Core Viewpoint - The stability of stablecoins is being questioned by major financial institutions, including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the European Central Bank, due to concerns over their ability to serve as a pillar of the monetary system and their potential use in financial crimes [1][3][6]. Regulatory Concerns - BIS highlights that stablecoins have not met the necessary criteria of singularity, elasticity, and integrity to be considered a foundational element of the monetary system [3][4]. - The anonymity of stablecoins raises concerns about their use in money laundering and terrorist financing, as they lack the "Know Your Customer" (KYC) standards present in traditional finance [4][5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) emphasizes the need for cautious regulation and has expressed a desire to temper public enthusiasm for stablecoins [6][8]. Market Reaction - Following regulatory warnings, stablecoin-related stocks have experienced significant declines, with Circle's stock price dropping from a peak of $299 to $199, reflecting a loss of over 10% in a single day [1][10]. - The market has shifted from a state of exuberance to one of caution, with investors becoming anxious and hesitant to engage [10][11]. Future Outlook - The future role of stablecoins remains uncertain, with potential implications for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and traditional financial systems [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the rapid growth of stablecoins may lead to a reconsideration of the necessity for CBDCs in some countries, as stablecoins closely resemble them but are privately issued [11]. - The relationship between stablecoins and traditional financial markets is evolving, with increased risk correlation noted, particularly as traditional financial institutions begin to allocate investments in stablecoins [11][12].

香港金管局与亚投行携手支持亚洲新兴市场风险投资 智通财经6月26日电，香港金融管理局（金管局）与亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）今日（6月26日） 签署战略合作伙伴协议，共同支持亚洲新兴市场的风险投资，标志着双方深化合作的新里程碑。在伙伴 协议下，金管局与亚投行将紧密合作，投资一系列专注于亚洲新兴市场的风险投资基金。双方旨在携手 支持亚洲新兴经济体通过科技与商业模式的创新，发展绿色及科技赋能基础设施，同时进一步促进香港 的风险投资及创新者生态圈发展。 ...

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...

| CTE HERE | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 短期内,a股市场流动性尚可,加上地缘政治冲突大幅缓解,海外 | | | | | 扰动减弱,股指预计偏强震荡。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债) | | 资产需和弱经济利好债期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 空间。 | | | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但地缘和关税等不确定性 | | | | 農汤 | 仍高企,金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | 白银 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | | | 37 | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论。再出口窗口打开情况下,铜 库存有望进一步下滑，铜价短期震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | 近期国内电解铝库存水平偏低,而下游需求进入淡季,铝价震荡 | | | | 農汤 | 运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续回调,但盘面价格更弱,期货维持贴水,限 | | | 氢化铝 | 黑汤 | 制下方空间。另一方面,冶炼端(现货)利润尚可,产量提升, | | | | ...

文字早评 2025/06/26 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.04%，创指+3.11%，科创 50+1.73%，北证 50+1.38%，上证 50+1.17%，沪深 300+1.44%， 中证 500+1.68%，中证 1000+1.32%，中证 2000+1.00%，万得微盘+0.53%。两市合计成交 16027 亿，较上 一日+1882 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、央行开展 3000 亿元 MLF 操作，6 月中期流动性净投放总额已达 3180 亿元，实现连续四个月超额续作 MLF。 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应效率、加强基础金融服务。 3、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资券商，支持加密货币交 易等业务。 资金面：融资额+51.30 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.371%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+1.30bp 至 2.8746%，十年期国债利率+0.40bp 至 1.6507%，信用利差+0.90bp 至 123bp；美国 10 年期利率-4.00bp 至 4.30% ...

咱平时炒股，大多是用自己账户里的钱买卖股票。但你知道吗，股市里还有融资融券这种玩法，能让咱们"借鸡生蛋"，不过这背后也有不少门道和风险，今 天咱就来唠唠。 先说说融资融券业务是咋运作的。简单来讲，融资融券就是投资者跟证券公司借钱或者借股票来交易。 先说融资。要是你觉得某只股票未来会涨，可自己手里钱不够，这时候就能找证券公司借钱买股票。比如说，你看好一只股票，现在价格是10块钱一股，你 想买1万股，但自己账户里只有5万块，不够买。 这时候你就可以通过融资，从证券公司借5万块，这样你就能凑够10万块把这1万股股票买下来了。等股票价格上涨了，比如涨到12块一股，你把它卖掉，得 到12万。还掉证券公司的5万本金和利息，剩下的就是你赚的。 再讲讲融券。要是你觉得某只股票未来会跌，可自己手里又没有这只股票，这时候就能找证券公司借股票来卖。比如说，你觉得某只股票现在价格虚高，未 来肯定会跌，现在价格是15块一股，你想卖1万股，但自己没有。 这时候你就可以通过融券，从证券公司借1万股股票，然后以15块的价格卖掉，得到15万。等股票价格下跌了，比如跌到10块一股，你再花10万把这1万股股 票买回来，还给证券公司。这中间的差价， ...

