Economic Overview - The Chinese economy in 2025 shows a clear trend of strong external demand and export growth, while internal demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and fixed asset investment, leading to continued pressure on consumption [1][3] Internal vs External Demand - The balance between internal and external demand is crucial for determining the economic direction, with final consumption contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP, capital formation contributing 0.9 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points [2] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of the population feels pessimistic about employment, with 57.4% of respondents in a survey expressing concerns about job prospects, leading to a low consumer sentiment index of 25.8 [4] - Retail sales growth remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% in November, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market shows a divergence between first-tier cities, which have seen relatively stable prices, and lower-tier cities, which have experienced significant declines. However, by late 2025, this divergence is expected to narrow [5] - New home and second-hand home prices in major cities have declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, heavily influenced by a 15.9% drop in real estate investment. Private investment has also declined by 5.3% [13] - Government and state-owned enterprise investments are becoming the primary drivers of new investments, with social financing growing by 8.5% year-on-year [13] Export Performance - Exports are experiencing a structural transformation, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8%, while labor-intensive product exports have decreased [11] - Trade with the U.S. has declined by 16.9%, while trade with ASEAN countries has increased by 8.5%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [12] Sectoral Disparities - New industries supported by national policies are showing stable income and development expectations, but their ability to create jobs is limited due to automation [6] - Traditional sectors, such as new energy vehicles, are facing challenges from price wars, limiting their ability to provide substantial employment opportunities [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is characterized by a decline in large durable goods, while basic and discretionary spending remains stable but under price pressure [10] - The trend of "emotional consumption" is evident, with increased travel and entertainment participation but lower average spending per outing [10] Government Debt and Real Estate Risks - The real estate sector faces significant risks, including asset-liability risks from falling prices and systemic pressures on local finances due to shrinking land revenue [15] - Government debt is increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, while public budget revenues are only growing by 0.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressures [16]

2025.12. 23 本文字数：2860，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 "以前不一定马上结汇，最近是一到就结汇，尤其是数额大的订单。"浙江外贸人丁言东告诉第一财 经，正是出于对人民币持续升值的应对，他们近期会更及时结汇，以减少汇率波动带来的损失。就在 上周完成结汇的一笔订单，较此前（同金额）直接少了数万元，"越细算越肉痛，这些本来都是利 润"。 对于中小微外贸企业而言，为保持现金流，通常倾向于及时结汇，较少采用锁汇等避险操作。近期人 民币持续升值，创下14个月以来新高，这对出口企业来说并非好消息——企业可能面临即时的汇兑 损失，即同样金额的美元结汇后所得人民币减少；若为进一步守住利润而调高产品价格，又会在一定 程度上削弱中小制造业的价格优势。与此同时，年底企业结汇需求增加，也可能进一步推动人民币升 值，形成叠加压力。 一到账就结汇 和丁言东类似，看到人民币持续升值的趋势，厦门外贸人刘超告诉第一财经，他们最近的做法也 是"一到账就结汇"。 上海环保技术领域外贸人刘友玲对第一财经表示，除了到账及时结汇之外，汇率波动对于他们做的贸 易业务部分产生了较大影响，但对于自主品牌的出口业务，因利润空间 ...

海关总署最新数据显示，我国11月进出口同比 增长4.1%，连续10个月保持增长。但这增长背后，却是一 场深刻的转型。 今年前11个月，我国贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元大关，创历史同期新高。同时，出口同比增长6.2%，进口仅增长 0.2%。 数据显示，我国对美出口同比下降28.6%，但对非洲出口却激增27.6%。 海关总署最新数据显示，11月份我国货物贸易进出口总值达到3.9万亿元人民币，同比增长4.1%，增速较上月加快了4 个百分点。 连续10个月保持增长的势头得到巩固。从单月表现来看，出口和进口实现双增长，同比与环比均为正增长。从1-11月 的累计数据看，我国外贸进出口总值达到41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长3.6%。尤其值得注意的是，以美元计价， 2025年前11个月中国贸易顺差创下历史新高，达到1.076万亿美元。 这个数字刷新了2024年全年纪录，首次在统计周期内突破1万亿美元关口。 在具体商品出口方面，机电产品仍然是出口的主力军，占出口总值的60.9%。前11个月，机电产品出口同比增长 8.8%，特别是集成电路、汽车和船舶等产品表现尤为突出。 单月数据显示，11月集成电路出口额同比增长34.2%。这一 ...

