本身也并不稳固。自民党目前在众参两院均未掌握过半数席位，虽与日本维新会 组成执政联盟，但在政策推进过程中需顾及合作协议中的多项约束，客观上限制了其施政空间。 其次，高市在经济和外交领域的政策风险也在逐渐显现。高市主张实施积极财政政策，金融界指出，其 核心做法不过是大量"印钱"并高度依赖发债筹资，这可能推高国债收益率，引发日元贬值并加剧通胀， 甚至对金融市场稳定造成冲击。 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is projected to be 21.6045 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous year [1] - Tax revenue is expected to reach 17.6363 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue is anticipated to decline by 11.3% to 3.9682 trillion yuan [1] - Land transfer revenue is forecasted to be 4.1518 trillion yuan, down 14.7% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Regional Fiscal Data - Some provinces have reported unique trends in their fiscal data for 2025, with Jilin province's non-tax revenue increasing by 25.4% to 63.85 billion yuan and Shaanxi province's non-tax revenue rising by 11.6% to 87.09 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Expenditure Trends - Expenditures related to "people" are increasing, with education spending at 434.17 billion yuan (up 3.2%), social security and employment spending at 444.16 billion yuan (up 6.7%), and health spending at 214.46 billion yuan (up 5.7%) [2] - The overall fiscal policy for 2025 aims to maintain necessary spending levels despite revenue pressures, with a focus on macroeconomic support [2] Group 4: Tax Revenue Composition - In 2025, tax revenue is expected to constitute 81.6% of the general public budget revenue, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from 2024, indicating improved revenue quality [3] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax are showing positive growth rates, with personal income tax growing by 11.5% [3][6] Group 5: Personal Income Tax Insights - The high growth rate of personal income tax at 11.5% is attributed to improved tax administration and an increase in dividend income [6] - The tax authority has intensified scrutiny on high-income individuals, leading to significant recoveries in unpaid personal income tax [6][8] Group 6: International Income Taxation - The tax authority has been focusing on overseas income taxation, with significant amounts being recovered from individuals who failed to report their foreign income [8][9] - The implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) since 2017 has enhanced the tax authority's ability to track overseas financial accounts [8][9] Group 7: Future Tax Administration Trends - It is anticipated that the trend of strengthening the administration of overseas income taxation will continue into 2026, with more rigorous data collection and compliance measures expected [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing focus on the collection of personal income tax on overseas income, predicting that this trend will strengthen in 2026 [14]. Revenue Analysis - In 2025, the national tax revenue reached 176,363 billion yuan, showing a growth of 0.8% compared to the previous year. The main tax categories maintained positive growth, with personal income tax increasing by 11.5% [6][9]. - The structure of general public budget revenue is improving, with tax revenue accounting for 81.6% of the total, up by 2.0 percentage points from 2024, indicating enhanced stability and sustainability of fiscal revenue [6][7]. Expenditure Analysis - Expenditures related to "people" are increasing, with education spending at 43,417 billion yuan (up 3.2%), social security and employment spending at 44,416 billion yuan (up 6.7%), and health spending at 21,446 billion yuan (up 5.7%) [3][7]. - The overall fiscal policy for 2025 is characterized by a commitment to "sustained effort and increased support," with a focus on maintaining necessary spending levels despite revenue pressures [4]. Personal Income Tax Insights - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to improved tax administration and an increase in dividend income. The growth rate of 11.5% is notably higher than that of other major tax categories [9][10]. - The tax authority has intensified its efforts in regulating high-income individuals, with substantial amounts of unpaid personal income tax being collected from various cases [12][13]. Overseas Income Taxation - The article highlights the importance of overseas income taxation, with the tax authority having the capability to track residents' overseas financial accounts since the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) in 2017 [13]. - The trend of strengthening the collection of personal income tax on overseas income is expected to continue into 2026, as the tax authority aims to improve data collection and compliance [14].