Group 1 - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced an adjustment to the related transaction price of rare earth concentrate for Q3 2025 to 19,109 yuan/ton (excluding tax), with a price adjustment of 382.18 yuan/ton for every 1% change in REO [1] - Over the past year, both companies have repeatedly increased the transaction prices of rare earth concentrates [1] - As of July 10, Northern Rare Earth's stock price was 27.01 yuan/share, up 10.02%, with a total market value of 97.64 billion yuan; Baotou Steel's stock price was 1.90 yuan/share, up 4.40%, with a total market value of 86.05 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a range of 900 million to 960 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% [3] - The company also anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 880 million to 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5,538.33% to 5,922.76% [3] - The increase in rare earth prices has positively impacted the company's performance [4] Group 3 - Northern Rare Earth has been actively involved in the construction of "two rare earth bases" and has reported a robust order backlog from its subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Northern Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd [6] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook on future rare earth price trends, supported by improved supply and demand dynamics [6] - The overall activity in the rare earth market has been better than the same period last year due to tightened upstream raw material supply and stimulated downstream consumption [6] Group 4 - Rare earths, classified into light and heavy rare earths, are strategic resources with limited availability, primarily concentrated in China [7] - Recent export controls on heavy rare earths have led to a surge in overseas prices, with price differences exceeding three times between domestic and international markets [7] - The demand for heavy rare earths is expected to grow due to the development of industries such as electric vehicles, wind power, and home appliances, with humanoid robots emerging as a significant application area for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent price increases of rare earth products by Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, indicating a bullish outlook for the rare earth market driven by supply constraints and rising demand [2][4]. Price Adjustments - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced plans to adjust the price of rare earth concentrate to 19,109 RMB/ton (excluding tax) for Q3 2025, with a price change of 382.18 RMB/ton for every 1% change in REO content [2]. - Over the past year, both companies have repeatedly raised the prices of rare earth concentrates [4]. Performance Forecast - Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 900 million to 960 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% [7]. - The company also anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 880 million to 940 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 5,538.33% to 5,922.76% [7]. Market Dynamics - The rare earth market has shown improved activity since Q1 2025 due to tighter upstream raw material supply and stimulated downstream consumption, positively impacting Northern Rare Earth's performance [8]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on future rare earth price trends, supported by a full order book at its subsidiary [8]. Industry Context - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy rare earths, with heavy rare earths being rarer and more unevenly distributed, primarily concentrated in China [9]. - Recent export controls on heavy rare earths have led to significant price increases in Europe, with price differentials exceeding three times between domestic and international markets [9]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to grow due to industries such as electric vehicles, wind power, and home appliances, with humanoid robots anticipated to become a significant application area for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel indicate a significant increase in the price of rare earth concentrate, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices in the rare earth market driven by supply constraints and increased demand [1][2][3]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of 0.9 billion to 0.96 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 855 million to 915 million yuan, equating to a growth rate of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [3]. - The company also anticipates a non-net profit of 0.88 billion to 0.94 billion yuan, with an increase of 865 million to 925 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5538.33% to 5922.76% [3]. - The performance surge is attributed to rising rare earth prices and improved operational efficiency, with the company achieving record production and sales [3]. Market Trends - The price of rare earth concentrate has been on an upward trajectory, with the proposed price for Q3 2025 set at 19,109 yuan per ton, up from 18,825 yuan in Q2 and 18,618 yuan in Q1 of 2025 [2]. - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow due to advancements in industries such as robotics and electric vehicles, leading to increased global demand for medium and heavy rare earths [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce has indicated a commitment to maintaining the stability of the global supply chain for rare earths, with ongoing approvals for export licenses contributing to market activity [4]. Industry Outlook - Analysts from Guotou Securities predict that the price of rare earths will continue to rise, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, due to supply chain concerns following export controls [5]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to remain strong, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, with a potential supply-demand imbalance for praseodymium and neodymium [5]. - The overall market for rare earths is anticipated to experience a tightening supply situation, which could lead to further price increases [5]. Resource Distribution - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy categories, with heavy rare earths being rarer and more unevenly distributed, primarily concentrated in China [6]. - China holds over 80% of the global heavy rare earth reserves, with significant deposits located in provinces such as Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Yunnan [6].

