欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示，若美联储失去其独立性，将给这个世界造成"严重威胁"。但拉 加德周一在接受Radio Classique电台采访时表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将会发现要把美国央行置于控 制之下"非常困难"，理由是法律先例阻止他免去美联储理事。"如果他真的做到了，我认为那将对美国 经济和全球经济构成非常严重的威胁。"她说，"货币政策显然对美国维持物价稳定和确保最佳就业有影 响。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a strong performance on September 1, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 801.80 CNY per gram, up 2.24%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9779.00 CNY per kilogram, up 4.20% [1] - International precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3554.80 CNY per ounce, up 1.10%, and COMEX silver at 41.52 USD per ounce, up 1.89% [1] - Recent trends indicate a focus on the shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has led to increased market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 12.6% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, while there is an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] - By October, the probability of maintaining rates is projected at 5.6%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 45.8% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 48.6% [2]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：美联储失去独立性将是全世界的担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a federal lawsuit challenging the legality of Trump's dismissal, focusing on the interpretation of the "just cause" clause in the Federal Reserve Act, with the case potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1] - Trump’s administration is considering increasing its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, including reviewing the selection process for bank presidents [1] - The Federal Reserve responded to Cook's lawsuit, stating that governors have term and dismissal protections [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, expecting further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data [2] - New York Fed President Williams believes it is appropriate to lower rates at the right time, indicating that current policy remains moderately restrictive [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests it is time to adjust policy due to conflicting inflation and employment targets [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasizes the need for improved communication regarding interest rate paths and economic outlook [2] European Central Bank Insights - ECB's Rehn states that inflation risks are "tilted to the downside," indicating potential for future rate cuts [2] - The U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on European exports could slow Eurozone growth by "several percentage points" [2] Other Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Hungary has set its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, indicating that the fight against inflation is not over [3] - The Bank of the Philippines has cut rates by 25 basis points, with the possibility of further cuts [4] - The Bank of Brazil's survey shows economists expect GDP growth of 1.86% in 2026 and an inflation rate of 4.86% for 2025 [5] - The Bank of Indonesia will continue to participate in the foreign exchange market to maintain the Rupiah's alignment with fundamentals [6] Market Observations - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following Trump's dismissal of Cook, leading to a decline in the dollar [7] - Analysts predict the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace to £70 billion over the next 12 months due to rising yield concerns [8] - Swiss bank analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia may delay its rate cut path due to unexpectedly high CPI readings [8] - The Philippine central bank appears to be nearing the end of its easing cycle, with expectations for one more rate cut this year [9]

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices increased by $157.77 in August, marking a 4.8% rise, the best monthly performance since April [1] - As of August 29, the CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 contracts, indicating increased bullish sentiment [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, despite some positive economic data [2][3] - Fed officials, including Governor Waller, expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, citing risks in the labor market [3][4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to further influence gold prices and Fed policy [1][3] Group 3: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][7] - The potential for Trump to exert greater influence over the selection of regional Fed presidents could further impact market perceptions of Fed independence [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are testing resistance around $3453, with potential targets set between $3580 and $3780 [8] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3430-$3400, with critical support at $3380-$3360 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Economists warn that financial markets have not fully absorbed the risks posed by Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, including high inflation and loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's intervention raises concerns that the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting may be compromised [2]. - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear a permanent shift in the Fed's priorities towards employment and reducing government borrowing costs after Powell's term ends [2][4]. - 52% of surveyed economists expect a shift in the Fed's policy focus towards employment and government borrowing costs at the end of Powell's term, potentially at the expense of price stability [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could unleash strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [7]. - Only one respondent believes that Trump's attacks on Fed independence will not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economy [10]. - Economists generally agree that a weakened Fed independence could harm the largest economy, with implications for lower and more stable inflation and financial stability [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - 82% of respondents think that financial markets have only partially or slightly absorbed the impact of the White House's interference with the Fed, while 12% believe the markets have not absorbed these attacks at all [10]. - Market reactions to the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook were muted, contrasting with previous strong investor responses to threats against Powell [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [2][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2622 | 2619 | - 3.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 20560 | 20715 | 155.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | 2.07 | 2.98 | 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 479525 | 481050 | 1525.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 57144 | 58629 | 1485.