证券研究报告 港股通 中国外运 (598 HK/601598 CH) 国际货代显韧性，2H 盈利环比将改善 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 仓储物流 中国外运发布 1H25 业绩：1）营收 505.2 亿元，同比-10.4%；2）归母净 利 19.5 亿元，同比+0.08%；3）扣非归母净利 14.0 亿元，同比-22.3%，小 幅高于我们扣非净利预期 13.8 亿元，盈利同比下滑主因国际货代业务受关 税负面影响以及专业物流需求偏弱。同时，公司宣布中期每股派息 0.145 元， 分红率 53.5%。我们维持 25-27 年净利预测不变；估值方面，我们认为关税 影响边际减弱，26-27 年国际货代及专业物流市场景气度有望改善，提振公 司盈利和估值。另一方面，公司持续优化资产结构，拟出售路凯国际部分股 权，预计将为公司带来大额处置收益及现金流入。我们上调 PE 估值倍数， 上调 AH 目标价 11%/23%至 6.8 元/5.4 港币，维持"买入"。 中外运敦豪投资收益同比下降-38.7%，占公司归母利润比重下降 代理及相关业务：分部利润同比下滑 1.2% 1H25 来自合 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for the period decreased by 14% to R52 billion, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment [15][30] - Free cash flow improved by more than 70% compared to the prior year, reaching almost ZAR 12.6 billion, a 75% increase [33][34] - Net debt was reduced to $3.7 billion, achieving the target of staying under $4 billion, marking the lowest level since 2016 [12][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the South African business, mining EBITDA increased by 15%, while gas EBITDA rose by 35% due to higher gas prices and sales volumes [37] - Fuels segment saw a decline of 38% due to weaker rand oil prices and lower refining margins [37] - International Chemicals increased its share of group adjusted EBITDA from 9% to 15%, driven by improved U.S. Ethylene margins and stronger palm kernel oil pricing [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macroeconomic environment was highly volatile, influenced by global tariffs and geopolitical tensions, impacting various business segments differently [32] - The chemical segments benefited from stronger U.S. Ethylene margins and a 5% uplift in the overall chemicals basket price [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its foundation, resetting international chemicals, and restoring the South African value chain [8][26] - A commitment to a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is part of the strategic roadmap, with significant progress in renewable energy initiatives [47][50] - The company aims to improve cash generation to accelerate deleveraging while advancing its growth and transformation agenda [27][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the operating environment but expressed confidence in the execution of strategic plans [9][26] - The focus remains on safety, operational reliability, and optimizing capital allocation to navigate ongoing macro volatility [28][41] - Future guidance includes maintaining cost and capital discipline while targeting further reductions in net debt [43][44] Other Important Information - The company invested R600 million in social programs globally, supporting over 250 students and contributing to community infrastructure projects [24][25] - The upcoming retirement of key executives marks a transition in leadership, with new appointments aimed at addressing both short and long-term goals [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx savings and guidance for FY 2026 - The company achieved CapEx below guidance due to a rigorous approach, deferring low-risk activities and optimizing capital spend [56][64] - Guidance for FY 2026 remains similar to FY 2025 despite no shutdown, with expectations for increased volumes from the destoning plant [56][64] Question: Gas volumes and impairment calculations - Gas volumes from Mozambique are expected to ramp up, but total recoverable gas volumes were revised down due to changes in the WACC rate [58][66] - The commissioning of the integrated processing facility is on track, but delays in the CTT project have been encountered [58][73] Question: Outlook for chemical prices and debt reduction - The company is focused on deleveraging, using excess cash to reduce gross debt and improve net debt position [92] - The effective tax rate has increased due to non-permissible deductions, impacting overall tax payments [80]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with a basic profit of HKD 11.32 billion, up 11% year-on-year, but a 9% decline in EBITDA, indicating increased cost pressures and external challenges [2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached HKD 240.66 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [2]. - Retail business (primarily Watsons) grew by 8%, port business by 9%, while infrastructure and telecommunications grew by 6% and 5%, respectively [3]. - The financial and investment segment saw a 10% decline, negatively impacting overall performance [3]. - A significant one-time loss related to the UK telecommunications merger led to a substantial drop in EBITDA [3][6]. Strategic Developments - The merger with Vodafone, completed on May 31, is expected to generate significant long-term benefits, including a commitment to invest GBP 11 billion in a 5G network over the next decade [3][4]. - The merger is projected to yield GBP 700 million in annual cost and capital expenditure synergies by the fifth year post-merger [4]. Port Business Update - The company is in discussions regarding the sale of its overseas port business, which has attracted attention from multiple countries [8][9]. - The transaction involves regulatory scrutiny from China, the US, the UK, and Europe, necessitating changes in the consortium structure to facilitate approval [9][11]. - The port business generated revenue of HKD 23.60 billion, a 9% increase, driven by growth in throughput at key ports [12]. Operational Insights - The company’s throughput increased by 4% to 44 million TEUs, with local and transshipment cargo remaining stable at 65% and 35%, respectively [12]. - Despite challenges in global trade and geopolitical risks, the port business is expected to maintain profitability growth in the second half of the year [12].

