Core Insights - The era of relying on price differences from famous liquor brands is over, and the trend of low-margin, high-volume sales will dominate the retail channels in the future [1] - The penetration rate of instant retail in the liquor market is currently about 1%, with a market size of nearly 20 billion yuan, expected to reach 6% penetration and over 100 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The future competitive landscape in instant retail will focus on enhancing supply chain efficiency, deep integration between liquor companies and platforms, and localized market services [1][4] Company Developments - 1919 Group is undergoing significant changes, including the potential elimination of 1,500 franchise stores by the end of the year to ensure the quality of franchisees and consumer experience [2] - The company is transitioning from a traditional B2C/O2O model to an F2B2C model, shifting its profit model from "price differences on famous liquor" to "strategic branding" [2] - 1919 has launched a new business format called "1919 Liquor Life Hall," which combines various sales strategies to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [1][2] Market Trends - Instant retail is entering a period of rapid growth, with projections indicating that the market size for instant retail will reach approximately 780 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 20% year-on-year [3] - The instant retail penetration rate in Sichuan is expected to reach 10%, significantly higher than the average of about 3% in other provinces [3] - The mixed business model is becoming mainstream in the liquor retail industry, with instant retail accounting for 12% of the market share [3] Consumer Behavior - The growth of instant retail in liquor is driven by the demand for "immediate consumption" among younger consumers, who prefer convenience and quick access to products [4][5] - Nighttime orders account for over 35% of liquor sales in instant retail, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards spontaneous purchases during non-business hours [5] - New consumption scenarios, such as camping and gifting during holidays, are expanding the market for instant retail in liquor [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the surge in demand for outdoor sports equipment and apparel during the summer, with instant retail becoming the mainstream choice for consumers [1][2] - Instant retail has seen significant growth, with sales of running shoes, sports T-shirts, and basketball shoes increasing over 200% year-on-year since June, while swimming and cycling products have also seen over 100% growth [1][2] - Major brands like Decathlon have experienced substantial sales increases, with swimming gear sales doubling and sun protection clothing sales increasing by 30 times during promotional events [1][3] Group 2 - The convenience of instant retail has been particularly beneficial during holiday seasons, with children's and father's day sales seeing a 70% increase in product quantity and nearly 60% increase in transaction value for sports apparel [2] - Recent sporting events have further fueled consumer enthusiasm for sports, with significant sales growth in related products, such as a 120% increase in ball-related goods and a doubling of swimming gear sales in Jiangsu province [2] - Decathlon has partnered with Meituan to launch seasonal activities and services, resulting in nearly 200% year-on-year growth in overall sales during promotional periods [3][4] Group 3 - The trend of purchasing larger items through instant retail is on the rise, with Decathlon's children's bicycles seeing a tenfold increase in sales during the first month of availability on Meituan [4] - Meituan's instant delivery services for larger sports equipment ensure safe and timely delivery, making it easier for consumers to purchase these items [4] - The collaboration between major sports retailers and Meituan is expected to continue driving growth, with Decathlon projected to achieve record order volumes in 2024 and further doubling sales by 2025 [4]

开市客(COST.US)公布，6月份零售总额增长8%，高于5月份的6.8%。经汽油价格和汇率调整后的五周可比销售额增长了 6.2%，其中国际市场增长了8.2%，加拿大市场增长了7.9%，而美国市场增长5.5%。华尔街分析师对开市客的前景看法不 一。 瑞银持中立态度，虽然开市客的整体可比销售额增速因礼品卡和贵金属销售的高基数效应而趋于平缓，但分析师Michael Lasser及其团队认为，市场已经预料到了这种放缓。 截至发稿，开市客盘前涨0.4%，报985.5美元。该股今年以来累计上涨7%，表现优于标普零售指数ETF(XRT)。 根据TipRanks的数据，总体而言，华尔街分析师予开市客"适度买入"评级，平均目标价为1107.89美元，较当前股价高出 12%。 Evercore ISI分析师Greg Melich表示，开市客核心可比销售额增长6%，这一数据很难被忽视，但他也指出，6月份的业绩 证实了下半年的销售放缓趋势。他强调，开市客已连续两个月报告其美国客流量低于3%，而之前的趋势是高于5%。 美国银行对开市客的前景持更为乐观的态度。该行预计，7月份客流量将有所回升，这得益于全美各地延长会员店营业时 间以及周 ...

