Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports reevaluating the Federal Reserve's inflation target after a steady decline in inflation to 2% and suggests discussing a potential range for the target, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% [1] Group 1 - Bessent acknowledges public concerns regarding the cost of living, attributing the pain felt by Americans to high prices during the Biden administration [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic policies, particularly focusing on the **14th and 15th Five-Year Plans**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Need for Expanding Domestic Demand**: The necessity and timing for expanding domestic demand are critical policy goals. If expanding domestic demand is a target, policies will be directed to achieve this outcome [2][3] 2. **Economic Policy Evolution**: The evolution of China's economic policies from the 13th to the 15th Five-Year Plans reflects a shift towards enhancing total factor productivity and preventing economic stagnation [2][4] 3. **Goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan**: Key objectives include restoring the manufacturing share to over 30% and achieving a per capita GNI of over $15,000, necessitating increased technological content and service sector contributions [6][10] 4. **Global Financial Environment**: The low-interest-rate environment globally, particularly in Japan, has made Japanese assets more attractive than Chinese ones, impacting China's bond yields [4][6] 5. **Inflation Targets**: The global inflation target of 2% has both economic and political significance, especially in light of rising inflation post-pandemic, which disproportionately affects low-income groups [7][10] 6. **Shift from Austerity to Growth**: There is a global transition from austerity measures to increasing tax revenues, particularly targeting wealthy individuals and large corporations, indicating a long-term trend towards higher interest rates [9][10] 7. **Impact of International Environment**: The international environment significantly influences China's economic status, necessitating strategic responses to global financial changes [4][5] 8. **Future Domestic Demand Expansion**: Major actions to expand domestic demand are expected between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027, coinciding with a slowdown in U.S. demand and the Belt and Road Initiative entering a productive phase [11][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in the 14th Five-Year Plan**: While there have been achievements in total factor productivity, challenges such as real estate market suppression and reduced external demand due to U.S. trade protectionism have emerged [5][10] 2. **U.S. Employment and Inflation Data**: Recent U.S. employment and inflation data indicate a slowdown, with non-farm payrolls showing mixed results and inflation rates dropping below expectations, which may influence future economic policies [12][15] 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving the U.S. and Ukraine, could have significant implications for international economic conditions and trade [16][17] 4. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The U.S. is reinforcing its control over the Western Hemisphere, which may affect global supply chains and economic relations, particularly with China [21] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the strategic direction of China's economic policies and the broader implications of global economic trends.

12月19日，美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性。"我个 人并没有紧迫感，认为当前需要在货币政策方面采取进一步行动，因为我认为，我们已经实施的降息使 政策处于非常好的状态，"威廉姆斯表示。"我希望看到通胀回落至2%，同时不对劳动力市场造成不必 要的损害。这要达到一种平衡。"威廉姆斯表示，本周公布的就业和通胀报告反映了近期政府停摆造成 的数据扭曲。但他指出，这些数据表明基本通胀继续在向美联储2%的目标迈进，同时劳动力市场也在 逐步降温。 ...

日本央行称，经济已温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲软迹象。工资和通胀很可能继续温和同步上升。 将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适时实施货币政策。即使在利率变动后，货币环境依 然宽松，支持经济。 政策声明全文 货币市场操作指引变化 SHMET 网讯：周五，日本央行将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，符合市场预期。利率水平创30年 来新高，这也是2025年1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次进行加息。日本央行一致通过政策决议。 根据声明，日本央行预计实际利率将维持在显著低位，"即使在加息之后，实际利率仍处于深度负 值区间"。若经济和物价走势与预测一致，并随着经济和物价的改善，将继续上调政策利率。 在今日召开的货币政策会议上，日本央行政策委员会以全票通过，决定将会议间隔期的货币市场操 作指引设定如下： 日本央行将引导无担保隔夜拆借利率维持在约0.75%的水平。 根据货币市场操作指引的调整，日本央行以全票通过，决定调整其相关措施所适用的利率。 （1）补充性存款便利适用利率 补充性存款便利适用的利率（即金融机构在日本央行持有的往来账户余额中，扣除法定准备金后的 部分所适用的利率）为0.75%。 （2）基本贷款利率 ...

