Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen by 1 basis point to 1.615%, marking the highest level since October 2008 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has experienced a decline in its growth rate, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1 - The recent increase in the 30-year Treasury yield has shown signs of moderation, suggesting a possible stabilization in long-term interest rates [1] - This change in yield may reflect broader economic conditions and investor expectations regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policies [1] - The decline in the growth rate of the yield could impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, such as real estate and utilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 4.7 basis points, reaching a daily high close to 4.34% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose over 4.6 basis points, surpassing 3.8% [1] - Cleveland Fed President Hammack indicated that based on current data, the FOMC may not lower interest rates in September [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rates** - The 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of nearly 4.34% after a rise of about 4.7 basis points [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield exceeded 3.8% following an increase of over 4.6 basis points [1] - **Federal Reserve Insights** - Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a voting member for the 2026 FOMC, suggested that the FOMC is unlikely to cut rates in September based on existing data [1]

21日早间，中国30年期国债活跃券2500002收益率一度上行1bp至2.0525%，对比中债估值为去年12月来新高；10年期国债收益率升近1个基 点至1.7875%，对比中债估值来到4月初高位。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market, but the adjustment space is limited. Attention should be paid to stock market changes and fund duration to select the timing for increasing bond allocation [59] - Overall, during stock market rallies, government bond yields tend to move in sync with funds. If funds are generally loose, government bond yields show a long - term downward trend, with the term spread widening and the credit spread narrowing. In terms of fund diversion, household deposits often decrease year - on - year, bond fund shares may decline periodically but will recover in the later stage of the stock market growth. The scale of wealth management transferred to the stock market may be relatively limited, and the scale and proportion of insurance bond investment are expected to rise [4][58] Summary by Different Stock Market Rally Periods 2006 - 2007 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields rose significantly, fund prices increased, the term spread first narrowed, then widened, and then narrowed again, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1181 points at the beginning of 2006 to 6092 points in mid - October 2007. The 10 - year government bond yield rose from 3.1% to 4.5%, an increase of 139bps. R007 rose from 1.5% to a maximum of 7.1%. The government bond term spread first dropped from 140bp to 85bp in November 2006, then rose to 180bp at the end of June 2007, and then dropped to 122bp in mid - October 2007. The 1 - year medium - term note credit spread dropped from 138bp at the end of 2006 to 59bp in mid - August 2007 and then rose to 118bp in mid - October 2007 [1][8] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, the shares of both stock - type and bond - type funds increased, and the balance of insurance bond investment rose. From the second quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2007, household deposits decreased by a cumulative 12857 billion yuan year - on - year. Stock - type fund shares increased from 1279 billion shares in January 2006 to 10112 billion shares in October 2007, an increase of 8833 billion shares. Bond - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 187 billion shares from 243 billion shares. The balance of insurance bond investment increased from 6600 billion yuan in December 2005 to 10420 billion yuan in June 2007, an increase of 3820 billion yuan [2][14][18] 2014 - 2015 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields decreased significantly, funds were generally loose, the term spread first narrowed and then widened, and the credit spread narrowed after fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2024 points in mid - June 2014 to 5166 points in mid - June 2015. The 10 - year government bond yield dropped from 4.0% to about 3.6%, a decrease of 42bps. R007 first rose from 3.2% to 6.4% in late December 2014 and then dropped to 2.1%. The government bond term spread first narrowed from 63bp to 19bp in mid - October 2014 and then widened to 194bp in mid - June 2015. The 3 - year medium - term note credit spread narrowed from 136bp to 116bp overall [2][25] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, the shares of stock - type and bond - type funds changed in opposite directions, the balance and proportion of insurance bond investment decreased, and the scale of wealth management increased. From July 2014 to June 2015, household deposits decreased by a cumulative 22655 billion yuan year - on - year. Bond - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 456 billion shares, while stock - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 1605 billion shares. The balance of insurance bond investment decreased from 35636 billion yuan in June 2014 to 35532 billion yuan in June 2015, and the proportion of bond investment dropped from 41.48% to 34.27%. The scale of bank wealth management products increased from 12.65 trillion yuan in June 2014 to 18.52 trillion yuan in June 2015 [2][33] 2024 - 2025 Stock Market Rally - **Bond Market Performance**: Government bond yields rose, funds were generally loose, and both the term spread and credit spread widened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2863 points on September 24, 2024, to 3490 points on October 8, 2024, and then continued to fluctuate. From July 2025 to August 18, 2025, it rose from 3458 points to 3728 points. The 10 - year government bond yield first rose from 2.07% to 2.25%, then dropped rapidly to 1.60%, and since July 2025, it has been rising. R007 dropped from 2.03% on September 24, 2024, to 1.50% on August 18, 2025. During the two stock market rallies, the term spread widened by 16.5bp and 9.5bp respectively, and the 3 - year medium - term note credit spread widened by 21.5bp and 6.7bp respectively [2][42] - **Fund Diversion**: Household deposits decreased year - on - year, bond - type fund shares decreased, stock - type fund shares increased, the balance and proportion of insurance bond investment rose, and the balance of wealth management bond investment increased. In September 2024, household deposits decreased by 3257 billion yuan year - on - year, and in July 2025, they decreased by 7818 billion yuan year - on - year. Bond - type fund shares decreased by 7002 billion shares in October 2024, while stock - type fund shares increased by a cumulative 1319 billion shares in September and October 2024. The balance of life insurance company bond investment increased from 14.23 trillion yuan in September 2024 to 16.92 trillion yuan in June 2025, and the proportion increased from 49.18% to 51.90%. The balance of bank wealth management increased from 28.52 trillion yuan in June 2024 to 30.67 trillion yuan in June 2025, and the bond investment scale increased from 16.98 trillion yuan to 18.33 trillion yuan [3][50]

每经AI快讯，8月20日，英国10年期国债收益率下降5个基点至4.69%。 ...

每经AI快讯，8月20日，日本30年期国债收益率上升5个基点至3.190%。 ...

每经AI快讯，8月20日，日本10年期国债收益率升至2008年10月以来最高水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the interbank currency market experienced an increase in trading volume while the balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and large commercial banks' average net lending balance falling [1][2][3] Group 2 - In July, the total trading volume in the currency market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily transaction decreased by 2.2% to 8.1 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank intensified liquidity provision, resulting in an overall balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased to 12.8 trillion yuan, down 2.1% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks fell by 4.0% [5] Group 3 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with total bond issuance in July at 5.29 trillion yuan, a decline of 0.6% from the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [6] - The bond market saw a fluctuation in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [8] - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with daily average transaction volume increasing by 44.8% in July [9]

每经AI快讯，8月18日，2年期日本国债收益率上升0.5个基点至0.825%。 ...