Core Insights - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a recovery despite the rising prominence of the electric vehicle market [2][4] - In September, domestic sales of passenger cars reached 2.299 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles accounting for 1 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [2] - The sales growth of traditional fuel vehicles has turned positive for the year, with a total of 8.141 million units sold from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [2] Group 1: Sales Data - In September, traditional fuel vehicle sales increased by 10.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of year-on-year growth [2] - For the first nine months of the year, the total domestic sales of passenger cars reached 17.044 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6 thousand units [2] - Retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 4% in September, but a month-on-month increase of 5%, indicating a notable recovery compared to a 14% decline in 2024 [4] Group 2: Policy and Promotions - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, including expanded support for scrapping older vehicles [5] - The promotion intensity for traditional fuel vehicles is significantly higher than that for electric vehicles, with promotional efforts for fuel vehicles remaining stable at around 23.9% [5] - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles are seeing particularly high promotional efforts, with luxury vehicle promotions reaching 27.7% in September [5] Group 3: Market Trends - Many automakers are maintaining a dual strategy of promoting both electric and fuel vehicles, with a significant number of new models being fuel vehicles [6] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles reached a historical high of 53.5% in wholesale and 57.8% in retail in September [7] - Despite the growth of electric vehicles, there remains a persistent consumer demand for fuel vehicles, and the notion of a complete phase-out of fuel vehicles is premature [7]

Core Viewpoint - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a recovery despite the rising prominence of the electric vehicle market, with significant growth in sales figures reported for September 2025 [3][6]. Group 1: Sales Data - In September 2025, domestic sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.299 million units, marking a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [3]. - Traditional fuel vehicle sales in September 2025 amounted to 1 million units, an increase of 60,000 units year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10.9% and a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales totaled 17.044 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, while traditional fuel vehicle sales reached 8.141 million units, up 136,000 units year-on-year, representing a growth of 1.7% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, with the 2025 vehicle replacement policy expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrappage subsidies [7]. - Promotional efforts for fuel vehicles have been more aggressive than for electric vehicles, with promotional intensity for fuel vehicles at 23.9% in September 2025, compared to 10.2% for electric vehicles [7]. - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles are seeing particularly high promotional efforts, with luxury vehicle promotions reaching 27.7% and joint venture fuel vehicles at 23.3% in September 2025 [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Fuel vehicles are increasingly adopting smart technologies to counter the perception of being less intelligent compared to electric vehicles, with significant improvements in features such as intelligent driving and connectivity [7]. - Many automakers are continuing to develop both electric and fuel vehicles, with a notable proportion of new models being fuel vehicles, indicating a balanced approach in product offerings [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the growth in electric vehicle sales, which reached a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5% and a retail penetration rate of 57.8% in September 2025, the demand for fuel vehicles remains strong due to concerns over electric vehicle safety and the gradual reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles starting next year [9].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce announced that the automobile replacement subsidy policy will cease after the qualification issuance is completed on October 28, 2025 [1][5] - The total subsidy fund is capped, and the policy operates on a first-come, first-served basis until the budget is exhausted [5] - As of October 22, 2025, over 10 million applications for the automobile replacement subsidy have been submitted, with more than 3.4 million for scrapping and over 6.6 million for replacements [5] Group 2 - The proportion of new energy vehicles in the automobile replacement policy reached 57.2%, contributing to a 24.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to September 2025, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% [5] - A new policy regarding the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be implemented starting January 2026, changing from full exemption to a 5% tax rate, with a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [6] - Only new energy vehicle models listed in the tax exemption directory and meeting new technical requirements will qualify for the tax benefits starting in 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in September showed strong performance driven by the traditional sales peak and the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in both overall and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2][4]. Group 1: September Market Review - In September, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.244 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles totaled 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7% and a month-on-month growth of 16.5%, achieving a penetration rate of 57.8% [2]. Group 2: October Market Outlook - October is expected to enter the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, with the National Day holiday's customer gathering effect and year-end policy adjustment expectations driving initial consumer demand [3]. - However, the impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to weaken, leading to potential pressure on market growth in the latter half of the month [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers are optimistic about October sales, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are stable month-on-month. The narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail market is expected to reach around 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [4]. - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate potentially reaching 60%, which would be a historical high [4][8]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail sales of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [5]. - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail sales to 