【冠通期货研究报告】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.40个百分点至78.63%，PVC开工 率转而增加，处于近年同期中性水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.58个百分点，下游制品 订单不佳。出口方面，上周出口签单小幅减少，印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限，台湾台塑1月份 CFR中国环比持平，但CFR印度、CFR东南亚分别下跌20美元/吨、30美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房 周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近试生产。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均 升至扩张区间，陕西差别电价政策征求意见稿发布，反内卷情绪进一步升温，财政部提前下达2026 年以旧换新及"两重"额度，宏观氛围偏暖，大宗商品市场情绪提振，氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生 产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高 ...

上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.40个百分点至78.63%，PVC开工 率转而增加，处于近年同期中性水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.58个百分点，下游制品 订单不佳。出口方面，上周出口签单小幅减少，印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限，台湾台塑1月份 CFR中国环比持平，但CFR印度、CFR东南亚分别下跌20美元/吨、30美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房 周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近试生产。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均 升至扩张区间，陕西差别电价政策征求意见稿发布，反内卷情绪进一步升温，财政部提前下达2026 年以旧换新及"两重"额度，宏观氛围偏暖，大宗商品市场情绪提振，氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生 产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位，电石价格稳定，印度 ...

从参与调研的机构来看，2025年12月共有71家公募机构调研较为积极，调研次数均不低于20次。其中， 华夏基金以100次调研位居第一，成为当月调研最勤奋的机构，其调研个股多集中在机械设备和电子行 业。博时基金以90次调研位列第二，同样重点关注电子和机械设备行业。南方基金以77次调研排名第 三，其调研个股也以电子和机械设备行业为主。 具体来看，2025年12月，电子和机械设备行业最受公募调研青睐，电子行业中高达64只个股获得公募调 研关注，合计调研次数达654次居首，海光信息、领益智造和灿芯股份成为该行业中公募关注较高个 股。机械设备行业被调研505次紧随其后，该行业中高达72只个股获得公募调研关注，是所有行业中被 调研个股数量最多的行业，其中杰瑞股份、博盈特焊和伟创电气成为该行业中最受关注个股。 此外，电力设备、医药生物、汽车、计算机和基础化工行业的调研次数均超过200次，覆盖个股数量也 均不低于28只。 个股方面，长安汽车以88次调研成为最受公募关注的个股，公司主要从事汽车整车及核心零部件的研 发、制造与销售，以汽车为核心主业，正加速向智能低碳出行科技公司转型，并同步推进新能源、智能 化与全球化三大方向。 ...

咱们不说虚的，也不制造焦虑，下面，我们来听听内行人的预测，或许有4个现象很可能会在很多地 方"显形"，而且跟咱们普通人的房子、工作、老人、钱袋子都高度相关。 提前了解、提前准备，你至少不会到时候被吓一跳。 一、房子：从"谁买谁赚"变成"用来住的东西" 最直观的变化，先从大家最看重的房子开始。 马上就要进入2026年了，最近身边讨论"未来几年日子会怎么样"的人越来越多。 有人说："现在大环境不太稳，我是不是该更保守一点？"也有人问："是不是有什么机会，可以提前布 局？" 前几年，小区里碰到邻居聊天，十有八九会说"再买套房子保值"，甚至有亲戚凑钱也要囤一套学区房， 觉得"谁买谁赚"。 可现在再看，身边想卖房的人越来越多，挂了大半年没动静的二手房也不少。 这种变化不是突然来的，明年只会更明显——房子彻底回归"用来住"的本质，投资属性会越来越弱。 之所以会这样，根源其实是两方面的变化叠加。 一方面是买房的人少了，尤其是刚需群体在缩水。这几年身边年轻人结婚越来越晚，25到29岁本该是买 房的主力，可现在不少人选择先拼事业，甚至暂时不婚。 再加上出生人口逐年减少，从2016年的1883万跌到2024年的954万，未来需要 ...

