近期，各地金融管理部门围绕地方经济与产业特点出台针对性举措，金融机构依托自身资源禀赋强化服 务能力，共同落实落细稳经济各项存量与增量政策。民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬认为，后 续货币政策的重心在于抓好落实，积极推动前期推出的一揽子金融政策以及近期各项稳增长增量政策落 地显效，并对前期政策的传导情况和实际效果保持密切跟踪，增强灵活性。总体看，下半年为稳信用、 促内需、强协同、保持政策连续性稳定性，货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show a large - range oscillation, with a bullish trend in July. The near - term bullish sentiment is based on the short - squeeze behavior induced by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the major negative factor of Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900 [5][12]. - The overall downstream aluminum processing industry is in a strong off - season atmosphere. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to decline slightly on a week - on - week basis [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The basis for the near - term bullish view is the short - squeeze behavior caused by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider increasing inventory allocation around 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract in the coming week was expected to be between 20,200 and 20,800 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Supply - side**: The shortage of domestic bauxite supply is difficult to break, and there is an expectation of further tightening. The supply of alumina has decreased but is expected to recover by the end of the month, with a gradual small surplus. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but the ingot output has declined due to some aluminum plants increasing the proportion of aluminum water. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rates of various downstream aluminum products such as profiles, plates, foils, cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees, with weak demand. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is at a low level since 2017, with a decline of about 3% compared to last week and about 41% compared to the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 5% compared to last week and is at a relatively low level in the range since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,640 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, during the policy window period, market expectations are generally positive, providing stable support for commodities. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to oscillate at a high level next week, with the mainstream range likely to be between 20,400 and 20,800 yuan [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industrial links have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Henan's first - grade alumina has decreased by 3.35% week - on - week, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased by 0.96% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventories of various products such as bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rods have changed. For example, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 0.95% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2.92% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply - demand Situation - The overall downstream aluminum processing is in the off - season, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [25]. 3.7 Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains relatively strong [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,490 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,700 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [36][37]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has slightly rebounded in the past 6 weeks. In the latest period, the long - position camp has remained stable while the short - position camp has reduced positions. The market may mainly show a relatively strong oscillatory performance in the near term [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has remained stable this week. Both the long and short camps have significantly increased positions for two consecutive weeks, and market divergence is increasing. The net long position of financial - speculation - based funds has continued to increase slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may be stable with a slightly upward trend next week [41].

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's total export value reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Exports to the United States saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 30.7%, worsening by 11.5 percentage points compared to April[7] - High-tech products, including integrated circuits and automobiles, showed notable growth, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 33.4% year-on-year[19] Import Performance - In May 2025, China's total import value was $212.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[20] - Imports from the United States decreased by 18.13%, while imports from the European Union saw a marginal decline of 0.05%[20] - The demand for traditional bulk commodities continued to decline, with iron ore and crude oil imports showing negative growth rates of -5.2% and 0.3%, respectively[21] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.2 billion, indicating a decrease from the previous month's surplus of $106.8 billion[7] - The overall trade volume in May 2025 was $528.98 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[7] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to remain complex, with potential risks and opportunities for trade growth in 2025[23] - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth may support a gradual recovery in import growth, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market[23]

Core Viewpoint - In April, China's commodity price index stood at 109.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 3.1%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies exacerbating global economic downturn concerns and the transmission effects of falling international commodity prices [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Index Performance - China's commodity price index experienced a smaller month-on-month decline compared to Western countries, with the CRB index down by 6.6% and the S&P GSCI index down by 8.8%, indicating the resilience and advantages of China's commodity market in withstanding external shocks [1] - As of April 30, most commodity prices and indices rebounded from their monthly lows, driven by the positive sentiment from the Central Political Bureau meeting, suggesting a stable overall market expectation among enterprises [1] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The foundation for a continued stable and positive operation of China's commodity market is supported by the accelerated rollout of national economic stabilization policies and the steady release of domestic demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite short-term global uncertainties, China's economy is progressing steadily and orderly, supported by the release of various economic stabilization policies [1] Economic Indicators - In April, the construction business activity index was 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still within the expansion range [1] - The civil engineering construction business activity index rose to 60.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating accelerated construction progress of engineering projects across various regions [1] Sector Performance - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector started the second quarter steadily, with positive performances in investment, consumption, and new momentum-related activities [1] - The foundation for continued stable and positive operation of investment and consumption-related activities is being established as the benefits of economic stabilization policies are released [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The demand side shows that the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.56%, a 0.28 percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.70 percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons from the previous week but an increase of 13.90 tons from the same period last year [2]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil last week was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [2]. - Overall, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. With stable downstream steel purchases supporting steel mill operations and high - level hot metal production on the demand side, and the State Council deploying a package of measures to stabilize the economy, enhancing the expectation of policy easing, it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3076 | - 55 | - 1.76 | 7376676 | 3023524 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3181 | - 61 | - 1.88 | 2551563 | 1360193 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 699.0 | - 9.0 | - 1.27 | 1978390 | 566874 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 952.5 | 60.0 | 6.72 | 2128415 | 501104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1552.5 | 30.5 | 2.00 | 126152 | 47129 | Yuan/ton | [3] Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted last week. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 614 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 141 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 54.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.50 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 tons but a year - on - year increase of 13.90 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.763 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The global iron ore shipment volume this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [6]. Industry News - On April 13, the People's Bank of China announced the financial data for March. At the end of March 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, the same as the previous month. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. In terms of social financing, at the end of March 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year; the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.5% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the whole of last year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points faster; and fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point faster [10]. - According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Among them, exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%; imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [10]. - Rio Tinto reported that in the first quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of its Pilbara operations was 69.8 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The iron ore shipment volume of its Pilbara operations in the first quarter was 70.7 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - Vale reported that in the first quarter of 2025, its total iron ore production was 67.664 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%; the total iron ore sales volume was 66.141 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 18.5% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipment volume of iron ore, steel products, etc., including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production and inventory, and iron ore shipment and arrival volume [8][11][14].