| 沪深300指数由沪深市场中规 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自2005年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 模大、流动性好的300只股票 | 沪深300指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估值分位 | | 组成,完整覆盖11个中证一级 行业 | 0. 1% | 14. 3倍 | 67. 3% | | 中证A500指数由各行业市值较 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自2004年 | | 大、流动性较好的500只证券 | 中证A500指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 以来估值分位 | | 组成,覆盖93个三级行业中的 | | | | | 89个 | 0. 4% | 17.3倍 | 76. 4% | | 创业板大盘宽基: 创业板ETF易方达 邸费率 | | | 159915 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪创业板指数 | | | | | 该指数由创业板中市值大、 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自2010年 | | 流动性好的100只股票组成, | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估值分位 | | 战略新兴产业占比较高，电 ...

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金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 31 日 期指：利多政策落地，2025 或偏强收官 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4651.3 | ↑0.26 | | 4571.9 | | | | | | IF2601 | 4643.6 | ↑0.28 | -7.68 | 383.2 | 27521 | ↑1202 | 59731 | ↑57 | | IF2602 | 4630 | ↑0.30 | -21.28 | 36 | 2596 | ↓278 | 5071 | ↑706 | | IF2603 | 4622.2 | ↑0.36 | -29.08 | 786.5 | 56756 | ↓1696 | 171595 | ↑4446 | | IF2606 | 4578 | ↑0.36 | -73.28 | ...

记者丨金珊 李益文 编辑丨谢珍 设计丨郑嘉琪 12月30日，沪指早盘一度震荡翻红，创业板指冲高回落，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.23%，创业板指跌0.06%。全市场半日成交 额1.3万亿，较上个交易日缩量943亿，超2700只个股下跌。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 科创综指 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 3961.21 | 13568.09 1637.81 | | | -4.07 -0.10% +30.99 +0.23% -0.27 -0.02% | | | | 创业板指 | 北证50 | 万得全A | | 6420.57 | 3220.56 1446.55 | | | +7.56 +0.12% | -2.05 -0.06% -9.90 -0.68% | | | 中证500 中证500 中证A500 | | 沪深300 | | | 7455.58 5648.27 | 4638.90 | | -0.47 -0.01% +24.97 +0.34% +7.51 +0.13% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 中证红利 | | | 7611.03 | 5853.32 - ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.12% to 3945.53, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27% to 13449.75 [2] - The real estate, digital currency, and Hainan Free Trade Zone sectors performed well, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and lithium battery concepts saw declines [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Wanxiang Qianchao (000559) experienced a sharp increase, hitting the daily limit, while Shengtong Energy (001331) achieved a 10-day consecutive limit-up [1][3] - Shengtong Energy's stock price has significantly deviated from its fundamentals, and the company warned of potential rapid declines in the future if the stock continues to rise [3] - The multi-financial sector showed strength with stocks like Luxin Venture Capital (600783) and Huajin Capital (000532) also rising [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The humanoid robot concept saw a surge, with multiple companies like Tianqi Co. (002009) and Zhejiang Rongtai (603119) also hitting their daily limits [9] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Shenjian Co. (002361) achieving six consecutive limit-ups [6] - Retail sector activity remains robust, with companies like Yimin Group (600824) and Anji Food (603696) reaching their daily limits, driven by government initiatives to boost consumer spending during the holiday season [9]

