据美国方面16日消息，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特表示，他预期司法部对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的刑事调查"不会有实质性结 果"，因为他相信鲍威尔先前就美联储办公楼翻新项目所作证词属实。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特（资料图） 哈西特当天表示，他希望美联储在向国会作证时能"更加透明"。哈西特同时声称，如果自己是美联储主席，会"坚持透明度"，并可能"会马上回答这些问 题"。 据悉，美联储办公楼翻新项目2017年获批，2022年启动翻新工程，预算从最初19亿美元增至近25亿美元。美国总统特朗普称这一工程实际耗资达31亿美 元，并指控项目存在豪华装修等问题。美联储否认相关指控，称额外支出主要源于劳动力和材料成本上涨，以及清除原建筑所用的石棉材料等。 编辑 | 杨家瑞 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔（资料图） 自2025年初重返白宫以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储大幅降息，希望借此提振经济并降低政府债务成本。因不满美联储未能积极配合，特朗普多次要求鲍 威尔辞职。鲍威尔的任期将于今年5月结束。 鲍威尔11日晚些时候称，美国司法部已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett anticipates that the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not yield substantial results, as he believes Powell's previous testimony regarding the Fed's building renovation project is truthful [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Renovation Project - The renovation project for the Federal Reserve building was approved in 2017 and commenced in 2022, with the budget increasing from an initial $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [1]. - Former President Trump claims the actual cost of the project reached $3.1 billion, alleging issues related to luxury renovations [1]. - The Federal Reserve denies these allegations, stating that the additional expenses are primarily due to rising labor and material costs, as well as the removal of asbestos from the original structure [1]. Group 2: Political Context and Implications - Trump has been urging the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates to boost the economy and reduce government debt costs since returning to the White House in early 2025 [4]. - Powell's term is set to end in May of this year, and he has faced pressure from Trump to resign due to dissatisfaction with the Fed's actions [4]. - The DOJ served a subpoena to the Federal Reserve on the 9th, threatening criminal charges against Powell regarding his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025, focusing on the cost overruns of the renovation project [4]. - This investigation has drawn criticism from various parties, including several Republican lawmakers, who view it as an attempt to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [4]. - Hassett was previously considered a strong candidate to succeed Powell, but Trump indicated a preference for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than nominate him as the next Fed chair [4].

这一反击在共和党内部引发共鸣，似乎正在变成向白宫传递了清晰信号：若不终止调查，下一任美联储 主席提名人的确认程序将面临巨大阻力。 调查鲍威尔：政治反噬与"找个台阶下" 针对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，似乎正在演变成一场对特朗普政府的政治反噬。 面对压力，特朗普的核心幕僚开始尝试"找个台阶下"。 上周五，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在福克斯商业频道试图淡化事态，称这只是"简单的信息 索取"，暗示一旦信息提交，此事便可翻篇。 围绕美联储的各种斗争，终于迎来了终局时刻。 随着针对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查引发政治反噬，以及下周三最高法院即将审理的关键案件，围绕美 联储的种种权力博弈可能都会在下周决出胜负。 上周末，美国检察官就美联储大楼装修费用向鲍威尔发出传票。1月11日，鲍威尔罕见地发表强硬声 明，痛斥此举是破坏央行独立性的借口。 目前，最高法院发出的信号倾向于保护库克，但在周三的庭审中，任何立场的摇摆都可能引发市场的剧 烈震荡。 谁来掌舵："两个凯文"or另有他人？ 财政部长斯科特·贝森特随后附和，暗示只要检察官珍妮·皮罗得到"满意的答复"，此事便可翻篇。 这种态度转变背后的逻辑显而易见：特朗普需要维持"未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is perceived globally as an attempt by the Trump administration to seize control over monetary policy, potentially undermining investor confidence in the U.S. financial system and the dollar [1] Group 1: Impact on the Dollar - The attractiveness of holding the dollar as a safe asset is declining due to actions that are seen as damaging to the institutional framework of the U.S. [1] - The dominance of the dollar is partly attributed to its stable political environment and robust treasury market [1] Group 2: Consequences of Central Bank Independence - If the independence of the central bank is compromised, it could lead to uncontrolled inflation, which may weaken the credibility of dollar-denominated assets [1] - The internationalization of other currencies is gaining new policy significance as a result of these developments [1]

