智通财经APP获悉，近段时间以来，对人工智能(AI)交易可持续性和高昂估值的担忧导致包括美股在内 的全球股市表现低迷。目前，全球投资者正紧盯英伟达(NVDA.US)即将公布的财报。有分析认为，英 伟达的财报对市场来说将是一个非常重要的时刻。市场策略师Ryan Grabinski表示，英伟达财报结果很 可能会对美国和国际市场产生连锁反应。尽管近几周对AI的整体预期有所降温，但这份财报有可能将 情绪重新转向乐观。 从最新的高管表态来看，华尔街顶级投资机构对后市走向明显存在分歧。高盛集团总裁沃尔德伦(John Waldron)周三在出席经济论坛时表示，市场已为潜在的进一步下跌做好准备，但进一步下跌的幅度将 较为温和。他表示："在我看来，市场可能进一步回调。我认为技术面确实更倾向于需要更多保护措 施，以及存在更多下行空间。" 数据显示，标普500指数本月迄今下跌逾3%，恐创下3月以来的最差月度表现。与此同时，市场波动性 急剧上升。对科技股的抛售潮反映了投资者们关于人工智能(AI)交易的辩论——大型科技公司在AI基础 设施上的巨额投资能否产生足够的收入或利润。 不过，沃尔德伦认为，当前的市场回调是健康的。他表示："当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Putin clarified that Russia is not actively pursuing a "de-dollarization" policy but is compelled to use its own currency due to restrictions on dollar transactions [3][5]. Group 1: Putin's Statements - Putin emphasized that Russia has not initiated any anti-dollar movement and is merely responding to the inability to use the dollar in international payments [3]. - He addressed Trump's accusations regarding BRICS nations' de-dollarization efforts, stating that such policies are only relevant to the member countries and do not target third parties [3]. - Putin's remarks suggest a desire to avoid direct confrontation with Trump, especially given the context of ongoing U.S. sanctions against Russia [3][5]. Group 2: Trump's Threats - Following Trump's election, he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they continued to pursue de-dollarization and sought to introduce a new currency to replace the dollar [4]. - In July, during the BRICS summit, Brazilian President Lula called for alternatives to the dollar, prompting Trump to threaten a 10% tariff on any country supporting anti-American policies [4]. - Trump later announced a 50% tariff on Brazil, asserting that the BRICS nations were undermining the dollar's dominance and that he would protect the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [4]. Group 3: Russia's Economic Context - Despite a significant portion of trade with China being conducted in rubles, Russia faces challenges in using its currency for transactions with other countries, such as India, where the rupee has limited international circulation [5]. - The use of the yuan is also complicated, as most yuan received by Russia is used for imports from China, limiting its utility [5]. - Russia's economic situation necessitates a resolution to sanctions and a restoration of financial transactions with the U.S., which Putin has been seeking through cautious diplomatic signals [7][9].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the "Genius Act" aims to maintain the dominance of the US dollar, with a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points by mid-2024, bringing rates down to around 3% [2] - The current economic conditions may lead to a decline in demand for US dollars and US Treasury bonds, resulting in dollar depreciation [2] Group 2 - Citadel's founder anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once or twice more in 2025 due to concerns about the labor market [4] - The number of new jobs is declining, which could hinder the ability to create new employment opportunities without immigration [4] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market may lead to further rate cuts as economic conditions evolve [4] Group 3 - Panmure Liberum warns that rising long-term US Treasury yields could delay the investment boom in artificial intelligence [3] - Higher yields increase debt costs, making some investment projects unprofitable, with a 1% rise in yields potentially reducing IT equipment investment growth by 0.6% [3] - The current high valuations may lead to downward adjustments in earnings forecasts for large tech companies and growth stocks [3] Group 4 - Citic Securities expects the weakness of the US dollar to persist at least through 2025 due to narrowing monetary policy differentials and slowing economic momentum [6] - The domestic dairy industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by deep processing and increased capacity, with a projected demand exceeding 26 billion yuan [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from lower milk prices and a focus on domestic supply chain innovation [6] Group 5 - The gaming industry is experiencing an upswing due to the approval of new game licenses, with 145 domestic and 11 imported licenses issued in September 2025 [8] - The stable supply of licenses is expected to enhance short-term industry sentiment and support long-term product development [8] - Companies focusing on AI and IP commercialization trends are recommended for potential performance improvements [8]

邢自强表示，我们长期看空美元。"当美国实际利率下降时，其与其他主要经济体的利差将会缩小，甚至可能低于这些经济体的利率。这将可能削弱全球资 本对美元和美债的需求，导致美元贬值，并加剧美债市场的波动性"，邢自强解释道。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席本次论坛并发表主题演讲。邢自强指出："美国推出的'天才法案'，本质上反映了美国想让支付基础设施数字化阶 段依然维持美元的主导。" 邢自强认为，短期来看美元稳定币法案可能进一步强化美元国际地位，但这反而可能进一步暴露全球支付体系过于依赖美元的单点风险。这促使中国等众多 国家开始研究如何摆脱对美元的单一依赖，构建多币种、多轨道的支付结算体系，因此对稳定币等新技术产生浓厚兴趣。 邢自强分析，美联储已开启降息周期，预计到明年上半年累计降息幅度125个基点，利率将降至3%左右。与此同时，美国通胀因劳动力短缺和进口价格上涨 可能保持高位，导致实际利率较快下降。 凤凰网财经讯9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英， 共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新 ...

