Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in express delivery fees in key e-commerce regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang is attributed to a response to "internal competition," leading to higher costs for businesses, particularly those with high shipping volumes [3][5][7]. Group 1: Price Increases and Impact on Businesses - Many express delivery companies have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per package in Guangdong, which is a significant area for e-commerce logistics [3][5]. - For businesses like Mr. Su's, which ships over 100,000 packages monthly, a 0.3 yuan increase translates to an additional cost of 30,000 yuan per month [3][5]. - Smaller businesses may not feel the impact of a few cents per package, but for larger shippers, even a one-cent increase can lead to substantial cost increases [7]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Historical Context - The express delivery industry has been experiencing "internal competition" for years, with major companies like "Three Links and One Reach" (YTO, Shentong, Zhongtong, and Yunda) engaging in price wars to attract customers [7]. - The average price per package in the express delivery industry has decreased from 13.40 yuan in 2015 to 8.02 yuan in 2024, indicating a significant decline in revenue per package [7]. - In July, the average revenue per package for Shentong, YTO, and Yunda was reported at 1.97 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 1.91 yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 1.50%, 7.20%, and 3.54% [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have proposed amendments to the Price Law to address unfair pricing practices and regulate "internal competition" in the market [8]. - A meeting held by the State Post Bureau aimed to discuss the legal governance of "internal competition," which is expected to stabilize the market and protect the rights of delivery personnel, potentially benefiting company profits [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total volume of 16.4 billion parcels in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total parcel volume reached 1,120.5 billion, showing an 18.7% year-on-year growth, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% for the entire year [1] - The growth is driven by trends towards smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return policies [1] Group 2 - In the e-commerce express delivery sector, major players such as YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express reported year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025 [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, their respective growth rates were 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% [1] - SF Express led the industry with a 33.7% year-on-year growth in July 2025, and a 26.9% growth for the first seven months, attributed to its operational strategies and incentives [1] Group 3 - The average revenue per parcel in the industry was reported at 7.36 yuan in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.33% and a month-on-month decline of 1.76% [2] - The decline in revenue per parcel is influenced by the trend towards smaller packages and ongoing price wars, although there are indications of potential recovery in August due to reduced competition [2] - The report suggests that the performance of franchise express companies may improve in the context of reduced competition [2] Group 4 - The express delivery sector includes several Hong Kong-listed companies such as ZTO Express, SF Holding, SF Express City, JD Logistics, and YTO International Express [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent price increases in express delivery services in regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang are primarily targeting e-commerce clients with low shipping costs, with adjustments ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per package, establishing a minimum price of 1.4 yuan per package [3][7]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - Multiple express delivery companies in Guangdong and Zhejiang have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with Guangdong being a key area for these adjustments [7]. - The price increase has been in effect since early August, with different companies implementing varying rates based on their circumstances [7]. - Affected e-commerce merchants typically have low shipping costs, such as those paying around 1 yuan or less per package, particularly in price-sensitive areas like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan [7][8]. Group 2: Impact on Industry and Workers - Theoretically, the rise in express delivery fees should lead to increased revenue for delivery points and higher pay for couriers; however, many industry insiders express skepticism about this outcome [4][12]. - There is a growing call among couriers for establishing a minimum pay rate rather than solely relying on price increases for e-commerce deliveries [4][8]. - The express delivery industry has faced significant pressure due to prolonged price wars, leading to a decline in income for couriers and increased operational challenges for companies [8][11]. Group 3: Future Trends and Expectations - Experts predict that more regions will follow suit in adjusting e-commerce delivery prices, which may lead to improved short-term performance for express delivery companies [12]. - The long-term outlook suggests that direct delivery models will have advantages due to their stable pricing systems and enhanced service capabilities [12][13]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation and restructuring, with a focus on reducing excess capacity and improving profitability for delivery points and franchisees [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports indicate that express delivery companies in Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other regions have raised shipping fees for e-commerce clients, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per order, establishing a minimum price of 1.4 yuan per order [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - The price increase primarily targets e-commerce clients with lower shipping fees, while individual orders are not affected [2][3]. - The price adjustments began in early August, with variations depending on the specific express delivery company [3][4]. - Affected e-commerce merchants typically have shipping costs around 1 yuan or lower, particularly in regions like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and others, which are considered price-sensitive areas [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Implications - Industry experts express skepticism about whether the increase in shipping fees will lead to a corresponding rise in net income and delivery personnel compensation [4][6]. - Many frontline delivery workers emphasize the urgency of establishing a minimum delivery fee rather than relying solely on price increases for e-commerce deliveries [4][6]. - The recent price adjustments are seen as a response to the ongoing "involution" in the industry, where intense price competition has pressured profit margins [4][6]. Group 3: Future Industry Trends - Experts predict that more regions will follow suit in adjusting e-commerce delivery prices, which could lead to improved short-term performance for express delivery companies [6]. - In the long term, a shift towards a direct delivery model is anticipated to provide competitive advantages, as these companies maintain stable pricing structures and enhanced service capabilities [6]. - The express delivery industry may experience mergers and acquisitions, leading to increased market concentration as companies seek to navigate the challenges posed by overcapacity and competitive pressures [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decrease