【导读】史诗级暴跌，黄金白银还在崩 中国基金报记者泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，史诗级暴跌。1月30日傍晚，黄金、白银价格的崩盘还在加速，白银现货价格跌幅已经 超过10%，黄金暴跌5%左右。 有分析称，这轮暴跌的触发点，可能是市场传闻美联储可能迎来立场更偏鹰派的新主席。 KCM首席交易分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示："潜在的、没那么鸽派的美联储主席人选、美元反弹，以及黄金 在超买状态下出现回吐，共同促成了贵金属价格的回落。" 美国总统特朗普周四表示，他计划在周五宣布接替美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的人选。市场猜测不断升 温，认为前美联储理事凯文·沃什获得提名的可能性很大。 StoneX资深分析师马特·辛普森称："有关凯文·沃什将取代鲍威尔出任美联储主席的传闻，令亚洲时段的 金价承压。" 美元从多年低位回升，部分受到美联储周三维持利率不变决定的支撑，但美元仍可能连续第二周下跌。 美元走强会使以美元计价的黄金对海外买家而言更贵。市场仍预计2026年将降息两次。 （文章来源：中国基金报） ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 想不出标题了 【导读】史诗级暴跌，黄金白银还在崩 来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，史诗级暴跌。1月30日傍晚，黄金、白银价格的崩盘还在加速，白银现货价格跌幅已经 超过10%，黄金暴跌5%左右。 有分析称，这轮暴跌的触发点，可能是市场传闻美联储可能迎来立场更偏鹰派的新主席。 KCM首席交易分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示："潜在的、没那么鸽派的美联储主席人选、美元反弹，以及黄金 在超买状态下出现回吐，共同促成了贵金属价格的回落。" 美国总统特朗普周四表示，他计划在周五宣布接替美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的人选。市场猜测不断升 温，认为前美联储理事凯文·沃什获得提名的可能性很大。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 想不出标题了 【导读】史诗级暴跌，黄金白银还在崩 来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，史诗级暴跌。1月30日傍晚，黄金、白银价格的崩盘还在加速，白银现货价格跌幅已经 超过10%，黄金暴跌5%左右。 StoneX资深分析师马特·辛普森称："有关凯文·沃什将取代鲍威尔出任美联储主席的传闻， ...

【导读】史诗级暴跌，黄金白银还在崩 兄弟姐妹们啊，史诗级暴跌。1月30日傍晚，黄金、白银价格的崩盘还在加速，白银现货价格跌幅已经 超过10%，黄金暴跌5%左右。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 来源：中国基金报 有分析称，这轮暴跌的触发点，可能是市场传闻美联储可能迎来立场更偏鹰派的新主席。 KCM首席交易分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示："潜在的、没那么鸽派的美联储主席人选、美元反弹，以及黄金 在超买状态下出现回吐，共同促成了贵金属价格的回落。" 美国总统特朗普周四表示，他计划在周五宣布接替美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的人选。市场猜测不断升 温，认为前美联储理事凯文·沃什获得提名的可能性很大。 StoneX资深分析师马特·辛普森称："有关凯文·沃什将取代鲍威尔出任美联储主席的传闻，令亚洲时段的 金价承压。" 美元从多年低位回升，部分受到美联储周三维持利率不变决定的支撑，但美元仍可能连续第二周下跌。 美元走强会使以美元计价的黄金对海外买家而言更贵。市场仍预计2026年将降息两次。 责任编辑：杨红卜 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Political Landscape - Trump's stance on the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair has changed, with Waller becoming the candidate with the highest probability of being elected [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish tone, indicating a potential pause in interest rate cuts in January [1] Group 2: Global Market Performance - Commodities performed well during the week of January 12-16, 2026, with oil and gold prices rising due to heightened tensions with Iran, although prices later retreated following Trump's more conciliatory remarks [2] - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.4%, while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng indices rose by 3.8% and 2.3%, respectively [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price rose by 0.3% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remained moderate in December, with a weak performance in goods and strong performance in services [3] - Retail sales in November showed resilience, and December saw a rebound in existing home sales [3] - Industrial production growth in December maintained a high level, with an increase in capacity utilization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken an unexpected turn, shifting from a seemingly certain outcome to a state of suspense, primarily influenced by President Trump's recent comments regarding potential candidates [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Hassett was previously considered the frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with a probability of 85% for nomination [5]. - Trump's preference for Hassett was based on his ability to articulate economic policies effectively, which he believed was necessary for his administration [6]. - The shift in Trump's stance appears to stem from a desire to retain Hassett in his current role, as he values having a close ally who can defend his economic policies publicly [7]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Rise - Kevin Walsh's likelihood of being nominated has surged from approximately 40% to 60%, while Hassett's chances have dropped to 15% [10]. - Walsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and a more focused approach to inflation control [10][12]. - His views align with Trump's criticisms of the current Fed leadership, suggesting a potential shift towards a more aggressive monetary policy if Walsh is appointed [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement of Hassett's potential retention led to a significant market reaction, with the dollar index rising by 20 points and precious metals like gold and silver experiencing sharp declines [2][13]. - The market interprets Walsh's potential nomination as a signal for a quicker tightening of monetary policy, which could lead to increased capital inflows into the dollar and a retreat from riskier assets [13]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Concerns are growing regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid Trump's public pressure on current Chair Powell and the potential influence of Walsh if appointed [15]. - Global financial institutions, including the IMF and various rating agencies, have expressed worries about political interference in the Fed, emphasizing the importance of its independence for maintaining U.S. credit ratings [15]. - The situation reflects a broader shift in monetary policy dynamics, with implications for investment strategies moving forward [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed chairperson selection may be announced soon, which will determine market expectations for next year's interest rate cuts. Tight liquidity in the US at the end of the year is negative for gold, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts, but the easing cycle continues. The market expects a pause in January, so silver may reach a phased top and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. - Macro - policies will maintain a "double - loose" tone in 2026, which boosts market sentiment and supports steel prices. However, the steel market is in a weak balance, and short - term steel prices may oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron ore supply is relatively stable, and demand is gradually stabilizing. With port inventories accumulating and strong upstream - downstream