Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will submit a list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to President Trump in December, with three to four candidates expected for interviews after Thanksgiving [1] - The candidate pool has been narrowed down from 11 to 5, including current Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [1] - Bessent emphasized that Trump's decision-making process involves gathering opinions from numerous individuals before making a final choice [1] Group 2 - Candidates for the Fed Chair position must demonstrate a willingness to support significant interest rate cuts while also proving their economic expertise and maintaining a degree of independence [1][2] - Bessent did not directly address whether candidates must support rate cuts but stated that openness and judgment of the current situation are key selection criteria [2] - The new Fed Chair is expected to be appointed for a 14-year term starting in early 2026, and Trump is also seeking to replace current Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to allegations of mortgage fraud [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed down the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, with a potential nomination as early as January, although it may not necessarily be for the Chair position [1] Candidate Selection Process - The remaining candidates include current Fed officials Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles and Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income Rick Rieder [1] - The Treasury plans to conduct another round of interviews with these five candidates in the coming weeks and months, led by Mnuchin, along with two senior Treasury officials and two senior White House officials [1] - The interview process may extend beyond Thanksgiving due to Mnuchin's commitments to the World Bank/IMF meetings and a subsequent trip to Asia with President Trump [1] Importance of the Nomination - The new Fed Chair will be crucial as the current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, but he still has two years left on his Board seat [1] - The seat previously held by former Fed Governor Kugar is currently occupied by Milan, which will end in January, allowing the new Chair to be nominated to a full 14-year term [1] Selection Criteria - Mnuchin is looking for a candidate who is open to new ideas regarding the Fed's operations and monetary policy, with experience in economics, monetary policy, bank regulation, and management [2] Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Mnuchin has recently criticized the Fed, calling for a review of its policies, structure, and mission, indicating a preference for a candidate willing to reduce the Fed's size and limit the use of certain tools, particularly quantitative easing [3] - Currently, no candidate is in the lead, but Rieder has made a strong impression on Mnuchin, being a well-known figure on Wall Street with extensive analysis of fixed income markets and the Fed [3] - Rieder is noted as the only candidate among the five who has never worked at the Fed, which could be seen as a positive factor [3]

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has gained positive evaluations from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin after a two-hour interview, positioning him as a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair [1][2] Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - Mnuchin is impressed by Rieder's extensive market experience and deep understanding of micro and macroeconomic factors [1] - Rieder's forward-looking analytical approach, which does not rely on lagging data, aligns with the government's expectations for a more flexible monetary policy [2] - Rieder is noted for his calm demeanor and in-depth knowledge of non-bank financial institutions, which are seen as beneficial traits for the Fed Chair position [2] Group 2: Selection Process - Mnuchin has interviewed four out of the eleven publicly mentioned candidates, with the selection process ongoing [1] - Other candidates being considered include Waller, Warsh, Hassett, Bowman, Bullard, Jefferson, Lindsey, Logan, Sumerlin, and Zervos [4] - A final shortlist of candidates is expected to be presented to Trump later this fall, with Powell's term ending in May next year [5] Group 3: Rieder's Monetary Policy Views - Rieder suggests that the Fed should consider a 50 basis point rate cut, which is double the market's expectation of 25 basis points [1] - He emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence while advocating for more innovative approaches to monetary policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expected to interview 11 candidates nominated by the Trump administration, which may reflect an unusual level of transparency and potential political pressure on the Fed [2][3][5]. Candidate Details - Among the 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, three are considered strong contenders: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Other candidates include Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Larry Lindsey, James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Rick Rieder, and David Zervos [4]. Importance of the Federal Reserve Chair Selection - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is crucial as the Fed is a key economic policy-making institution in the U.S., influencing interest rates and, consequently, the economic well-being of individuals and businesses [7]. The confirmation process may face heightened partisan conflict due to current political polarization [7].