做日内交易，别贪图行情延续太多，要认清自身能力。趋势交易虽诱人，但判断趋势难、拿住趋势更难，趋势判断错误还可能面临大幅 亏损，行情不顺时长时间套单更是煎熬。交易如同渡劫，道理易懂，实操却难，毕竟我们都是凡人。要学会接受自己的平凡，量力而 行，多积累、少犯错，保证在市场存活。只要不被淘汰，总能等到看得懂的行情。同时，要远离负能量，避开让你不开心、内心不平静 的人和事，保持专注与冷静，方能在交易路上走得更稳。 美东时间6月23日晚间传来消息，相关地区冲突双方已达成阶段性停火协议，将分阶段落实。若两轮各12小时的停火顺利推进，24小时后 便会正式宣布全面停火。受此影响，市场风险情绪显著降温。美元兑日元汇率反弹，以色列股市创下新高，美股也延续强势，整体风险 偏好回升，黄金的短期避险需求随之减少。同时美国5月CPI与PPI数据均低于预期，核心PPI环比增速更是降至一年新低，通胀压力缓解 令市场降息预期升温。目前市场预期美联储至2025年底降息50至75个基点的概率不断攀升，这对中期黄金走势构成利好。 黄金操作策略1：建议回调3317-3311做多，止损3304，目标看3340-3360站稳看3389。 生活除了投资，还 ...

"银行账簿利率风险产生原因、表现形式、管理与计量方式均与交易账簿市场风险存在较大不同。从银 行实践来看，交易账簿市场风险与银行账簿利率风险通常由不同部门或团队，通过不同的政策程序、计 量方法和管理工具进行管理。同时，《商业银行资本管理办法》《银行业金融机构全面风险管理指引》 中，均已将市场风险和银行账簿利率风险作为独立的两类风险管理。"金融监管总局有关司局负责人 说。 完善市场风险治理架构 《办法》强调完善市场风险治理架构，明确董事会、监事(会)和高级管理层的责任，界定三道防线的具 体范围和职责，比如董事会需要审批市场风险偏好，审批高管层的市场风险管理职责和权限，至少每年 一次审议市场风险管理报告等。同时要求银行对市场风险进行全流程管理，细化风险识别、计量、监 测、控制和报告要求。 ● 本报记者李静 国家金融监督管理总局日前发布《商业银行市场风险管理办法》，重点从明确市场风险定义、完善市场 风险治理架构、细化市场风险管理要求三方面强化商业银行市场风险管理。 业内人士认为，各类金融机构在管理基础、业务复杂度和风险特征方面存在显著差异，需采取差异化的 应对策略。同时，商业银行应通过理念转变、制度完善、科技赋能等方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly issued "Market Risk Management Measures" by the National Financial Regulatory Administration represents a significant update to market risk management requirements in China, enhancing the framework established in 2004 and addressing the evolving financial landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Updates - The "Measures" provide clearer risk boundaries, stricter governance requirements, and a more systematic management process to help banks manage market risks during extreme market conditions [1]. - The evolution of market risk management in China has progressed through several key regulations since 2004, culminating in the 2025 "Measures" which refine the governance structure and enhance operational resilience in market risk management [2]. Group 2: Governance Responsibilities - The "Measures" clarify the responsibilities of the board of directors, supervisory board, and senior management in market risk management, establishing a clear delineation of duties across three lines of defense [2]. - Banks are required to strengthen market risk management at the group level, ensuring that all subsidiaries align with the group's risk appetite and regulatory requirements [3]. Group 3: Market Risk Management Framework - The "Measures" mandate a comprehensive and refined approach to market risk management, emphasizing six key areas: scope redefinition, governance upgrades, consolidated reporting, data and valuation, stress scenarios, and model validation [4]. - Large and medium-sized banks with established market risk management systems are encouraged to conduct gap analyses against the "Measures" to ensure compliance, while smaller banks are advised to develop lightweight organizational structures tailored to their specific risk profiles [4]. Group 4: Integration with Global Standards - Domestic regulatory bodies are actively integrating into the global capital regulatory framework, prompting banks to enhance their capital measurement frameworks and risk model systems [4]. - Banks are focusing on building robust model risk management systems that ensure effective governance, lifecycle management, and technological empowerment, creating a closed-loop information support platform for model development and business application [4].

Group 1 - The European Commission plans to announce new regulations for the rapidly growing stablecoin market, despite warnings from the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding potential instability for regional banks during market volatility [1] - The proposed guidance will treat stablecoins issued outside the EU as interchangeable with those circulating solely within the EU, granting them "equal treatment" [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the importance of a digital euro for European financial sovereignty and criticizes privately issued stablecoins for posing risks to monetary policy and financial stability [2] Group 2 - The ECB's concerns include the potential for stablecoins to attract bank deposit outflows and their inability to consistently maintain fixed value [2] - An EU Commission spokesperson argues that well-governed and adequately collateralized stablecoins have a very low likelihood of experiencing a run [2] - The spokesperson also notes that in the event of a run, foreign holders would likely redeem their tokens in the U.S., where most tokens circulate and reserves are held [2]