87,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [5]. - The third week saw a decline in daily retail sales to 61,300 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.5% [5]. - The fourth week is expected to stabilize with daily retail sales of 68,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.4% [5]. - The fifth week is projected to see an increase in daily retail sales to 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5]. Group 5: Market Structure Differentiation - After the National Day holiday, terminal discounts have shown a seasonal slight recovery, with the overall automotive market operating smoothly [7]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly impacted the market, with over 10 million applications for subsidies by October 22, 2025 [7]. - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming end-of-year tax subsidy adjustments for new energy vehicles, which may drive pre-purchase demand [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan - Author Affiliation: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and tend to rise in the long - term. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities at low prices. The cost side provides strong support due to the cancellation of tax - refund policies and tight scrap aluminum supply. With the end - of - year car sales push, the fourth - quarter seasonal performance may be stronger [6]. - As of October 17, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.31 million tons to 13.41 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory pressure remains. In the second week of October, domestic car sales reached 686,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to boosting car consumption [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The current trading volume, position, and capital precipitation data are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2511 - AD2512 contract pair on October 17, 2025, the fixed cost is 11.54 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 66.17 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 78 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton. Considering storage fees, capital costs, and other factors, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.35% [16][19]. - The short - term refined - scrap price difference is rising [24]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The Baotai ADC12 price remains flat, and the recycled - primary price difference fluctuates. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [31][36]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output share are also presented. For example, Guangdong accounts for 19.65% of the output [41][46]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost is estimated to be above the break - even line [47]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [52][56]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production volume, regional production share, factory inventory, and regional inventory share are provided [59][60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the end - of - year sales push stage, which will drive die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the car inventory warning index and the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts manufacturing [65][66].

Core Insights - China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales both exceeded 10 million units in the first nine months of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates surpassing 30% [1] Group 1: NEV Performance - In the first nine months, NEV production reached 11.243 million units, while sales totaled 11.228 million units, reflecting year-on-year increases of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively [1] - NEV new car sales accounted for 46.1% of total new car sales in the automotive market [1] Group 2: Overall Automotive Market - Total automotive production and sales in the same period were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units, showing year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively [1] - In September alone, automotive production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, with month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year-on-year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The monthly year-on-year growth rate for production and sales has remained above 10% for five consecutive months, indicating a robust release of new momentum and resilience in foreign trade [1] - Recent policies such as the vehicle trade-in program have shown effectiveness, alongside vibrant local auto exhibitions and a surge in new product launches by companies, contributing to a positive overall market trend [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market has shown robust growth in the first three quarters of the year, with total production and sales exceeding 24 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 12% [1][3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have reached significant milestones, with sales surpassing 11 million units and a market penetration rate approaching 50% [1][4] - The market dynamics are supported by government policies and strong consumer demand, indicating a positive outlook for the fourth quarter [1][5] Automotive Production and Sales - In September, automotive production reached 3.276 million units, while sales were 3.226 million units, marking a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year-on-year growth exceeding 14% [1] - Cumulatively, automotive production and sales for the first three quarters were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 12.9% [3] Passenger Vehicle Segment - The passenger vehicle sector demonstrated stability in September, with production and sales of 2.9 million and 2.859 million units, reflecting month-on-month growth of 16% and 12.5% [2] - Chinese brands performed exceptionally well, with sales of 2.007 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, capturing 70.2% of the total passenger vehicle sales [2][3] Commercial Vehicle Performance - The commercial vehicle market also rebounded strongly in September, with production and sales reaching 376,000 and 368,000 units, showing month-on-month increases exceeding 16% and year-on-year increases of 27.7% and 29.6% [4] - Cumulatively, commercial vehicle production and sales for the first three quarters were 3.091 million and 3.117 million units, with year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 7.8% [4] New Energy Vehicles - NEVs achieved remarkable sales figures in September, with production and sales of 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, both showing month-on-month growth exceeding 15% and year-on-year growth exceeding 23% [4] - For the first three quarters, NEV production and sales surpassed 11.2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 35% and a market share of 46.1% [4] Market Outlook - The "old-for-new" vehicle policy is expected to have a moderating effect on growth in October, but the introduction of new models is anticipated to stimulate short-term sales [5]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The