1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 现实端表现尚可，矿价相对偏强 | 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求高位回落，且钢材需求易季节性走弱，淡季 钢市难以承接高铁水，后续延续回落态势，需求端利好效应趋弱。与此同时，前期低发运使得近期港 口到货持续回落，但最新矿商发运大幅回升至年内单周第二高水平，预计港口到货将重回高位，相应 的内矿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求有所减量，当前降幅仍有限，给予矿价支撑， 但已然趋于触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，港口到货延续回落，但海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，外 矿供应高位，相应的内矿生产依然积极，矿石供应压力偏大。目前来看，铁矿石需求趋于触顶，而供 应维持高位，供需格局在走弱，相对利好则是需求维持高位，且期价贴水较大，下行阻力存在，预计 矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注铁水变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面表现弱稳，矿价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求开始回落，目前降幅有限，仍将给予矿价支 撑，但矿石需求已然触顶，利好效应不强。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运高位回落，而内矿生 产积极，矿石供应维持高位，且回升预期未变。总之，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿 价低位回 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that for the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line as the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term trend of iron ore 2509 is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. High terminal consumption of ore supports the ore price, but the steel market is facing seasonal weakness, limiting the increase in ore demand and weakening the positive effect. - Although the port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are falling, the overall decline is not large, and domestic ore production is active, keeping the overall supply at a high level. - Due to the warming of market sentiment, the discounted ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the increase in ore demand is limited, while the supply remains high. The fundamentals are still likely to weaken, and the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade relationship shows signs of easing, with the negotiation outcome mainly depending on the US. The market expects the US to reduce tariffs to 80%, while China hopes to restore tariffs to the level before April. Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a vacuum, and future incremental policies will depend on tariff impacts and the performance of the equity market [3]. - Short - term demand has basically peaked but the inflection point is yet to come. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export end. As supply continues to rise, the iron ore supply - demand is expected to remain in a loose pattern [3]. - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The price range for the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and for the outer - market FE06 contract, it is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Logic - After the holiday, the iron ore price was generally weak. The monetary policy on May 7th caused a price pulse, and the Politburo meeting at the end of April and the monetary policy in early May both saw the fulfillment of positive factors. The terminal demand expectation is still weak. Although the high export data in April showed high resilience, the "rush - to - export" growth rate significantly declined. The weekly high - frequency data shows that the decline in the apparent demand for finished products last week exceeded the previous and seasonal levels. The rebar inventory decreased seasonally, while the hot - rolled coil inventory slightly increased. Future attention should be paid to the expected changes in exports and the impact of the weakening manufacturing processing profit on hot - rolled coils [2]. Supply - In April, iron ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume in April was 10313.80 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate rising from - 6.5% in March to 1.3%, and the import value year - on - year rising from - 21.5% in March to - 12.2%. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady recovery in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron production has remained above 245 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks (Steel Union data). Considering the decline in the apparent demand for finished products and the expected impact on the export end, the upward potential of molten iron is limited, and there is a high probability that the short - term demand has reached its peak. However, the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is necessary to wait for the verification of negative factors on the export end. It is expected that the molten iron production will remain at a relatively high level next week [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Future attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [3].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 12 日） 观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求维持高位，继续给予矿价支撑，但钢材需求 面临季节性走弱，难以承接高铁水局面，预计矿石需求将触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿商 发运积极，而内矿供应回升，铁矿石供应维持高位，且增量预期未退。总之，中美贸易谈判取得实质 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the concern of demand reaching the peak, which puts pressure on the ore price [2] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Although the steel mill production is stable and the ore demand is at a high level, the poor performance of steel prices and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand. Meanwhile, the supply of iron ore has returned to a high level, so the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of demand reaching the peak concern and the ore price under pressure [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has weakened. The steel mill production is stable, and the ore demand is at a high level, which supports the ore price. However, the poor steel price and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand, and the positive effect is weakening. Overseas miners are actively shipping, the domestic ore supply is stable, the iron ore supply has returned to a high level, and there is still an expectation of increase. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weakly volatile intraday. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, as the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. High supply and demand co - exist, the fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, but the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore shows high supply and demand. Steel mills are actively producing during the peak season, and ore demand is good, supporting the ore price. However, the profit situation of steel mills is changing, and there is an expectation of weakening steel demand, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. Overseas ore supply remains high, and domestic ore supply is stable, so the supply pressure of iron ore persists. The fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, while the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价低位震荡 | 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局平稳运行，钢厂生产积极，矿石需求表现强劲给予矿价支撑，但存触顶担忧，利 好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿石供应高位运行，而内矿供应相对平稳，整体铁矿石供应维持高位。 目前来看，铁矿石需求表现强劲，给予矿价支撑，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. Steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising at a high level. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased again week - on - week, both hitting new highs for the year. With pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, supporting the relatively strong operation of ore prices. However, steel profits are shrinking recently, and steel prices are not performing well, so there are doubts about whether high demand can be maintained. Domestic port arrivals have declined, while overseas miners' shipments are stable. The overseas ore supply is stable, and domestic ore production is weakening. In the short term, the ore supply is weakly stable. With high demand and pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, but the expectation of supply increase remains, and there are concerns about demand reaching a peak. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 14,261.00, with a week - on - week increase of 205.00, a decrease of 259.40 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 498.11 compared with the same period last year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9,073.03, with a week - on - week increase of 20.11, a decrease of 37.42 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 306.90 compared with the same period last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports is 2,325.30, a week - on - week decrease of 200.20, a decrease of 185.30 compared with last month, and a decrease of 63.50 compared with the same period last year. The global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 2,925.50, a week - on - week increase of 17.80, a decrease of 159.20 compared with last month, and a decrease of 84.80 compared with the same period last year. The domestic port arrivals have declined, while overseas miners' shipments are stable. According to the shipping schedule, the domestic port arrival volume is expected to increase steadily, and the overseas ore supply is stable. Domestic ore production is weakening, and the short - term ore supply is weakly stable [1][2] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 244.35, a week - on - week increase of 4.23, an increase of 7.07 compared with last month, and an increase of 15.63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily consumption of imported ore of 247 steel mills is 301.39, a week - on - week increase of 3.29, an increase of 7.89 compared with last month, and an increase of 21.92 compared with the same period last year. The average weekly value of iron ore transactions at main ports is 107.68, a week - on - week increase of 6.12, a decrease of 0.78 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.34 compared with the same period last year. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased again week - on - week, both hitting new highs for the year. With pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, but there are doubts about whether high demand can be maintained due to shrinking steel profits and poor steel prices [1][2]