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2026年铂钯行情展望:双轮驱动:宏观暖意与现货矛盾下的铂钯机遇
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 10:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the elements in the trading logic of platinum and palladium are more numerous than before. The fundamental contradiction in the platinum and palladium spot market and the optimistic macro - loose environment will support the rise of platinum and palladium in the first half of the year. Platinum may have a higher increase than palladium due to better fundamentals and stronger financial attributes. In the second half, if the spot contradiction eases, prices may fall. If US tariffs are implemented, the global supply - chain pattern of platinum and palladium will be reshaped. The expected price range for platinum is $1500 - 2800 per ounce in US dollars and 380 - 730 yuan per gram in RMB; for palladium, it is $1200 - 2250 per ounce in US dollars and 300 - 590 yuan per gram in RMB [2]. - In 2026, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities caused by spot structural imbalances. Consider a long - platinum and short - palladium ratio strategy. For the medium - to long - term unilateral strategy, it is advisable to go long on platinum at low prices, and for short - term intraday or weekly bands, consider allocating palladium, that is, go long on palladium when it has a deep correction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Platinum and Palladium Price Review 3.1.1 Platinum Price Logic Review - In 2025, platinum had a 93% increase by December 15. It broke through the 10 - year oscillation range, with macro - sentiment as the core catalyst and good fundamentals as the support. The price went through different stages including shock - building, explosive growth, callback - oscillation, and secondary growth [6]. 3.1.2 Palladium Price Operation - In 2025, palladium had a unique "oscillation - climbing and long - short game" market, with a 67% increase by December 15. The core driving logic was the triple game of macro - liquidity loosening, supply - demand structural contradiction, and industrial transformation pressure. In the first half, it oscillated, and in the second half, it rose significantly due to macro - liquidity changes and market - structure marginal changes [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Sentiment - In 2025, the global macro - environment was characterized by "loose - dominated, resilient growth, and co - existing differentiation". Major economies implemented loose policies, with the global GDP growth rate expected to be in the 2.7% - 3.4% range and inflation gradually falling to 3% - 4.2%. However, trade protectionism and policy uncertainties still posed potential pressures [20]. - In 2026, the global economy will slow down moderately, and the loose cycle will continue with significant differentiation. The attractiveness of anti - inflation assets such as precious metals is expected to increase. In 2025, platinum's price soared due to price - to - return advantages, supply - demand gaps, and growth - type demand, but it cannot truly replace gold due to core shortcomings in liquidity, stability, and lack of currency attributes [21][22]. 3.3 Supply Side in 2026 3.3.1 Primary Mineral Differentiation - South Africa's power supply has improved, but there are still local shortages. In 2026, mines and residents may face stepped power rationing. The production rhythm of core mining enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious growth momentum. The All - In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of core mining enterprises have soared, and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) has decreased, which will drag down the realization of existing and new production capacities to some extent [26][33][39]. 3.3.2 Recycling Supply - Global platinum and palladium recycling enterprises have sufficient production - capacity reserves. Driven by high prices, they have a strong willingness to increase production. It is expected that in 2026, the global platinum and palladium recycling supply scale will increase significantly, with an expected incremental supply of 15 - 20 tons in China [46][47]. 3.3.3 Spot Structural Contradiction - Affected by the US 232 investigation and the anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on palladium, platinum and palladium inventories have been hoarded in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), leading to frequent liquidity crises in the New York and London markets and violent fluctuations in the price spread between the two markets. Before the judgment results are announced in the first half of 2026, the spot structural imbalance will remain an "irreconcilable contradiction" [48][50][52]. 3.4 Demand Side in 2026 3.4.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Replace Traditional Energy Vehicles - The global automotive market is shifting towards new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2026, the sales volume of pure - electric and hybrid vehicles will reach 26.1 million. Hybrid electric vehicles have a higher total platinum - palladium load than traditional fuel vehicles, which alleviates the decline in platinum - palladium demand. Globally, platinum demand in the automotive field is expected to increase by 0.91%, while palladium demand is expected to decrease by 0.06% [59][70][71]. 3.4.2 Industrial Demand - In the glass - fiber industry, China's new production capacity is expected to increase platinum demand by 3.3 tons in 2026. In the petrochemical industry, platinum demand has a moderate growth expectation. The promotion of fuel - cell vehicles is declining, and there is no hope of explosive growth in the short term. Overall, platinum and palladium industrial demand is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 [79][84][91]. 