特朗普政府针对美联储发起的最新法律攻势可能正面临事与愿违的风险，这一举动不仅未能逼退现任美 联储主席鲍威尔，反而加剧了外界对其在2026年5月主席任期结束后继续留任美联储理事的猜测。 Northern Trust Asset Management全球宏观主管、鲍威尔的前顾问Antulio Bomfim指出，尽管鲍威尔本人 并不渴望成为"影子主席"，但他作为前任主席的声望、经验以及捍卫机构的记录，将不可避免地使他被 视为美联储内部的另一种权威声音。即便鲍威尔主观上不寻求对抗，客观上的"双重中心"效应也会让投 资者在解读货币政策信号时无所适从。 这种情况不仅会让特朗普提名的新主席难以确立权威，还可能导致市场波动加剧。投资者习惯于从美联 储主席的言论中寻找政策指引，而在一个存在"影子主席"的委员会中，政策沟通的一致性将面临严峻挑 战。 传票风波与鲍威尔的强硬回击 长期以来，鲍威尔对其未来计划讳莫如深，大多数美联储观察家此前预计他将在明年5月离开央行。然 而，司法部的传票改变了这一预期。据报道，传票涉及鲍威尔去年6月关于美联储总部翻新工程的国会 证词。 1月11日，鲍威尔通过书面和视频声明进行了罕见且激烈的反驳。他表 ...

Wangdaizi(wangdaizi@sohu.com) 2026年1月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔突遭刑事调查，司法部大陪审团传票引发市场地震。特朗普政府与 美联储的独立战争全面爆发，前主席格林斯潘、伯南克联名痛批"史无前例政治干预"，而"影子主席"暗 战已悄然启动——哈塞特、贝森特等热门人选浮出水面，鲍威尔或留任理事形成双重权力中心，美联储 将迎40年来最大治理危机。 华盛顿时间1月11日深夜，美联储官网发布一段由主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔亲自录制的视频声明，瞬间引爆全 球金融市场。这位68岁的律师出身的美联储掌门人面色严峻地宣布："我绝不会向任何政治压力屈服， 包括来自白宫的威胁。"此番强硬表态背后，是司法部9日向美联储发出的刑事调查传票——这场调查直 接指向鲍威尔本人，成为美国历史上首次针对在任美联储主席的刑事调查。 而市场的担忧，远不止于调查本身。特朗普将于15日结束对美联储新主席候选人的面试，热门人选包括 现任国家经济委员会主席哈塞特。哈塞特12日在CNBC节目中的言论引发轩然大波——他公开支持特朗 普"美联储受政治驱动"的指控，并具体点出2016年12月加息和2024年11月降息"都对民主党有利"。这种 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will be divided into a "buy the expectation" phase before the official appointment of the next Fed Chair in May 2026 and a "sell the reality" phase after the appointment. In the "buy the expectation" phase, the "shadow chair" will guide market expectations towards aggressive rate cuts, leading to specific price movements in major asset classes. In the "sell the reality" phase, the Fed's monetary policy path is likely to be cautious due to various constraints, and the market will shift its focus and face increased volatility. Additionally, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet in 2026 and its potential impact on the market should also be closely monitored [22][27][29]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs I. Key Events for Focus on Fed Independence - The independence of the Fed is the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, influencing global capital flows and commodity pricing. Trump has tried to influence the Fed through various means, such as frequent calls for rate cuts, attempts to dismiss Cook, and appointing new理事. The next key points of focus are the selection of the next Fed Chair and the progress of the dismissal case of Cook, which will affect the market's re - evaluation of the Fed's rate - cut path in 2026 [5][8][11]. II. "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates 2.1 Selection and Appointment Process of the Fed Chair - The process includes candidate selection and evaluation (July - December 2025), where the candidates have been reduced from 11 to 5; the President's official nomination (January 2026), which signals the President's expectation for future monetary policy; the Senate confirmation process (average 4 months), including hearings, committee voting, and full - Senate voting; and the oath - taking ceremony (May 2026) [13][15][16]. 