稀土又要涨价了。 7月10日晚间，北方稀土、包钢股份双双公告，拟将2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税19109元/吨（干量， REO=50%，下同），REO每增减1%、不含税价格增减382.18元/吨。 记者梳理北方稀土、包钢股份此前公告发现，近一年以来，稀土精矿交易价格持续上调。 | 时间 | 拟调整价格(元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度 | 19109 | | 2025年第二季度 | 18825 | | 2025年第一季度 | 18618 | | 2024年第四季度 | 17782 | | 2024年第三季度 | 16741 | | 2024年第二季度 | 16792 | | 2024年第一季度 | 20737 | 稀土精矿交易价格（不含税） （数据来源：公告） 值得一提的是，就在昨日（7月9日），北方稀土发布业绩预增公告称，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归母净利 润9亿元到9.6亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加8.55亿元到9.15亿元，同比增长1882.54%至2014.71%。预计2025年半年度实现归母 扣非净利润8.8亿元到9.4亿元 ...

Group 1 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.9 billion to 0.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.855 billion to 0.915 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Following the China-US trade negotiations, China has partially relaxed rare earth export controls, expediting the approval process for foreign companies' export licenses, which has alleviated the high demand for rare earths from Western companies [1] - As of June, there has been a certain recovery in rare earth product export orders, although the export process has been slightly prolonged due to the time taken for license processing and customs inspections [1] Group 2 - With the upcoming peak season for domestic new energy vehicles and the subsequent overseas restocking demand, rare earth prices are expected to continue rising, benefiting the sector and leading to a dual boost in performance and valuation for domestic rare earth magnetic material companies [2] - Major domestic companies in the rare earth sector include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Jinli Permanent Magnet [3]

Summary of Rare Earth Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The rare earth sector is experiencing a bullish trend, with a focus on companies such as China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [1][2] - The price gap between domestic and international rare earths has widened, with overseas heavy rare earth prices exceeding a 200% premium [1][2] - Domestic procurement intentions remain unclear due to policy uncertainties, leading to a lack of significant price increases in the domestic market [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The expectation is that if the domestic rare earth index growth rate is below 15% in 2025, supply-demand improvements are highly certain [1][6] - Demand for rare earths is projected to grow over 20% due to high-frequency needs from sectors like new energy vehicles [1][6] - Global effective supply of rare earths may decline by approximately 5% in 2025, primarily due to reduced imports [1][7] - Export controls have resulted in overseas rare earth prices being twice as high as domestic prices, which is expected to drive domestic price increases [1][8] Company-Specific Insights - China Rare Earth is positioned to benefit from price increases and asset injection expectations, with a conservative target market value of over 60 billion, compared to its current market value of 40 billion [2][9][12] - Guangsheng Nonferrous, as a leading player in South China, is undervalued with high growth potential, expecting profits of around 1 billion once its mining operations commence [2][10][12] - The supply-side structural reforms in the rare earth industry will favor leading companies like China Rare Earth Group and Northern Rare Earth, as these reforms will reduce non-compliant supply [1][11] Potential Investment Opportunities - The rare earth sector is viewed positively, with China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous as primary investment targets [2][9][14] - Companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Zhongke Sanhuan, which are involved in emerging demand areas such as new energy and robotics, are also recommended for investment [2][13] Additional Considerations - The current policy environment has not fully materialized, but the synchronization of domestic and international market prices is expected to benefit leading companies [1][14] - The overall sentiment towards the rare earth sector remains bullish, with a focus on the potential for significant price increases and market recovery [1][2][14]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% to close at 3402.32 points, with a daily high of 3413.51 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.83% to close at 10246.02 points, reaching a high of 10295.4 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.21%, closing at 2061.87 points, with a peak of 2076.91 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 0.58%, with the highest return from the China Asset Management ChiNext 50 ETF at 1.56% [2] - The highest performing industry ETF was the Penghua National Standard Nonferrous Metals Industry ETF, yielding 2.29% [2] - The top strategy ETF was the China Asset Management ChiNext Low Volatility Value ETF, returning 1.1% [2] - The best performing thematic ETF was the Jiashi CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF, with a return of 3.41% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - China Asset Management ChiNext 500 Growth Innovation Strategy ETF (3.49%) - Jiashi CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (3.41%) - ICBC Credit Suisse CSI Rare Metal Thematic ETF (3.36%) [4] - The worst performing ETFs included: - Penghua SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (-1.15%) - ICBC Credit Suisse CSI Innovative Drug Industry ETF (-1.06%) - Fortune CSI Big Data Industry ETF (-1.05%) [4] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (inflow of 1.042 billion) - China Asset Management SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (inflow of 656 million) - China Asset Management SSE 50 ETF (inflow of 216 million) [6] - The largest outflows were from: - Jiashi CSI 300 ETF (outflow of 360 million) - Fortune National Standard Information Technology Innovation Thematic ETF (outflow of 335 million) - China Asset Management CSI Information Technology Application Innovation Industry ETF (outflow of 297 million) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The highest margin buy amounts were for: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (618 million) - China Asset Management SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (543 million) - Guotai Junan CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (213 million) [8] - The highest margin sell amounts were for: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (31.34 million) - China Asset Management CSI 1000 ETF (17.43 million) - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (15.22 million) [8] Institutional Insights - Huayuan Securities anticipates that rare earth prices may break through as domestic prices have slightly increased, awaiting export permits [9] - Dongfang Securities suggests that the controlled supply of rare earths in China is aimed at maintaining national security and promoting industrial upgrades, indicating a moderate price increase in the long term [10]

