Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the details of monetary policy should be left to the Bank of Japan, indicating a collaborative approach between the central bank and the government [1] - The Bank of Japan and the government agree that the economy is gradually recovering, with expectations for the central bank to manage policies towards a 2% inflation target [1] - There is no divergence in economic views between the Bank of Japan and the government, and both will monitor corporate trends closely [1] Group 2 - Transparency in spending is deemed crucial for fiscal trust, highlighting the importance of clear financial practices [1] - The reliance on imports means that fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate will impact prices, emphasizing the interconnectedness of currency value and inflation [1]

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 美联储最新发布的褐皮书调查显示， 美国经济活动在近几周几无变化 ，但除高端消费群体外， 整体消费者支出进一步下滑 。根据这家美国央 行于周三发布的针对地区商业联络人的褐皮书调查， 就业水平略有下降，物价则适度上涨 。 "总体而言，经济前景基本保持不变，"美联储表示，"部分联络人指出未来数月经济活动放缓的风险上升，而制造业领域则流露出一些乐观情 绪。"该报告依据美联储12家地区联储截至11月17日收集的信息编制，由达拉斯联储汇总完成。 包括纽约、亚特兰大和明尼阿波利斯在内的多个地区报告称，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭的消费能力明显疲软。明尼阿波利 斯联储引用一位联络人的观察指出："高收入客户未受制约，但财务状况处于中低水平的顾客正在收紧开支"。 对于12月会议应维持利率不变还是下调利率，美联储政策制定者之间存在分歧。这份报告为当前政策辩论的双方均提供了依据。 招聘冻结隐现 近几个月工资涨幅总体符合美联储通胀目标，但制造业、建筑业和医疗保健领域企业仍面临"温和"的薪 ...

据报道，日本央行委员野口旭表示，日本在实现通胀目标方面取得稳步进展。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Akira Noguchi, emphasizes that once supply and demand conditions tighten and begin to generate upward momentum, sustained price increases are not uncommon, as companies will compensate for previously delayed cost pass-throughs [1] - The sustainability of core inflation reaching the 2% target depends entirely on the momentum of wage increases and their spread to small and medium-sized enterprises and local economies [1] - If the price target is achieved in the latter half of the forecast period, the Bank of Japan should adjust interest rates at an appropriate pace to align with this timeline, indicating a need for a gradual increase in policy rates to smoothly reach the neutral rate when the 2% inflation target is met [1] Economic Context - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy has been limited so far [1] - A rapid or slow adjustment in policy rates could lead to issues; a fast rate hike may weaken wage growth momentum, making the 2% inflation target more elusive [1] - The Bank of Japan must exercise caution in policy adjustments due to the strong inertia of long-term deflation and zero inflation, despite prices having risen over 2% for more than three consecutive years [1] Risks of Policy Adjustment - The risk of slow policy adjustment lies in increasing the instability of economic activity and prices [1] - If the central bank decides not to raise rates until the price target is met, controlling inflation may become difficult unless a significant one-time increase in policy rates is implemented [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the lowest level in three years to support the nascent economic recovery [1][3] - The RBNZ's decision aligns with the majority of economists' predictions, emphasizing that the OCR reduction will bolster consumer and business confidence [1][3] - The RBNZ's forward guidance indicates an average OCR of 2.2% by the second quarter of next year, suggesting a 20% chance of further rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the easing cycle in August 2024, the RBNZ has been one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its peers, reducing the OCR by a total of 325 basis points [4] - The RBNZ forecasts GDP growth to accelerate by 2.8% annually in the 12 months ending March 2027, compared to only 0.5% in the previous year [4][5] - Inflation is expected to decrease from the current 3% to 2.1% by the third quarter of next year, reaching 2% a year later [5]

美国旧金山联储主席戴利（2027年FOMC票委）：支持12月降息。美联储能将通胀降至2%这一目标。 就业市场是脆弱的，劳动力市场突然恶化的可能性更大。官员们的意见分歧折射出对不确定性的看法。 （华尔街日报） ...

