Core Viewpoint - The Philippines Trade Secretary, Ramon Lopez, emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to tariffs on sugar and rice, indicating that zero tariffs cannot be implemented for these commodities while also addressing the U.S. request for zero tariffs on all goods [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Policy - The Philippines cannot rely solely on a single market for its trade needs [1] - The U.S. is requesting the Philippines to implement zero tariffs on all its goods [1] - The Philippines aims to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from the current 19% to a lower level [1]

海南省人民政府印发《海南自由贸易港"零关税"进口货物享惠主体认定管理办法(试行)》，旨在做好"零 关税"进口货物享惠主体认定管理工作。根据办法，符合《通知》规定条件的企业、事业单位以及科技 类、教育类民办非企业单位，可自愿申报享惠主体资格。享惠主体名单由海南省人民政府确定，并可根 据需要动态调整。相关部门将通过海南国际贸易"单一窗口"并联审核，确定申报主体是否符合规定条 件。已认定的享惠主体，可依照相关规定，申报享受相关的税收政策。(海南政府) ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure on the tourism market, particularly benefiting companies in the duty-free industry and related sectors [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - China Duty Free Group (China CDF) saw its A-share price hit a new high of 70.84 CNY per share, reaching the daily limit on July 24, 2023 [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, the company's stock rose over 19%, closing at 64.4 HKD per share, marking its best performance since October 2024 [2]. - The stock market activity was driven by the release of policy benefits, with various stocks in the Hainan Free Trade Zone and duty-free sectors experiencing significant gains [2]. Group 2: Policy Details - The closure will implement a "zero tariff" policy, increasing the proportion of zero-tariff goods from 21% to 74% for imports [4]. - Trade management measures will be relaxed, allowing for the import of previously restricted goods [4]. - The closure aims to enhance the efficiency of customs supervision, ensuring smooth implementation of the new policies [4]. Group 3: Tourism Market Potential - Hainan is expected to attract 97.2 million domestic and international tourists in 2024, an 8% increase from the previous year, with a significant rise in inbound tourists [5][6]. - The provincial government is actively working to establish Hainan as an international tourism consumption center, leveraging the opportunities presented by the closure [5][6]. - Experts predict that the closure will enhance Hainan's tourism appeal through expanded visa-free entry and optimized duty-free shopping policies, attracting more international visitors [6].

Group 1 - Li Auto has completed the adjustment of payment terms for direct suppliers to 60 days, with monthly payments made twice [1] - China Resources Group reported a revenue of 437.6 billion yuan and a profit of 47.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, achieving double growth [1] Group 2 - Beijing will distribute 10 million yuan in movie viewing subsidies to stimulate urban consumption during the summer and National Day periods [2][3] - The range of "zero tariff" goods in Hainan Free Trade Port will expand to approximately 6,600 tax items, increasing coverage by nearly 53 percentage points [4] Group 3 - The Jiangxi Jingdezhen Taoyangli Scenic Area has opened its pedestrian street for free after criticism regarding its charging practices [5][6] - The ticket prices for the National Games in Hong Kong are expected to range from approximately 50 to 500 HKD, aiming to attract more spectators [7] Group 4 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, inviting major enterprises to discuss industry challenges and solutions [8] - ZhiYuan has launched its quadruped robot D1 ULTRA, designed for special applications, security inspections, and educational purposes [9][10] Group 5 - Aniplex reported that the new film "Demon Slayer" achieved a record box office of 5.52 billion yen in its first three days, surpassing previous records [11] - Taobao Flash Sale denied rumors regarding internal expert interviews and stated that all operational strategies follow normal business practices [12] Group 6 - The China Ride-Hailing Association issued an apology for misleading information regarding the ban on fuel vehicles in Beijing's ride-hailing platforms [13] - The commercial insurance premium for new energy vehicles exceeded 66.17 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of over 41% [14]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of tax exemption policies in Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to significantly boost various industries, with a focus on zero tariffs and enhanced trade facilitation [1] Industry Analysis - **Duty-Free Retail**: The expansion of duty-free policies post-closure will lead to growth in the duty-free retail sector as the range of duty-free products increases [2] - **Tourism and Hospitality**: The favorable policies are anticipated to attract more tourists to Hainan, thereby stimulating the local tourism and hotel industries [3] - **Port and Shipping**: The increased trade facilitation after the closure is expected to enhance port logistics business [4] - **Pharmaceutical Manufacturing**: As a key encouraged industry, pharmaceutical companies will benefit from tax exemptions related to processing and value addition [5] - **High-Tech Industry**: The focus on developing high-tech industries in the free trade port will provide multiple policy benefits to related companies [6] Beneficiary Companies - **China Duty Free Group (601888)**: As a leader in the duty-free industry, the company will directly benefit from the upgraded duty-free policies [7] - **Hainan Airport (600515)**: Being a key transportation hub, the company is expected to benefit from increased passenger and logistics flow [8] - **Strait Shipping (002320)**: As a leader in waterway transportation in Hainan, the company will benefit from enhanced trade facilitation [9] - **Hainan Haiyao (000566)**: The local pharmaceutical leader will enjoy the benefits of tax exemptions for processing and value addition [10] - **Hainan Shipping Group (603069)**: The company will benefit from the growth in the tourism industry [10]

