丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——5 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月，社会消费品零售总额同比增速回升至 6.4%，工业增加值、固定资产投资总额同比增速较 上月回落，从生产法 GDP 估算来看，二季度 GDP 同比增速或维持在 5%以上。但在强劲的量 增之外， PPI 和房价等指标有转弱迹象，价格端的压力正在逐渐显现。在需求端，出口和生产 强度偏弱、消费高增长内含透支风险、基建同比增速持续走弱，均体现出增长转弱初现端倪。 总的来看，当前经济缺乏自主转向上行周期的动力，最终增长仍需政策承托，政策和增长的互 动节奏将决定市场的风险偏好。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] ——5 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Title] 如果 Q2 GDP 增长超过 5% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如果 Q2 GDP2] 增长超过 5% 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 ...

Group 1 - Brazilian economists predict a GDP growth rate of 2.20% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.18% [1] - The inflation rate for 2025 is forecasted to be 5.25%, down from the earlier prediction of 5.44% [1]

渣打银行大中华及北亚区首席经济师丁爽：5月中国消费数据亮点鲜明，同时，海外不确定性背景下， 外贸也抗出了一定压力。预计上半年GDP增长将超过5%。 （一财） ...

欧洲央行管委兼德国央行行长Nagel：持续低于预期的情况不太可能发生。 德国今年GDP"很有可能"小幅增长。 关注中东局势对价格稳定的风险。 数据和预测显示欧洲央行的任务已完成。 欧洲央行保持灵活性是明智之举。 ...

增长预期的上调背后，是美国经济展现的三重抗压特质：1. 就业市场缓冲垫增厚：美国续请失业金人数虽升至一百九十五万，但新增非农就业仍保持正增长 2. 企业资本开支回暖：美国制造业PMI新订单指数连续三个月扩张3. 消费韧性持续：美国零售销售环比增速维持在百分之零点四的扩张区间 这些基本面因 素共同构成高盛修正预判的基石。报告特别指出，美国地产市场的复苏成为意外亮点——三十年期房贷利率回落刺激购房需求，新屋开工率环比增长百分之 五点七，创年内最高增幅。 尽管短期压力缓解，但美国物价上行风险并未消除。报告警告："随着新关税政策逐步落地，未来数月CPI可能重拾升势。"这种 担忧源于两个传导链条： 这份报告的核心逻辑指向一个关键变化——关税政策不确定性的显著缓解。自今年四月"对等关税"政策公布引发全球市场大幅波动后，近期中美两大经济体 间的协商进展为金融市场注入稳定剂。 高盛分析师在报告中指出："广泛的金融环境已恢复至关税公布前水平，贸易政策不确定性指标呈现回落趋势。"这 一判断得到市场数据支撑——衡量市场恐慌情绪的VIX指数较四月高点回落百分之十八，美元融资成本同步下降至三个月低位。 尤为值得注意的是，最新 通胀数据 ...

新西兰联储Nowcast模型预测新西兰一季度GDP增长0.63%。 ...

新西兰联储：最新预测显示一季度GDP增长为0.63%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia and Thailand, are implementing large-scale economic stimulus plans to mitigate the impact of high U.S. tariffs on their economies [1][2]. Group 1: Indonesia's Economic Stimulus - Indonesia has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period [2]. - The Indonesian economy is facing challenges, with a GDP growth of only 4.87% year-on-year in the first quarter, the weakest since Q3 2021 [2]. - The Indonesian government expects the economic growth rate to stabilize around 5% in the second quarter, supported by fiscal measures [2]. Group 2: Thailand's Economic Response - Thailand's government has approved an economic stimulus plan with a budget of 157 billion Thai baht, focusing on community economy, tourism, agriculture, infrastructure, and low-interest loans for small businesses [3]. - The Thai economy is also under pressure from weak domestic demand and high household debt, alongside external challenges such as ongoing trade wars [3]. Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - The region is experiencing a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Thailand's growth forecast lowered from 3%-3.5% to 1.8% by the World Bank and IMF [4]. - Malaysia's central bank has indicated that economic growth may fall below the previously predicted range of 4.5%-5.5% due to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [4]. - The Philippines reported a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, below the government's target of 6%-8% [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Southeast Asia are responding to economic pressures, with the Philippines expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points due to reduced inflation and uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [5]. - Malaysia is also anticipated to cut interest rates for the first time since May 2023, while providing additional loan guarantees for SMEs affected by U.S. tariffs [5]. - Vietnam is considering extending a VAT reduction measure to support economic growth, which may lead to significant tax revenue losses in the coming years [5]. Group 5: Concerns Over Stimulus Measures - Experts express concerns that excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus could have adverse effects, such as widening the income gap and increasing household debt levels [6][7]. - In Thailand, the cancellation of a digital wallet plan has led to public disappointment, highlighting the potential political ramifications of economic policy changes [7]. - Vietnam's extension of VAT reductions raises concerns about future tax revenue losses, with projected losses of approximately 39.5 trillion Vietnamese dong in the second half of 2025 and 82.2 trillion in 2026 [7].

智通财经6月12日电，英国2-4月GDP环比增长0.7%。 ...

英国国家统计局：英国4月经济出现收缩，服务业和制造业出现下跌。然而，三个月GDP仍然录得增 长，有迹象显示，一些经济活动从四月提前至年初启动。 ...