特朗普对美联储的干预动向 Wmax通过持续跟踪观察到，特朗普正以多重举措试图影响美联储决策。他不仅对美联储主席提出公开批评并施压，更试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，同时 推动其首席经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰进入联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），明确要求将利率降低3个百分点。 在Wmax的专业研判中，这一行为呈现出鲜明的两面性解读：支持者将其视为对美联储长期通胀目标失准、群体思维固化的必要改革，认为2024年大选前降 息更偏向民主党连任诉求；批评者则担忧这是典型的党派政治接管，意图复刻保守派主导最高法院的路径，在FOMC构建支持低利率的"超级多数派"。 基准偏向情景：若美联储受政治导向影响，更侧重维持低失业率而非锚定通胀目标，降息频次将较基准情景增加两次。市场会快速识别这一政策转向，导致 通胀预期锚定松动，物价涨幅逐步攀升至3%。 极端接管情景：若美联储完全屈服于政治压力，将政策利率降至1%并持续维持，即便通胀数据恶化也不调整，短期会呈现虚假繁荣。但通胀预期将显著走 高，当物价涨幅突破4%后，市场会将美联储独立性丧失定价为体制性转变，五年期借贷成本可能攀升3个百分点，重现1970年代末期的利率波动。2026年的 表面繁荣 ...

不仅欧洲，日本前首相安倍晋三曾严厉批评时任央行行长白川方明在对抗通缩方面作为不足，并在2013 年亲自挑选黑田东彦接任。当时，白川方明在任期结束前数周提前辞职。黑田东彦随后为配合安倍晋三 重新推动日本经济增长，长期维持负利率，并大规模债券购买计划，成为政府主要债权人，也引发传统 派央行人士质疑。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓此前对一财记者表示，在日本执政联盟于近期参议院选举中失 利后，接下来如果石破茂辞职，不论谁接替他，在财政政策上都会更倾向于扩张。但目前，市场仍在计 价日本央行继续加息，试图以此倒逼日本央行保持独立性，不受政治因素影响。但不排除日本央行再次 受到政治影响的可能性。 全球央行官员担心，如若连美联储都屈服于政治压力，将树立一个危险的先例。 从紧盯美联储主席鲍威尔，到美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职，再到最新的宣布解雇另一名理事库克， 随着美国总统特朗普对美联储独立性的威胁层层递进，全球其他央行开始担心，如果全球最重要央行之 一的美联储，都屈服于政治压力，或者特朗普找到罢免理事会成员、操控票委的策略，这将会给欧洲、 日本等全球其他地区树立一个危险的先例，围绕美联储的政治风暴也可能席卷他们。 也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by former President Trump has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to immediate reactions in the financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [1][15][29]. Group 1: Dismissal and Market Reactions - Trump's announcement to dismiss Cook was made via social media, claiming it was "immediate" and led to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][15]. - The dollar index fell by 0.3%, dropping below 98.3, while gold prices reached a historical high of over $2600 per ounce [15]. - The market's reaction indicates investor concerns regarding the potential challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][17]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - Cook's position was nominated by President Biden and is set until 2038, raising questions about the legality of Trump's actions [6][24]. - Trump's justification for the dismissal revolves around allegations of Cook submitting false information regarding her housing loans, but the legal basis for such a dismissal remains uncertain [4][24]. - The potential for a court battle over Cook's dismissal could further politicize the Federal Reserve, impacting its traditional independence [24][26]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Risks - The Federal Reserve has historically been viewed as an independent entity, crucial for maintaining global financial stability [10][11]. - Trump's actions are seen as a direct challenge to this independence, reminiscent of past political pressures on central banks, which have led to economic instability [20][28]. - If the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure, it could undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to a loss of market confidence in U.S. monetary policy [17][29].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and reshape its leadership is raising global concerns among central banks about political interference in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Central Bank Independence - Central bank officials from around the world expressed strong support for Powell's independence during the Jackson Hole meeting, viewing any loss of independence as a direct threat to global economic stability [2]. - Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank, emphasized that independence is essential for price stability and should not be taken for granted [2]. - Concerns were raised that if the Fed succumbs to political pressure, it could set a dangerous precedent for political attacks on monetary policy independence globally [2][3]. Group 2: Global Political Pressure on Central Banks - Trump's actions are not isolated; central banks in Latvia, Slovenia, and Japan have faced similar political pressures [3]. - The Latvian central bank governor faced criticism for not aligning with government wishes, while Slovenia has been without a central bank governor due to political disputes [3]. - Japan's former Prime Minister Abe criticized the previous central bank governor, leading to a change in leadership that resulted in aggressive monetary policies [3]. Group 3: Potential Market Reactions - Currently, financial markets do not show deep concern regarding the Fed's independence, with strong stock market performance and stable bond yields [4]. - However, if the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to significant market turmoil, with investors demanding higher risk premiums for holding U.S. Treasuries [5]. - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could encourage governments, especially populist ones, to exert control over their central banks, potentially leading to rising global inflation and increased market volatility [5].

