Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The demand outlook for rebar and hot-rolled coils is weakening, and they are expected to fluctuate at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 2,981 yuan/ton and 3,095 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) and -2 yuan/ton (-0.06%). The trading volumes were 1,433,362 lots and 512,180 lots, and the open interests were 2,196,722 lots and 1,585,218 lots, with changes of -19,727 lots and +2,740 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Beijing remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin remained stable, and the price in Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet remained at 2,900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. The spreads RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, and HC2601 - RB2601 all decreased, while the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to -3 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Economic Data**: In May, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. The national consumer price decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The average national consumer price from January to May decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Steel Trade Data**: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 million tons of steel, a 1.1% increase from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4846.9 million tons, an 8.9% increase year - on - year. In May, China imported 48.1 million tons of steel, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 255.3 million tons, a 16.1% decrease year - on - year [3]. - **Steel Production Data**: In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2300 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 209.1 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month), 2104 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 191.3 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month), and 2394 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 217.7 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output month - on - month) [3]. - **Weekly Data**: According to the weekly data on June 5, rebar production decreased by 7.05 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.83 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.79 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.65 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.01 million tons, and the total apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.62 million tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4].

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook with May CPI slightly above consensus expectations while PPI fell short, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures primarily driven by energy prices [3][8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in high-end equipment manufacturing prices, contrasting with the weakness in energy and raw material prices [3][11] Economic Overview - In May, the CPI experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, primarily due to a 6.1% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.47 percentage points of the CPI decline [9][10] - The core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%, indicating resilience in the service sector despite overall weak domestic demand [8][9] - The PPI saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%, reflecting international input factors and domestic price declines [10][11] Market Performance - The report lists key stocks to watch, including SF Holding (顺丰控股), Anji Technology (安集科技), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [2] - The performance of various industry indices shows pharmaceuticals leading with a 2.30% increase, while food and beverage sectors experienced a decline of 0.43% [5] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the recovery in certain sectors, particularly high-end manufacturing, which is seeing price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [11] - The food and beverage sector's performance is noted as weaker, with a decline in prices, contrasting with the resilience observed in the pharmaceutical sector [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 173.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, there were no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - Following a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation that boosted confidence, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, leading to a more relaxed interbank funding environment, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.29% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4100%, 2Y at 1.4250%, 3Y at 1.4350%, 5Y at 1.4976%, 7Y at 1.5865%, and 10Y at 1.6550% [8] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also show slight variations, with some yields decreasing [8] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while PPI fell by 3.3%, worse than the expected drop of 3.2% [12] Group 6: International Economic Dialogue - During a visit to the UK, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed economic and financial cooperation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, emphasizing the need for mutual efforts to implement agreements and deepen economic relations [14]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, a rise of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, although some sectors showed marginal price improvements [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decline, while food prices fell by 0.2%, less than the seasonal average decline of 1.1% [1][2] Group 2 - In May, the year-on-year decline in energy prices was 6.1%, which was the main factor affecting the CPI, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall decline [2] - The core CPI's increase of 0.6% year-on-year was supported by rising prices in various categories, including gold jewelry (up 40.1%), household textiles (up 1.9%), and durable goods for entertainment (up 1.8%) [2] - The PPI's decline was influenced by international factors, particularly the decrease in international crude oil prices, which affected domestic oil-related industries, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the PPI decline [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] - Core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating resilience in domestic consumption [2][3] - Prices of gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable entertainment goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively, while fuel and new energy vehicle prices fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, showing a narrowing decline [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][3] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to weak commodity prices and significant input price pressures, particularly in the coal, steel, and cement sectors due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][4] - Some sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, saw price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.6% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for domestic prices suggests a likely moderate recovery in CPI, with food prices expected to remain stable and energy prices potentially rebounding [4] - PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, but it may take time to exit negative territory, influenced by external trade dynamics and domestic demand recovery [4] - Key areas to monitor include ongoing input price pressures, recovery in domestic demand, particularly in real estate, and trends in core consumption [4]

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in London, attended by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council [1] - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified companies to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions aimed at further ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent and difficult issues faced by the public [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the activities of Chinese naval vessels in relevant waters fully comply with international law and conventions [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in goods trade imports and exports in the first five months of this year, with trade with the U.S. decreasing by 8.1% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] International News - Japan's chief negotiator Akira Amari plans to visit the U.S. this week regarding tariffs [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the U.S. proposal concerning the Iran nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[4] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past five and ten years[6] - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month decline of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.7%[4] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, indicating continued weak performance[26] - Production material prices were under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, affecting the overall industrial producer price level by about 2.98 percentage points[30] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service prices showed stronger recovery compared to consumer goods, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods continued to decline[9] - Transportation and communication prices experienced significant month-on-month declines, with transportation fuel prices dropping by 3.7%[11] - Core CPI, excluding energy, saw an increase, indicating a recovery in non-energy consumer goods and services driven by policy support and holiday effects[25]

Inflation Data Summary - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative year-on-year CPI[7] - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point expansion in the growth rate[10] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, while non-food prices remained stable at 0.0%[10] PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points[7] - The decline in production material PPI was 4%, with mining, raw materials, and processing prices dropping by 11.9%, 5.4%, and 2.8% respectively[10] - The PPI for living materials saw a smaller decline of 1.4% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[10] Key Influences - Major contributors to the CPI decline included a 12.9% drop in transportation fuel prices and a significant decrease in fresh vegetable prices, which fell by 8.3% year-on-year[10] - The PPI was primarily pressured by international input factors, weak domestic demand, and excess capacity in certain industries[10] - The outlook for PPI remains cautious, with potential further pressure expected due to weakening export effects[10] Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the need for policies to boost consumer demand, as the recovery in resident consumption is crucial for CPI stabilization[10] - Strengthening social security and increasing residents' income are highlighted as key measures to enhance consumption[10] - The report warns of risks including slower-than-expected consumption recovery, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[31]

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