一场风暴正在华盛顿悄悄酝酿，而且不是那种雷声大雨点小的政治口水仗，而是真正能掀翻全球金融棋盘的硬碰硬对决。 白宫和美联储之间那层薄薄的窗户纸，终于被特朗普政府撕开了——表面看，是因为美联储总部大楼翻修花了太多钱；实际上呢？这根本就是一场关于"谁 说了算"的权力摊牌。 你可能会问：不就是盖个楼超了点预算吗，至于闹到刑事调查的地步？ 嘿，别天真了。 这事要是真那么简单，鲍威尔也不会在2026年1月直接对着镜头说："这都是借口！" 他这句话一出口，等于把白宫藏在西装口袋里的底牌全抖了出来。 美国司法部突然对美联储主席启动刑事调查，理由是大楼装修超标，可全世界都看得明白：真正让特朗普坐不住的，是美联储不肯按他的节奏降息。 要知道，美联储的独立性可不是写在宪法里的装饰品，而是过去几十年美元霸权最核心的信用支柱之一。 它之所以能成为全球资产定价的锚，靠的就是"不听总统指挥"这个硬气劲儿。 现在好了，特朗普政府直接动用联邦检察官办公室发大陪审团传票，把专业审计问题硬生生变成政治追责，这不是试探，这是明抢。 更讽刺的是，就在鲍威尔发表视频声明的同一天，特朗普接受采访时却轻描淡写地说自己对调查"一无所知"，转头又补了一句："鲍 ...

围绕美联储的各种斗争，终于迎来了终局时刻。 随着针对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查引发政治反噬，以及下周三最高法院即将审理的关键案件，围绕美 联储的种种权力博弈可能都会在下周决出胜负。 调查鲍威尔：政治反噬与"找个台阶下" 针对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，似乎正在演变成一场对特朗普政府的政治反噬。 上周末，美国检察官就美联储大楼装修费用向鲍威尔发出传票。1月11日，鲍威尔罕见地发表强硬声 明，痛斥此举是破坏央行独立性的借口。 这一反击在共和党内部引发共鸣，似乎正在变成向白宫传递了清晰信号：若不终止调查，下一任美联储 主席提名人的确认程序将面临巨大阻力。 面对压力，特朗普的核心幕僚开始尝试"找个台阶下"。 上周五，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在福克斯商业频道试图淡化事态，称这只是"简单的信息 索取"，暗示一旦信息提交，此事便可翻篇。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特随后附和，暗示只要检察官珍妮·皮罗得到"满意的答复"，此事便可翻篇。 这种态度转变背后的逻辑显而易见：特朗普需要维持"未下令调查"的推诿空间，而悄然结案或是最佳路 径，也更符合下一任美联储主席的利益—— 与此同时，关于下一任美联储主席的提名人选，可能也将在下周 ...

知情人士透露，随着美国总统唐纳德・特朗普力求为美联储挑选一位立场亲和的主席人选，同时权衡此 举可能引发的国会反对声浪，贝莱德集团的里克・里德竞选下一任美联储主席的呼声近期持续走高。 这些匿名知情人士就这场内部人事磋商表示，特朗普于周四与里德进行了会面，且会面进展十分顺利。 美国参议院银行委员会共和党籍成员汤姆・蒂利斯等关键参议员已发出警告，称继美国司法部上周就美 联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔就美联储总部翻新项目发表的相关言论对美联储发出传票后，特朗普提名的美 联储人选将受到更严格的审查。鲍威尔的任期将于今年 5 月届满，他声称这项刑事调查实则是一个借 口，目的是惩罚他未能尽快降息。 特朗普于周五被问及主席人选遴选进程时表示，他心中已有中意人选，但拒绝透露具体姓名。他 称："我认为我已经确定了 —— 人选就在我心里。" 部分知情人士称，目前美联储主席人选已形成四人角逐的局面，候选人分别是里德、美国国家经济委员 会主任凯文・哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒以及前美联储理事凯文・沃尔什。 哈塞特曾是早期的领跑者，这一态势一直持续到本周 —— 特朗普称他或许不愿让哈塞特离开当前岗 位。目前尚不清楚这番话是暗示内部磋商方向 ...

