几天后，特朗普直接对巴西宣布加征50%的关税，解释道："金砖国家本身并不是威胁，但他们正在削弱美元的主导地位，试图推动新的国际货币规则。如 果美元失去全球储备货币的地位，美国将遭遇巨大的损失。我作为总统，必须维护美元在全球的主导地位，这绝不会在我的任内发生。" 普京为何在"去美元化"问题上改口，俄罗斯在关键时刻为何选择退缩？ 近期，俄罗斯总统普京在"瓦尔代"国际辩论俱乐部的讲话中指出，俄罗斯并没有实施"去美元化"政策，也没有组织相关运动。他解释道，俄罗斯并非主动放 弃美元，而是因为"在国际上无法使用美元支付"，因此才选择使用本国货币进行交易。 他进一步回应了特朗普关于金砖国家"去美元化"的指控，强调金砖国家的政策仅与其自身成员国相关，不会对任何第三方施加此类措施。普京明确表 示："我们没有反美元的政策，也没有去美元的运动。我们完全没有！我们只是被阻止使用美元，因此只能转向本国货币。" 从中可以看出，尽管美俄关系僵局重重，普京并不希望在这个问题上与特朗普产生直接冲突，特别是在当前美国对俄罗斯的制裁背景下。普京深知"去美元 化"是特朗普非常敏感的外交议题之一，因此在公开讲话时选择了尽量避免激怒特朗普，为日后可能的 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the "Genius Act" aims to maintain the dominance of the US dollar, with a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points by mid-2024, bringing rates down to around 3% [2] - The current economic conditions may lead to a decline in demand for US dollars and US Treasury bonds, resulting in dollar depreciation [2] Group 2 - Citadel's founder anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once or twice more in 2025 due to concerns about the labor market [4] - The number of new jobs is declining, which could hinder the ability to create new employment opportunities without immigration [4] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market may lead to further rate cuts as economic conditions evolve [4] Group 3 - Panmure Liberum warns that rising long-term US Treasury yields could delay the investment boom in artificial intelligence [3] - Higher yields increase debt costs, making some investment projects unprofitable, with a 1% rise in yields potentially reducing IT equipment investment growth by 0.6% [3] - The current high valuations may lead to downward adjustments in earnings forecasts for large tech companies and growth stocks [3] Group 4 - Citic Securities expects the weakness of the US dollar to persist at least through 2025 due to narrowing monetary policy differentials and slowing economic momentum [6] - The domestic dairy industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by deep processing and increased capacity, with a projected demand exceeding 26 billion yuan [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from lower milk prices and a focus on domestic supply chain innovation [6] Group 5 - The gaming industry is experiencing an upswing due to the approval of new game licenses, with 145 domestic and 11 imported licenses issued in September 2025 [8] - The stable supply of licenses is expected to enhance short-term industry sentiment and support long-term product development [8] - Companies focusing on AI and IP commercialization trends are recommended for potential performance improvements [8]

邢自强表示，我们长期看空美元。"当美国实际利率下降时，其与其他主要经济体的利差将会缩小，甚至可能低于这些经济体的利率。这将可能削弱全球资 本对美元和美债的需求，导致美元贬值，并加剧美债市场的波动性"，邢自强解释道。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席本次论坛并发表主题演讲。邢自强指出："美国推出的'天才法案'，本质上反映了美国想让支付基础设施数字化阶 段依然维持美元的主导。" 邢自强认为，短期来看美元稳定币法案可能进一步强化美元国际地位，但这反而可能进一步暴露全球支付体系过于依赖美元的单点风险。这促使中国等众多 国家开始研究如何摆脱对美元的单一依赖，构建多币种、多轨道的支付结算体系，因此对稳定币等新技术产生浓厚兴趣。 邢自强分析，美联储已开启降息周期，预计到明年上半年累计降息幅度125个基点，利率将降至3%左右。与此同时，美国通胀因劳动力短缺和进口价格上涨 可能保持高位，导致实际利率较快下降。 凤凰网财经讯9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英， 共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新 ...