Economic Overview - The economic data for October shows a significant slowdown across multiple sectors, with industrial output, exports, and investments all experiencing declines [2][4] - Industrial value-added growth fell from 6.5% in September to 4.9% in October, while fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 1.62% month-on-month [2] - Consumer spending growth was impacted by the withdrawal of government subsidies, with retail sales growth slowing to 2.9% [2] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with both sales volume and sales area declining, indicating a persistent "cold air" in the sector [3][5] - Real estate development investment dropped by 14.7%, with new residential sales area at 71.982 million square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue at 690.17 billion yuan, down 9.6% [6] - The confidence crisis in the real estate market is more critical than policy changes or interest rate adjustments, affecting both sales and land auction markets [12][15] Investment Trends - Excluding real estate, fixed asset investment actually grew by 1.7%, with private investment showing a slight increase of 0.2% [17] - Notable growth was observed in information services investment, which surged by 32.7%, and aerospace manufacturing, which grew by 19.7% [17] - The shift in economic growth drivers indicates a transition from traditional construction to high-tech industries, marking a significant structural change towards "high-quality development" [17][18] Trade Dynamics - The total import and export volume saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with exports of mechanical and electrical products rising by 8.7%, now constituting 60.7% of total exports [17][18] - Private enterprises accounted for 57% of total exports, reflecting their agility and responsiveness in the current economic climate [17] Future Outlook - The current economic pain is viewed as a necessary adjustment for past development models, while the ongoing transformation is seen as laying the groundwork for future growth [19]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade has shown a steady growth of 3.5% in the first seven months of the year, despite increasing risks and challenges in international economic and trade development [1][4][6] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first seven months, imports and exports to emerging and other markets increased by 5%, accounting for 65.5% of total trade [4] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.3%, making up 60% of total exports, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Notable growth in exports was observed in high-tech and high-value-added products such as smart home devices, electric vehicles, industrial robots, and ships [4] Group 2: Policy Support - Since the fourth quarter of last year, the Ministry of Commerce has been working with relevant departments to strengthen policy support for foreign trade enterprises, focusing on stabilizing orders and employment [4] - The commitment to expand high-level opening-up remains strong, with confidence in continuing to promote stable and quality improvements in foreign trade [6]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade is showing a solid upward and innovative momentum, with a total import and export value of 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first seven months, China's exports of electromechanical products increased by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports, which is a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] - High-tech and high-value-added products such as smart home devices, electric vehicles, industrial robots, and ships maintained a high export growth rate [2] - A total of 654,000 foreign trade enterprises achieved import and export performance in the first seven months, with nearly 90% being private enterprises [2] Group 2: Challenges and Strategies - The international economic and trade environment is facing significant risks and challenges, with increased tariff barriers raising global trade costs and affecting supply chain efficiency and stability [2] - China will continue to expand high-level opening-up and focus on high-quality development to address various uncertainties in the global trade landscape [2]

Group 1: Economic Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta - Major projects in Shanghai for 2025 include 186 officially planned projects with an investment of 240 billion yuan, showing strong investment completion rates in the first half of the year [2] - Anhui province announced 537 major projects with a total investment of 324.08 billion yuan, focusing on emerging industries and high-tech projects, indicating a shift towards new and high-quality investments [2] - Jiangsu province's 800 major industrial projects are over 98% advanced manufacturing, with a 12% acceleration in project completion compared to targets [3] Group 2: Sports Economy Impact - The "Su Super" football league in Jiangsu has significantly boosted local consumption, with hospitality and dining sectors seeing increased revenue growth in areas hosting matches [5] - The "Zhe BA" basketball league in Zhejiang aims to stimulate consumption through sports events, with a focus on integrating sports with tourism and services [6] Group 3: Foreign Trade Stability - The Yangtze River Delta's import and export volume reached 8.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 5.4% increase, accounting for 37.4% of the national total [7] - High-value products dominate exports, with a notable increase in exports of integrated circuits by 17.8% and a significant rise in the number of active import-export enterprises [7] - Shanghai's foreign trade showed resilience with a historical high in import-export volume in the second quarter, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang reported substantial growth in specific sectors [8]