Group 1 - The global financial system is undergoing unprecedented transformation, with power struggles occurring across various regions including the US, Europe, China, and the Middle East [1] - The US fiscal deficit reached a staggering $145 billion in December 2025, marking a 67% increase year-over-year and setting a historical high [2] - Trump's aggressive stance against Powell and the Federal Reserve has escalated tensions, with accusations that the Fed's policies have worsened the fiscal situation [2] Group 2 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the US government is complex, with significant policy disagreements emerging, particularly regarding interest rates [3] - A rare joint statement from central bank leaders of eight countries supporting Powell's independence highlights the global implications of US monetary policy [3] - China's significant reduction of US Treasury holdings from $1.2 trillion to $688.7 billion signals a strategic shift in response to US economic uncertainties [5] Group 3 - The volatility in the US Treasury market, with ten-year bond yields fluctuating dramatically, reflects investor concerns about US financial stability [8] - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining trust in the US financial system, and any challenge to this independence could have severe consequences [7] - The ongoing power struggle between Trump and Powell raises questions about the resilience of the US constitutional system and the future of the Federal Reserve's autonomy [15] Group 4 - The international financial landscape is shifting, with countries diversifying their asset allocations to reduce reliance on the US dollar [11] - China's strategy of reducing US debt while increasing gold reserves and promoting the internationalization of the yuan is a proactive response to global economic uncertainties [13] - The future of the financial landscape remains uncertain, with various forces at play and no clear predictions available [15]

据美国媒体先前报道，美联储办公楼翻新项目2017年获批，2022年启动翻新工程，预算从最初19亿美元 增至近25亿美元。美国总统特朗普称这一工程实际耗资达31亿美元，并指控项目存在豪华装修等问题。 美联储否认相关指控，称额外支出主要源于劳动力和材料成本上涨，以及清除原建筑所用的石棉材料 等。 自2025年初重返白宫以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储大幅降息，希望借此提振经济并降低政府债务成本。 因不满美联储未能积极配合，特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。鲍威尔的任期将于今年5月结束。 鲍威尔11日晚些时候在美联储网站发表声明说，美国司法部已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他2025 年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼。调查主要聚焦于美联储办公楼翻新项目的成本超支 问题，检方怀疑鲍威尔在作证时"撒谎"。此举遭到包括多名共和党议员在内的各方批评，认为是试图损 害美联储独立性。 白宫经济顾问：调查鲍威尔"不会有啥结果" 刘江 英国《卫报》16日报道，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特表示，他预期司法部对美国联邦储 备委员会主席鲍威尔的刑事调查"不会有实质性结果"，因为他相信鲍威尔先前就美联储办公楼翻新项目 所作证词属实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken an unexpected turn, shifting from a seemingly certain outcome to a state of suspense, primarily influenced by President Trump's recent comments regarding potential candidates [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Hassett was previously considered the frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with a probability of 85% for nomination [5]. - Trump's preference for Hassett was based on his ability to articulate economic policies effectively, which he believed was necessary for his administration [6]. - The shift in Trump's stance appears to stem from a desire to retain Hassett in his current role, as he values having a close ally who can defend his economic policies publicly [7]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Rise - Kevin Walsh's likelihood of being nominated has surged from approximately 40% to 60%, while Hassett's chances have dropped to 15% [10]. - Walsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and a more focused approach to inflation control [10][12]. - His views align with Trump's criticisms of the current Fed leadership, suggesting a potential shift towards a more aggressive monetary policy if Walsh is appointed [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement of Hassett's potential retention led to a significant market reaction, with the dollar index rising by 20 points and precious metals like gold and silver experiencing sharp declines [2][13]. - The market interprets Walsh's potential nomination as a signal for a quicker tightening of monetary policy, which could lead to increased capital inflows into the dollar and a retreat from riskier assets [13]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Concerns are growing regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid Trump's public pressure on current Chair Powell and the potential influence of Walsh if appointed [15]. - Global financial institutions, including the IMF and various rating agencies, have expressed worries about political interference in the Fed, emphasizing the importance of its independence for maintaining U.S. credit ratings [15]. - The situation reflects a broader shift in monetary policy dynamics, with implications for investment strategies moving forward [17].