Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing significant distress and challenges for 35 million small businesses in the United States, impacting their ability to plan and operate effectively [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Uncertainty - Over 97% of companies engaged in goods imports in the U.S. are small businesses, highlighting their vulnerability to tariff-related uncertainties [4]. - More than 70% of small business owners reported that the fluctuating trade policies under the Trump administration created a "whiplash effect," complicating their planning processes [4][5]. - Small business owners often lack the resources and analyst teams that larger companies have, forcing them to spend valuable time on trade policy news and paperwork instead of focusing on core operations [4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Small Businesses - The unpredictable nature of trade policies has been recognized by both critics and supporters of the Trump administration, with frequent changes undermining long-standing trade relationships [5]. - A survey of 4,000 small business owners identified the greatest challenge posed by tariff policies as the resulting uncertainty, which disproportionately affects small businesses operating on thinner profit margins [5]. - The Small Business Administration, which could provide crucial support for small businesses in adjusting supply chains, has seen a 43% reduction in staff and the closure of offices in major cities, further complicating the situation for small enterprises [5]. Group 3: Economic Significance of Small Businesses - Small businesses are vital to the U.S. economy, employing nearly half of the American workforce and serving as job creators in communities across the nation [5]. - The challenges faced by small businesses extend beyond their individual operations, impacting the broader economic landscape of the United States [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both sugar and cotton are "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the consecutive drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. Although the growth of sugar beets is generally good, recent heavy rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area makes it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: From August 2, 2025, to August 3, 2025, the price of US sugar remained at $16.2, with a 0.00% change, and the price of US cotton remained at $66.42, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 1, 2025, to August 4, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6030.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming dropped from 5880.0 to 5865.0, a - 0.26% change; the cotton index 328 dropped from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.70% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang dropped from 15400.0 to 15200.0, a - 1.30% change [3] 2. Spread Data - From August 2, 2025, to August 3, 2025, all spreads (SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc.) and basis (sugar 01 basis, cotton 01 basis, etc.) remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] 3. Import Price and Profit Data - From August 1, 2025, to August 4, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.5, with a 0.00% change, and the sugar import profit remained at 1597.0, with a 0.00% change [3] 4. Option Data - For options, the implied volatility of SR509C5700 is 0.0804, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.11; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 is 0.0795; the implied volatility of CF509C13600 is 0.1024, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.12; the implied volatility of CF509P13600 is 0.0983 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Data - From August 1, 2025, to August 4, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 19443.0 to 19373.0, a - 0.36% change, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8807.0 to 8684.0, a - 1.40% change [3] Group 4: Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent quarterly earnings report reveals a decline in net profit and raises concerns about the impact of tariffs and trade policies on its operations and investments [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Berkshire achieved revenue of $92.515 billion, down from $93.653 billion year-over-year, but above market expectations of $91.963 billion [2]. - Operating profit was $11.16 billion, a 3.8% decrease year-over-year, attributed to lower underwriting profits from its insurance segment, despite growth in profits from railroads, energy, manufacturing, services, and retail [2]. - Net profit fell to $12.37 billion, significantly down 59% from $30.348 billion in the same quarter last year, exceeding market expectations of $10.703 billion [3]. Earnings Per Share - Earnings per share were reported at $8,601, surpassing market expectations of $7,443, but down from $21,122 in the previous year [4]. Cash Reserves and Stock Sales - Cash reserves decreased by 1% to $344 billion, marking the first decline in three years, down from $347 billion in the previous quarter [5]. - Berkshire continued a cautious approach to the stock market, net selling approximately $3 billion in stocks during the quarter, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of net stock sales [6]. Investment Strategy - The top five holdings of Berkshire, including American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron, accounted for 67% of the fair value of its portfolio [6]. - Stock investment income for the quarter was $6.4 billion, but there was a net loss of $710 million for the first half of the year [7]. Stock Buybacks - The company has been cautious with stock buybacks, not repurchasing any shares in the first half of the year, maintaining a standstill for the fourth consecutive quarter [8]. Impairment and Future Outlook - Berkshire recorded a $3.8 billion impairment on its investment in Kraft Heinz, reducing its book value from over $17 billion at the end of 2017 to $8.4 billion [12]. - Analysts suggest that Berkshire may be preparing to exit its investment in Kraft Heinz, as the company has faced significant stock price declines and is considering business divestitures [13]. - Concerns have been raised about Berkshire's performance amid management transition and market conditions, with some analysts rating the company as "hold" [13].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's financial results for Q2 showed significant fluctuations, with revenue exceeding market expectations but net profit experiencing a dramatic decline compared to the previous year [2][5]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $92.515 billion, surpassing market expectations of $91.963 billion, but down from $93.653 billion year-over-year [2][4]. - Q2 net profit was $12.370 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.703 billion, but down 59% from $30.348 billion in the same quarter last year [2][4]. Investment Performance - Investment net income for Q2 was $4.970 billion, a significant drop from $18.750 billion in the same period last year [5]. - The fair value of Berkshire's top five holdings accounted for 67% of its portfolio, including American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [5]. Market Conditions - In Q2, U.S. stock markets experienced volatility due to tariff uncertainties, with the Dow Jones up 4.98%, Nasdaq up 17.75%, and S&P 500 up 10.57%, while Berkshire's stock price fell 8.72% [6]. - Trade tensions accelerated in the first half of 2025, posing threats to Berkshire's diversified businesses, with revenue declines reported in its clothing and toy brands [6]. Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett announced plans to retire by the end of the year, raising concerns among investors despite having named Greg Abel as his successor in 2021 [7]. Stock Management - In Q2, Berkshire sold approximately $3 billion in stocks, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of net stock sales, and did not engage in stock buybacks [8]. - As of the end of Q2, Berkshire's cash and cash equivalents stood at $344.1 billion, slightly down from $347.7 billion in the previous quarter, with Buffett indicating a cautious approach to investment opportunities [8].