Summary of Zhongyuan Expressway Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Zhongyuan Expressway primarily operates in the toll road industry, with over 90% of its revenue derived from toll fees, making it a significant player in the highway sector in Henan Province, China [2][4][3]. Core Points and Arguments - **Revenue Composition**: The company's revenue is predominantly from toll road operations, with minimal contributions from real estate and other services [2][4]. - **Profit Performance**: The company has shown stable profit performance over the years, with notable fluctuations in 2020 and 2022 due to the pandemic's impact on traffic volume and toll fee exemptions [2][6]. - **Future Profitability**: It is anticipated that as the macro economy recovers, traffic volume will increase, particularly with the expected opening of the Zhenglu Expressway by the end of 2026, which will provide additional profit elasticity [2][7][10]. - **Gross Margin Improvement**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 2025 to 2027 due to ongoing financial and management optimizations [5][7]. - **Dividend Policy**: The company has a relatively low dividend payout ratio compared to its peers, committing to a 40% payout, with an actual payout of approximately 43% last year, below the industry average of 52% [2][8]. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is around 4%, increasing to 4.6% by 2026 [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Asset Optimization**: The company is actively optimizing its assets and reducing financial costs, which may lead to a revaluation of its overall value [3][5]. - **Real Estate Focus**: There is a strategic focus on consolidating the real estate segment, with potential divestment from non-core real estate operations to enhance focus on the main toll road business [2][9]. - **Long-term Cash Flow Stability**: The weighted average toll collection period exceeds 17 years, ensuring long-term stable cash flow, with all road assets having a remaining life of over 10 years [2][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding Zhongyuan Expressway's operations, financial performance, and strategic outlook.

Transaction Overview - Sichuan Jinshi Technology Co., Ltd. plans to publicly transfer 100% equity of its subsidiary Hunan Jinshi Technology Co., Ltd. to optimize asset structure and improve resource efficiency [1][2] - The initial transfer price is set at RMB 405.02 million, based on the assessed value of the subsidiary [3][4] Financial Performance of Hunan Jinshi - As of March 31, 2025, Hunan Jinshi reported total assets of RMB 390.12 million and total liabilities of RMB 58.91 million, resulting in owner's equity of RMB 331.21 million [2][3] - The company experienced a net loss of RMB 14.58 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, and a cash flow deficit from operating activities of RMB 7.50 million [3][4] Valuation and Pricing Strategy - The fair value of Hunan Jinshi is assessed at RMB 405.02 million, reflecting a 6.73% increase over its book value [3] - If no suitable buyers are found during the initial public offering period, the company will reduce the price by 15% for subsequent rounds of bidding [3][4] Purpose and Impact of the Transaction - The sale aims to dispose of idle assets, optimize resource allocation, and alleviate the financial burden on the company, providing funds for future development [4] - Upon successful completion of the transaction, Hunan Jinshi will no longer be included in the company's consolidated financial statements [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jinxin Fertility has announced a warning regarding the impairment of goodwill and intangible assets, indicating a proactive approach to clear long-standing impairment risks and strengthen its operational foundation for future growth [1] Group 1: Management Changes - The return of CEO Dong Yang to a core management role and the appointment of two co-CEOs with extensive experience in assisted reproductive technology have bolstered market confidence [2] - The active trading performance of the company's stock, with a turnover of 218 million HKD and a turnover rate of 2.48%, reflects market recognition of the management team [2] - Dong Yang's temporary assumption of CFO duties enhances decision-making efficiency and risk control through a synergistic approach between business and finance [2] Group 2: Impairment Rationale - The impairment announcement aims to optimize assets by shedding non-core business burdens and focusing on high-potential markets [3] - The HRC business segment has faced continuous profit decline for seven years due to intensified competition and rising operational costs since its acquisition in 2018 [3] - The retirement of core medical team members post-IPO has created challenges in brand trust and client relationships, necessitating time for the new team to establish credibility [3] - Geopolitical changes and tightening U.S. immigration policies have increased uncertainty in overseas business growth, prompting the need for asset impairment [3] Group 3: Strategic Direction - The company has established a short-term strategy to pause non-core acquisitions and accelerate capital recovery, while focusing on deepening its presence in China and Southeast Asia in the medium to long term [4] - The impairment primarily targets overseas business segments, allowing for structural adjustments that align with both short-term and long-term goals [4] - The domestic market is supported by policy changes, such as the inclusion of assisted reproductive technology in health insurance, which is expected to accelerate demand [5] - The new headquarters in Chengdu, set to be operational by 2026, will enhance service capacity through advanced facilities [5] - The company aims to leverage its clinical data platform to improve success rates and expand into new insurance products for fertility preservation [5] Group 4: Expansion Outcomes - The new hospital layouts are beginning to yield results, with projected IVF cycles reaching 