Core Viewpoint - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four individuals, indicating a significant shift in the political landscape surrounding the Fed's leadership [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The list of potential candidates includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and one unidentified candidate [2][3]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has created an opportunity for the White House to nominate a new member to the Fed Board, potentially influencing monetary policy [3]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest that the White House's intention to appoint a "shadow chair" is aimed at influencing market expectations and monetary policy before Powell's term ends [4]. - The motivation behind this political maneuvering is believed to be linked to alleviating fiscal pressures and stimulating the economy ahead of midterm elections [4]. Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite attempts to influence the Fed, the institution's strong independence and decision-making mechanisms are expected to act as barriers against significant changes in policy direction [6][7]. - Legal restrictions prevent the arbitrary dismissal of the Fed Chair, and recent court rulings have reinforced the Fed's policy independence [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee operates on a two-thirds majority voting system, which currently leans towards maintaining the status quo [6]. Potential Outcomes - Various scenarios are anticipated, including the appointment of a more dovish candidate or a loyal supporter of Trump, with the possibility of undermining Powell's authority before his term ends [4][5]. - The strategy of appointing a politically loyal candidate may lead to concerns about inflation and long-term interest rates, potentially harming the economy [7].

美联储理事库格勒(Adriana Kugler)周五出人意料地宣布将于8月8日提前辞职，这意味着美 国总统特朗普将能比预期更早地，为这一至关重要的美联储理事席位寻找继任者，乃至借此 机会更深入地插手美联储事务…… 库格勒的任期原定于1月31日结束，她是由美国前任总统拜登任命的。 "能够在美联储理事会任职，是我一生中的莫大荣幸，"库格勒在提交的辞职信中写道。该 信目前已在美联储官网发布，但未说明她提前离职的具体原因。信中特别提到，"能在实现 抑制通胀与维持强劲韧性劳动力市场的双重使命关键时期履职，我深感荣幸。" 值得一提的是，库格勒本周三就已极其不同寻常地缺席了美联储7月议息会议，同时并未安 排其他人替她投票，美联储称其因"私人事务"请假。 而在本周的议息会议上，当联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)对维持利率不变的决议进行表决 时，则出现了多达两名理事持反对意见的罕见局面——这是1993年以来的首次。 对此，美国特朗普周五下午对记者表示，"我认为库格勒的辞职，是因为她与美联储主席鲍 威尔在利率问题上存在分歧。美联储理事会现在有了一个空缺席位，我对此感到非常高 兴。" 不过，库格勒提前辞职的真相，是否真如向来口无遮拦 ...

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggests that Powell should resign from the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends in May 2026, and the selection process for the next Fed Chair has officially begun [1] - Potential candidates for the next Fed Chair include Mnuchin himself, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, with Christopher Waller also being considered as a dark horse [1] - Hassett has publicly criticized the Fed's decisions, indicating that the Fed's independence should not shield it from presidential scrutiny, especially regarding interest rate policies [1][2] Group 2 - There is increasing criticism of Powell from the Trump administration, with calls for a 3% interest rate cut, which could save the government $1 trillion annually [2] - Concerns are raised about the potential impact of political pressure on the Fed's credibility, with industry leaders emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for maintaining stable inflation and economic growth [2][3] - Analysts warn that any perceived weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to significant volatility in financial markets, including potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" by Trump to oversee the Federal Reserve, reflecting tensions between the White House and the central bank regarding monetary policy and interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Current inflation slowdown and a weakening labor market are typically sufficient reasons for interest rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve remains cautious due to ongoing inflation concerns [1]. - Trump's potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" aims to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions without directly attempting to dismiss Powell [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires seven votes for policy changes, making it challenging to find support for aggressive rate cuts among current members [1]. Group 2: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The list of potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chair has narrowed, with Trump expected to announce his preferences soon [3]. - Key candidates include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and Kevin Hassett, each with varying degrees of favorability towards aggressive rate cuts [3][5]. - Paul Tudor Jones suggests that Trump will likely choose a highly dovish candidate to reduce interest costs amid rising budget deficits [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2025, exceeding 6% of GDP, with debt financing costs estimated at $1.2 trillion this year [4]. - Lowering interest rates is seen as a straightforward method for the Trump administration to alleviate some of the financial burdens associated with high debt servicing costs [4]. Group 4: Candidate Evaluations - Each potential candidate has strengths and weaknesses; for instance, Warsh is known for his independence but leans hawkish on inflation [5][6]. - Bessent is gaining popularity due to his market credibility but lacks monetary policy experience and may be viewed as too close to the Trump administration [5]. - Waller's recent comments on potential rate cuts may endear him to Trump, but his past support for rate cuts before elections could be a liability [6].