热门板块 华泰证券指出，考虑到市场仍处于政策和业绩的真空期、各类资金尚未形成合力，短期A股或仍偏震荡，但逆势资 金流入下，A股在12月中旬点位或具备一定支撑。 12月29日，三大指数开盘涨跌不一，截至9：40，沪指涨0.05%，深成指跌0.36%，创指跌0.52%。 盘面上，化学纤维、碳纤维概念领涨两市，脑机接口、军工、半导体等板块涨幅居前；下跌方面，前期热门板块 能源金属、盐湖提锂等大幅调整。 1、碳纤维概念盘初走高 三大预期共同推动了市场跨年行情启动：在机构投资者的一致乐观预期下，明年春季躁动行情有望提前；海外AI 模型调整结束，美国战略重心西迁，海外流动性和风险持续改善；近期十五五产业政策与事件密集发布，投资者 政策预期高涨。跨年行情的行业配置方面，重点关注具有一定景气催化的有色金属和AI算力，市场热点仍然以商 业航天为主，次要热点主线包括海南自贸区、可控核聚变和人形机器人。 2、国盛证券：市场有望节前确认方向 当下，市场震荡调整仍未结束的主要理由如下：1、目前规模指数中只有上证指数、科创50确认日线级别下跌，从 历史统计看，其它规模指数跟随确认日线下跌的概率高；2、上证50、沪深300、中证500、创 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **controlled nuclear fusion industry**, specifically the **magnet segment** which holds a significant value share in the overall investment landscape. The ITER project allocates approximately **30%** of its total investment to magnets, with potential increases to **40%** for high-temperature superconducting (HTS) technologies [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Potential**: 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for investments in controlled nuclear fusion, with capital expenditures expected to expand rapidly from **2025 to 2028**. This will lead to active bidding across the entire industry chain, benefiting companies with secured orders [1][5]. - **Technological Advancements**: Low-temperature superconducting (LTS) technology is currently mature, while HTS is viewed as the future direction, with companies like **West Superconductor** and **Shanghai Superconductor** leading in their respective fields. HTS is expected to reduce device size and costs significantly [1][3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The recent bidding activity has been robust, with a notable **$4 billion** project in November, indicating that market expectations are being met and the industry is progressing steadily [6]. Company-Specific Insights - **West Superconductor**: This company has established a leading position in the LTS sector, maintaining a gross margin above **30%** and benefiting from substantial orders due to the BEST project. Their products have been certified internationally and are crucial for nuclear fusion applications [7][8]. - **Shanghai Superconductor**: Recognized as a global leader in HTS wire production, the company has a production capacity exceeding **1,000 meters** and has secured contracts for significant international fusion projects, achieving a gross margin over **60%**. Plans for further capacity expansion are underway [13][14][15]. Risks and Challenges - The controlled nuclear fusion industry faces uncertainties, including project advancement risks, policy changes, and insufficient funding. Investors are advised to closely monitor these variables as they could significantly impact industry development [2][17]. Additional Noteworthy Content - The transition from first-generation copper oxide to second-generation rare earth metal oxides in HTS materials is noted for its higher critical temperatures and stronger current-carrying capabilities, indicating a promising future for these materials in fusion applications [10][12]. - The competitive landscape includes other companies like **Yongding Co.** and **Lianchuang Optoelectronics**, which are also making strides in HTS and LTS technologies, respectively [16]. This comprehensive overview highlights the significant investment opportunities and technological advancements within the controlled nuclear fusion industry, while also addressing the inherent risks that investors should consider.

