9月份，消费市场运行总体平稳，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，市 场竞争秩序持续优化，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平；同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收 窄0.6个百分点。 央视网消息：国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年9月份CPI和PPI数据。 CPI同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。本月CPI-0.3% 的同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.8个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.5个百分点。分类别看，食品 和能源价格下降。其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个 百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。食品中，猪肉、鲜菜、鸡蛋和鲜果价格分别下降17.0%、 13.7%、13.5%和4.2%，合计影响CPI同比下降约0.78个百分点；牛肉和羊肉价格分别上涨4.6%和0.8%， 其中羊肉价格为连续下降44个月后首次转涨。能源价格下降2.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.2 ...

2025年9月份核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大 PPI同比降幅继续收窄 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年9月份CPI和PPI数据 CPI同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。本月CPI-0.3% 的同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.8个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.5个百分点。分类别看，食品 和能源价格下降。其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个 百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。食品中，猪肉、鲜菜、鸡蛋和鲜果价格分别下降17.0%、 13.7%、13.5%和4.2%，合计影响CPI同比下降约0.78个百分点；牛肉和羊肉价格分别上涨4.6%和0.8%， 其中羊肉价格为连续下降44个月后首次转涨。能源价格下降2.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.20个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到 1%。其中，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨1.8%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大。工业消费品中，金饰品和 铂金饰品价格分别上涨42.1%和33.6%，家 ...

中国9月PPI同比 -2.3%，前值 -2.9%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

中国9月CPI年率-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%。CPI月率+0.1%，预期0.2%，前值0.0%。PPI年率-2.3%，预期-2.3%，前值-2.9%。PPI月率0.0%，前值0.0%。 https://t.co/zjhI3Dj5M4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation indicate a serious concern about rising prices, with a specific focus on maintaining the 2% inflation target, which has been a long-standing policy goal since 2012 [3][5][9] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, peaked at over 5% in 2023 but has since decreased to 3.9% as of August [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.7% in September 2023, yet essential items like food, housing, and healthcare continue to rise [5] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Public expectations for inflation remain high, with a survey indicating a 3.6% expectation for the next year, suggesting a lack of confidence in returning to the 2% target [5] - Market reactions to Federal Reserve signals have shown volatility, with the probability of interest rate hikes increasing from 15% to over 30% in early October [7] Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level in 22 years, which increases borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [7] - The total credit card debt in the U.S. surpassed $1 trillion in Q2 2023, indicating significant financial pressure on consumers [7] Economic Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between managing rising debt levels among consumers and businesses and controlling inflation, which remains stubbornly high [9] - The potential for further interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction could tighten market liquidity, impacting economic growth [11] External Factors - Ongoing trade issues, particularly between the U.S. and China, and rising international oil prices are contributing to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [5][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decline in pork prices continues, but the core CPI is expected to maintain its growth, leading to a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline in CPI for September [2][3] - Predictions for September's CPI year-on-year growth from various institutions range from -0.3% to -0.1%, indicating a consensus that the decline may be less severe than in August, which saw a 0.4% drop [2] - The wholesale price of pork is expected to continue weakening, with a year-on-year decline widening from 25.0% to 26.3% due to oversupply in the market [2] Group 2 - The decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to narrow in September, influenced by a reduction in the drag from base effects [3] - Predictions for September's PPI year-on-year growth from various institutions range from -2.5% to -2.3%, reflecting expectations of a slight recovery [3] - The base effect from the previous year is expected to contribute to a narrowing of the PPI decline, with the drag from the base effect decreasing to -0.1% in September [3] Group 3 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September indicates a slight decline in the main raw material purchasing price index and the factory price index compared to August, suggesting a potential further weakening of PPI [4] - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 14.7% to 7.3% in September, influenced by OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Domestic commodity prices are experiencing mixed performance, with coal prices rebounding due to local production checks, while rebar prices are declining due to weak demand and inventory pressures [4]

每经AI快讯，10月14日，德国9月CPI终值环比增长0.2%，预估为增长0.2%，前值为增长0.2%。 ...

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]

Market Overview - The market is opening higher, potentially due to relief after a significant selloff in the S&P and NASDAQ [1] - The U S government shutdown continues with no apparent progress towards resolution [2][4] Economic Indicators & Events - The week will bring Federal Reserve (Fed) communications and bank earnings reports [3] - Key bank earnings reports from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, City (Citigroup), and Goldman Sachs are expected [3] - A CPI (Consumer Price Index) report is scheduled for release this week [5] Geopolitical & Policy - President Trump announced a historic peace deal in Jerusalem involving the return of 20 hostages [2] - President Trump had a meeting with the Knesset [4] - JP Morgan has a $1.5 trillion initiative [4] - There are concerns about the lack of urgency regarding the government shutdown, especially concerning military pay, with an October 15th deadline mentioned [5] Company News - A new CEO has been appointed at NASDAQ [1] - Exelon is celebrating its 25th anniversary [1]

I'm a little bit more concerned about the direction of inflation to be honest with you than I am employment. The Fed's got a much more difficult degree of landing because believe it or not, the Fed gets a weekly update of the ADP estimate. Most people don't understand that.So, the Fed's not flying blind when it comes to the labor market, right. Inflation's a little bit more difficult. They're probably going to be talking to the MIT Harvard billion uh prices project.and to get an idea of what's going on. The ...