3.4.3 Jewelry Demand - China's platinum jewelry demand has declined for two consecutive years, and India has restricted platinum jewelry imports. It is expected that global platinum jewelry demand will decline by 10% in 2026, while palladium jewelry demand is expected to remain stable [92][94][95]. 3.4.4 Investment Demand - Platinum and palladium investment products are niche. In 2026, as prices rise in the first half, ETFs may continue to increase their holdings; when prices reach a high level, there may be profit - taking. It is expected that the investment demand for platinum and palladium will decline by 30% throughout the year [97][103][106]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - On the supply side, in 2026, the global platinum mineral supply is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the palladium mineral supply will be stable. The recycling supply will be the core incremental source, with an expected increase of 6 tons of platinum and 10 tons of palladium [107]. - On the demand side, there is significant differentiation. In the automotive exhaust - catalysis field, hybrid vehicles help stop the decline in platinum - palladium demand. In 2026, platinum will be in a tight - supply balance, and palladium will have a slight supply surplus [108][109]. - The platinum and palladium spot market has a significant structural contradiction, which will support price increases in the medium term. Key factors to track include the release of hidden inventories, price differentiation between platinum and palladium, and the change in investment sentiment [111].
蜀道装备(300540) - 投资者活动记录表(2025年12月19日)
2025-12-19 08:40
Group 1: Strategic Development - The company aims to transform from a "traditional equipment manufacturer" to a "comprehensive service provider in gas and new energy" through strategic upgrades and investments in industrial gases, LNG, and hydrogen sectors [2] - A partnership with Shudao Group's specialized investment institutions is established to leverage capital for industrial transformation, creating a new development pattern that integrates technology, industry, and capital [2] Group 2: Joint Ventures and Collaborations - The joint venture "Shudao Toyota Hydrogen Technology (Sichuan) Co., Ltd." has a registered capital of 236 million yuan, with the company holding 45%, Shudao Group 5%, and Toyota 50% [3] - The joint venture will establish an independent R&D team and local production lines in Chengdu for hydrogen fuel cell systems, targeting commercial vehicles and non-vehicle applications in the Sichuan-Chongqing economic circle [3] Group 3: Hydrogen Storage Technologies - Liquid hydrogen (LH2) is preferred for applications requiring high energy density, such as aerospace and long-distance transport, while solid-state hydrogen storage is better suited for distributed, small-scale applications [3] - Both technologies are complementary, serving different market needs rather than being direct substitutes [3] Group 4: Research and Development Progress - The company is collaborating with leading industry players on hydrogen-powered drones and trains, with ongoing projects utilizing onboard liquid hydrogen storage for hydrogen-powered trains [3] - The company ensures compliance with information disclosure regulations, maintaining transparency and accuracy in communications with investors [3]
六大新品+全国首个氢能测试平台,中鼎恒盛解锁氢能装备新高度
势银能链· 2025-12-19 02:24
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements made by Zhongding Hengsheng Gas Equipment Co., Ltd. in the hydrogen energy sector, particularly through the launch of a hydrogen compressor testing platform and six new product series, marking a transition from equipment supplier to a key infrastructure builder and standard setter in the industry [2][10][19]. Group 1: Hydrogen Compressor Testing Platform - The first hydrogen compressor testing platform in China has been launched, covering an area of approximately 4,000 square meters, located in the National Hydrogen High-end Equipment Industrial Park in Wuhu [9]. - The platform is equipped to simulate various operational conditions for metal diaphragm compressors, capable of testing up to 100 MPa discharge pressure, filling a gap in domestic testing capabilities [9][10]. - It features a comprehensive digital monitoring system that collects critical parameters and ensures safety during testing through a multi-level alarm and protection system [9][10]. Group 2: New Product Launches - Six new product series were introduced, addressing diverse market needs from precision applications to large-scale industrial demands [11]. - The "RD32" G0 diaphragm compressor targets precision fields requiring small flow, high precision, and high sealing [12]. - The "RD16" third-generation 90 MPa diaphragm compressor enhances reliability and aims to meet future hydrogen station demands [13]. - The "RD27" dual-action GDS5 diaphragm compressor simplifies traditional multi-machine setups, reducing costs and installation space [14]. - The "RD28" four-cylinder GM5 diaphragm compressor significantly boosts efficiency, catering to the chemical and energy sectors [15]. - The "RD29" large-diameter diaphragm compressor addresses cost reduction and efficiency for large projects, while the "RD36" GD6 diaphragm compressor sets new standards for high-capacity applications [16][17]. Group 3: Intellectual Property and Market Position - Zhongding Hengsheng has established a robust intellectual property framework, applying for 22 invention patents, 9 utility model patents, and 7 design patents related to the new products [17]. - The introduction of these products reflects the company's commitment to long-term strategies and its evolution from a specialized manufacturer to a comprehensive solution provider in the hydrogen energy sector [19].
