Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again unless there is a significant economic turnaround, as stated by Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's governing council [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates last week as expected, providing a slightly optimistic assessment of the Eurozone economy, which led investors to reduce bets on further easing [1] - Kazimir indicated that he does not foresee any major situations that would compel immediate action in September, unless there are signs of a significant labor market collapse [1] Group 2 - A recent trade agreement between the EU and the US is seen as a positive signal, reducing uncertainty for businesses, but its impact on inflation remains unclear [1] - Kazimir expressed that current inflation rates are unlikely to fall below the ECB's 2% target as they did in the decade before the pandemic [1] - Predictions suggest that inflation will drop below 2% next year and will not recover until 2027, raising concerns among some central bank governors about the potential for persistently weak price growth [2] - Kazimir does not see a lasting threat of inflation remaining below the target, suggesting that any such situation in the coming year should be temporary [2]

金十数据7月28日讯，德意志银行分析师Mark Wall表示，美欧贸易协议降低了欧洲央行进一步降息的必 要性。因为协议达成后，欧元区贸易政策的不确定性下降，欧洲央行进一步降息的压力将会减小。欧元 区货币市场预计欧洲央行今年12月降息的可能性不到60%，欧洲央行9月或10月降息的可能性很小。 德银：美欧贸易协定降低了欧洲央行降息的必要性 ...

智通财经7月28日电，货币市场预计欧洲央行到12月有65%的可能性降息25个基点，到2026年3月降息25 个基点的可能性为84%。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy interest rate at 2%, marking the first pause after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [3] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for further ECB rate cuts, with Goldman no longer expecting a cut this year and JPMorgan delaying its forecast from September to October [2][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the economic outlook is currently in a "good position," suggesting that rates may remain unchanged unless there is a significant deterioration in the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US remains uncertain, but there is speculation about a potential agreement that could impose a 15% tariff on EU goods [3] - Several major banks, including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, reaffirmed their expectations for a rate cut in September, although some analysts warned of increased risks to this prediction [4] - Market sentiment reflects uncertainty regarding the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts this year, with traders pricing in only a 30% chance of a rate reduction before the end of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement its next interest rate cut in October, a shift from the previous prediction of September [1] Group 1 - The change in the expected timing of the ECB's interest rate cut indicates a potential shift in monetary policy strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in September, with the probability now estimated at 25% [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a rate cut by the ECB has decreased significantly among traders [1] - The current probability of a September rate cut stands at 25%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1]

交易员削减了对欧洲央行降息的押注，预计今年还将有20个基点的降息空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its current monetary policy, which aligns with market expectations. However, there are concerns regarding the potential for interest rate cuts if the euro continues to appreciate significantly [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady was anticipated by market participants [1] - The ongoing press conference is addressing the implications of the euro's strength on future monetary policy decisions [1] - There is speculation about whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will consider reinitiating interest rate cuts in response to a stronger euro [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of ING, Carsten Brzeski, maintains the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in September after a pause in today's meeting [1] Group 1 - Core inflation and service sector inflation remain above 2%, providing the ECB with little reason to move away from its current "comfort zone" [1] - If two more weak inflation data points emerge over the summer, along with hard data consistently underperforming soft data, a final rate cut may be seen in the September meeting [1]

金十数据7月24日讯，Mediolanum International Funds固定收益主管Daniel Loughney预计欧洲央行周四将 按兵不动，并预计尽管欧洲央行的宽松周期已接近尾声，但未来六个月内可能还会有一到两次降息。他 指出："持续的关税谈判将损害出口表现，削弱短期增长潜力，并通过增加本地供给对通胀构成下行压 力。"Loughney认为，欧洲财政支出增加将部分抵消这一影响，但由于基建和供给导向的特性，这一过 程更为渐进且可能产生积极供给效应。 机构：欧洲央行今晚料暂停降息 未来半年内或恢复降息 ...