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：关税不确定性抑制商业和家庭支出。 ...

Group 1 - The average tariff in the U.S. is currently estimated to be slightly below 13.5%, significantly higher than last year's 2.5%, with potential increases to 16% if an agreement is reached with the EU [2] - The trade barriers established by the U.S. under the Trump administration are expected to have a long-term negative impact on global trade and investment, with predictions of a $2 trillion economic shock by the end of 2027 [2] - Major U.S. companies like General Motors, Dow, and Tesla have reported that tariffs have negatively affected their profitability, although there has not yet been a significant inflationary impact [5][6] Group 2 - The uncertainty caused by tariffs is leading to a significant delay in investment decisions among global companies, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see approach [3][7] - The construction and equipment procurement data in the U.S. are weak, contributing to a forecasted GDP growth rate of around 1% for the second quarter, indicating stagnation in non-residential investment [6][7] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) globally, with a notable drop of 11% in 2024, as investors face increased uncertainty [8][9] Group 3 - The recent decision to impose tariffs on tomatoes from Mexico has adversely affected companies like NatureSweet Tomatoes, which relies on imports for production inputs [8] - The automotive industry in Japan is experiencing similar concerns, with a predicted GDP impact of 0.55% from new tariffs, which is still above Japan's average growth rate [9] - The overall economic indicators related to trade are expected to show contraction this year, reflecting a broader trend of investment fatigue and slow productivity growth [10]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Companies - The average tariff in the U.S. is currently estimated to be slightly below 13.5%, significantly higher than last year's 2.5% [1] - Major companies like General Motors, Dow, and Tesla have experienced profit erosion due to tariffs, although there has not been a significant inflationary impact yet [4] - NatureSweet Tomatoes, a major tomato producer, has had its expansion plans halted due to tariffs on imports from Mexico, affecting its production costs [7] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Investment Uncertainty - Oxford Economics predicts that the uncertainty caused by tariffs will significantly impact investment decisions, with effects expected to manifest over two quarters [6] - The GDPNow model forecasts a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to around 1% for the second quarter, influenced by weak construction and equipment procurement data [6] - The World Bank highlights that unclear policy directions may lead companies to delay restructuring decisions, contributing to a prolonged period of weak trade growth and investment [9] Group 3: Global Trade and Investment Trends - The global foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to decline again this year, with tariffs causing uncertainty that affects investment projects aimed at restructuring supply chains [8] - European automakers, such as Volkswagen, are facing increased costs due to tariffs, leading to lowered profit expectations for brands like Audi and Porsche [8] - Japan's automotive industry is also experiencing challenges, with a significant drop in exports to the U.S. and concerns over the impact of tariffs on GDP growth [8]

马来西亚央行因关税不确定性下调经济增长预期 金十数据7月28日讯，马来西亚央行下调了2025年的增长预测，以应对特朗普征收关税的影响。马来西 亚央行目前预计，该国经济增速将在4%至4.8%之间，低于此前预测的4.5%至5.5%。该行还将今年的通 胀预期从2%-3.5%下调至1.5%-2.3%，因成本和需求前景有所放缓。声明显示："最新的增长预测考虑了 各种关税情景，从持续提高关税到更有利的贸易谈判结果。这一预测仍然受到全球经济下行或上行不确 定性的影响。"该行表示，有利的贸易谈判结果、主要经济体的促增长政策、对电气和电子产品的持续 需求以及强劲的旅游活动可能会提高马来西亚的出口和增长前景。 ...

过去几年，严重依赖进口的美国纺织服装行业已然承受供应链调整的巨大压力。今年以来，特朗普政府 推出包括所谓"对等关税"在内的一系列新关税措施，给这一行业带来更大冲击。半年一度的纽约纺织服 装展日前开幕，主办方在展会首日安排了两场与关税和供应链相关的对话和研讨活动，现场座无虚席， 部分观众站立旁听。美国时尚行业协会总裁朱丽娅·休斯在活动中表示，当前供应链充满不确定性，所 有人都将"不确定性"作为描述行业决策困难的关键词。（新华社） ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Major semiconductor companies are set to hold earnings calls, including foundry companies like UMC and testing interface provider Chroma, as well as chip giant MediaTek, focusing on recent financial results, the impact of the TWD exchange rate, and future market outlook [1][2] - UMC's June consolidated revenue reached NT$44.7 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 26% and a year-on-year increase of 9%, outperforming last year's figures [1] - Despite the increase in shipments, UMC's Q2 revenue decreased to NT$116.9 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of approximately 2.1%, primarily due to a 12% appreciation of the TWD against the USD [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - MediaTek's Q2 consolidated revenue was NT$1503.6 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.9% but a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, marking the third-highest quarterly performance in history [2] - MediaTek's cumulative revenue for the first half of the year reached NT$3036.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 16.4% [2] - UMC will discuss its latest financial performance and operational outlook for Q3 and the full year during its earnings call, addressing concerns about wafer shipment momentum and capacity utilization [2] Group 3: Technological Developments - Chroma has introduced several advanced testing solutions, including a high-speed 112Gbps PAM4 probe card and PCIe 6 test boards, to meet the evolving needs of global chip design clients as the industry approaches the traditional peak season in Q3 [3]