欣锐科技:自主研发的DCF解决方案,应用碳化硅,单机覆盖60KW-400KW功率范围
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-19 01:33
每经AI快讯,有投资者在投资者互动平台提问:公司在氢能领域研发多年,投入比较多,请问拥有哪 些比较领先的技术? 欣锐科技(300745.SZ)12月19日在投资者互动平台表示,公司在氢能领域深耕多年,已是氢能与燃料 电池汽车高压"电控"DCF系列产品的主流配套商,我们与行业内的领先系统厂商及主机厂客户建立了合 作关系。产品主要技术优势包括:1、自主研发的DCF解决方案,应用碳化硅,单机覆盖60KW-400KW 功率范围,转换效率98%+达行业领先水平;2、产品具备轻量化、尺寸兼容、高可靠性等特性;3、汽 车级设计,兼容ASIL(汽车安全完整性等级)。公司将持续关注相关政策、技术标准和市场需求的演 进,为未来绿色能源解决方案的发展贡献力量。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
港股异动 | 重塑能源(02570)午后涨超4% 燃料电池汽车放量确定性增强 公司为燃料电池龙头
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 06:32
Core Viewpoint - The fuel cell industry is experiencing rapid technological advancements and cost reductions, with expectations for fuel cell heavy trucks to reach cost parity by 2028, positioning the company as a leader in this sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The stock price of Reconstruct Energy (02570) increased by over 4% in the afternoon, currently trading at 69.15 HKD with a transaction volume of 66.36 million HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The fuel cell sector is seeing significant technological progress and cost reductions, with potential catalysts including government support for hydrogen energy and increased sales volume in the fuel cell industry [1] - The upstream hydrogen production is beginning large-scale supply, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations is increasing, leading to improved industry chain support [1] - Targeted policies, such as waiving highway fees, are expected to accelerate the application and economic viability of fuel cell heavy trucks, enhancing the certainty of fuel cell vehicle sales growth and driving sector recovery [1]
重塑能源午后涨超4% 燃料电池汽车放量确定性增强 公司为燃料电池龙头
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 06:30
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive outlook for ReShape Energy (02570) as a leading player in the fuel cell industry, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions in fuel cell technology, with significant growth potential in the heavy-duty truck and off-grid ultra-fast charging markets [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ReShape Energy's stock rose over 4% in the afternoon session, currently trading at 69.15 HKD with a transaction volume of 66.36 million HKD [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the expected parity in the lifecycle costs of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks post-2028 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The fuel cell industry is experiencing rapid technological progress and cost reduction, with expectations for increased sales volume driven by supportive national hydrogen policies [1] - The upstream hydrogen supply is beginning to scale up, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations is increasing, leading to improved industry chain support [1] - Targeted policies, such as the exemption of highway fees, are expected to accelerate the adoption and economic viability of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, enhancing the certainty of fuel cell vehicle sales growth [1] - The emergence of leading fuel cell companies going public is contributing to the formation of a sector effect, driving overall industry sentiment [1]
铂金年内飙涨113%,三大因素曝光
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-17 14:34
记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨肖嘉 贵金属年末出现"发烧"行情,实现普遍轮涨。继黄金、白银价格大幅拉涨后,有色商品的大涨"接力棒"传递到了铂金。 | W | 贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 5日涨跌幅 | 年初至今▼ | | 伦敦银现 | 8.73% | 128.31% | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | COMEX M-白 | 7.81% | 125.14% | | QI.CMX | | | | COMEX白银 | 7.87% | 125.25% | | SI.CMX | | | | NYMEX铂 | 13.88% | 113.66% | | PL.NYM | | | | 现货铂金(美元/ | 13.75% | 112.51% | | SPTPTUSDOZ.IDC | | | | SGE白银T+D | 13.67% | 107.14% | | AG(T+D).SGE | | | | 上海银 | 13.80% | 106.84% | | SHAG.SGE | | | | SHFE自银 | 7.92% | 104.49% | | AG.SHF | | | 截至12月 ...
