Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy interest rate at 2%, marking the first pause after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [3] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for further ECB rate cuts, with Goldman no longer expecting a cut this year and JPMorgan delaying its forecast from September to October [2][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the economic outlook is currently in a "good position," suggesting that rates may remain unchanged unless there is a significant deterioration in the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US remains uncertain, but there is speculation about a potential agreement that could impose a 15% tariff on EU goods [3] - Several major banks, including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, reaffirmed their expectations for a rate cut in September, although some analysts warned of increased risks to this prediction [4] - Market sentiment reflects uncertainty regarding the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts this year, with traders pricing in only a 30% chance of a rate reduction before the end of the year [4]

Group 1 - The European Commission's proposed countermeasure list against U.S. goods has been overwhelmingly approved by member states and will be published in the official gazette on the 25th [1] - The European Union has merged two original proposals into a single, clear, and consistent list [1] - If the U.S.-EU trade negotiations fail by August 7, these countermeasures will automatically take effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming trade negotiations between the EU and the US are at a critical juncture, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU if no agreement is reached by August 1 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Negotiations - If the EU and the US fail to reach an agreement by August 1, the EU will implement the first round of countermeasures [1] - The European Commission is also preparing a second set of countermeasures in response to the trade talks [1] Economic Impact - A "severe scenario" predicts that a 20% tariff imposed by the US on all goods would lead to a reduction in the Eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026 compared to the baseline scenario [1] - If the US raises tariffs on EU goods to 30%, with corresponding EU retaliation, the Eurozone's GDP loss would be more pronounced, with a projected decrease of approximately 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 percentage points in 2026 compared to the baseline scenario [1] Outlook - Despite the challenges, there remains a possibility, albeit low, that negotiations could successfully conclude before the August 1 deadline [1] - The pressure from Europe, particularly from the market and US businesses, may lead to a further postponement of the "deadline" if no agreement is reached [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the European Union must demonstrate strength in trade negotiations with the United States [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the EU's strategic approach to enhance its bargaining power in international trade discussions [1] - The need for a unified stance among EU member states is highlighted to effectively negotiate with the US [1] - The comments suggest a proactive strategy to address trade imbalances and protect European interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EU has not achieved a breakthrough in trade talks with the US, and negotiations will continue into the weekend [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - EU negotiators have indicated that the second round of countermeasures has been reduced from an initial €95 billion to €72 billion [1] - If a more comprehensive trade agreement is not reached, the EU will seek to extend the tariff suspension period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has slightly appreciated against the US Dollar, currently trading at 1.1417, amid reports that the EU aims to extend trade negotiations with the US beyond the July deadline set by Trump [1] Group 1 - The Euro's current exchange rate against the US Dollar is 1.1417, indicating a short-term increase [1] - The EU's intention to extend trade negotiations suggests a proactive approach to maintaining trade relations with the US [1]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) officials have requested major EU companies and their CEOs to report detailed plans for investments in the United States to prepare for trade negotiations with the US [1][3] - The European Business Association members received a questionnaire from the European Commission, asking for their future investment intentions in the US [3] - The European Industrial Roundtable, which includes major companies like ASML, BASF, SAP, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, has also been contacted to provide their investment plans for the next five years [3] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations between the EU and the US show signs of progress, with President Trump delaying the imposition of a 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1 to July 9 [3][7] - The EU aims to negotiate the cancellation of any tariffs on EU products or at least prevent new tariffs, exploring conditions that could satisfy the US [7] - European companies are currently focusing significant investments in the pharmaceutical sector, with Roche and Novartis committing to invest $50 billion and $23 billion respectively in the US [7] Group 3 - A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce revealed that 24% of surveyed companies intend to increase investments in the US, while 29% plan to reduce their investments [7] - The uncertainty caused by the fluctuating policies of the Trump administration is a primary reason for companies considering reducing their investments in the US [7] - Trump's recent executive order requiring pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices in the US has led Roche to reconsider further investments in the US [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rebound despite recent fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade negotiations between the US and EU [1][10][11]. Market Performance - On May 26, gold opened at $3354.98 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3323.64, and closed at $3341.30, marking a decrease of $16.4 or 0.49% from the previous close of $3357.70 [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $34.06, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - The US dollar index showed weakness, which limited bullish momentum for gold [3][6]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions involving Iran and Israel, have led to a resurgence in safe-haven demand for gold [5][11]. - The recent shift in President Trump's stance on EU tariffs has created uncertainty in trade negotiations, potentially impacting gold prices [10]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [13]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has regained strength, moving above the 5-week moving average, with potential targets of $3400 and $3500 [14]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is near resistance levels around $3500, with short-term bullish signals still present [16]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [8][10]. - The potential for a US debt crisis and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further support gold prices as a hedge against inflation [11].

Group 1 - Trump has taken the initiative in negotiations with the EU by threatening a 50% tariff increase, which has caused significant turmoil within the EU [2][3] - The EU's response includes a request from Ursula von der Leyen to extend the negotiation deadline to July 9, indicating a willingness to accelerate trade talks [3][5] - The EU's internal divisions and lack of a unified response to Trump's pressure suggest that they may be leaning towards compromise rather than confrontation [5][8] Group 2 - The EU's reliance on exports to the US in sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals complicates their ability to adopt a hardline stance similar to China [8][12] - Trump's demands include the cancellation of digital taxes and a reduction in industrial tariffs, while maintaining a 25% tariff on automobiles to protect US car manufacturers [10][12] - The EU insists on a "reciprocal" approach and has previously rejected a model similar to the UK's 10% tariff, indicating a desire for more favorable terms [9][12] Group 3 - The lack of trust between the US and EU, exacerbated by Trump's history of withdrawing from trade agreements, poses challenges for negotiations [12][14] - The EU's need to coordinate among its 27 member states adds complexity to the negotiation process, as differing national interests may hinder a cohesive strategy [12][14] - Other countries, such as Japan, are also resistant to US tariff demands, highlighting a broader international reluctance to accept Trump's trade policies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that she will not meet with U.S. President Trump in Washington until concrete trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. can take place [1] Group 1 - Von der Leyen emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement that is specific and acceptable to both the EU and the U.S. before her visit to the White House [1]