Important Market News - The National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 27 to 28, emphasizing the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which includes expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payments, and improving expenditure structure [1] Industry Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking a clear path for these companies to meet specific technical and commercial requirements. This follows the inclusion of commercial aerospace in the fifth set of standards under the "1+6" reform in June. Several companies, including Blue Arrow Aerospace and Star River Power, have completed IPO counseling [2] - The satellite communication industry is projected to exceed 200 billion to 400 billion by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate between 10% and 28%. The industry is at a critical turning point from "concept verification" to "scale application," driven by technological maturity and cost reduction [2] - The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project has completed the manufacturing of correction field coils, marking a significant milestone in the project. This project aims to develop controlled nuclear fusion as a clean and sustainable energy source [3] - Controlled nuclear fusion is seen as the ultimate energy solution, capable of providing green energy with minimal carbon emissions. It is expected to drive human civilization into a new developmental stage [4] - Sichuan Province is actively promoting the hydrogen energy industry, focusing on policy improvement, industrial chain strengthening, and key technology breakthroughs. The province aims to create typical application scenarios and reduce costs to accelerate high-quality development in the hydrogen sector [5] - The hydrogen energy industry in Sichuan is structured around a full-chain layout, enhancing production capabilities and fostering technological advancements. Companies like Dongfang Electric are leading this initiative [5] - ST Huluwawa announced that it and its chairman are under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations, while operations remain normal [6] - Jiamei Packaging reported no significant changes in its main business operations, despite experiencing stock and convertible bond trading fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share year-end rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the recent eight consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, following the completion of a mid-term adjustment [1] Market Outlook - The optimistic expectations from institutional investors suggest that the spring market rally may start earlier than usual [1] - Improvements in overseas liquidity and risk, alongside the conclusion of adjustments in AI models in the U.S., contribute to a favorable market environment [1] - The release of numerous policies and events related to the 14th Five-Year Plan has heightened investor expectations [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining the primary market focus [1] - Secondary themes include the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1] Specific Sector Insights - The upgrade of NVIDIA's Rubin architecture is expected to boost the entire AI computing power industry chain, benefiting sectors such as optical fibers, liquid-cooled servers, CPOs, and storage chips [1] - Non-ferrous metals continue to maintain a rising trend due to price increases in lithium carbonate, gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1] - The market's thematic focus remains on commercial aerospace, with secondary attention on the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1] Investment Highlights - Key sectors for investment consideration include non-ferrous metals, commercial aerospace, AI, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and the Hainan Free Trade Zone [1]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 汪静 再次涨停，上市28年的老牌上市公司永鼎股份（600105.SH）成为近期市场关注的焦点。 光通信与可控核聚变概念加身，12月26日，永鼎股份股价创下25.88元/股的历史新高，较1月低点累计 上涨503%，最新市值378亿元。 长江商报记者注意到，永鼎股份并非在一夜之间成为市场焦点。经历祖孙三代人的开拓、守业、扩张， 如今，在家族第三代接班人莫思铭的带领下，从电缆到光缆再到产业上游的光芯片、前沿领域的高温超 导，这家公司正经历着从传统制造业到高科技前沿的深刻转型。 从"规模扩张"转向"技术引领"之路并不容易，永鼎股份正面临业绩与财务的双重挑战。 莫思铭依然坚定。永鼎股份的研发投入不放松，2021年至2025年前三季度研发费用累计超过10亿元规 模，加快推进技术的商业化落地。 从开拓到守业 转折发生在1980年。面对农村兴起的建房热潮和建材短缺的市场，顾云奎敏锐地将目光转向电线生产， 他用"拼命三郎"的精神，让作坊式的工厂蜕变为像模像样的"吴江电缆二厂"，此后，又凭借过人的目光 带领企业转向通信电缆，成为国内最早涉足该领域的乡 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations, yet stock private equity institutions remain optimistic about future investments, with an average position of 83.16% as of December 19, indicating a high level of confidence in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning - The average position of domestic stock private equity is at 83.16%, slightly down by 0.43 percentage points from the previous week, but still among the highest levels this year [1][2]. - Large-scale private equity firms (50 to 100 billion) have an average position of 88.61%, reflecting strong confidence among leading investors [2]. - The proportion of private equity firms with positions greater than 80% has slightly decreased to 69.44%, while those with moderate