日本央行一致通过政策决议。日本央行表示，预计实际利率将维持在显著低位。若经济和物价走势与预 测一致，并随着经济和物价改善，将继续上调政策利率。经济已温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲软迹象。 将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适时实施货币政策。工资和通胀很可能继续温和同步 上升。劳动力市场状况持续紧张，企业利润总体上仍处于高位。日本经济增长很可能较为温和。实现基 准情景的可能性一直在上升。即使在加息之后，实际利率仍处于深度负值区间。鉴于劳资双方在春季工 资谈判中考虑了相关因素，企业明年极有可能继续稳步加薪。即使在利率变动后，货币环境依然宽松， 支持经济。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes [1][5]. Interest Rates - The deposit facility rate remains at 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.40% [3][7]. Inflation Outlook - The ECB's latest assessment confirms that inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term. Forecasts indicate an average inflation of 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is projected to average 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. The inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised upward due to expectations that service sector inflation will decline more slowly than previously anticipated [2][6]. Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth forecasts have been upgraded compared to September's predictions, driven by domestic demand. Growth rates are now projected at 1.4% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027, and expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028 [2][6]. Policy Tools and Market Stability - The ECB is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and to maintain the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. The Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are being reduced in an orderly and predictable manner, as the euro area no longer reinvests the principal of maturing securities. Additionally, transmission protection tools may be employed to address unjustified market volatility that poses a serious threat to monetary policy transmission across the euro area [4][7].

美联储古尔斯比：只要我们确定通胀正朝着2%的目标回落，利率就可以大幅下调。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2%, aligning with analysts' expectations [1] Economic Resilience and Inflation Target - The macroeconomic backdrop of the meeting indicates stronger resilience in the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the third quarter performance exceeding market expectations [5] - The ECB's statement reflects a tolerance for short-term inflation fluctuations, projecting that inflation will stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term, despite forecasts suggesting it may be slightly below this target over the next two years [5] Market Expectations Shift and Policy Divergence - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady distinguishes it from the global trend of monetary easing, as both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have recently cut rates [6] - Investors are reassessing their expectations, moving away from a singular focus on easing and beginning to price in the possibility of the ECB raising rates as early as 2026 [6] Decision-Maker Stance Towards Hawkishness - Statements from ECB officials reinforce expectations of a pause in rate cuts and potential future rate hikes, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel indicating that she is not overly concerned as long as inflation deviates only slightly from the target [7] - The previously dovish stance of Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus has shifted, acknowledging the unexpectedly strong economic performance and suggesting no further easing is necessary [7] Interest Rate Details - ECB deposit facility rate: 2%, expected: 2%, previous: 2% [8] - ECB marginal lending rate: 2.4%, expected: 2.4%, previous: 2.4% [8] - ECB main refinancing rate: 2.15%, expected: 2.15%, previous: 2.15% [8]

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普起诉BBC索赔百亿美元指控纪录片诽谤 ·美拟对欧企加征报复性措施科技税争端升级 ·非农数据喜忧参半：就业略超预期失业率升至三年高点 ·欧元区制造业持续萎缩德法表现分化明显 ·泰国央行干预汇市降息预期升温 【市场资讯】 ·美国总统特朗普正式对英国广播公司（BBC）提起诉讼，指控其《全景》纪录片构成诽谤，并违反佛 罗里达州贸易行为法，两项指控各索赔50亿美元，总索赔额高达100亿美元。 ·为反击欧盟对美科技企业征税，特朗普政府威胁对包括埃森哲、西门子和Spotify在内的欧洲知名企业 实施新限制或收费。 ·亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克表示，美国劳动力市场正逐步降温，但尚无迹象显示经济将出现明 显放缓。他强调，若美联储长期未能实现2%的通胀目标，可能"确实会损害"其政策公信力。并警告， 进一步降息或将使货币政策进入宽松区间，进而推高通胀或抬升通胀预期，带来新的风险。 ·欧盟委员会提议将2035年新车"零排放"目标调整为"减排90%"，实质上为插电混动、增程式及轻度混合 动力等内燃机车型保留合法销售路径，缓和汽车产业转型压力。 ·面对泰铢持续升值对出口与旅游业造成的压力，泰国央行已要求银行加 ...

摘要今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎 司，日内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。 短线技术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试 上方阻力位。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎司，日 内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。短线技 术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试上方阻 力位。 【要闻速递】 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨晚非农数据利空，失业金数据却利多，黄金价格最终冲高回落，依然徘徊在大区间震荡的范围内。非 农数据未能助力黄金突破震荡格局，那么市场焦点可能将转向周四晚间的CPI数据。预计今日黄金大概 率继续维持震荡走势，投资者可在日内区间内采取高抛低吸的策略。 美国财政部长贝森特对经济前景表达了乐观态度，预测2025年美国GDP增速 ...