11月，央行连续九个月加量续作MLF，资金面合理充裕。11月，央行维持积极的操作，连续四个月通过买断式逆回购和MLF净投放6000亿元中长期资金， 全月公开市场整体净投放1738亿元。具体来看，11月，央行MLF提量续做10000亿元、净投放1000亿元，为连续第九个月加量续作；买断式逆回购投放 15000亿元、净投放5000亿元；国债买卖净投放500亿元；逆回购净回笼5562亿元；国库现金定存净投放800亿元。11月资金面整体延续了合理充裕的格局， 中下旬受政府债券集中发行缴款的影响，流动性一度边际收紧，月末在央行精准有力的呵护下重回平稳。 主要回购利率小幅上行。DR001、R001月度加权均值分别环比上行3BP、上行5BP至1.37%和1.43%；DR007、R007月度加权均值分别环比持平于1.47%、 1.51%。全月DR007最低值1.413%、最高值1.5239%、中位数1.4688%；波动幅度为11个基点，环比减少8个基点。具体看，月初政府债发行量和银行存单到 期量较小，OMO大额净回笼，但央行等量续作3个月7000亿元买断式逆回购，资金面保持平稳。月中在缴税走款、政府债集中缴款、存单大量到期等 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月17日机构分析：美债年末焦虑缓解，美联储举措或稳定市场】年末银行常减少放贷、囤积现金调 整资产负债表，致短期货币市场利率在季末和年末升高。如2019年9月，企业集中缴税偿债使银行准备 金骤降，回购利率大幅飙升。 上周，美联储宣布购买短期国库券管理现金、控制利率目标区间，今年 跨年回购市场定价大幅下降。 纽约梅隆银行宏观市场策略主管称，美联储有工具避免利率剧烈波动， 预计不会重演2019年市场剧烈波动。 分析师指出，美联储举措将缓解年末资金压力，购债或减少2026 年私人投资者国库券需求，支撑债价、压低收益率，缓解债务供给压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank's report indicates a "high possibility" of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates again in December, despite recent balanced communication from the Fed [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is expected to face political pressure and initial employment market signals that may lead to another rate cut in December [1] - Following the rate cut in October, Fed officials have adopted a cautious stance, with hawkish views suggesting that substantial deterioration in the labor market and significant easing of inflation are necessary for further loosening [1][2] - DBS analysts believe the threshold for further easing is relatively low due to political realities and corporate layoffs [1] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Monetary Policy - The Fed has announced it will stop its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, which has been in place for three years [1] - There is broad consensus among Fed officials regarding the end of QT, driven by the need for more bank reserves to maintain stability in the financial system [2] - DBS expects the Fed to continue reducing its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) while reinvesting the proceeds into U.S. Treasury securities [2] - If rising repo rates do not decline in the coming months, the Fed may begin asset purchases to prevent further declines in reserves, indicating a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Logan, indicates that if the recent rise in repo rates is not a temporary phenomenon, the Fed will need to start purchasing assets [1] Group 1 - The recent increase in repo rates may signal a need for intervention by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's potential asset purchases could impact liquidity in the financial markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank strategists expect the Federal Reserve to announce a halt to the reduction of its balance sheet in the upcoming policy meeting, rather than in December, to avoid a significant impact on its policy credibility following unexpectedly high repurchase rates this week [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to make a policy announcement next week [1] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is aimed at maintaining policy credibility [1] - High repurchase rates this week have influenced the timing of the Fed's announcement [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank strategists expect the Federal Reserve to announce the halt of balance sheet reduction in the upcoming policy meeting rather than in December to avoid a significant impact on its policy credibility following unexpectedly high repurchase rates this week [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to make a policy announcement next week [1] - The decision to stop balance sheet reduction is aimed at maintaining policy credibility [1] - High repurchase rates have prompted a reassessment of the timing for the announcement [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The dollar index is 97.85, with a day - on - day increase of 0.62 and a growth rate of 0.64%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1193, with a day - on - day increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.76%. DR007 is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.11 and a growth rate of 7.52%. R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.82%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.82% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple charts related to the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc. [15][17][19] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds, as well as the Shibor interest rate trend and the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [28][34]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [32][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report offers charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [59][61]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][72]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the interbank currency market experienced an increase in trading volume while the balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and large commercial banks' average net lending balance falling [1][2][3] Group 2 - In July, the total trading volume in the currency market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily transaction decreased by 2.2% to 8.1 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank intensified liquidity provision, resulting in an overall balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased to 12.8 trillion yuan, down 2.1% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks fell by 4.0% [5] Group 3 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with total bond issuance in July at 5.29 trillion yuan, a decline of 0.6% from the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [6] - The bond market saw a fluctuation in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [8] - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with daily average transaction volume increasing by 44.8% in July [9]

Core Viewpoint - South Africa's repo rate has been set at 7% as of July 31, which aligns with market expectations of 7.00% and is a decrease from the previous rate of 7.25% [1] Group 1 - The current repo rate of 7% indicates a monetary policy adjustment aimed at stimulating economic activity [1] - The decision to lower the rate from 7.25% reflects the central bank's response to economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Turkey set the repo rate at 43% for the week ending July 24, which is slightly below the expected rate of 43.5% and down from the previous rate of 46.00% [1]