positions have increased to 18.49%, indicating tactical adjustments in response to market volatility [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus - Private equity firms are focusing on two main lines: the resource sector, represented by non-ferrous metals, and the emerging technology industry, particularly related to AI [3][4]. - Recent strategies include increasing allocations to industrial metals like copper and aluminum, as well as rare metals associated with AI computing power [3]. - The investment outlook for 2026 emphasizes the importance of supply constraints and long-term demand narratives, particularly in energy metals and the AI sector [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The competition in the AI industry is shifting towards application ecosystems, necessitating a comprehensive view of the entire industry chain from chips to applications [4]. - Investment strategies are increasingly focused on the commercialization of AI technologies, with hardware value expected to align with domestic production processes [4][5]. - The demand for specific resource products is anticipated to grow alongside the development of AI, highlighting the interconnectedness of technology and resource sectors [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has emphasized increasing efforts in nuclear fusion technology, indicating a strategic shift from basic research to engineering and industrialization [8][10] - Trump Media Technology Group has reached a merger agreement with TAE Technologies, valuing the deal at over $6 billion, with plans to construct the world's first commercial nuclear fusion power plant by mid-2026 [10][11] - The Chengdu quasi-ring symmetric stellarator project has successfully completed its main structure, expected to operate by 2027, filling a significant gap in China's stellarator research [12] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 331.83 billion yuan, with 121 listed companies [4] - The industry has shown a 3.1% absolute performance over the last month and a 5.1% performance over the last six months [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Hezhong Intelligent and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, with a suggestion to pay attention to Guoguang Electric [3][35] - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see significant capital expenditure growth, with an estimated investment of 146.5 billion yuan in major domestic projects over the next 3-5 years [7][30] - The magnet segment holds a high value proportion, with recommendations to focus on Xibu Superconductor, Yongding Co., and Jingda Co. [35][42] Market Trends - Recent bidding activity has shown a total of 5.21 billion yuan in awarded projects, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the nuclear fusion sector [17][21] - The market has experienced significant stock price movements, with top gainers including Zhongtung High-tech and Zhongke Technology, each rising by 18% in the last half of December [30][33]

Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors are continuously increasing their holdings in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, bringing stable incremental capital to the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant net subscription of A500 ETF may be influenced by quarter-end capital inflow, but this factor has a relatively limited impact on the overall funding situation [1] - Following the substantial subscription of A500, financing funds have shown an accelerated net inflow trend [1] - As market learning effects and profit-making effects accumulate, capital may preemptively position for the "spring rally" trend, with incremental funds expected to continue net inflow [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - The continuous appreciation of the offshore RMB is likely to facilitate the gradual return of foreign capital to the Chinese market, further improving the funding situation [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - A "cross-year + spring" market trend is anticipated to continue, with a focus on blue-chip indices represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50 [1] - Key sectors to watch include cyclical price-increasing products, with recent price increases concentrated in non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, new energy supply chains, memory storage, and certain agricultural products [1] - Notable areas of interest include industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation [1] - Recommended investment tracks include computing power, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion [1]

华西策略李立峰团队称，岁末年初多头势力聚集，"春季躁动"行情有望抢跑。一方面，海外货币政策不确定性消退，后续国内春 节与"两会"召开时间较为接近，节前对两会的政策预期有望支撑风险偏好；另一方面，年初通常是保险、年金等绝对收益资金进 行新一轮配置的窗口期，在政策预期向好的背景下，增量资金入场意愿较强，近期国内机构资金、融资资金等已出现"抢跑"迹 象。 本周各家券商策略分析师整体依旧保持乐观。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 芬商/分析师 结论 | 逻辑 | | 关注板块 | | 兴证策略 张启尧 言? | 要反映的是美元再度走弱叠加年末"结汇潮 人民币"破7"后，行业如何配 | | 人民币升值影响行业配置的四个逻辑: 盈利层面,1)人民币升值降低进口成 3）人民币升值提升国内居民购买力， | | | 近期人民币加速升值引发市场关注。背后主 | | | | | | | 本,原材料进口依赖度较高的行业受 | | | | | 益;2)人民币升值驱动外币负债成本 | | | " 带动下,人民币相对其他非美货币的"补 | | 下降,持有较多美元负债的行业受益; | ...