Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates more than the market currently anticipates [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Algebris Investments analyst Gabriele Foa suggests that trade tensions and tariff developments could result in a lower endpoint for the rate-cutting cycle than what the market expects [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the ECB is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in December [1] Group 2: Timeframe for Effects - Foa notes that the spillover effects of tariffs on Europe may take longer to manifest [1]

德国软件巨头SAP周二美股盘后公布的第二季度业绩显示，美元走软带来的汇率压力导致该公司云业务收 入不及分析师预期，美股ADR盘后一度下跌3%。 以下是SAP二季度财报要点： 主要财务数据： 总营收：SAP第二季度总营收达到90.27亿欧元，同比增长9%（按不变汇率计算增长12%）， 不及分析师预期的90.7亿欧元。 云ERP套件收入：SAP第二季度云ERP套件（包括S/4HANA Cloud）收入达到44.22亿欧元，同 比增长30%（按不变汇率34%）。 云积压订单：SAP第二季度云积压订单达180.52亿欧元，同比增长22%（按不变汇率28%）， 不及分析师预期的185亿欧元。 云ERP套件：SAP第二季度云ERP套件（包括S/4HANA Cloud）收入达到44.22亿欧元，同比增 长30%（按不变汇率34%）。 云计算与软件营收：SAP第二季度云计算及软件营收达到79.7亿欧元，同比增长11%，略低于 分析师平均预期的79.9亿欧元。 云业务毛利：非IFRS口径下，SAP第二季度云业务毛利润增长至38.56亿欧元，毛利率达 75.2%，较2024年第二季度的73.3%明显提升。 运营利润：SAP第二季 ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价维持震荡。伦敦现货黄金收于3，350美元/盎司（周环比-0.2%），国内AU9999黄金收于774元/ 克（周环比0.4%）。 美国6月通胀温和上行，略不及预期。6月核心CPI环比回升至0.23%，不及预期的0.3%。6月CPI温和上 行主要由两类短期因素推动：一是以伊冲突引发的油价上涨，并传导至机票价格回升，但这只是短期事 件性驱动的上涨，目前油价已回落，不构成长期通胀风险；二是关税驱动的核心商品中服装价格的上 涨。除去机票价格的短期扰动，核心服务其他分项涨幅整体较小，并且占比最大的住房价格同环比均稳 步回落，显示供给侧的商品关税通胀尚未通过工资传导至需求侧的服务通胀，因此关税通胀可能只是一 次性的供给侧冲击。最新数据显示，市场预期年内美联储或仍降息2次。 当前关税不确定性仍较高。特朗普最新宣称，美国可能在8月1日前对进口药品和半导体加征关税。此 外，美国已向多个贸易伙伴发出单边关税通知函，但表示将继续进行谈判。市场对新关税表态的反应平 淡，更多视为特朗普贸易谈判的筹码，但预期越低，超预期的可能也越大，因此若关税最终落地，市场 避险情绪或再度激增。 展望后市，美国贸易保 ...

加拿大央行调查：关税及相关不确定性持续对企业前景产生重大影响。 ...

周一（7月21日）亚市盘中，白银期货维持震荡偏多，最新沪银主力价格报9272元/千克，涨幅0.94%， 对美债增长的担忧和关税的进一步消息可能会让白银继续受到关注，目前看来，银价得到了很好的底部 支撑。 【要闻速递】 在关税方面，印尼仍在制定与美国新贸易协议的细节，而美国财政部长贝森特则告诉日本首相有可能达 成"良好协议"。 报道援引不具名消息人士称，特朗普对欧盟要求降低汽车关税的最新提议无动于衷，并将按计划维持 25%的汽车关税。 【技术分析】 当前贵金属策略上建议维持多头思路，沪银主力合约参考运行区间9095-10000元/千克。工信部称汽 车、钢铁、有色、石化等重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，银价跟随有色金属价格小幅走高。沪银溢 价维持至350元/千克左右关注。降息预期依旧高涨，银价支撑仍存。沪银主力合约参考运行区间9095- 10000元/千克，上方阻力关注9300-9400，下方支撑看8900-9000。 本周，美国对印尼征收的威胁性关税税率从32%降至19%后，印尼仍在就最近与美国达成的贸易协议的 细节进行谈判，并正在寻求对其出口的棕榈油和镍给予豁免。印尼经济官员称，印尼已要求美国对其出 口的可可 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds in May, with a notable increase of $32.4 billion, bringing the total holdings by major foreign investors to $9.0458 trillion [1] - Japan, the UK, and mainland China remain the top three holders of U.S. debt, with Japan and the UK slightly increasing their holdings, while China reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month, selling $900 million in May [1][2] - Canada significantly increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $61.7 billion in May, reaching a historical high of $430.1 billion, moving up to the fifth position among major foreign investors [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of U.S. fiscal policies on the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, noting that despite concerns over the U.S. deficit, the fundamental demand for these bonds remains strong due to their market depth and liquidity [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a large tax and spending bill in May, which is projected to increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next ten years, raising concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term issuer rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing the ongoing large fiscal deficits and their implications for government debt and interest expenses [3] Group 3 - In May, U.S. Treasury investors faced multiple challenges, including uncertainty over tariffs, rising government debt, and a downgrade in sovereign ratings, leading to a decline of over 1.2% in Treasury indices [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, despite stable unemployment rates [4] - Fed Chairman Powell noted that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in economic data, and the evolving policies of the Trump administration contribute to economic uncertainty [4][5]

智通财经7月17日电，台积电表示，由于关税及其他不确定性，对第四季度的预测更为保守。 ...

Group 1 - Volvo Cars reported Q2 revenue of 93.5 billion Swedish Krona, which is below the IBES estimate of 89.069 billion Swedish Krona [1] - The company experienced a net loss of 7.51 billion Swedish Krona in Q2 [1] - Demand continues to be affected by macroeconomic conditions, tariff-related uncertainties, and increased competition, leading to ongoing pressure on production and profitability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Volvo Cars is facing ongoing pressure on production and profitability due to macroeconomic conditions, tariff-related uncertainties, and intensified competition [1]

Core Viewpoint - Volvo Cars is facing challenges in demand due to macroeconomic conditions, uncertainties related to tariffs, and increased competition [1] Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is impacting consumer demand for Volvo vehicles [1] - Tariff-related uncertainties are contributing to the challenges faced by the company [1] - Competition in the automotive industry has intensified, further affecting Volvo's market position [1]