Market Overview - A-shares showed significant divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.17% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,770 billion, a decrease of 1,575 billion from the previous day [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector experienced a collective rebound, with major banks like Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 3%, and others like Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank increasing by more than 2% [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set a favorable environment for banks to expand their balance sheets and provide long-term loans, while emphasizing the need to manage local and real estate risks [2] - According to CICC, listed banks are expected to see improved revenue and profit growth rates in 2026 and 2027 due to reduced net interest margin pressure and stable growth in fee income [2] - The average dividend yield for the banking sector is currently at 5.2%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, indicating a shift towards a "high dividend + high quality" investment cycle [2] AI Healthcare Sector - The AI healthcare sector saw strong gains, with stocks like Jiahe Meikang and Huaren Health hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, and others like Weining Health rising over 11% [3] - The Ant Group's AI health application "Antifufu" has seen a surge in downloads, reaching over 15 million monthly active users, indicating strong market interest [3] - The AI healthcare market in China has grown from 2 billion in 2019 to 6.4 billion in 2023, with projections to reach 224.4 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 43.1% [4] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a surge, with companies like Xingchen Technology and Xice Testing hitting their daily limit, and others like Shunhao Co. and Tianjian Technology also seeing significant gains [5] - Xingchen Technology has reported successful delivery of products for commercial space applications, with plans for mass production starting in 2026 to meet increasing demand from private aerospace companies [6] - Recent policies and technological advancements are expected to accelerate the development of the commercial aerospace industry, with the National Space Administration promoting high-quality and safe development [7]

★ 宏观动态 ★ 在今天（18日）下午召开的商务部例行新闻发布会上，新闻发言人何亚东针对稀土相关物项出口管制的最新进 展进行回应。商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，对稀土相关物项实施出口管制以来，中方主管部门向中国出口商 进行了政策宣介，随着相关出口和合规经验的积累，部分中国出口商已初步达到申请通用许可的基本要求。据 我所知，目前已收到并批准了部分中国出口商提交的通用许可申请。 韩国计划孵化万家AI等硬科技初创企业 据新华社，韩国政府计划今后五年内在人工智能(AI)等硬科技领域孵化1万家初创企业，推动这些企业成长为 韩国经济发展的重要力量。韩联社报道说，韩国中小风险企业部12月18日会同有关部门发布"迈向全球四大创 投强国综合对策"并提出多个目标，包括孵化1万家AI等硬科技领域初创企业、打造50家独角兽和"十角兽"企 业、推动企业对接年规模约40万亿韩元（约合1904亿元人民币）的全球风险投资市场。 ★ 金融机构 ★ 中金公司：2025年半年度共计派发现金红利4.34亿元 国务院办公厅印发《关于全链条打击涉烟违法活动的意见》 国务院办公厅日前印发《关于全链条打击涉烟违法活动的意见》，提出一系列针对性政策举措，解决烟 ...

Group 1: Platinum Jewelry Prices - The price of platinum jewelry has surpassed 800 yuan per gram, with the price reaching 815 yuan for foot platinum 999 on December 18 [1] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, the price of platinum jewelry has increased to around 470 yuan per gram, up from approximately 300 yuan in June [1] - On the domestic futures market, platinum futures saw a significant increase, with a closing price rise of 5.32% on December 18 [1] Group 2: Chinese Technology ETFs - The KraneShares China Internet ETF (KWEB) has attracted $2.3 billion in inflows this year, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2021 [1] - The Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) has also seen $2.1 billion in inflows, aiming for its best annual performance in history [1] Group 3: HBM3e and DDR5 Pricing Trends - The price of conventional DRAM has surged due to supply shortages, while HBM3e prices are also rising due to increased orders from GPUs and ASICs [1] - It is expected that the average selling price (ASP) gap between HBM3e and DDR5 will narrow significantly over the next year [1] Group 4: UK Home Security Market Growth - The number of households in the UK using professional home security monitoring services is projected to grow by 31% by 2025, reaching 542,600 households [2] - This growth indicates a significant market shift as consumers increasingly adopt smart technology for home security [2] Group 5: Chinese Photovoltaic Exports - China's photovoltaic product exports saw a total of $24.42 billion from January to October 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 13.2%, a significant improvement from the 34.5% decline in the same period of 2024 [2] - The stabilization of export prices reflects the effectiveness of industry self-regulation [2] Group 6: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially began operations on December 18, with international flight bookings to Haikou for the Spring Festival expected to double year-on-year [2] - Flight bookings for the New Year period also saw significant increases, with a 19% rise for Haikou and a 51% rise for Sanya [2] Group 7: Chow Tai Fook Price Increase - Chow Tai Fook announced a price increase for some products effective December 19, with most products seeing price hikes between 4% and 16% [3] - For example, a gold bracelet weighing approximately 32.35 grams increased in price from 56,800 yuan to 65,800 yuan, reflecting a 15.8% increase [3] Group 8: AI Framework for Disease Treatment - A research team from Jilin University has developed an AI framework called SpatialEx, which integrates spatial multi-omics data to aid in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases like breast cancer and Parkinson's [3] Group 9: MiniMax IPO Plans - MiniMax, a domestic AI model company, has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and plans to list in January 2026, potentially becoming the fastest AI company to IPO globally [6] - The company has served over 210 million users across more than 200 countries and regions [6] Group 10: Corporate Leadership Changes - The CEO of Master Kong, Chen Yingrang, will retire, with Wei Hongcheng appointed as the new CEO effective January 1, 2026 [5] - Wang Weidong has resigned as general manager of Songyang Resources, with Cai Jiantao taking over the position [6]

