最近一次货币政策会议纪要显示，决策者曾讨论过可能需要加息的条件，但任何行动都将取决于后续数 据。官员们承认，2月至8月期间实施的75个基点宽松政策的全部效果"尚未完全显现"。 澳大利亚联储副主席安德鲁.豪瑟日前表示，该行在评估通胀时将着眼于未来一至两年的趋势，而非对 单个数据做出反应，这释放出政策制定者对未来利率调整将保持耐心与审慎的信号。 豪瑟周四在接受采访时指出，通胀率高于3%"仍然过高"，决策者将等待1月28日发布的全面季度通胀报 告，以形成对消费者价格的完整判断。他同时暗示，澳大利亚民众很可能已经见证了当前降息周期中的 最后一次降息。 "我知道这不是所有观众都想听到的消息，"豪瑟坦言。 在其讲话后，交易员对央行5月加息的预期概率从市场早盘时的充分定价回落至80%。对政策敏感的三 年期国债价格应声上涨，收益率走低。 道明证券驻新加坡策略师普拉尚特.纽纳哈解读称："市场认为副行长的言论暗示澳大利亚联储立场并未 发生显著转变，因此央行可能维持利率不变更长时间，而非需要提前加息。" 自去年8月最后一次降息以来，澳大利亚联储一直将基准利率维持在3.60%，其政策重心已转向应对劳 动力市场持续紧张及生产率增长疲软 ...

日本央行行长植田和男在新年的首次公开亮相中，面向民营银行业者发表讲话，着重强调了继续上调基 准利率的政策意图。 据了解，日本央行于去年12月19日将基准利率上调至0.75%。多数观察人士预计央行下一次行动将在今 年年中左右，但也有分析指出，由于日元疲软，加息可能提前的风险正在上升。截至发稿，日元兑美元 汇率交投于157.18附近，此前曾触及157.25，为两周以来最低水平。 植田和男讲话后，日元汇率波动有限。市场参与者认为，日元兑美元汇率逼近160这一关键阈值，是影 响日本央行上月利率决策的重要因素。 日元疲软通过推高进口成本加剧了通胀压力。由于日本核心通胀指标已连续超过三年半处于央行2%的 目标水平或以上，家庭对生活成本持续高企已倍感压力。 "我们将根据经济复苏与通胀走势，持续推进加息进程，"植田和男周一在日本银行协会主办的新年会议 上表示，"适时调整货币宽松政策，有助于实现稳定通胀目标，推动经济实现长期增长。" 日本央行将于1月23日公布下一次政策决定。 此番言论发表于最近一次加息约两周后，清晰表明植田和男在将利率提升至1995年以来最高水平后，并 未停止其退出货币宽松政策的步伐。就在其发表讲话前不久，日 ...

固收｜降准降息，何谓"灵活高效"？20251224 摘要 中国货币政策强调适时、适度和有效性，央行操作灵活，可根据经济环 境调整利率，理论上操作机会远超美联储，需关注宏观环境和政策时机 以确保操作效果。 中国主要有政策利率（7 天逆回购利率，目前 1.4%）、基准利率、存款 利率和贷款利率四种类型，分别在调控市场流动性、金融产品定价、影 响居民储蓄和企业融资等方面发挥作用。 评估降息效果可观察股指表现，其被视为宏观经济晴雨表。过去央行在 关键节点调控，如美联储降息和中美贸易谈判前夕，股市均出现明显反 弹，表明股指是直观评估指标。 2026 年 3 月中国两会将提出"十五五"规划纲要，政策落地有望通过 降息提振股市。春节后资金流向影响市场，提振风险偏好有助于资金从 虚拟经济转向实体经济。 2025-2026 年不应过度期待多次大幅度降息，重点是改变债务结构而 非单纯降低融资成本，通过政府加杠杆来优化融资结构，多次大幅度降 息并非必要。 Q&A 2025 年的中央经济工作会议提到灵活高效应用降准降息等多种政策工具，如 何理解这一点？展望 2026 年，宽货币节奏应如何看待？ 2025 年的中央经济工作会议强调了灵 ...

俄央行表示，将维持必要的紧缩货币政策，以使通胀率回归至目标水平。这意味着紧缩货币政策将持续 较长时间。未来基准利率的调整将取决于通胀放缓的可持续性以及通胀预期的动态变化。根据俄央行预 测，在当前货币政策下，2026年年化通胀率将降至4%-5%。可持续通胀率将在2026年下半年达到4%。 2027年及以后，年化通胀率将保持在目标水平。 中新社莫斯科12月19日电俄罗斯中央银行19日宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%。这已是俄央行连 续第五次下调基准利率。 俄央行当天发布公告指出，俄经济正持续回归均衡增长轨道。11月份，物价涨幅的持续性指标有所回 落。与此同时，近几个月通胀预期略有上升。信贷活跃度保持高位。未来基准利率的调整将取决于通胀 放缓的持续性及通胀预期的动态变化。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 俄央行表示，在即将实施的增值税上调及管制价格和关税指数化调整的影响消退后，通缩趋势将继续。 紧缩的货币政策也将促进这一趋势。 俄央行表示，俄整体经济活动继续保持温和增长，但各行业增长速度不均衡。货币环境总体上有所放 松，家庭收入增长、信贷增加和预算支出增加支撑了国内需求。劳动力市场紧张局势正在逐步缓解。与 此同时， ...