2.2 "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates - Test 1: Candidates must have Fed理事 qualifications. If non -理事 candidates are considered, they may need to fill a即将出现的理事 vacancy first. Key time points to watch are January 21, 2026 (Supreme Court oral debate on Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook) and January 31, 2026 (Miran's理事 term expiration) [18][19]. - Test 2: Senate confirmation faces challenges related to partisan differences and Fed independence. If Hassett is nominated, concerns about his close association with Trump and his past controversial remarks may lead to opposition in the Senate, and the final result depends on the Senate's review and game [20]. III. Market Impact: Expectations and Reality of the Fed's "Shadow Chair" 3.1 "Buy the Expectation" Phase: Before the May 2026 Official Appointment - The "shadow chair" will publicly state an aggressive dovish stance, guiding the market to expect rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar index tends to weaken, US Treasury yields decline, and commodity prices rise, with precious metals being the core target of loose trading. However, conflicts between the "shadow chair" and Powell or setbacks in market expectations may increase asset volatility [27][28]. 3.2 "Sell the Reality" Phase: After the May 2026 Official Appointment - After the new Fed Chair is appointed, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to be "hesitant in decision - making and cautious in implementation" due to economic dual - differentiation, FOMC internal differences, and concerns about Fed independence. The market will shift its focus, and volatility will increase. The US dollar remains weak, and commodities will be more influenced by their own supply - demand [29][30][31]. - In 2026, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet should be closely monitored. If it occurs, it is more of a technical operation for liquidity management, with a scale much smaller than previous QE, and its impact on assets is mainly "liquidity repair" [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four individuals, indicating a significant shift in the political landscape surrounding the Fed's leadership [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The list of potential candidates includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and one unidentified candidate [2][3]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has created an opportunity for the White House to nominate a new member to the Fed Board, potentially influencing monetary policy [3]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest that the White House's intention to appoint a "shadow chair" is aimed at influencing market expectations and monetary policy before Powell's term ends [4]. - The motivation behind this political maneuvering is believed to be linked to alleviating fiscal pressures and stimulating the economy ahead of midterm elections [4]. Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite attempts to influence the Fed, the institution's strong independence and decision-making mechanisms are expected to act as barriers against significant changes in policy direction [6][7]. - Legal restrictions prevent the arbitrary dismissal of the Fed Chair, and recent court rulings have reinforced the Fed's policy independence [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee operates on a two-thirds majority voting system, which currently leans towards maintaining the status quo [6]. Potential Outcomes - Various scenarios are anticipated, including the appointment of a more dovish candidate or a loyal supporter of Trump, with the possibility of undermining Powell's authority before his term ends [4][5]. - The strategy of appointing a politically loyal candidate may lead to concerns about inflation and long-term interest rates, potentially harming the economy [7].