具体来看，沪指盘中维持窄幅震荡上扬态势，创业板指、科创50指数大幅下挫。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.16%报3876.37点，深证成指跌1.29%，创业板指跌2.17%，沪深北三市合计成交16770亿元，较此前一 日减少1575亿元。 全A超2800股飘红，银行、保险板块拉升，建设银行、工商银行、农业银行等涨超2%；AI医疗概念崛 起，嘉和美康、华人健康等涨停；商业航天概念再度爆发，西测测试涨超12%，盘中续创新高；顺灏股 份（002565）15日斩获8板；IP经济概念拉升，德艺文创、博纳影业等涨停；零售概念热度不减，百大 集团斩获6连板。此外，今日登陆深市主板的元创股份收盘涨171.6%报67.23元/股，盘中一度大涨 219.2%最高攀升至79元/股，以盘中最高价计算，该股单签最高盈利达2.7万元。 银行板块上扬 银行板块盘中发力上扬，截至收盘，上海银行、渝农商行涨超3%，宁波银行、建设银行、工商银行、 农业银行等均涨逾2%。 12月18日，A股主要股指走势现明显分化，沪指小幅走高，创业板指大幅回落；港股方面，恒生指数尾 盘翻红。 商业航天概念活跃 中金指出，作为金融基础设施，银行已进入高质量发展阶段，过去一两 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed significant divergence on the 18th, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.16% to 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.17% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets was 16,770 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,575 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw a notable rise, with Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank increasing by over 3%, while major banks like Ningbo Bank, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China rose by more than 2% [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized fiscal and investment support, creating a favorable environment for banks to expand their balance sheets and provide medium to long-term loans [2] - Analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that banks have entered a high-quality development phase, with some listed banks experiencing double-digit profit growth year-on-year [2] AI Healthcare Sector - The AI healthcare concept saw strong gains, with stocks like Jiahe Meikang and Huaren Health hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, while Weining Health rose over 11% [3][4] - The rapid growth of the "Ant Health" app, which surpassed 15 million monthly active users, indicates a significant market interest in AI healthcare solutions [5] - The AI healthcare market in China is projected to grow from 2 billion yuan in 2019 to 6.4 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 43.1% from 2023 to 2033 [5] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace concept became active again, with Xice Testing rising over 12% and several other companies like Shunhao Co., Tianjian Technology, and Western Materials hitting the daily limit [6][7] - Analysts from CITIC Securities highlighted that the commercial aerospace industry is entering a new era supported by national policies and technological breakthroughs [9] - The industry encompasses various segments, including remote sensing applications, satellite control systems, and space computing, indicating a broad scope for investment opportunities [9]