4,200 in 2024, contributing over 260 million RMB in revenue [6] - The company anticipates that new hospital revenues will exceed current levels in Shenzhen within two years, establishing a strong third growth pillar [7] Group 5: Conclusion - The strategic restructuring and business adjustments are entering a critical phase amid industry changes and policy benefits [8] - The company's current valuation remains reasonable and is significantly lower than recent international transactions, indicating potential for valuation recovery as risks are cleared [8] - The Indonesian market, through localized cooperation, is expected to emerge as a new growth driver [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of approximately $510 million for the quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $280 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase in EBITDA and cash flow, nearly doubling from the previous year [5][19] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached $418 million, with a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 63% [19] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $88 million, impacted by approximately $25 million in non-recurring transaction-related costs, while net debt stood at approximately $2.6 billion, showing a 10% improvement in overall leverage [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Daily production exit rate for June was approximately 1.14 Bcf per day, with quarterly production averaging over 1.15 Bcf per day, with 65% of produced volumes generated in the expanded Central region [19] - The company has increased its total proved reserves by 65% since year-end 2024, indicating strong asset base resilience [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted improvements in in-basin natural gas differentials, which are expected to benefit from rising natural gas demand driven by data center developments in the Appalachian region [15][16] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for natural gas, particularly for power generation and off-grid sources, as indicated by significant investments in the region [61][62] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on a disciplined capital allocation strategy centered around debt reduction, returning capital to shareholders, and growing its portfolio through strategic acquisitions [8][10] - The partnership with Carlyle is aimed at supporting accretive acquisitions, with a potential to fund up to $2 billion worth of acquisitions without raising new equity capital [12][13] - The company aims to optimize cash flow from low decline energy assets while enhancing growth through strategic acquisitions [5][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering strong operational and financial results despite increased market volatility due to external factors [7] - The company anticipates continued growth opportunities in the coming years, particularly in the context of maturing assets and M&A activity [12][13] - Management highlighted the undervaluation of shares and the potential for a re-rate based on strong fundamentals and consistent performance [31][32] Other Important Information - The company has returned approximately $2 billion in shareholder returns and debt repayments since its IPO in 2017, demonstrating a strong commitment to creating shareholder value [10][30] - The company has a healthy liquidity position of approximately $420 million, providing flexibility to navigate volatile markets [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the Oklahoma JV fit into the core portfolio? - Management indicated that the Oklahoma JV is a steady program with potential for expansion into other basins, emphasizing the strong returns and ongoing development opportunities [40][42] Question: How are discussions going with Carlyle regarding dual procurement? - Management confirmed ongoing evaluations of opportunities with Carlyle, emphasizing the importance of disciplined acquisition strategies and the favorable environment for acquisitions due to lower commodity prices [44][45] Question: Can you provide information on land sales expectations? - Management noted higher realizations on undeveloped acreage sales and expressed confidence in additional sales opportunities, particularly in the Permian region [50][54] Question: What is the status of well retirements and third-party business? - Management reported a consistent pace of well plugging activities, with approximately 400 wells expected to be plugged this year, while third-party revenue remains steady [55][57] Question: How does the company view the AI data center opportunity? - Management expressed enthusiasm about the growing demand for natural gas driven by data center developments, highlighting potential pricing benefits and smaller-scale power generation opportunities [61][62] Question: What is the updated synergy capture expectation? - Management raised the synergy capture expectation to approximately $60 million, up from initial estimates of $50 million, citing successful integration efforts and operational efficiencies [64][66] Question: What are the footprint expansion opportunities post-Maverick acquisition? - Management highlighted ongoing portfolio optimization efforts across multiple basins, with confidence in identifying further opportunities for cost synergies and production enhancements [71][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $144 million, a 4% increase from $138.6 million in Q1 2025 [4] - The company reaffirmed its full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $615 million to $625 million [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA increased to $142.9 million in Q1 2026 from $125.6 million in Q1 2025, representing a 13.8% increase [5] - Physical water disposal volumes rose to 2,770,000 barrels per day in Q1 2026, up 12.4% from 2,470,000 barrels per day in the prior year [5] - Crude oil logistics adjusted EBITDA decreased to $9.6 million in Q1 2026 from $18.6 million in Q1 2025 due to reduced sales and lower crude oil prices [7] - Liquids