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,339.66 tons of silver as of August 19, with a decrease of 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On August 19, the spot silver price closed at $37.36 per ounce, down 1.68%, with an intraday high of $38.15 and a low of $37.26 [1] Group 2 - The White House released a list of 11 final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman, marking a shift from previous speculation that only included Trump loyalists [3] - The expanded candidate list now includes current and former Federal Reserve officials, indicating potential private communication opportunities regarding interest rate cuts [3] - The list features three current Fed officials and includes private sector economists, reflecting a broader approach to the selection process [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair is perceived as a performance by officials to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, despite claims of an "open" selection process [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - The White House has released a list of 11 potential candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, which includes both current and former Fed officials, expanding beyond previous rumors of a shortlist of Trump loyalists [1][2]. - The expanded list includes current Fed officials such as Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, as well as private sector economists [2]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - Experts express skepticism about the "open process," suggesting that Trump will likely choose someone loyal to him and who agrees with his demand for a rate cut of 150 to 175 basis points [3]. - Analysts believe the list serves as a means for the White House to engage with Fed officials who oppose rate cuts, allowing for a more diplomatic discussion [4]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The list may encourage candidates to publicly advocate for rate cuts to maintain their candidacy, creating a unified voice that drowns out dissenting opinions [5][6]. - The White House aims to amplify calls for rate cuts through candidates vying for the Fed Chair position, with indications that this strategy is already influencing the interest rate market [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions - The outcome of the selection process remains unpredictable, with no immediate pressure on Trump to announce a candidate, and analysts suggest that the core candidates are still limited [7]. - Names frequently mentioned include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with speculation that Trump prefers an outsider for the Fed Chair position [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has expanded to include 11 candidates, indicating a complex and possibly strategic maneuver by the White House to influence monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - The list of candidates has grown from a few to 11, with Treasury Secretary Becerra planning to meet with them around Labor Day to narrow down the options for President Trump [1]. - The expanded list includes both current and former Federal Reserve officials, suggesting a potential strategy to apply pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [2][3]. - Notable candidates include current Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Logan, both of whom are seen as cautious regarding rate cuts, raising questions about their inclusion in the selection process [4]. Group 2: Implications of the Selection Process - Analysts suggest that the expanded candidate list may serve as a platform for the White House to engage with Fed officials who are resistant to rate cuts, allowing for a more diplomatic discussion on monetary policy [5]. - The list is perceived as a tactic by Becerra to exert pressure on Powell and the Fed, with the aim of steering them towards a more dovish stance [6]. - The White House may be leveraging the candidate discussions to create a narrative in favor of rate cuts, thereby influencing market perceptions and expectations [7]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts believe that the final decision on the next Fed Chair remains uncertain, with no immediate pressure on Trump to announce a choice [7][8]. - Despite the surprising expansion of the candidate list, analysts expect that the ultimate selection will likely align with Trump's preferences, particularly favoring candidates who are loyal to him [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering potential candidates for the upcoming vacancy of the Chair position, with several notable figures in the running [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Vice Chairmen Bowman and Jefferson, along with Dallas Fed President Logan, are being considered for the Federal Reserve Chair position [1] - Other candidates include Trump's economic advisor Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Waller, economist Mark Zandi, and former Fed officials Kevin Warsh and James Bullard [1] - Treasury Secretary Basant will interview all candidates and provide a shortlist to the President for further consideration [1] Group 2: Current Developments - Trump is expected to make a final announcement regarding the Chair position this fall [1] - Last week, Trump nominated Stephen Moore, the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a Federal Reserve Governor seat [1] - The Trump team believes there is no urgency to find a new Chair since Moore's nomination has already been submitted for Senate confirmation [1]

Core Views - The next Federal Reserve Chair should be someone who can assess the entire organization and focus on core monetary policy responsibilities, as stated by Treasury Secretary Basent [1][3] - The new Chair must earn market confidence and possess the ability to analyze complex economic data, emphasizing forward-looking thinking rather than relying on historical data [1][5] Reassessment of Federal Reserve Functions - A primary task for the next Federal Reserve Chair may involve reevaluating the extensive functions of the institution, which have expanded into areas like financial stability and climate risk, raising concerns about deviation from core monetary policy duties [3] Decision-Making Paradigm Shift - The future Federal Reserve Chair is expected to adopt a forward-looking decision-making approach, moving away from reliance on lagging indicators such as historical inflation data and employment metrics [5] Strong Dollar Policy Redefined - Basent defines a "strong dollar policy" as one that maintains the dollar's status as a reserve currency, rather than focusing on short-term exchange rate fluctuations [7] - He supports the current policy path of the Bank of Japan, suggesting that focusing on inflation outcomes rather than exchange rate results will resolve yen issues [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expanding its list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to approximately 10 individuals, indicating a shift in the selection process and potential implications for market perceptions of Fed independence [1][4]. Candidate Selection Process - The candidate list now includes James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh, with Scott Bessent leading the selection process [1]. - Bessent was initially considered for the position but opted out, and he will conduct preliminary interviews with candidates before presenting a final list to Trump [1][2]. Candidate Backgrounds - James Bullard recently stepped down as the St. Louis Fed President and is now the Dean of Purdue University's business school; he has expressed interest in the Fed Chair position [3]. - Marc Sumerlin, who served as an economic advisor during the Bush administration, lacks direct Fed experience but has maintained business ties with Bessent [3]. Market Implications - The emergence of traditional economists Bullard and Sumerlin as potential successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell may alleviate market concerns regarding the politicization of the Fed, potentially affecting U.S. Treasury yield curves [4].