Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy interest rate at 2%, marking the first pause after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [3] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for further ECB rate cuts, with Goldman no longer expecting a cut this year and JPMorgan delaying its forecast from September to October [2][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the economic outlook is currently in a "good position," suggesting that rates may remain unchanged unless there is a significant deterioration in the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US remains uncertain, but there is speculation about a potential agreement that could impose a 15% tariff on EU goods [3] - Several major banks, including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, reaffirmed their expectations for a rate cut in September, although some analysts warned of increased risks to this prediction [4] - Market sentiment reflects uncertainty regarding the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts this year, with traders pricing in only a 30% chance of a rate reduction before the end of the year [4]

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔24日表示，欧委会提出的对美商品反制清单已获成员国压倒性多数投票 通过，将于25日在官方公报上刊登。 吉尔说，欧盟已将原本的两个提案清单合并为一个简明清晰、一致性的清单。如果在8月7日之前欧美贸 易谈判失败，这些反制措施将自动生效。（新华社） ...

金十数据7月16日讯，法国外贸银行表示，如果到8月1日，欧盟和美国仍未达成协议，欧盟将采取第一 轮反制措施进行报复，此外，欧盟委员会也在制定第二套对策。此前，在工作人员对欧元区的最新宏观 经济预测中，"严重情况"的影响预估是，美国对所有商品普遍加征20%关税，并遭到欧盟的对等报复。 这一情景预计将使欧元区GDP年增长率在2025年和2026年分别比基准情景低0.4个百分点。如果是美国 对欧盟商品的关税提高至30%，欧盟进行对等报复的情景，则欧元区GDP的损失将更为显著，预计2025 年较基准情景低约0.5个百分点，2026年低约0.6个百分点。不过，法国外贸银行仍然认为，尽管可能性 不大，谈判在8月1日前成功达成的机会仍然存在。否则，在欧洲方面的压力下，尤其是在市场和美国企 业的压力下，"最后期限"可能会再次被推迟。 机构：欧美贸易谈判临近关键期，若谈不成或再度延期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the European Union must demonstrate strength in trade negotiations with the United States [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the EU's strategic approach to enhance its bargaining power in international trade discussions [1] - The need for a unified stance among EU member states is highlighted to effectively negotiate with the US [1] - The comments suggest a proactive strategy to address trade imbalances and protect European interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EU has not achieved a breakthrough in trade talks with the US, and negotiations will continue into the weekend [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - EU negotiators have indicated that the second round of countermeasures has been reduced from an initial €95 billion to €72 billion [1] - If a more comprehensive trade agreement is not reached, the EU will seek to extend the tariff suspension period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has slightly appreciated against the US Dollar, currently trading at 1.1417, amid reports that the EU aims to extend trade negotiations with the US beyond the July deadline set by Trump [1] Group 1 - The Euro's current exchange rate against the US Dollar is 1.1417, indicating a short-term increase [1] - The EU's intention to extend trade negotiations suggests a proactive approach to maintaining trade relations with the US [1]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) officials have requested major EU companies and their CEOs to report detailed plans for investments in the United States to prepare for trade negotiations with the US [1][3] - The European Business Association members received a questionnaire from the European Commission, asking for their future investment intentions in the US [3] - The European Industrial Roundtable, which includes major companies like ASML, BASF, SAP, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, has also been contacted to provide their investment plans for the next five years [3] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations between the EU and the US show signs of progress, with President Trump delaying the imposition of a 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1 to July 9 [3][7] - The EU aims to negotiate the cancellation of any tariffs on EU products or at least prevent new tariffs, exploring conditions that could satisfy the US [7] - European companies are currently focusing significant investments in the pharmaceutical sector, with Roche and Novartis committing to invest $50 billion and $23 billion respectively in the US [7] Group 3 - A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce revealed that 24% of surveyed companies intend to increase investments in the US, while 29% plan to reduce their investments [7] - The uncertainty caused by the fluctuating policies of the Trump administration is a primary reason for companies considering reducing their investments in the US [7] - Trump's recent executive order requiring pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices in the US has led Roche to reconsider further investments in the US [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rebound despite recent fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade negotiations between the US and EU [1][10][11]. Market Performance - On May 26, gold opened at $3354.98 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3323.64, and closed at $3341.30, marking a decrease of $16.4 or 0.49% from the previous close of $3357.70 [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $34.06, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - The US dollar index showed weakness, which limited bullish momentum for gold [3][6]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions involving Iran and Israel, have led to a resurgence in safe-haven demand for gold [5][11]. - The recent shift in President Trump's stance on EU tariffs has created uncertainty in trade negotiations, potentially impacting gold prices [10]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [13]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has regained strength, moving above the 5-week moving average, with potential targets of $3400 and $3500 [14]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is near resistance levels around $3500, with short-term bullish signals still present [16]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [8][10]. - The potential for a US debt crisis and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further support gold prices as a hedge against inflation [11].

特朗普最终还是在欧洲这边，"赢了一局"。 果不其然，就在今天凌晨，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟方面提出延长贸易窗口的谈判期，所以他宣布同 意延期到7月9日再对欧盟加征50%的关税。 在对欧盟的谈判中，特朗普开始占据主动 两天前，特朗普曾威胁对欧洲加征50%的关税，并在即将到来的6月1日就开始实行。整个欧盟很快乱成 一锅粥。 当时我预言，欧盟毕竟不是一个单一国家组成的经济体，27个欧盟成员国在特朗普的极限施压之下很难 齐心协力。甚至会产生内讧，从而在特朗普极限施压下选择妥协。 特朗普：冯德莱恩给我打电话。 而特朗普还表示，这一做法是因为欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩"主动通话"，请求特朗普推迟谈判的最后期 限。不仅如此，冯德莱恩通过一份声明表示，欧盟准备"迅速而果断地"推进与美国的贸易谈判。 很显然，特朗普通过极限施压，确实拿到了主动权，但欧盟真的就"败了么"？今天我们就来深度解读这 件事儿，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 两天之后变脸，特朗普拿到了想要的结果？ 为什么特朗普要对欧盟极限施压？简单来说就是美国和欧盟的谈判速度太慢了。 距离4月3日的对等关税暂缓已经过去了快两个月时间，但是迄今为止h只有中国和英国与美国签订 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that she will not meet with U.S. President Trump in Washington until concrete trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. can take place [1] Group 1 - Von der Leyen emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement that is specific and acceptable to both the EU and the U.S. before her visit to the White House [1]