关税+伊以危局引发通胀衰退担忧，美联储仍将"硬刚"特朗普？鲍威尔正在讲话，速来围观>> 相关链接 ...

| 11/11/2 ■投前货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月15日 | | 贵金属 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属延续回调。证期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的押注,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢 价。国际金价处于调整过程中,关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。今晚关注美国PPI、零售销售和周废初清 矢业金人数。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 4月GPI数据让市场更加固惑 -- 整体通胀率同比仅增长2.3%,创下四年来的最低水平,主要得益于食品价格 的下跌。然而,剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率却依然高达2.8%,远超美联储2%的目标。这种"表面降温、内 部火热"的局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in U.S. inflation data, highlighting a cooling trend that poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In April, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 and remaining below expectations for three consecutive months [1]. - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, also falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [1]. - Core inflation remains at a relatively comfortable level for the market, suggesting a sustained cooling trend [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The article raises the question of whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in response to the cooling inflation, which is seen as a favorable condition for such a move [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies, particularly the tariff war, which complicates the inflation outlook [2]. - The decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, as it continues to rely on past mechanisms that may not be suitable for the current economic environment characterized by volatility and unpredictability [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - The article emphasizes that market participants are likely to adjust their behaviors in response to the tariff war, which could lead to immediate inflationary pressures despite the current data showing a cooling trend [3]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential risks associated with the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially given the unsustainable nature of U.S. deficits and the burden of interest payments on national debt [3]. - The ongoing global economic transformation, driven by factors such as AI and changes in the supply chain, adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's decision-making landscape [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant interference of the Trump administration's tariff war on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [1][2] - The April inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both below market expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by the uncertainty stemming from the tariff war, which complicates the decision to potentially initiate interest rate cuts despite the favorable inflation trends [2][3] Group 2 - The decision-making environment for the Federal Reserve has changed significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, with the current economic landscape characterized by irregular shocks and complexities introduced by the Trump administration's policies [3] - The Federal Reserve's historical decision-making mechanisms may not adequately address the new challenges posed by the current economic conditions, leading to market disputes regarding its policy responses [3][4] - The implementation of tariffs has immediate effects on market behavior, suggesting that inflation may rise in anticipation of these changes, rather than as a delayed response [4] Group 3 - The current global economic environment is marked by rapid changes and uncertainties, including the restructuring of global supply chains and the unpredictable impacts of new technologies like AI [4] - The sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies is under scrutiny, particularly concerning the burden of national debt and interest payments, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [4]

美联储古尔斯比：目前是美联储等待更多信息、努力摆脱数据噪音的时机。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：数据可能会有利于一个目标或另一个目标。现在没有必要做出选择，也没有这样做 的基础。 ...

鲍威尔：美联储不会是气候问题的决策者。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：就目前而言，决定等待似乎相当明确。当事态发展时，我们可以酌情迅速采取行 动。 ...

据一位研究了特朗普第一任期内有关美联储推文的经济学家称，特朗普不太可能将解雇美联储主席鲍威 尔的威胁付诸行动，但他为推动降息而发起的公开行动所带来的压力，仍将对美联储的决策产生影响。 约翰霍普金斯大学的经济学教授弗朗西斯科・比安奇（Francesco Bianchi）在接受《市场观察》 （MarketWatch）采访时表示，在特朗普上周发出威胁之后，美联储现在知道，如果出现经济衰退，它 将受到公众的指责。 这将以多种方式损害经济。而对总统来说，这会让他雄心勃勃的减税计划变得更加复杂。 比安奇说："我认为财政部长贝森特明白，这对政府来说绝对是一场灾难，更不用说从更广泛的层面来 看了。" 比安奇说："到时候，不只是特朗普，人们也会说，美联储本应该降息——这才是关键 。" 比安奇补充道："公众舆论正朝着这样一个方向转变，即如果出了问题，那就是美联储的错。我认为这 可能会对美联储实际的决策产生影响。这是一种间接的联系；并不是说他们听从总统的命令。" 目前，市场和美联储在利率前景上存在分歧。衍生品市场的交易员担心经济会出现严重衰退，他们预计 美联储今年将降息100个基点。 另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，特朗普大规 ...

Domestic Economic Indicators - In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with a month-on-month change of 0.3[7] - The social retail sales total for February 2025 increased by 4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%[27] - The total social financing scale for Q1 2025 reached 15.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.37 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[2] Production and Demand - The domestic electric furnace operating rate was 64.1% as of April 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous week[10] - The average daily sales of domestic passenger cars reached 91,789 units as of March 31, 2025[30] - The wholesale price of pork was 20.51 yuan/kg as of April 9, 2025, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg[36] Trade and Investment - In February 2025, the import value increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of 18%[27] - The export value decreased by 3% year-on-year in February 2025, with a month-on-month change of -9%[27] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment in February 2025 was 4.1%, with a month-on-month change of 0.9%[17] Market Volatility and Policy Impact - The announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. led to a temporary decrease in the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to around 4.3%[3] - The South China Industrial Products Index recorded 3,410.15, with a year-on-year change of -371.04[36]