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20604 | 20772 | 168.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | 30 | - 30 | - 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Reserve Spot Average Price | 20562 | 20712 | 150.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 42 | 60 | 18.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 59.6 | 62 | 2.4 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16628.88 | 16581.41 | - 47.5 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 3975.12 | 4190.59 | 215.5 | yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's dismissal of Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000. The eurozone economic sentiment index in August dropped to 95.2. In China, Shanghai introduced real - estate new policies, and the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed [4] - **Consumption end**: The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7% week - on - week, but the order recovery degree of each segment varied, and the short - term downstream operating rate may still rise slowly [5] - **Inventory aspect**: On August 28, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons from last Thursday [5] 3.3 Market Outlook The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [6] 3.4 Industry News - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025 was 510,200 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July was 3.4142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [7] - The Yunnan Green and Low - Carbon Demonstration Industrial Park was completed, and the 1.93 - million - ton low - carbon aluminum B - series project of Yunnan Honghe was put into production. Currently, the first - stage capacity of 160,715 tons in the B - series has reached full production, and the transferred capacity of 378,000 tons is expected to reach full production before October 1 [7] - The retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market in the first 24 days of August was 727,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6% and 7% respectively. The new - energy retail penetration rate has reached 56.6%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of the year has reached 7.182 million, a year - on - year surge of 27% [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai Aluminum's inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [8][9][12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump signifies a significant shift in the traditionally independent institution, aiming to exert political influence over monetary policy [1][5][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions are perceived as a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has historically operated free from political pressure to ensure effective monetary policy [1][9][13]. - Legal scholars and financial experts warn that undermining the Fed's independence could lead to long-term economic damage and loss of credibility [1][9]. Impact on Monetary Policy - If Trump successfully reshapes the Federal Reserve Board, he could gain control over critical economic levers, including interest rates and bank regulations [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve Board has the authority to set the discount rate and reserve requirements, which are essential for managing the economy [3]. Political Implications - Trump's intention to influence the Fed is seen as an attempt to make it a "rubber stamp" for presidential policy, raising concerns about future political interference in monetary decisions [5][9]. - Critics argue that this could lead to economic instability similar to that experienced in countries with authoritarian regimes [5]. Current Composition and Future Outlook - Currently, two members of the Federal Reserve Board were appointed by Trump, with potential for more vacancies, which could further his agenda [9][10]. - However, the expectation that appointed members will automatically align with Trump's views is challenged by their demonstrated independence [10][11]. Broader Economic Consequences - Analysts suggest that if Trump's influence over the Fed increases, it could lead to a departure from established monetary practices, significantly impacting markets and economic stability [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar and the implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by economic slowdown and political pressures from the Trump administration [3][5][10]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 1.6% in August, reversing the 2.7% increase seen in July, which was the best monthly performance since January 2025 [3][5]. - Analysts expect the dollar to continue its downward trend, potentially declining by 8% for the remainder of the year and into 2026, reflecting a "bear market" trajectory [5][10]. Group 2: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The Trump administration's threats to the Federal Reserve's independence and the validity of US economic data are undermining the attractiveness of the dollar and US assets [5][8]. - The ongoing legal battle between Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook could further destabilize the Fed's independence, leading to a potential shift in monetary policy that favors rate cuts [8][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed are high, with an 80% probability of a cut in September and a total of 125 basis points of cuts expected by September 2026 [10][11]. - The anticipated decline in US Treasury yields and the dollar index is likely to continue as long as rate cut expectations persist, diminishing the appeal of the dollar [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Morgan Stanley suggests that while US assets remain attractive, the uncertainty surrounding policy could lead to increased foreign currency hedging, exerting downward pressure on the dollar [11]. - The potential for a $1 trillion sell-off in dollar assets is predicted if foreign investors adjust their hedging ratios back to normal levels [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and the mild PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in technology stocks caused a reversal in stock gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The announcement of Cook's dismissal raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index dropped by 0.06% to 97.77, while spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q2 GDP revision showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.3%, exceeding the expected +3.1%. Fixed asset investment's contribution was revised up from +0.08% to +0.59%, and consumption's contribution was adjusted from +0.98% to +1.07%. Analysts have slightly raised their Q3 growth expectations, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% for Q3 [3][4]. Group 3: Political Developments - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913, raising market concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, and the case is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [4][5].