Group 1 - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler unexpectedly raises questions about the Fed's policy execution and potential political maneuvering by President Trump [3][4] - Trump has strategic options regarding the appointment of a new Fed member, including the possibility of appointing a "shadow chair" to influence the selection of the next chair [3][4] - Kugler's departure, occurring without prior notice, increases the risks associated with the Fed's board composition and its future direction [3][4] Group 2 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.767, with a recent increase of 0.38% from an opening price of 8.738 [1] - The silver market shows a bullish short-term trend, with resistance levels identified between 8.779 and 8.900, and support levels between 8.500 and 8.719 [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has reopened discussions about potential political maneuvering within the Fed, particularly regarding Trump's influence on future appointments and policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Implications of Resignation - Waller's unexpected departure creates a vacancy that Trump can strategically fill, potentially appointing a "shadow chair" to challenge current Chair Powell before a permanent successor is named [1][2]. - The timing of Waller's resignation complicates the situation, as the new appointee would only serve a few months before needing Senate confirmation for a longer term [2][4]. Group 2: Trump's Strategic Options - Trump has two main options: appoint a temporary replacement for Waller or expedite the selection of a preferred candidate for the Fed chair position [2][6]. - The "shadow chair" option aligns with Trump's management style, which favors competition and performance evaluation among candidates [4][5]. Group 3: Potential Candidates and Market Reactions - Trump has indicated he is considering several candidates for the Fed chair position, including former Governor Kevin Warsh and current Governor Christopher Waller [7][8]. - Concerns have been raised about Trump's push for significant interest rate cuts, which could undermine the Fed's independence and create market uncertainty [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler on August 8 allows President Trump to seek a successor sooner than anticipated, potentially increasing his influence over the Federal Reserve's operations [2][6]. Group 1: Resignation Details - Kugler's term was originally set to end on January 31, and she was appointed by former President Biden. Her resignation letter expressed honor in serving during a critical time for inflation control and labor market resilience [2][4]. - Kugler's absence from the July FOMC meeting was unusual, and her lack of a substitute for voting raised questions about her departure [2]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Trump's comments suggest that Kugler's resignation may be linked to disagreements with Fed Chair Powell on interest rates, although this claim lacks strong evidence [2][6]. - The vacancy left by Kugler could provide Trump with an opportunity to reshape the Federal Reserve, especially as he seeks candidates for Powell's position when his term ends in May [6][7]. Group 3: Current Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC recently saw two governors dissenting on the decision to maintain interest rates, a rare occurrence since 1993, indicating potential internal divisions [2][7]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve may shift towards a more balanced "hawk-dove" dynamic if Trump appoints a dovish candidate to fill Kugler's seat [8][9].

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggests that Powell should resign from the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends in May 2026, and the selection process for the next Fed Chair has officially begun [1] - Potential candidates for the next Fed Chair include Mnuchin himself, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, with Christopher Waller also being considered as a dark horse [1] - Hassett has publicly criticized the Fed's decisions, indicating that the Fed's independence should not shield it from presidential scrutiny, especially regarding interest rate policies [1][2] Group 2 - There is increasing criticism of Powell from the Trump administration, with calls for a 3% interest rate cut, which could save the government $1 trillion annually [2] - Concerns are raised about the potential impact of political pressure on the Fed's credibility, with industry leaders emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for maintaining stable inflation and economic growth [2][3] - Analysts warn that any perceived weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to significant volatility in financial markets, including potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" by Trump to oversee the Federal Reserve, reflecting tensions between the White House and the central bank regarding monetary policy and interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Current inflation slowdown and a weakening labor market are typically sufficient reasons for interest rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve remains cautious due to ongoing inflation concerns [1]. - Trump's potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" aims to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions without directly attempting to dismiss Powell [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires seven votes for policy changes, making it challenging to find support for aggressive rate cuts among current members [1]. Group 2: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The list of potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chair has narrowed, with Trump expected to announce his preferences soon [3]. - Key candidates include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and Kevin Hassett, each with varying degrees of favorability towards aggressive rate cuts [3][5]. - Paul Tudor Jones suggests that Trump will likely choose a highly dovish candidate to reduce interest costs amid rising budget deficits [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2025, exceeding 6% of GDP, with debt financing costs estimated at $1.2 trillion this year [4]. - Lowering interest rates is seen as a straightforward method for the Trump administration to alleviate some of the financial burdens associated with high debt servicing costs [4]. Group 4: Candidate Evaluations - Each potential candidate has strengths and weaknesses; for instance, Warsh is known for his independence but leans hawkish on inflation [5][6]. - Bessent is gaining popularity due to his market credibility but lacks monetary policy experience and may be viewed as too close to the Trump administration [5]. - Waller's recent comments on potential rate cuts may endear him to Trump, but his past support for rate cuts before elections could be a liability [6].