Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds increased by 2.1 basis points, reaching 2.565% before dropping to a daily low of 2.502% and then fluctuating back up to a daily high of 2.577% [1] - The yield on 2-year German bonds decreased by 0.8 basis points, reported at 1.843%, trading within a range of 1.863%-1.819% during the day [1] - The yield on 30-year German bonds rose by 2.6 basis points, reported at 3.052% [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year German bond yield spread increased by 2.957 basis points, reported at +71.967 basis points [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].

日本10年期国债收益率下跌1.5个基点至1.4%。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，日本10年期国债收益率下跌1.5个基点至1.4%。 ...

Core Points - Japan's 10-year government bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 1.4% [1] - The 20-year government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 2.32% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note has decreased to 3.808%, marking the lowest level since May 8 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the two-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment and potential changes in monetary policy expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The movement of the UK 30-year government bond yields since April has been primarily influenced by the US market, indicating a strong correlation between the two markets [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, emphasizes the importance of remaining vigilant regarding market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points to 6.26% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards government securities [1] - A lower yield may suggest increased demand for bonds, reflecting a flight to safety among investors [1] - The current yield level could influence future borrowing costs for the government and impact overall economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year German government bond yield is expected to experience its largest single-day increase since March 5 [1] Group 1 - The anticipated rise in the yield indicates a significant shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government debt [1] - This increase may reflect broader economic trends or changes in monetary policy expectations [1] - The bond market's reaction could have implications for other asset classes and overall market stability [1]

10年期日本国债收益率上升2.5个基点至1.43%。 日本10年国债收益率 ...