前段时间，高盛隔空给外卖大战算了一笔账： 预计未来一年里，阿里外卖、京东将分别亏损410亿与260 亿人民币，美团EBIT（息税前利润）减少250亿。 近千亿钞票撒进焚化炉，只为让全国人民多喝两杯奶茶。 连月的混战在上个周末再迎高峰，"满18减18"、"一天三顿不超过10块钱"的夸张补贴，与外卖平台不断 刷新的大字报两相呼应，勾勒出外卖市场的烈火烹油。 不过铁打的美团，流水的对手，曾经凶悍的京东休养生息，阿里接棒发起冲锋，豪掷五百亿补贴宣言， 逼得美团紧急上强度。截至周一，阿里淘宝闪购与美团即时零售的日订单分别突破8000万单与1.2亿单。 外卖的双寡头格局由来已久，京东高调进场以前，美团和饿了么合计占据超过九成市场份额，纵有抖音 强攻本地生活、小红书试水到店酒旅，外卖都是各大平台默契绕行的无人区。 久攻本地生活不下的阿里也曾选择躺平，新零售业务出清，饿了么埋头减亏。但人到中年最怕被卷，过 去三个月，阿里本地生活阵容巨变，新近整合的淘宝闪购走到台前，已成活化石的饿了么退居幕后，连 同飞猪一起被打包送往隔壁电商事业群。 吴泳铭的内部信如此概括这一系列变化： "集中目标，统一作战。" 轻描淡写的八个字背后，是一场 ...

摩根士丹利于7月10日发布研究报告，将阿里巴巴美股目标价从180美元下调至150美元。该行指 出，预计阿里巴巴在截至6月的第一财季，于外卖和闪购业务上的投入已达约100亿元，这将导致其 短期盈利承压。 摩根士丹利进一步预计，阿里在第二财季的相关投入可能翻倍至200亿元，将拖累其淘天集团与本地 生活集团的EBITA同比下跌超过40%。尽管如此，该行仍看好阿里巴巴AI赋能的潜力，并维持其电 商偏好排序：阿里 > 美团 > 京东。 此次目标价下调的背景是阿里巴巴、美团、京东三大平台在即时零售领域展开的激烈竞争，尤其是围 绕"外卖"业务的补贴大战。截至发稿，今日阿里巴巴港股股价下跌0.68%至102.2港元，京东股价 下跌2.47%至122.2港元，美团股价下跌1.43%至117.5港元。 同样关注阿里近期动向的开源证券，在其7月7日的研报中表示，尽管淘天集团短期内因加大闪购投 入而面临压力，但电商技术服务费贡献的收入增量，以及积极投入AI基础设施建设有望推动云业务增 长提速，可部分对冲资本开支（capex）增加的影响。该机构看好阿里中长期在用户、供应链及物流 方面的优势，有助于其抢占即时零售市场份额。基于此，开源证 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to increase investments in instant retail and food delivery services in the coming quarters, which will significantly impact short-term profitability, but these factors are already reflected in the stock price. The strong growth momentum in cloud computing and leading position in AI provide long-term value support [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Position - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba but lowers the target price from $176 to $150, indicating a potential upside of 38.9% from the current stock price of $107.99 [1]. - Since April 2024, competition in food delivery and instant retail has intensified, with Meituan launching a three-year support plan worth 100 billion RMB and JD.com initiating a one-year subsidy project worth 10 billion RMB [1][2]. - Alibaba's food delivery strategy was launched later, with a one-year subsidy plan worth 500 billion RMB starting on July 2 [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Growth - Alibaba's market share in food delivery and instant retail has rapidly increased from over 20% in 2024 to 36% by July 5, 2025, while Meituan holds 55% and JD.com 9% [2]. - This growth is attributed to the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Taobao and Tmall, leadership consolidation, aggressive subsidy strategies, and traffic support [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - HSBC has raised revenue forecasts for Alibaba for FY26-28 by 3-8%, reflecting accelerated growth in instant retail and food delivery orders, but has lowered profit expectations by 7-22% [9]. - For FY26, Alibaba is expected to incur losses of 2.7 RMB per order in food delivery and 3.7 RMB per order in instant shopping, with an overall loss of 55 billion RMB in local life services [9][10]. - The peak of investment is anticipated in the September quarter, with normalization expected in the second half of FY26 [9]. Group 4: Cloud Computing and AI Outlook - HSBC remains optimistic about Alibaba's cloud computing prospects, forecasting over 20% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue for FY26, driven by strong AI demand [10][16]. - Although there may be quarterly fluctuations in cloud business gross margins, they are expected to maintain a high single-digit level [10]. - In the generative AI infrastructure as a service (GenAI IaaS) market, Alibaba ranks first with a market share of 23.5% in the second half of 2024, benefiting from its leading scale, strong product capabilities, and large enterprise customer base [16].