automotive market in China continues to show a positive trend, with production and sales growth rates exceeding 10% for five consecutive months [1] - In September, automotive production reached 3.276 million units and sales reached 3.226 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively [1] - For the first nine months of the year, total automotive production was 24.433 million units, a 13.3% increase year-on-year, while sales were 24.436 million units, up 12.9% [1] Group 2: Passenger Vehicle Market - In the first nine months, passenger vehicle production and sales were 21.241 million and 21.246 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.9% and 13.7% [2] - In September, passenger vehicle sales reached 2.859 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - Domestic sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles have shown a positive trend, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in the first nine months [2] - The market share of domestic brands in passenger vehicles was approximately 70.2% in September, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Commercial Vehicle Market - The commercial vehicle market also experienced growth, with production and sales in September increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year [3] - For the first nine months, commercial vehicle sales totaled 3.117 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [3] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles surged by 71.9% in September, accounting for 30% of total commercial vehicle sales [3] Group 4: New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively in the first nine months, with year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9% [4] - In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [4] - The market share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle sales is expected to reach 50% by the end of the year [4] Group 5: Export Performance - In the first nine months, automotive exports totaled 4.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [5] - Exports of new energy vehicles reached 1.758 million units, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 89.4% [5] Group 6: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to exceed 6.5 million exports by 2025, with total new energy vehicle sales expected to surpass 16 million units this year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is experiencing steady growth, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and a focus on domestic circulation, with significant increases in production and sales across various vehicle categories [1][31]. Production and Sales Data - In September 2025, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% [2]. - From January to September 2025, cumulative production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 12.9% [2]. Commercial Vehicle Performance - In September, commercial vehicle sales approached 370,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 30% [3]. - Commercial vehicle production and sales in September were 376,000 and 368,000 units, with month-on-month increases of 19.3% and 16.3%, and year-on-year increases of 27.7% and 29.6% [4]. - For the first nine months of 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales reached 3.091 million and 3.117 million units, with year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 7.8% [6]. Truck Sales Insights - In September, truck production and sales were 322,000 and 312,000 units, with month-on-month increases of 19.1% and 14.9%, and year-on-year increases of 28.9% [8]. - Heavy-duty truck sales reached 106,000 units in September, with a month-on-month increase of 15.2% and a year-on-year increase of 82.9% [8]. Passenger Vehicle Trends - In September, passenger vehicle production and sales were 54,000 and 56,000 units, with month-on-month increases of 20.5% and 25%, and year-on-year increases of 21.2% and 33.7% [13]. - For the first nine months of 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales totaled 405,000 and 407,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 12.6% and 12.7% [18]. Export Performance - In September, commercial vehicle exports reached 93,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 18% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [24]. - For the first nine months of 2025, commercial vehicle exports totaled 748,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [26]. New Energy Vehicle Developments - In September, new energy commercial vehicle domestic sales were 83,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 26.2% and a year-on-year increase of 71.9% [27]. - For the first nine months of 2025, new energy commercial vehicle domestic sales reached 566,000 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 61.4% [27]. Industry Outlook - The China Automotive Industry Association indicates that policies such as vehicle trade-in programs are positively impacting the market, with sustained monthly year-on-year growth rates exceeding 10% for five consecutive months [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a plan to stabilize growth in the automotive industry, outlining 15 measures to enhance domestic consumption and improve supply quality [31].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a positive trend with significant growth in production and sales, driven by policies such as the vehicle trade-in program and the introduction of new models by companies [1][12][62]. Group 1: Overall Automotive Production and Sales - In September, automotive production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% [12]. - From January to September, total automotive production and sales were 24.433 million and 24.436 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 12.9% [12][13]. Group 2: Domestic Sales Performance - In September, domestic automotive sales were 2.574 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 14.6% and a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [13]. - For the first nine months, domestic sales totaled 19.414 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [13][38]. Group 3: Export Performance - In September, automotive exports reached 652,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21% [18]. - From January to September, total automotive exports were 4.95 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [18][19]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - In September, NEV production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 23.7% and 24.6% [62]. - For the first nine months, NEV production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, showing year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9% [62][69]. Group 5: Key Enterprises and Market Concentration - The top fifteen automotive groups sold a total of 22.476 million units from January to September, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, accounting for 92.3% of total automotive sales [78]. - The top fifteen NEV groups sold a total of 10.666 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.8%, representing 95% of total NEV sales [80].