Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of the steel, iron ore, and other futures markets is supported by factors such as the marginal improvement of weekly data and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the pessimistic demand expectations limit the upside space. For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market fluctuated narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly, production was relatively stable, and inventory resumed a downward trend. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, production declined, and inventory resumed a downward trend. Iron ore production is at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large. As the off - season of demand approaches, the terminal's carrying capacity needs to be observed. Domestic demand in downstream industries is still weak, manufacturing prosperity has declined, and real estate sales recovery is fluctuating [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore fluctuated normally, with no obvious increase for the time being. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and the national port inventory decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded, but there is still seasonal weakening pressure in the future. With a high profit rate of steel mills, iron ore production can still maintain a high level for the time being. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of iron ore production in the medium term [2] Coke - The price of coke fluctuated weakly. It is expected to be reduced in price this Thursday, and daily production has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Steel billet export orders are good. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity of the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has loosened slightly, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory of coking coal is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese fluctuated narrowly. The national manganese ore port inventory has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of more than 300,000 tons last week. It is estimated that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level, the supply of silicomanganese continues to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, which continues to suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Export demand generally shows a downward trend month - on - month, but the marginal impact is small. The production of magnesium metal is basically flat and remains stable at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continuously increased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7]