贵金属发烧!铂期货上市二度涨停 年内涨幅已达110%
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-17 11:17
21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 贵金属年末出现"发烧"行情,实现普遍轮涨。继黄金、白银价格大幅拉涨后,有色商品的大涨"接力棒"传递到了铂金。 12月17日,继前两日大涨之后,国内铂金期货主力合约开盘延续冲高态势,广期所铂金期货主力合约再度触及涨停,上涨7%,最高触及 527.55元/克,为上市以来第二次涨停。国际市场上,NYMEX铂金期货价格突破1933美元/盎司。截至目前,铂金年内价格累计涨幅已达 110%,远超同期黄金64%的涨幅,目前仅次于白银的127%。 铂金年内出现三波上涨 今年以来,NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨110%,是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 交易人士称,这轮铂金价格的涨势受到多重因素的共同驱动,包括现货供应持续收紧、新能源产业政策导向、地缘局势变化。 从价格走势看,11月以来,NYMEX铂金期货价格已累计上涨超20%。拉长周期看,国际铂金价格在6月和9月经历大幅上涨,涨幅分别达到 28%、17%。 卓创资讯分析师黄加奇认为本轮铂金上涨,主要经历了三个阶段。第一阶段是今年5到7月,南非一季度生产面临极端天气、矿体老化、限电政 策等因素,南非一季度铂族金属产量同比下降13%,全球铂金矿端 ...
万和电气:目前已实现纯氢燃具核心技术突破并获得国际权威认证
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-17 11:12
证券日报网讯12月17日,万和电气(002543)在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,目前已实现纯氢燃具 核心技术突破并获得国际权威认证,富氢相关产品已落地多个示范项目;同时,公司主导制定了多项氢 能领域标准,构建起"产品研发+标准引领+场景落地"的立体化商用化推进体系。 ...
港股开盘:恒指涨0.03%、科指涨0.12%、科网股及黄金股走高,券商股活跃
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-17 01:42
12月17日,港股小幅高开,其中恒生指数涨0.03%报25243.59点,恒生科技指数涨0.09%报5407.36点, 国企指数涨0.12%报8768.33点,红筹指数涨0.08%报4063.38点。 越秀地产(00123.HK):获授5亿港元的定期贷款融资。 中国铁建(01186.HK):拟发行不超过40亿元可续期公司债券。 歌礼制药-B(01672.HK):将股份购回资金由最多3亿港元增至最多5亿港元。 盘面上,大型科技股普遍高开飘红,腾讯控股涨0.08%,京东集团涨0.45%,小米集团涨0.93%,网易涨 0.66%,美团涨0.1%,快手涨0.47%,哔哩哔哩跌0.11%;黄金股高开,招金矿业涨超1%;中资券商股 活跃,弘业期货涨近1%;国际油价走低,石油股下跌;今日HASHKEY HLDGS上市,首日高开0.3%。 腾讯控股(00700.HK):斥资约6.36亿港元回购106.7万股,回购价592.5-602.5港元。 企业新闻 小米集团-W(01810.HK):斥资2.94亿港元回购720万股,回购价40.36-41.00港元。 中国能源建设(03996.HK):投资建设的中能建松原氢能产业园(绿色 ...