商业航天板块大业股份6连板。一图速览今日连板股>> | 進板股 | -12.31 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 截至收盘斩获连板个股 | | 股票名称 | 连板大数 | 所属概念 | | 锋龙股份 | 6 | 机器人 | | 大业股份 | 6 | 商业航天 | | 泰尔股份 | 5 | 商业航天 | | 宏英智能 | 3 | 机器人+商业航天 | | 御银股份 | 3 | 房地产 | | 雷科防务 | 3 | 商业航天 | | 五洲新春 | 3 | 机器人 | | 美能能源 | 2 | 天然气 | | *ST东易 | 2 | 算力 | | 友邦吊顶 | 2 | 建筑装饰 | | 南兴股份 | 2 | 机器人 | | 天创时尚 | 2 | 直播电商 | | 众望布艺 | 2 | 纺织服装 | | 天铭科技 | 2 | 机器人 | 12月31日，Wind数据显示，A股市场共计63只个股涨停。其中机器人板块多股连板，锋龙股份6连板、 宏英智能3连板；商业航天板块大业股份6连板。一图速览今日连板股>> ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 12月29日，著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，在一场对话中对当下热议的白银走势，人民币汇 率，以及市场走向等做出了观点鲜明的判断，并展望了2026年的政策大方向。 洪灝指出，贵金属方面，因为最近两个星期涨得太疯狂，比如现在白银的盘面情况； 让人想到1980年历史性的逼空行情，当时白银涨到了50美元一盎司。 但即便在那次逼空行情中，白银也没有出现连续8个月上涨的情况， 而且，这个月白银的大阳线，远远超过了80年代顶部的那根大阳线。 因此，洪灝建议应该见好就收，等待明年再布局。 洪灝早在半年前，就已明确提示白银的投资机会--银价绝对会创历史新高，投资报也最早予以跟踪分 析，并给出了具体的投资标的，点此查看。 当时国内唯一的这只白银基金其净值尚在1元附近，如今净值早已翻倍，其二级市场价格更是大涨200% 多。 但是， 洪灝同时指出，贵金属基于美元信用走弱的长线逻辑依然成立， 无论是黄金还是其他贵金属，涨势还没有结束。 财政政策上，他认为当前广义财政赤字率偏低， 面对经济数据走软，应大幅提升至20%左右以提振经济，并预计2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

2025.12. 25 本文字数：551，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:29 锂板块低开，盛新锂能、融捷股份低开超4%，永兴材料、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业低开超2%。消 息面上，据多方媒体报道，宁德时代宜春枧下窝锂矿预计春节前后复产。 09:28 物流、航运港口、统一大市场板块盘初走强，胜通能源十连板，重庆港涨停，北部湾港涨超 8%，天顺股份、长江投资、畅联股份、三羊马等个股跟涨。消息面上，央行等八部门发布《关于金 融支持加快西部陆海新通道建设的意见》，提出构建高质量资金融通体系，服务大通道、大物流、大 产业、大平台、大市场建设。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数涨跌不一 12个月，12个我，陪你轻松一整年～ 2026，不一定每天都是晴天 但希望每月翻到新一页的你 都能看到一份不一样的祝福 和一个始终在你这边、陪你向前走的阿驴 沪指低开0.08%，深成指低开0.10%，创业板指高开0.11%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | In W | ...

海外业务预计增长 25%-30%，主要市场集中于中东和东南亚，其中东 南亚是最大市场，公司正积极开拓新加坡、菲律宾和沙特等市场。 Q&A 苏博特公司 2024 年四季度的收入增速很快，2025 年四季度的情况如何？ 苏博特 20151223 摘要 基建工程领域对功能性材料需求稳健，速凝剂、抗裂剂和水泥基材料等 产品前三季度实现约 20%的增长，预计四季度增速与三季度持平，受益 于基建的正向增长。 三季度毛利率因房地产市场影响销量下降，固定成本摊薄减少及民用客 户利润紧张而有所下降。若价格和成本端保持稳定且回款改善，未来毛 利率有望回升。 全年经营性现金流预计为正，且可能略优于去年，主要受益于央国企资 金流的改善。但最终结果仍取决于年底回款情况。 信用减值情况预计优于去年，因应收账款累积高峰已过，且大型基建工 程占比上升，此类客户回款情况较好，后续订单和资金状况有望持续改 善。 房地产需求展望不乐观，新开工数量和新拿地数量等前瞻性指标仍呈两 位数下滑，若无新政策推动，明年地产状况仍具不确定性。 明年基建投资整体未见明显提升，但滇藏铁路等重大西部项目将带来显 著增量，公司凭借市场份额和竞争优势，仍能获得良好增长机 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the next major economic opportunity will be driven by AI, contrasting it with the previous two decades dominated by real estate [11][12] - It highlights the importance of individuals connecting with AI to benefit from this new trend, suggesting that those who can leverage AI will have a significant advantage [12][14] Group 1: Economic Trends - The past two decades saw wealth accumulation linked to real estate, with various sectors benefiting from this trend [9] - The article posits that AI will surpass real estate in terms of economic impact over the next twenty years, marking a significant shift in wealth generation [11] - The disparity between individuals will increasingly depend on their ability to engage with AI, either by using it or investing in it [12][18] Group 2: AI Utilization - Companies that effectively integrate AI into their operations can achieve unprecedented efficiency, as demonstrated by the practices of Supertrends, which utilizes AI to analyze vast amounts of data [15][17] - The article suggests that the ability to use AI will determine job security and future prospects for individuals, making it essential for professionals to adopt AI tools in their work [20] - Ordinary individuals are encouraged to find ways to incorporate AI into their roles to enhance productivity and outcomes [20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the potential for small teams to create billion-dollar companies by leveraging AI, which democratizes access to capabilities previously reserved for larger firms [24][26] - It emphasizes that the efficiency gains from using AI can lead to significant shifts in industry dynamics, making it a critical area for investment and innovation [26] - The author recommends reading works by thought leaders like Lars to understand the structural changes in the economy driven by AI [22]