贝莱德策略师：稳定币监管法规可能支撑美元 金十数据7月29日讯，贝莱德策略师在一份报告中表示，美国最新出台的稳定币监管立法可能有利于加 强美元的主导地位。本月早些时候，美国总统特朗普签署了《Genius法案》，该法案旨在为稳定币建立 监管框架。策略师指出："这项法规有望通过打造一个基于代币化美元的国际支付生态系统，进一步巩 固美元的主导地位。"策略师还指出，对于新兴市场用户来说，稳定币相比本国波动剧烈的货币，将提 供一种更便捷的美元获取方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The early dominance of the US dollar in stablecoins provides advantages to the US, potentially increasing borrowing costs in Europe, undermining the European Central Bank's autonomy, and heightening dependence on the US [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's leading position in stablecoins is highlighted as a significant factor influencing global finance [1] - The implications of this dominance include potential increases in borrowing costs for European entities [1] - The European Central Bank's autonomy may be compromised due to the reliance on the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The direct effect of tariffs may reduce the U.S. economic growth rate by 0.5% to 0.75%, with a negative impact of approximately 0.1% on global economic growth [5] - Tariffs are expected to raise commodity prices and increase the cost of production components, affecting both domestic production and global exports [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and international relations has led many domestic and foreign companies to postpone significant investments, which may have a more substantial impact on U.S. economic growth than the tariffs themselves [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration is characterized by aggressive unilateral actions, which may lead to long-term damage to global trade relationships [6][8] - The potential for a restructuring of global trade networks is anticipated, similar to past global shocks, although this may slow down globalization rather than reverse it [6][8] - The U.S. may not fully withdraw from the WTO but could adopt a less active role, which might encourage other member countries to push for rule reforms [9] Group 3: Future of the Dollar and Global Currency Dynamics - The dollar is expected to maintain its dominant position for the next 10 to 20 years, but its supremacy may be challenged due to U.S. fiscal imbalances and concerns over investment safety [10] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and the safety of U.S. debt could weaken the dollar's status in the global economy [10][11] Group 4: WTO Reform and Global Trade Rules - There is a pressing need for WTO rule updates to address new global challenges such as climate change and health crises, as current rules do not adequately reflect these issues [8][9] - The cooperation of major economies, including the U.S., China, and the EU, is essential for establishing a new, acceptable rule system within the WTO [9][12]

Core Insights - A key indicator measuring the demand in the $7.5 trillion daily forex market shows a weakening demand for the US dollar, even during periods of market turmoil that typically drive investors towards it [1] - Analysts from major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have noted changes in the "cross-currency basis swap," which reflects the additional cost of exchanging one currency for another beyond cash market borrowing costs [1][4] - The recent changes indicate a temporary and mild increase in dollar preference during market turmoil, while demand for other currencies like the euro and yen has been rising [1][4] Group 1: Dollar Financing Costs and Challenges - The ongoing decrease in dollar liquidity preference, particularly relative to the euro, may eventually lead to higher borrowing costs in euros compared to dollars, challenging the dollar's global financial dominance [4] - A report from Morgan Stanley highlighted that recent changes in the cross-currency basis indicate a waning interest in dollar-denominated assets, while interest in euro and yen-denominated assets is increasing [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped over 8% this year, marking the worst start since its inception two decades ago, amidst widespread questioning of the dollar's safe-haven role [4] Group 2: Global Capital Flows and European Fund Repatriation - Analysts are increasingly focused on the long-term changes in global capital flows, particularly the movement of funds from the US to Europe [5][6] - The head of US interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas noted that there is indeed a cross-border capital flow occurring, especially from the US to Europe [6] - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the shrinking balance sheet of the European Central Bank may continue even after the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, supporting a gradual rise in euro financing costs relative to the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar is closely linked to the strength of the US economy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasized that the US dollar's leading position in the global market is a reflection of the underlying economic power of the United States [1] - Williams noted that the dollar's status is supported by the size and stability of the US economy, which attracts global investors [1] - The relationship between the dollar's dominance and US economic strength is crucial for understanding future monetary policy and international trade dynamics [1]