8月25日，据媒体报道，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度研讨会期间，来自世界各国的央行官 员担心，如果全球最具影响力的央行屈服于政治压力，将为其他国家的政治干预开创危险先例。 特朗普公开施压美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并试图驱逐理事库克（Lisa Cook），这种做法已经引起国际 央行界的高度关注。欧洲央行决策者Olli Rehn表示： "对美联储出于政治动机的攻击会在精神上波及世界其他地区，包括欧洲"。 报道指出，特朗普对美联储的施压并非孤例，日本、拉脱维亚等多国央行都面临类似政治压力。 分析人士指出，如果美联储的独立性受到损害，可能引发金融市场重大动荡，投资者将要求持有美债获 得更高风险溢价，并重新评估美债作为全球金融体系命脉的地位。各国央行已开始为这种冲击做准备， 提醒银行关注美元敞口。 全球央行官员力挺鲍威尔 报道称，在杰克逊霍尔会议期间，国际央行界展现出对美联储独立性的坚定支持。当鲍威尔登台演讲 时，与会者起立鼓掌表达支持。 据接受媒体采访的十几位各国央行官员透露，美联储因失去独立性而削弱抗通胀能力的情形，被视为对 全球央行地位和经济稳定的直接威胁。德国央行行长、欧洲央行管委会成员Joachim Na ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts reflects deeper issues surrounding the independence of the Fed, which is crucial for the stability of the US dollar and the global financial system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is essential for maintaining the predictability of the dollar's value, which in turn supports global demand for dollar-denominated assets [5][17]. - A loss of independence could transform the dollar from a global "value anchor" into a domestic "political tool," undermining its credibility and accelerating the diversification of global reserve currencies [5][17]. Group 2: Historical Lessons - Historical examples illustrate the dangers of political pressure on the Fed, such as the 1971 Nixon administration's pressure leading to the "stagflation" period, where inflation peaked at 15% and unemployment exceeded 10% [6]. - The market's reaction to political threats against the Fed, such as Trump's threats to dismiss Powell, indicates a deep-seated fear of political interference, which can lead to significant market volatility [7]. Group 3: Background and Evolution of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 as a response to the financial crises of the 19th century, with a design aimed at preventing political interference in monetary policy [9][10]. - Legal safeguards have been put in place to ensure the Fed's independence, including restrictions on presidential dismissals and the separation of fiscal and monetary policy [10][11][12][13]. Group 4: Political and Monetary Discipline - The historical conflicts between the Fed and US presidents often arise from differing time horizons, with presidents focused on short-term electoral cycles and the Fed prioritizing long-term economic stability [16]. - The current political climate, characterized by rising debt levels and the temptation for debt monetization, poses ongoing challenges to the Fed's independence [16][17].