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中国外汇投资研究院:欧洲央行货币政策评估聚焦——不确定时代的通胀博弈
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 07:30
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted a strategic assessment of its monetary policy in response to significant changes in the market environment, including geopolitical conflicts, rapid advancements in digitalization and artificial intelligence, demographic shifts, climate crises, and a profound restructuring of the international financial system [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Strategy - The ECB's assessment addresses the need to optimize its economic evaluation framework, policy tools, and decision-making mechanisms in a "non-transparent and unstable" new normal [1]. - A significant adjustment in this assessment is the clarification and reinforcement of the inflation target, acknowledging past "substantial and persistent deviations" from the target [1]. Inflation Target - The inflation target is set at "significantly above 0%" (specifically 2%), which is crucial for ensuring that policy rates have sufficient "buffer space" to respond to negative shocks [2]. - The ECB emphasizes that the 2% target provides a "clear anchor" for inflation expectations while demonstrating pragmatic flexibility [2]. Policy Tools and Decision-Making - Adjustments to policy rates remain the primary tool, but the ECB is prepared to utilize other instruments such as long-term refinancing operations, asset purchases, negative interest rates, and forward guidance when necessary [3]. - The ECB has formally integrated scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis into its policy decision-making process, moving away from solely relying on baseline forecasts [3].
欧央行行长拉加德称降息周期接近尾声,还夸了鲍威尔
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-01 17:01
Core Viewpoint - ECB President Lagarde expressed caution regarding future monetary policy, emphasizing that while inflation targets have been met, the overall mission is not complete [1][2]. Inflation - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target, indicating that inflation goals have been achieved [2][3]. Interest Rate Path - Lagarde stated that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, but no pre-commitment to future rate changes will be made, with decisions to be based on data from each meeting [3][4]. - Current market expectations suggest a nearly 50% probability of another rate cut in September [3]. Neutral Interest Rate - Lagarde downplayed the significance of discussing the Eurozone's neutral interest rate, suggesting it may be higher than in the past and that current discussions are somewhat unrealistic given the existing economic conditions [4]. Dollar Status - Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a pivotal year for the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, acknowledging existing fractures but noting that significant changes will take time [5][6]. - The ECB sees an opportunity for the euro to play a larger international role amid a weakening dollar and urges governments to advance reforms for deeper capital markets [5]. Digital Euro - Lagarde reiterated the importance of a digital euro, emphasizing that currency is a public good and warning against the privatization of money, which could undermine monetary policy and national sovereignty [7]. Challenges and Opportunities in Europe - Lagarde highlighted significant challenges facing Europe, such as reduced protection from the U.S. and declining cheap energy, but also noted these could present new opportunities [8]. - She expressed hope that 2025 will be a transformative year for lifestyle and business models in Europe, contingent on political action [8].
新华财经晚报:上半年TOP100房企拿地总额同比增长33.3%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 09:59
·欧洲央行决定维持2%的通胀目标 【国内要闻】 ·国家医保局、国家卫生健康委印发《支持创新药高质量发展的若干措施》,其中提出,支持医保数据 用于创新药研发。加强医疗、医保、医药三方信息互通与协同,做好医保数据资源管理,推动医保领域 公共数据资源利用。 ·国家发改委消息,根据近期国际市场油价变化情况,按照现行成品油价格形成机制,自2025年7月1日 24时起,国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨235元和225元。 【重点关注】 ·中国银行研究院:预计下半年我国经济增速将低于上半年全年GDP增长5%左右 ·上半年TOP100房企拿地总额同比增长33.3% 【国际要闻】 ·针对亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克6月30日连发数十条帖文炮轰"大而美"税收和支出法案,美国总统特朗普7月1 日在社交媒体上回应称,马斯克"获得的(美国政府)补贴可能比历史上任何人都多",或许美国政府效 率部应该好好调查下马斯克公司获取政府补贴的情况。 ·当地时间6月30日,美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文表示,日本虽然面临严重的大米短缺,但仍不愿意 进口美国产的大米。特朗普说,他会给日本发一封信。日本媒体称特朗普这是暗示要通知日本提高关 税。对此,日本内阁官房长官 ...
欧洲央行副行长GUINDOS表示,欧洲央行非常接近通胀目标。
news flash· 2025-07-01 06:59
智通财经7月1日电,欧洲央行副行长GUINDOS表示,欧洲央行非常接近通胀目标。 ...
欧洲央行副行长金多斯:通胀低于2%目标的可能性相当有限。
news flash· 2025-07-01 06:49
欧洲央行副行长金多斯:通胀低于2%目标的可能性相当有限。 ...
国际金融市场早知道:7月1日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 00:22
Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump faces delays in the Senate, with a vote postponed to June 30, and is estimated to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there is no reason to increase the issuance of long-term national debt given current yield levels, but hopes for a decline in yields as inflation slows [1] - The European Central Bank maintains a 2% inflation target and considers the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) as an appropriate measure, while also suggesting the inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs in inflation statistics [3] Group 2 - Germany's June CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, reaching the European Central Bank's target level for the first time in nearly a year [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve official reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, with three rate cuts anticipated next year [2] - The U.S. White House announced the resumption of trade negotiations with Canada following the cancellation of the digital services tax [1]
欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩:可能面临从两个方向上更大的偏离2%的通胀目标的可能性。
news flash· 2025-06-30 11:13
欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩:可能面临从两个方向上更大的偏离2%的通胀目标的可能性。 ...
欧洲央行副行长:欧央行当前采取的利率立场被认为是正确的
news flash· 2025-06-30 09:33
6月30日消息,欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示,欧央行当前采取的利率立场被认为是正确的,且这一利率 政策与实现通胀回落至2%的目标相一致;鉴于目前存在的不确定性,必须保留所有关于利率调整的选 项。(新华财经) ...
欧洲央行副行长金多斯:欧洲央行正按计划实现其2%的通胀目标。
news flash· 2025-06-27 08:35
欧洲央行副行长金多斯:欧洲央行正按计划实现其2%的通胀目标。 ...
美联储卡什卡利:通胀率高于2%,必须将其恢复至2%的目标。
news flash· 2025-06-26 23:18
美联储卡什卡利:通胀率高于2%,必须将其恢复至2%的目标。 ...