投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 ——尿素周报2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注夏季肥补货及出口兑现情况 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：装置检修变化有限，日产维持高位运行； | | | | | 2. 需求：夏季肥逐步进入收尾阶段； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业延续累库，港口库存变化有限； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比增加； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏弱运行，09基差走强。 | 短期尿素期价延 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | 续偏弱 ...

尿素2025年6月报： 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响，5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡，下旬回归实际供需矛盾，尿素产销转弱，价格高位回落，接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨，较上月底下调84元/吨，尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨，较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格（元/吨） 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差：5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，5月30日9-1价差70元/吨， ...

专题报告 2025-05-14 刘洁文 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 尿素：出口消息落地后价格何去何从？ 报告要点： 4 月 30 日，也就是五一节前最后一个交易日，有两个市场传闻，一个传 5 月 10 日要公布出口 消息，另外一个传 5 月 16 给符合出口的企业划分二铵出口数量，一共 350 万吨出口数量，窗 口期为 6-10 月份。市场受消息影响当日 09 合约大涨超 7%，随后过节期间企业纷纷上调报价， 市场在乐观预期推动下拿货好转，企业收单走高。过节期间关于出口的消息并未被证伪，现货 报价依旧维持偏强走势，以提涨为主，节后关于出口的消息继续发酵，化肥出口座谈会对于化 肥出口做出了安排，提出暂定化肥出口窗口为 5-9 月份，出口总量严格控制在不超过 2023 年 出口规模，明确本年度禁止向印度出口化肥等措施。自此，前期关于放开出口的消息逐步被证 实，市场情绪开始逐步恢复平静，价格波动开始回落。 本周国内生产企业开工回到中高位，日产接近 20 万吨，短期暂未有新增检修计划，预计开工高 位维持。随着新增产能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The continuous rise in the futures market stimulated market demand. The supply side saw a small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cut, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side showed cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation and weak industrial demand. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors, with high expectations but no official confirmation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices rose and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The supply side had small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cuts, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side had cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation, and industrial demand was still for immediate needs. The composite fertilizer factory's terminal sales were poor, and the inventory was high. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1900 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1886 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. The trading volume increased by 24,618 lots to 256,052 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 18,614 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,831 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1820 - 1850 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On May 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,970, the same as the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. The basis of the September contract widened to 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply Data**: On May 7, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,900 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.7% [11]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 126,100 tons from last week, a 10.58% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 5.82 days, a decrease of 1.65 days from the previous period, a 22.09% decrease [12].