gaming, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with upstream inventory pressure capping prices. In the medium term, prices will oscillate around cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs is abundant, and short - term pig prices will continue to rebound and adjust [5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are strong. Market expectations of reduced production and import profit inversion support palm oil prices, which are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - The spot price of soybean meal has a clear bottom support, while the main contract is suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as they seek a new balance between "real - world pressure" and "long - term narratives" [8]. - Oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors and should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA supply has not fully recovered, and there is no inventory - building pressure in January. A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term, considering factors such as production and demand [11]. - Long - term government bonds should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and the relationship between the stock and bond markets [11]. - Methanol supply and demand remain weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with prices expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed chairperson news and year - end liquidity affect it. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Silver**: Fed meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts. It may reach a phased top, and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. Metals - **Steel**: Macro - policies support prices, but the market is in a weak balance, and short - term prices will oscillate narrowly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is stable, demand is stabilizing, and prices will oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Supply - demand is loose, and prices will oscillate around cost in the medium term [5]. - **Copper**: Prices will maintain a high - level oscillation as they balance short - term and long - term factors [8]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Overall supply is abundant, and short - term prices will rebound and adjust [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Exports to the US are strong, and prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Spot has bottom support, and the 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by supply - demand and geopolitics, prices should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - **PTA**: Supply has not fully recovered, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices will oscillate in the short term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with short - term price oscillation expected [13]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to supply, demand, and cost factors [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: An oscillatory mindset is recommended, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and market relationships [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his intention to select a new candidate for the position before Powell's term ends in May next year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has interviewed several candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman position [1] - Trump expressed strong discontent with Jerome Powell, labeling his performance as poor and criticizing his interest rate decisions [1] - Trump referred to Powell as "Mr. Too Late," indicating his belief that Powell's actions have hindered economic success [1]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed a strong stance on monetary policy, advocating for a 1% interest rate cut to reduce government debt interest payments, highlighting the importance of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] - The latest inflation data showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase, with the core CPI rising only 0.1% from April and maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, the slowest since spring 2021 [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra attributed the slowing inflation to Trump's policies, emphasizing that the current administration's actions have significantly improved inflation rates after four years of rising prices [3] Group 2 - Speculation regarding the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair is influencing market sentiment, with Trump indicating he will soon announce a successor to Powell [4] - Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones suggested that Trump may appoint a "super dove" to lead the Federal Reserve, with Becerra being a strong candidate due to Trump's focus on economic growth and loyalty [4] - The interplay between Trump's interest rate cut advocacy, inflation data interpretation, and Federal Reserve Chair speculation reflects the complex dynamics of U.S. economic policy, which is closely monitored by investors and the public [4]

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve Chairman will be announced soon, emphasizing that a good Chairman should lower interest rates [1] - Trump suggested that the Federal Reserve should reduce interest rates by a full percentage point, criticizing current Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow to act on lowering borrowing costs [1] - Trump's comments and actions have led to speculation about the potential replacement of Powell, with Kevin Warsh being a favored candidate for the position [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns have arisen regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell and the potential for a leadership change may undermine future monetary policy effectiveness [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs has increased worries among Federal Reserve officials about persistent inflation, which has contributed to Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates [2] - Financial analysts have suggested that Powell may face significant challenges, including the possibility of being directly dismissed or having his authority undermined by a new appointee [2]