Gold Market - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to hawkish statements from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which have led to a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - At the beginning of November, the market had anticipated over an 80% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, but this expectation has rapidly diminished, tightening market liquidity and strengthening the US dollar index, thereby suppressing gold prices [2] - On November 18, Federal Reserve official Waller reiterated the need for a rate cut in December, which temporarily boosted bullish sentiment in the gold market [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihau believes that the sustainability of the gold price decline is weak, and the market will refocus on the upcoming US non-farm payroll data to be released on Thursday [2] - From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, while the hourly chart indicates a breakout above the 60-day moving average, suggesting a weak trend reversal phase [2] Oil Market - As of November 19, reports indicate that US sanctions are significantly reducing demand for Russian oil, with the US Treasury Department stating that recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful [4] - The focus of the oil market has been on Russian supply, particularly following attacks on Russian oil facilities and the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports, which have supported a short-term increase in oil prices [5] - From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows a bullish candle, and the market has broken out of a rectangular consolidation pattern, testing the resistance level at $61.20 [5] - Current prices are above the 60/120-day moving averages, but the bullish advantage is not strong, with today's focus on whether prices can maintain above $61.20, while support is noted at $60.10 and resistance at $61.40 [5] Copper Market - The daily chart indicates a bearish candle, with prices trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, continuing a downward trend [7] - The market showed signs of consolidation yesterday, gradually correcting the divergence, with support noted at $4.86 and the potential for prices to test and possibly break below $4.90 [7] Nasdaq Market - The daily chart reflects a bearish candle, with prices also trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, indicating a continuation of the downward trend [8] - Today's focus is on the support level at 24,000 and resistance at 24,700 [8]

新华财经纽约11月18日电美元指数18日下跌。 1美元兑换155.53日元，高于前一交易日的155.25日元；1美元兑换0.7992瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.7965瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3979加元，低于前一交易日的1.4055加元；1美元兑换9.4640瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4877瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.04%，在汇市尾市收于99.551。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1585美元，高于前一交易日的1.1583美元；1英镑兑换1.3155美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3146美元。 ...

11月18日周二，美元指数（DXY）在99.55附近整理，市场聚焦因政府停摆推迟的美国经济数据，其中 周四的9月非农就业报告为核心。美联储官员释放劳动力市场疲软信号，使12月降息预期降至43%。数 据与讲话落地前投资者观望情绪浓厚，美元短线方向将取决于非农表现。 美元指数技术面分析 从日线结构观察，美元指数目前运行于20日均线下方，短线趋势仍偏弱势，但99.50区域已形成较强支 撑。若指数能站稳该支撑区间，并重新突破20日均线（约99.90位置），将打开向100.50的反弹空间。 指标层面，14日RSI指标位于45-50区间，反映市场动能中性偏弱，且尚未触及超卖区域，意味着短线大 概率延续震荡格局。若后续跌破99.40支撑位，下行目标将指向99.10及98.80的阶梯式支撑区间。 官员言论的密集释放，直接引发市场对美联储政策预期的调整。据CME FedWatch工具数据显示，当前 交易员预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至43%，较一周前的62%大幅回落，与一个月前"几乎 确定降息"的市场共识形成鲜明反差。 综合来看，在重磅数据落地前，美元指数维持中性偏弱的整理格局，而劳动力市场的实际信号，将成为 锚定 ...

【要闻速递】 近期，美联储官员纷纷释放鹰派信号，令市场在降息预期上更为谨慎。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克 （Bostic）与堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）等多位官员均着重强调了通胀风险，明确表态支持维 持现有利率区间不变。 受此影响，市场对12月降息的预期进一步降温。最新数据表明，目前市场仅预计约45%的可能性会在12 月降息25个基点，这一比例较前一周的60%出现了显著下滑。 不过，瑞银分析师指出，尽管未来公布的经济数据或许会对今年第三次降息的整体预期产生一定干扰， 但短期内的不确定性仍将导致黄金价格呈现波动态势。 今日周二（11月18日）亚盘市中，黄金于4030美元附近延续跌势。市场情绪显著转变，投资者对美联储 下月降息预期大幅降温，致黄金承压。利率走向是影响贵金属价格关键因素，市场预期宽松周期放缓使 无息资产黄金吸引力降低。同时，美元指数三连涨抬高非美货币投资者购金成本，进一步抑制需求。此 前美国政府长期关门致经济数据滞后，加剧美元短线波动并间接冲击金价。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 从日线周期观察，黄金整体呈现震荡偏弱结构。K线数日连续收跌，价格运行在主要均线下方，显示上 方抛压较重。 短期均线呈现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation due to high inventory and oversupply, and stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern because of weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 117,020 yuan/ton and closed at 116,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,806 (-15,915) lots, and the open interest was 107,341 (-4,908) lots. The price continued the downward trend after breaking through on November 14. The strengthening of the US dollar index and loose supply - demand relationship with rising inventory led to a clear short - term downward trend [1] - **Nickel Ore**: New tenders in the nickel ore market are about to be finalized, and the price is stable. In the Philippines, there are tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. The downstream nickel - iron price is falling, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore and want to lower the price. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (5,604) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,113 (+17,461) lots, and the open interest was 172,728 (-4,171) lots. The price fluctuated at a low level, hovering around the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, with the short - term moving average system intertwined and the direction unclear. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and falling nickel prices, there was no sign of a price rebound [3] - **Spot**: The price continued to decline to a historical low, and the market inquiry heat increased. In the context of weak demand and falling raw material costs, steel mills were more willing to sell at low prices. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,750 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 380 - 580 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 902.5 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Core Insights - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, stand at 1,041.43 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day [5] - Gold prices have continued to decline, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The market is experiencing a shift in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions and the end of government shutdowns [5] Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 17, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were reported at 1,041.43 tons, down from previous levels [5] - The decline in holdings correlates with a drop in gold prices, which fell to around $4,000 per ounce before recovering slightly to close at $4,045.50 [5] Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been under pressure due to a strong US dollar and diminishing expectations for a December interest rate cut, with the probability dropping from 94% to 44% [5] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is becoming more hawkish, which may continue to impact gold prices negatively in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently showing a range-bound pattern, with key support around $4,043 and resistance at $4,100 [7] - If gold prices break below the $4,040-$4,050 range, they may revisit the previous range of $3,900-$4,050 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are currently dominant, while the MACD shows signs of losing bearish momentum [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the US dollar index, driven by Federal Reserve policy disagreements and economic data performance [1][2] - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward movement since hitting a low of 98.865 on November 3, forming a potential "W-bottom" pattern [2] - The market is currently focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to be a key catalyst for the dollar index's direction [1] Group 2 - As of November 18, the dollar index is trading within a narrow range of 99.20-99.60, with a recent high of 99.477 and a low of 99.245, indicating a buildup for a potential breakout [2] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 57.1%, while the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased to 42.9%, providing support for the dollar index [1] - Technical indicators show a bullish structure with the RSI reading at 52 and MACD showing signs of a bullish crossover, suggesting a moderate release of bullish momentum [2]