in unit costs and a downward adjustment in volume growth guidance due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 22.723 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 4.312 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Operating Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.850 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.5%, which is the highest in the industry [3] - The average revenue per parcel in Q2 2025 was 1.12 yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, influenced by intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [3] - The unit cost for express delivery in Q2 2025 was approximately 0.58 yuan, a decrease of 11.0% year-on-year, with line haul costs down 15.0% and sorting costs down 5.1% [4] Volume Growth Guidance - The company has adjusted its full-year volume growth target for 2025 to 14%-18%, down from the previous 20%-24% due to the current economic and competitive environment [5] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has growth potential, particularly with the rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales, despite the downward trend in individual parcel values [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policies and changes in the competitive landscape within the express delivery sector [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 9.297 billion yuan, 10.881 billion yuan, and 12.782 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of -7.77%, +17.04%, and +17.48% respectively [7] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's leading unit profitability and cash flow, alongside its scale and management advantages [8]

Industry Overview - In July 2025, the express delivery industry in China reported a business revenue of 120.64 billion yuan and a business volume of 16.40 billion pieces, representing year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative express delivery business revenue reached 839.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, while the cumulative business volume was 112.05 billion pieces, growing by 18.7% year-on-year [1] Company Performance in July 2025 - SF Express led the industry with a business revenue of 18.657 billion yuan and a volume of 1.377 billion pieces, achieving a revenue growth of 15.0% and a volume growth of 33.7% year-on-year [2] - Other companies reported the following revenues and volume: Shentong (4.287 billion yuan, +10.0%, 2.181 billion pieces, +11.9%), Yunda (4.120 billion yuan, +3.8%, 2.162 billion pieces, +7.6%), and YTO (5.371 billion yuan, +12.1%, 2.583 billion pieces, +20.8%) [2] - The market shares for these companies were as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Shentong (13.3%), Yunda (13.2%), and YTO (15.8%) [2] Company Performance from January to July 2025 - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express reported a business revenue of 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%) and a volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [3] - Other companies' revenues and volumes were: Shentong (28.980 billion yuan, +14.8%, 14.528 billion pieces, +19.3%), Yunda (28.851 billion yuan, +7.1%, 14.888 billion pieces, +15.1%), and YTO (37.943 billion yuan, +13.9%, 17.446 billion pieces, +21.6%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express (8.2%), Shentong (13.0%), Yunda (13.3%), and YTO (15.6%) [3] Pricing and Competition Trends - The trend towards lighter and smaller packages, along with intensified price competition, has impacted the industry’s single-ticket revenue [4] - A recent meeting by the postal bureau emphasized the need to combat excessive competition, suggesting a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector [4] - As price increases are gradually implemented, the profitability of express delivery companies is expected to improve, reducing the likelihood of a return to the severe price wars seen in 2020 [4] Investment Outlook - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demand from lower-tier markets and reverse logistics [4] - Companies such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express are recommended for attention due to their potential in the growing market [4] - With improving cyclical expectations, there are opportunities for demand recovery in the mid-to-high-end express market, making SF Express a recommended focus for investment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express and Shentong Express, while other companies like Yunda Express and ZTO Express are also highlighted for their potential [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and business volume at 16.40 billion pieces, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the industry accumulated revenue of 839.42 billion yuan, up 9.9% year-on-year, and a total business volume of 112.05 billion pieces, marking an 18.7% increase [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong resilience in demand, driven by trends such as lightweight and small parcel deliveries, as well as the growth of reverse logistics and opportunities in lower-tier markets [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and ZTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [4]. - The business volume for these companies was: SF Express at 1.377 billion pieces (+33.7%), Shentong at 2.181 billion pieces (+11.9%), Yunda at 2.162 billion pieces (+7.6%), and ZTO at 2.583 billion pieces (+20.8%) [4]. Company Insights - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), with a business volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [5]. - The market share for SF Express increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 8.2% [5]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector, with a focus on reducing price wars and improving profitability for leading companies [6]. - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations for continued growth driven by e-commerce and new market demands [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, with a cumulative completion of 1120.5 billion pieces from January to July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. In July alone, the volume reached 164 billion pieces, up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. - The industry's revenue growth lags behind volume growth, with a cumulative revenue of 8394.2 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The average revenue per piece in July was 7.36 yuan, down 5.33% year-on-year [2]. - Market concentration has slightly decreased, with the CR8 index at 86.9, down 0.1 from June. Major players like SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO have seen varying growth rates in volume and revenue per piece, indicating a temporary easing of competitive pressure [3]. - Regulatory measures against "involution" have led to price increases in key production areas, with minimum prices raised to 1.4 yuan per piece in Guangdong province starting August 4, 2025. This is expected to improve profitability in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The express delivery sector has shown robust growth in volume, but revenue growth remains slower, indicating a reliance on price reductions to drive volume [2]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with major companies experiencing seasonal volume declines and slight decreases in average revenue per piece. The market concentration has decreased slightly, suggesting a reduction in competitive intensity [3]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions have aimed to curb excessive competition, leading to price adjustments that could enhance profitability for express delivery companies [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry under the new regulatory framework, recommending attention to leading companies such as SF Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda [5].