logistics adjusted EBITDA fell to $2.9 million in Q1 2026 from $5.7 million in Q1 2025, adjusted for previously announced asset sales [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Grand Mesa pipeline volumes averaged approximately 55,000 barrels per day in Q1 2026, down from 63,000 barrels per day in Q1 2025, but July volumes were approximately 25% higher than June [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on rightsizing its asset footprint, paying down debt, and reducing overall leverage [3][4] - The strategy includes opportunistic capital allocation, including repurchasing debt and equity that provide the highest return [12] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Water Solutions segment's performance and noted that they have not seen a drop-off in customer activity despite market uncertainties [6] - There is an expectation of stronger performance in the Crude Oil Logistics segment as volumes on the Grand Mesa system are anticipated to ramp up [12] Other Important Information - The company closed on the sale of its RAC marketing business and a majority of its wholesale propane business, using proceeds to pay down debt [3] - The company repurchased approximately 4.7 million common units at an average price of $4.3 per unit, representing about 3.5% of outstanding common units [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future common unit repurchases - Management indicated they will continue to be opportunistic with capital allocation and may pursue further common unit repurchases depending on market conditions [16][17] Question: Produced water volumes for the quarter - Management noted that produced water volumes were slightly lighter than expected but still above internal budget, with confidence in continued performance for the remainder of the year [21][23] Question: Thoughts on ARRIS acquisition by Western - Management congratulated ARRIS on their acquisition but stated that their model differs as they do not focus on recycling, welcoming consolidation in the industry as it can lead to greater efficiency [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - Dow Chemical reported a significant decline in performance across all departments for Q2, reflecting a broader market downturn similar to BASF's 81% drop in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Net Sales**: $10.104 billion, down 7% year-on-year and down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][10]. - **Volume**: Decreased by 1% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, with growth in the US and Canada offset by declines in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India [3]. - **Prices**: Fell by 7% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter due to pressure on global chemical product prices [4]. - **GAAP Net Loss**: $801 million, compared to a profit of $458 million in the same quarter last year, resulting in a total loss of $1.091 billion for the first half of the year [5][10]. - **Operating EBIT**: Loss of $21 million, down from a profit of $819 million year-on-year, primarily due to price declines and reduced equity earnings [5][10]. - **Cash Flow from Operations**: Negative $470 million, a decrease of $1.3 billion year-on-year, indicating significant pressure on profit margins [6][10]. Departmental Performance - **Packaging and Specialty Plastics**: - Net Sales: $5.0 billion, down 9% year-on-year [11][12]. - Operating EBIT: $71 million, down 89% year-on-year [11][12]. - **Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure**: - Net Sales: $2.786 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year [13]. - Operating EBIT: Loss of $185 million, compared to a profit of $7 million in the same quarter last year [13]. - **High Performance Materials and Coatings**: - Net Sales: $2.129 billion, down 5% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter [14][15]. - Operating EBIT: $152 million, a slight increase year-on-year [14][15]. Future Outlook - Dow Chemical anticipates improvements from recent growth projects and long-term strategic investments, which are expected to enhance its position in higher-value applications and attractive end markets [16]. - The company is optimizing its asset base by shutting down three upstream assets in Europe and selling its 50% stake in a joint venture, continuing a series of over 20 asset actions initiated since 2023 [16][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The successful issuance of 8.5 billion yuan in 6-year convertible bonds indicates that the company's intrinsic value is gradually being recognized. The company has ample land reserves and is actively optimizing its assets by revitalizing inefficient inventory. The downward pressure from the cycle has already been reflected in performance, and there is limited room for significant declines in the future. The company emphasizes shareholder returns and market value management, continuously consolidating its leading position in the industry, with considerable room for valuation recovery [2][4][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Event Description - The company successfully issued 8.5 billion yuan in 6-year convertible bonds with a first-year coupon rate of 2.20%, increasing by 0.05% each subsequent year [4]. Company Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the company achieved sales of 87.6 billion yuan (down 8.7%) and an area of 4.31 million square meters (down 22.2%), with an average price of 20,300 yuan per square meter (up 17.3%). The company remains the industry leader in sales [8]. Investment Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its investment, with land acquisition amounting to 30.8 billion yuan (up 318.0%) and an area of 1.46 million square meters (up 114.5%) in the first four months of 2025. The average price of land acquired was 21,200 yuan per square meter (up 94.9%) [8]. Financial Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 4.9 billion, 4.8 billion, and 5.6 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 19.9, 20.3, and 17.3 times [8].