Market Overview - The market sentiment has shifted significantly, with investors reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] - The current trading price of gold is around $4030, continuing its downward trend due to the strong dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1][2] Federal Reserve Influence - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market perceptions of maintaining high interest rates, further diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1][2] - Market pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to approximately 45%, down from 60% the previous week, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has shown a clear downtrend, with a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern indicating a weak short-term outlook [3] - The price is currently operating below the five-day moving average, suggesting continued bearish momentum [3] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to maintain a bearish outlook, with specific entry points for short positions around the 10-day moving average at $4055 and potential targets at $4005 and $3976 [5][6] - For potential long positions, a buy strategy is suggested around $3975-$3980, with targets set at $4000-$4010 [6] Key Levels - Resistance levels are identified at $4055, $4075, and $4095, while support levels are at $4005, $3976, and $3930 [5][6]

昨日11月17日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘后一度上行至4107附近，随后开启下行走势，午盘时段下探至4049附近后止跌回升。欧盘初上涨4096附近后受阻， 转而进入震荡下行；美国交易时段初期，下行趋势持续延续，直至凌晨时段加速下探，触及日内最低点4007附近。收盘前夕，金价略有回弹，最终收于4045 附近，日线级别收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 2、四小时级别：黄金在周一呈现震荡下行态势，日内虽有反弹，但最终还是受阻下跌，高点持续下移，整体走势偏弱。凌晨时段，价格跌破上周五低点 4032关键支撑位，最低下探至4007附近。从技术结构来看，黄金自4245高点开启的下跌行情，已形成完整的五波运行结构。 根据周末的行情推演，黄金自4381高点启动的调整浪走势清晰：其中4381至3886的下行段定义为A浪，3886至4245的回升段构成B浪，目前价格处于4245高 点以来的C浪下跌阶段。从浪型结构推演，C浪下跌大概率延续五波运行模式，当前正处于C浪中的第一波下跌进程。昨日价格成功下破4032支撑位，标志着 C浪第一波下跌同样完成五波结构走势。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周一呈现震荡下跌的弱势格局，最终以阴线报收，日线 ...

聊到这儿，给咱中长线投资者说句实在的策略：咱不做短线投机，别被一天的涨跌牵着鼻子走。油价要看OPEC+增产和地缘风险的博弈，金价等美联储 12月会议的明确信号，基本金属重点盯下游需求复苏的动静。中长线赚钱的关键，是抓准核心矛盾，等确定性机会，而不是在消息面里追涨杀跌。 好了，今天就跟大家唠到这儿，20年跟盘的经验，只跟大家说实在的逻辑、靠谱的判断。觉得帮主说的有用，就多关注转发，后续大宗商品有新动向， 我第一时间跟大家同步！要不要我帮你整理一份本次大宗商品核心影响因素的精简笔记，方便你随时查看？收起 再说说金价，这两天跌得让不少人纳闷。核心原因特简单，之前大家都笃定美联储12月会降息，黄金不生息，降息预期一强它就涨；可现在美联储官员 开始喊"通胀可能停滞"，降息的事儿突然变得不确定了，预期一降温，金价自然就回调了。不过帮主得提醒一句，咱中长线看，金价的核心还是跟着美联 储政策走，短期的情绪波动别太当真。 还有伦铜这些基本金属，为啥也跟着跌？说白了就是美元走强了，近两周美元指数涨得挺猛，以美元计价的大宗商品，美元一涨吸引力就降，这是老祖 宗传下来的规律。但大家别慌，基本金属长期看的是全球经济复苏的需求，短期跟着 ...