威廉姆斯表示，美联储需要在不对"最大就业目标"造成过度风险的情况下，实现通胀目标。"我认为当 前的货币政策仍然是温和限制性的……因此，我仍然认为短期内有进一步调整利率的空间，使政策立场 更接近中性区间，从而维持我们两个政策目标之间的平衡。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月21日电美联储官员威廉姆斯表示，美联储可以在"近期"降息，而不会危及其通胀目 标。威廉姆斯在为智利央行一场活动准备的讲话中表示，通胀方面的进展暂时停滞，并补充说，通胀从 当前他估计约为2.75%的水平持续回到2%的长期目标"至关重要"。但他表示，随着关税影响在经济中逐 步消化且没有造成持续的通胀压力，价格压力预计将会缓解；与此同时，劳动力市场似乎正在走软，失 业率在9月升至 4.4%，这一水平与疫情前几年相当。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing significant turmoil as the government prepares a large-scale economic stimulus plan, raising concerns about fiscal health and leading to a sell-off in government bonds [1][3][6] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest level since 2008, indicating a significant sell-off in the bond market [1][3] - The 40-year bond yield reached a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year bond yield hit 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [1] - The anticipated issuance of long-term bonds to finance the stimulus plan is seen as a primary driver for the rising yields [3][6] Group 2: Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government is finalizing a stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD) to boost the economy [1] - Reports suggest that the supplementary budget could be at least 25 trillion yen (approximately 168 billion USD), raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal position [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar, falling below 157 yen per dollar, reflecting market anxiety [3] - The Nikkei 225 index has experienced significant declines, erasing most gains since the new Prime Minister's election [3][4] Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - Japan's GDP contracted by an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, indicating ongoing economic challenges [4] - Investor sentiment has been further dampened by the cancellation of the primary fiscal balance target and proposed changes to corporate governance rules [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts warn that the upcoming announcement of the fiscal stimulus plan could trigger further sell-offs in Japanese assets, highlighting the fragility of the current market [6] - Concerns are growing that Japan may face a scenario similar to the UK under Liz Truss, with simultaneous declines in the stock market, bond market, and currency [6]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures inventory reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 535,090 kilograms, with a decrease of 12,595 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 12,290 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 12,306 yuan, a low of 11,912 yuan, and closed at 12,050 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.75% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - Meeting minutes indicate a divided opinion among Federal Reserve members regarding the recent interest rate cut, with some members expressing satisfaction with maintaining the current rate [2][3] - Concerns were raised about the potential for long-term inflation expectations to rise if inflation does not decrease promptly, with some members voting against the rate cut due to worries about achieving the 2% inflation target [2][3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making process in upcoming meetings [3]

智通财经APP获悉，在日元汇率跌至大约10个月以来最低位之后，日本央行货币政策委员会成员小枝淳子在谈到 有必要推动货币政策正常化时，释放出日本央行最早可能在下个月重启加息的重磅信号。这意味着在日元汇率 (兑美元)持续下跌之际，日本央行终于坐不住了——当前日元汇率位于1月以来最低且距离自去年7月以来的最弱 水平仅一步之遥，紧急派出代表放出鹰派言论稳住日元汇率。 据了解，小枝淳子周四在日本北部新潟向当地企业界领袖发表讲话时表示："鉴于当前实际利率处于显著偏低的 水平，我认为日本央行需要及时推进利率正常化进程。" 从日本央行货币政策委员会的鹰鸽成员阵营对照表来看，小枝淳子显然属于立场较强硬的鹰派阵营，不过小枝的 最新言论看似意在日元汇率持续走弱之际传递鹰派信息来维持日元稳定。然而日元兑美元却进一步走低，这表明 外汇市场交易员们或许在期待接下来日本央行官员们在日元走弱时期更为强硬的表态。 日本央行观察人士普遍预计，日本央行最迟不会晚于明年1月重启加息进程，隔夜掉期市场的最新定价显示，对 下个月采取货币政策行动的市场押注正在大幅降温。由于市场愈发相信美联储下个月不会降息，叠加市场惧怕崇 尚"安倍经济学"的高市早苗欲推出 ...