2025.06.09 精选行业研报，助您捕捉行业风口 【精选快读】 1、创新药产业迎来密集催化，医药行情或将持续性修复 2、稀土价格有望温和上涨，板块或迎来估值提升、利润增厚双击 1、创新药产业迎来密集催化，医药行情或将持续性修复 导读 ： 创新药迎来密集催化；稀土价格有望温和上涨 ； 解锁【第一财经智享会员】实时解读市场 动态，把握投资先机。 近期，创新药产业迎来密集催化。5月2 9日，中国创新药领域迎来历史性时刻。当日，国家药品监 督管理局集中批准11款创新药上市，其中7款为1类创新药。 【第一财经智享会员专属】 【 今 日 速 读 】 中信建投指出，中国药企持续发力，创新度持续提升，持续看好创新药产业技术驱动周期，建议持 续关注双抗及多抗、ADC及小分子疗法等领域相关企业。 中 国 银 河 证 券 表 示 ， 医 药 板 块 经 历 较 长 时 间 调 整 ， 整 体 估 值 处 于 较 低 水 平 ， 且 公 募 持 仓 低 配 ， 2 0 2 5 年 在 支 持 引 导 商 保 发 展 的 政 策 背 景 下 ， 支 付 端 有 望 边 际 改 善 ， 创 新 药 械 有 望 获 益 。 医 药 行 ...

Core Insights - The rare metals theme index has shown a positive trend, with a 0.58% increase as of June 9, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Zhongke Magnetic Materials (up 11.96%) and Beikong Technology (10% limit up) [1] - The rare metals ETF has experienced significant trading activity, with a turnover of 2.79% and a transaction volume of 25.27 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past year [4] - The valuation of the index tracked by the rare metals ETF is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.18, indicating strong value for investors [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for medium and heavy rare earths in civilian applications is increasing globally, driven by industries such as robotics and electric vehicles, as stated by the Ministry of Commerce [4] - Since the implementation of partial rare earth export controls in April, the export volume of rare earth permanent magnets has decreased by over 50% month-on-month, reaching a historical low in the past five years [4][5] - Analysts suggest monitoring the issuance of rare earth quotas in China and the demand situation overseas as export controls may ease, with expectations of moderate price increases for rare earths benefiting the equity sector [5] Investment Opportunities - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metals theme index account for 54.9% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [5] - Investors can also participate in the rare metals sector through the rare metals ETF linked fund (014111) [5]

Group 1 - The rare earth sector experienced significant gains on September 9, with companies like Jiuling Technology rising over 16% and Zhongke Magnetic Industry increasing nearly 14% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China indicated a growing demand for medium and heavy rare earths in civilian applications due to the development of industries such as robotics and new energy vehicles [1] - China has approved a certain number of compliant export license applications for rare earths and aims to strengthen communication regarding export controls to facilitate compliant trade [1] Group 2 - According to Founder Securities, the rare earth industry is showing signs of supply-demand improvement due to factors such as tightening supply, reform of indicator systems, and stable overall demand from downstream sectors [1] - The introduction of export control policies for medium and heavy rare earths in April led to a supply-demand imbalance in overseas markets, causing a surge in rare earth prices [1] - With the gradual easing of these control policies since mid-May, there is potential for aggressive restocking in overseas markets, which may lead to a convergence of price differences between domestic and international markets for medium and heavy rare earths [1] Group 3 - Future attention should be paid to the issuance of rare earth quotas in China this year and the demand situation overseas as export controls on medium and heavy rare earths ease [2] - It is expected that rare earth prices may continue to rise moderately, benefiting the profitability recovery of related equity sectors [2] - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies such as Guangsheng Youse, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, China Rare Earth, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Jinli Permanent Magnet [2]