贝莱德策略师：稳定币监管法规可能支撑美元 金十数据7月29日讯，贝莱德策略师在一份报告中表示，美国最新出台的稳定币监管立法可能有利于加 强美元的主导地位。本月早些时候，美国总统特朗普签署了《Genius法案》，该法案旨在为稳定币建立 监管框架。策略师指出："这项法规有望通过打造一个基于代币化美元的国际支付生态系统，进一步巩 固美元的主导地位。"策略师还指出，对于新兴市场用户来说，稳定币相比本国波动剧烈的货币，将提 供一种更便捷的美元获取方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The early dominance of the US dollar in stablecoins provides advantages to the US, potentially increasing borrowing costs in Europe, undermining the European Central Bank's autonomy, and heightening dependence on the US [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's leading position in stablecoins is highlighted as a significant factor influencing global finance [1] - The implications of this dominance include potential increases in borrowing costs for European entities [1] - The European Central Bank's autonomy may be compromised due to the reliance on the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The direct effect of tariffs may reduce the U.S. economic growth rate by 0.5% to 0.75%, with a negative impact of approximately 0.1% on global economic growth [5] - Tariffs are expected to raise commodity prices and increase the cost of production components, affecting both domestic production and global exports [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and international relations has led many domestic and foreign companies to postpone significant investments, which may have a more substantial impact on U.S. economic growth than the tariffs themselves [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration is characterized by aggressive unilateral actions, which may lead to long-term damage to global trade relationships [6][8] - The potential for a restructuring of global trade networks is anticipated, similar to past global shocks, although this may slow down globalization rather than reverse it [6][8] - The U.S. may not fully withdraw from the WTO but could adopt a less active role, which might encourage other member countries to push for rule reforms [9] Group 3: Future of the Dollar and Global Currency Dynamics - The dollar is expected to maintain its dominant position for the next 10 to 20 years, but its supremacy may be challenged due to U.S. fiscal imbalances and concerns over investment safety [10] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and the safety of U.S. debt could weaken the dollar's status in the global economy [10][11] Group 4: WTO Reform and Global Trade Rules - There is a pressing need for WTO rule updates to address new global challenges such as climate change and health crises, as current rules do not adequately reflect these issues [8][9] - The cooperation of major economies, including the U.S., China, and the EU, is essential for establishing a new, acceptable rule system within the WTO [9][12]

Core Insights - A key indicator measuring the demand in the $7.5 trillion daily forex market shows a weakening demand for the US dollar, even during periods of market turmoil that typically drive investors towards it [1] - Analysts from major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have noted changes in the "cross-currency basis swap," which reflects the additional cost of exchanging one currency for another beyond cash market borrowing costs [1][4] - The recent changes indicate a temporary and mild increase in dollar preference during market turmoil, while demand for other currencies like the euro and yen has been rising [1][4] Group 1: Dollar Financing Costs and Challenges - The ongoing decrease in dollar liquidity preference, particularly relative to the euro, may eventually lead to higher borrowing costs in euros compared to dollars, challenging the dollar's global financial dominance [4] - A report from Morgan Stanley highlighted that recent changes in the cross-currency basis indicate a waning interest in dollar-denominated assets, while interest in euro and yen-denominated assets is increasing [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped over 8% this year, marking the worst start since its inception two decades ago, amidst widespread questioning of the dollar's safe-haven role [4] Group 2: Global Capital Flows and European Fund Repatriation - Analysts are increasingly focused on the long-term changes in global capital flows, particularly the movement of funds from the US to Europe [5][6] - The head of US interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas noted that there is indeed a cross-border capital flow occurring, especially from the US to Europe [6] - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the shrinking balance sheet of the European Central Bank may continue even after the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, supporting a gradual rise in euro financing costs relative to the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar is closely linked to the strength of the US economy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasized that the US dollar's leading position in the global market is a reflection of the underlying economic power of the United States [1] - Williams noted that the dollar's status is supported by the size and stability of the US economy, which attracts global investors [1] - The relationship between the dollar's dominance and US economic strength is crucial for understanding future monetary policy and international trade dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act" (GENIUS Act) with a vote of 68 to 30, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar [1] - Stablecoins are digital currencies linked to the value of the U.S. dollar, designed to avoid the price volatility seen in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and are seen as a bridge between traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies [1] - Despite the Senate's approval, several Democratic lawmakers strongly oppose the bill, citing insufficient regulatory measures and oversight mechanisms to prevent corruption and abuse [1] Group 2 - The bill must still be passed by the House of Representatives and signed by the President to take effect, marking a significant return on investment for the cryptocurrency industry, which has spent hundreds of millions to foster a favorable congressional environment [2] - The GENIUS Act requires tokens to be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term government bonds, and mandates monthly disclosures of token reserves by issuers, potentially increasing demand for U.S. government bonds [2] - Supporters, including Treasury Secretary Yellen, argue that dollar-pegged stablecoins could enhance the global dominance of the U.S. dollar compared to other forms of currency [2]