从出行数据来看，25Q1出行数据基本符合预期。2025Q1，国内出游人次17.94亿，比上年同期增加3.75 亿，同比增长26.4%。其中，城镇居民国内出游人次13.18亿，同比增长22.4%；农村居民国内出游人次 4.76亿，同比增长39.2%。 出行链：25Q2出行人次符合预期，跨境旅游需求激增 人次和收入完全恢复到2019年水平。25Q2几大节假日增速平稳，清明/五一/端午旅游人次同比 +6.3%/6.4%/5.7%。2025年旅游整体仍然注重性价比，下沉市场和县域旅游蓬勃发展，头部目的地分 流。跨境出游快速恢复，2025Q1出入境人次1.6亿人，yoy+15.3%，恢复到2019年的95.6%，其中内地居 民0.8亿，yoy+15.4%，外国人入境同比增长33.4%，预计25年随着运力供给复苏，出入境游增速有望仍 然保持双位数以上。 年轻人和银发需求共振，下沉化贡献增量，跨境游增长超预期。马蜂窝发布的《年轻旅行者观察报告》 调查表明，受访者中拒绝盲目跟风前往网红目的地的比例高达81%；45岁以上的中老年旅游者占比达到 36.81%，新一代老年人平均每年进行8次国内旅游，84%的老年游客希望享受更好的旅 ...

没想到，外卖小哥给我打电话的时候，已经是一个半小时之后了。 我和朋友们聊，发现类似的事情不止发生在我身上，也不止发生在淘宝闪购上。 基本上都是被平台丰厚的大额红包吸引下了单，以为很快就能收到外卖。没想到等小哥到达的时候，人已经饿得在地上扭曲翻滚阴暗爬行了。 7月5号，淘宝闪购启动了第一个冲单日，史称「超级星期六」。平台拿出双十一级别的资源，联合饿了么展开补贴大战。美团随即跟进，放开限制，全力 补贴。 在年初京东高调宣布入局外卖，向美团发起冲锋之后，外卖市场又迎来了新一轮的大战，淘宝甚至已经不把百亿补贴放在眼里，直接宣布了一年500亿的 补贴力度。 这一波，已经完全不输当年百度外卖、饿了么和美团的三国杀大战了。 大家最近有没有发现，最近点外卖，越来越容易超时了。 前几天我点了个生煎，用的是闪购给的满18减17.5元的的大额红包，预计是40分钟内能送到。 但各大平台打得如火如荼，补贴砸得血流成河。消费者却发现按时吃上外卖变得越来越难了，外卖小哥发现自己被扣的超时费越来越多了，商家发现自己 出餐的压力越来越大了。 这场商战，到底能打出个什么结果？ 这期内容，我们来聊聊最近这场外卖大战。 01 一个很有趣的现象是，这 ...

以下文章来源于时代财经APP ，作者庞宇 时代财经APP . 聚焦于企业财经新闻，互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120230006 商家打单机"快冒烟"。 文 ｜ 庞宇 编辑 ｜ 罗丽娟 来源｜ 时代财经APP（ID： tf-app） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 刚过去的7月第一个周末，外卖补贴大战掀起高潮，相关话题冲上多个平台热搜。阿里巴巴旗下淘宝闪购、美团两大平台"天降"优惠券，彻底点燃消费者的 热情，史无前例的"爆单"盛况让商家和骑手始料未及。 "太突然了""一下就爆单了""骑手都忙疯了""后面实在忙不过来只能暂时关闭线上外卖渠道。"——回忆起这场补贴风暴，杭州本地某连锁超市的店长向时代 财经表示。 不停地吐出订单的打单机、忙得不可开交的店员和骑手、以及刷屏各大社交平台的"薅羊毛"晒图，共同创造了中国互联网史上难得一见的即时零售对决图 景。 而这一盛况仍将持续上演。时代财经从接近阿里人士处了解到，上周六是阿里巴巴制定的百日闪购增长计划的第一个冲单日。自7月起，淘宝闪购推出"超级 星期6"活动，消费者每个周六都可在这里买到优惠力度更大的商品，领取涵盖5个时段的加码券包，包括早餐、午餐、晚餐、下午茶及夜宵时 ...

截至7月10日收盘，电子身份证概念下跌1.63%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，京北方、东信和 平、楚天龙等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有11只，涨幅居前的有天融信、中科江南、思特奇等，分别上涨 3.07%、2.85%、1.25%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅能源 | 3.39 | 兵装重组概念 | -3.20 | | 房屋检测 | 2.89 | 电子身份证 | -1.63 | | 有机硅概念 | 2.51 | 无人零售 | -1.34 | | 租售同权 | 2.45 | PET铜箔 | -1.29 | | 信托概念 | 2.07 | 数字货币 | -1.11 | | 稀土永磁 | 1.95 | PCB概念 | -0.97 | | 毛发医疗 | 1.77 | 移动支付 | -0.94 | | 水泥概念 | 1.75 | AI PC | -0.91 | | 物业管理 | 1.70 | AI手机 | -0.83 | | 装配式建筑 | 1.68 | PEEK材料 | -0.79 | 资金面上看， ...