Market Overview - On July 24, stocks related to Hainan and duty-free concepts experienced significant gains, with multiple companies hitting the daily limit, including Caesar Travel, Haixia Co., China Duty Free Group, and others [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Port index rose by 8.81% [2] Event: Hainan's Customs Closure Launch - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its customs closure on December 18, 2025, establishing the entire island as a special customs supervision area [3] - New policies will be implemented upon the closure, including an increase in the proportion of "zero tariff" goods from 21% to 74% [3] Institutional Analysis - The coverage of "zero tariff" goods will expand significantly from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, representing a 53 percentage point increase [4] - The beneficiaries of the "zero tariff" policy will now include various enterprises and non-profit organizations with actual import needs, broadening the scope of the policy [4] - Restrictions on the flow of imported "zero tariff" goods will be relaxed, allowing free movement among beneficiaries, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of local industries [4] - The efficient management model and diverse consumer market in Hainan are anticipated to boost tourism, with the tourism industry expected to benefit from policy incentives [4] - The demand for professional tour guide services and one-stop solutions for international tourists is expected to rise, benefiting travel agencies involved in cross-border tourism [5] - The independent nature of the duty-free policy is likely to remain, with expectations of increased consumption post-closure, aiming for over 60 billion yuan in sales by 2027 [5]

2025年07月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 6 | | 铅：等待供需矛盾发酵，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：回归基本面 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：继续震荡 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 24 日 产 业 服 务 研 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | ...

Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port Launch - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start customs closure on December 18, 2023, establishing the entire island as a customs supervision special zone with liberalization policies [2] - Yangpu Port, as a key infrastructure, is expected to achieve a container throughput of 5 million TEUs this year after the customs closure project is operational [2] - Six customs closure projects at Yangpu Port are currently in full debugging phase to ensure smooth operations post-closure [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - By July 2025, Hainan will have completed 121 customs closure hardware projects covering ports, parks, and transportation networks [3] - Eight "first-line ports" and ten "second-line ports" have basic infrastructure and inspection facilities ready, with ten second-line port information projects in trial operation [3] Group 3: Tax Policies and Business Opportunities - Since the implementation of the Hainan Free Trade Port policy, zero tariffs and tax exemptions for processing and value-added goods have attracted numerous enterprises to the region [4] - Hainan has seen over 100 billion yuan in value for goods benefiting from processing and value-added tax exemptions, resulting in approximately 8.4 billion yuan in tax savings [5] - The list of zero-tariff items has expanded significantly, with 653 items for raw materials and 122 items for transportation tools and yachts [5] Group 4: Foreign Investment and Education - Hainan is actively expanding its investment openness, with 176 countries and regions now investing in the area [6] - The Lingshui Li'an International Education Innovation Pilot Zone allows domestic and foreign students to share resources and courses, attracting around 5,000 students [6] - The region has opened over 330 multifunctional free trade accounts and has established 77 international air routes, enhancing cross-border capital flow [6]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port, with its full closure set for December 18, 2025, is expected to significantly impact the cosmetics industry by expanding the range of zero-tariff products and enhancing the operational environment for international beauty brands [1][12][14]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The zero-tariff product range will expand from approximately 1,900 to about 6,600 tax items, increasing the proportion of zero-tariff products to 74%, a rise of nearly 53 percentage points [6][10]. - The "one line" and "two lines" regulatory framework will allow for free flow of goods, capital, and personnel within Hainan, while controlling the flow of goods to mainland China [4][5][10]. - Consumers in Hainan will be exempt from import tariffs but will still need to pay consumption tax and value-added tax, with the possibility of full tax exemption for purchases within the duty-free limit [6][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Hainan has been a key market for luxury and beauty products, with 2023 imports of beauty and skincare products reaching 16.678 billion yuan [12]. - Major international brands like L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Shiseido have established a strong presence in Hainan, viewing it as a strategic market for growth [14][15][20]. - The competitive landscape may shift as both international and domestic beauty brands vie for market share in Hainan's duty-free environment, potentially benefiting local brands [21][22]. Group 3: Business Opportunities - The reduction in operational costs due to zero tariffs is expected to enhance profit margins for international beauty brands, making Hainan an attractive location for investment [14][20]. - Local companies, such as Jingrun Pearl, are already capitalizing on the new policies, with significant cost savings projected from the import and processing of goods [10][11]. - The anticipated influx of foreign investment and talent into Hainan is expected to further stimulate the cosmetics market and enhance its global competitiveness [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date on December 18, 2025, marks a significant milestone in China's commitment to further opening up its economy and enhancing the attractiveness of Hainan as a global investment destination [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Closure on Hainan Free Trade Port - The closure will transform Hainan into a "domestic outside" area, allowing for "zero tariffs" and other preferential policies, signaling China's determination for openness [3]. - The closure is a phased approach, maintaining the overall logic of "first line" opening, "second line" monitoring, and free internal systems [3]. - The customs will implement precise regulation with lower intervention, indicating a significant change in regulatory practices [3]. Group 2: Flow of Capital, Talent, and Data - Cross-border capital flow will rely on multi-functional free trade accounts, while talent movement will be facilitated by visa-free policies [4]. - Data flow will be managed through a list-based approach, allowing for cross-border interaction, enhancing the business environment for domestic and international entrepreneurs [4]. - The "zero tariff" and processing value-added tax exemption policies are expected to attract manufacturing industries, although Hainan may not be suitable for long industrial chains in the short term [4]. Group 3: Development of Key Industries - The four main industries in Hainan—tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture—account for 67% of the province's GDP [5]. - Hainan has advantages in deep-sea technology, particularly in deep-sea exploration, but should focus on local assembly and testing rather than the entire industrial chain [5]. - Hainan is better suited for specific high-tech industries like deep-sea technology and biomedicine, rather than long industrial chains [5]. Group 4: Expansion of Zero Tariff Products - The range of "zero tariff" products is expected to expand from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering about 74% of all product categories [6]. - Further expansion of the tariff list will depend on policy implementation and subsequent risk assessments, particularly in the service trade sector [6]. Group 5: Consumer Attraction and Market Expectations - The increase in "zero tariff" products is likely to boost consumer spending in Hainan, although high-end luxury goods will still be subject to offshore duty-free policies [7]. - The combination of offshore duty-free and "zero tariff" policies is expected to significantly enhance consumer activity in Hainan [7]. - There are expectations for greater initiatives in trade facilitation and the development of high-end services, including technology research, high-end healthcare, and modern finance [8].