英国央行降息至近三年来最低水平，在圣诞节前夕为英国家庭注入一剂强心针，并暗示通胀已足够降 温，使其可在2026年进一步放松政策。 周四的会议纪要显示，货币政策委员会以5对4的投票结果，决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%。这 是自8月以来的首次降息，此前央行九人委员会在前两次会议中均未采取任何行动。 责任编辑：刘明亮 英国央行降息至近三年来最低水平，在圣诞节前夕为英国家庭注入一剂强心针，并暗示通胀已足够降 温，使其可在2026年进一步放松政策。 周四的会议纪要显示，货币政策委员会以5对4的投票结果，决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%。这 是自8月以来的首次降息，此前央行九人委员会在前两次会议中均未采取任何行动。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利转变立场，支持市场普遍预期的政策宽松举措。此前多项数据显示，近期经 济增长、就业市场及价格压力均呈下滑趋势。随着本周数据显示通胀率意外降至八个月低点，英国央行 现预计明年春季通胀率将"更接近"2%的目标。 政策制定委员会表示，当前证据表明明年借贷成本将继续下降。但声明新措辞警示，随着央行逐步接近 中性利率，未来降息决策将面临微妙权衡。 "我们仍认为利率将循序渐进下行， ...

12月3日，波兰央行将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%。 12月3日，波兰央行将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%。 ...

Core Points - The Bank of England decided to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The decision reflects a pause in the previous trend of quarterly rate cuts since August 2024 [1][2] - The current economic conditions indicate a high overall inflation rate, but risks from weak demand are more pronounced [2][4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England predicts that the inflation rate will approach 3% by early 2026 and reach the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [3] - GDP growth forecasts have been adjusted, with 2025 expected at 1.5% (up from 1.25%), 2026 at 1.2% (down from 1.25%), 2027 at 1.6% (up from 1.5%), and 2028 at 1.8% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - The decision to keep rates unchanged was passed with a 5-4 vote, with Governor Bailey casting the decisive vote [5] - Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are likely but depend on confirming that inflation is moving towards the 2% target [5][4] - The upcoming autumn budget announcement is expected to influence future monetary policy decisions [7][8] Currency Impact - Following the announcement, the British pound fell approximately 30 points against the US dollar, trading at 1.30606 [6] - Analysts predict continued pressure on the pound, with potential further depreciation if rate cuts occur in December [6][8] Fiscal Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget is anticipated to include tax increases to address fiscal shortfalls, which may suppress consumer demand and alleviate inflationary pressures [7][8] - Uncertainty surrounding the budget has led to a cautious approach from businesses and households, potentially stifling economic activity [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% on September 17, 2025, amidst internal disagreements among decision-makers [2][3] - There is a split among the Federal Reserve officials, with 10 out of 19 supporting two more rate cuts this year, while 7 officials oppose further cuts due to concerns about inflation [3][7] - The market initially reacted positively to the rate cut, but concerns about rising unemployment risks and economic cooling led to a decline in stock prices shortly after the announcement [5][10] Group 2 - Economic indicators show a GDP growth of 1.6% and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, but hiring has slowed down significantly, with a 20% decrease in companies' willingness to hire [3] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot revealed a division, with some officials advocating for maintaining the current rate due to persistent inflation risks [3][10] - Political pressures are mounting, with former President Trump calling for quicker rate cuts, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, marking the eleventh rate cut since the start of the easing cycle in early 2024, aimed at addressing a weak economic environment [1][7]. Economic Outlook - A survey of 24 economists indicated expectations for the Bank of Mexico to reduce the key rate to 7.50% during the September 25 meeting, with projections suggesting a further decline to 7.00% by the end of 2024 and additional cuts in 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Mexico anticipates a slowdown in global economic activity in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, influenced by ongoing trade tensions and a deceleration in both global and U.S. economies [3][4]. Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate in Mexico rose from 3.51% to 3.74% between July and mid-September, while core inflation slightly increased from 4.23% to 4.26% [4]. - The Bank of Mexico has adjusted its overall inflation forecast, expecting it to reach the target level of 3% by the third quarter of 2026, despite a slight upward revision in core inflation predictions [4][7]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The decision to lower the benchmark rate was influenced by the assessment of current inflation conditions, exchange rate trends, and the impact of global trade policy changes [7]. - The Bank of Mexico's board will continue to evaluate the possibility of further rate cuts, ensuring alignment with the goal of achieving a sustainable convergence of overall inflation to the target [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, marking the eleventh rate cut since the beginning of the easing cycle initiated in early 2024 to address a weak economic environment [2][9]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On September 25, the Bank of Mexico's board decided to reduce the overnight interbank rate target by 25 basis points to 7.50% [9]. - A Reuters survey indicated that all 24 economists polled expected this rate cut [5]. Economic Outlook - The median forecast suggests that the benchmark rate may drop to 7.00% by the end of this year, with further reductions anticipated in early 2026 [6]. - The Bank of Mexico expects global economic activity to expand at a slower pace in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, influenced by ongoing trade tensions [6]. Inflation Trends - From July to mid-September, the overall inflation rate increased from 3.51% to 3.74%, while core inflation slightly rose from 4.23% to 4.26% [7]. - The Bank of Mexico anticipates that overall inflation will reach the target level by the third quarter of 2026, despite upward risks to inflation forecasts [7]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The board believes that continuing to lower the benchmark rate is appropriate given the current inflation situation, economic activity weakness, and potential impacts from global trade policy changes [9]. - Future rate cuts will be evaluated based on all inflation-related factors, ensuring alignment with the goal of achieving a 3% inflation target [9].