Core Insights - In July, major A-share express delivery companies reported a general year-on-year increase in express business revenue, while the revenue per ticket continued to decline [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.287 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, with a business volume of 2.181 billion tickets, up 11.92%, and a revenue per ticket of 1.97 yuan, down 1.50% [1] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 5.371 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%, with a business volume of 2.583 billion tickets, up 20.79%, and a revenue per ticket of 2.08 yuan, down 7.20% [1] - Yunda Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.120 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 3.75%, with a business volume of 2.162 billion tickets, up 7.56%, and a revenue per ticket of 1.91 yuan, down 3.54% [1] - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business was 24.847 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, with express logistics revenue of 18.657 billion yuan, up 14.97%, and a business volume of 1.377 billion tickets, up 33.69%, with a revenue per ticket of 13.55 yuan, down 14.02% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The State Post Bureau reported that the postal industry revenue reached 144.98 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with express business revenue at 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% [2] - The postal industry has seen growth in revenue and volume from January to July, but the average ticket price has declined [2] - To prevent a "price war," the State Post Bureau has implemented measures to combat "below-cost" competition, prompting express companies to raise ticket prices and focus on technology development, service upgrades, process optimization, and brand building [2] - Various regions, including Beijing and Guangdong, have introduced "anti-involution" policies, with Guangdong raising the base price by 0.4 yuan per ticket, setting a minimum collection price of 1.4 yuan per ticket [3] - Shentong Express has committed to abandoning the "price for volume" model, focusing on quality upgrades and efficiency [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a significant transformation aimed at countering "involution" competition, with companies in regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang announcing price increases to promote rational development [1][3][11]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting from August 5, 2025, express delivery companies in Guangdong will adjust their pricing standards, with a minimum price set at 1.4 yuan per ticket [1][3]. - In July, the Yiwu postal management authority mandated an increase in the minimum price for express delivery to 1.2 yuan, reflecting a broader trend of price hikes in key logistics areas [1][3]. - Reports indicate that the price increase in Guangdong has been confirmed by multiple leading express companies, with adjustments primarily affecting low-weight packages [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector has seen a 20.1% increase in business volume in the first five months of 2025, but the average price per ticket has dropped by 8.2% to 7.5 yuan, indicating a "volume increase, price drop" trend [7][10]. - Major express companies reported a decline in average revenue per ticket in June 2025, with significant drops for companies like SF Express and Yunda [7][10]. - The competitive landscape has led to a challenging environment for franchisees and frontline workers, with profit margins being severely squeezed [8][10]. Group 3: Impact on E-commerce - E-commerce merchants are the first to feel the impact of the price increases, with reported hikes ranging from 0.2 to 1 yuan depending on the weight of the packages [6][13]. - Some e-commerce businesses are relocating their logistics operations to areas with lower express delivery costs to mitigate the impact of rising expenses [13][14]. - Merchants face limited options in response to increased logistics costs, as raising product prices could lead to decreased sales due to price sensitivity [14]. Group 4: Regulatory and Industry Response - The recent price adjustments are supported by regulatory measures aimed at preventing express companies from engaging in predatory pricing practices [4][11]. - Industry experts suggest that this round of price increases could mark a critical turning point for the express delivery sector, moving towards a more rational pricing model [11][14]. - There is a call for collaboration among e-commerce platforms, merchants, and express companies to establish a more sustainable pricing structure [14].