1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, global risk appetite has risen, and the domestic risk - preference is also expected to continue to increase. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; among commodity sectors, black metals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the US September ADP employment data and ISM services PMI were below expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the depreciation of the yen pushed the US dollar stronger, global risk appetite continued to rise. Domestically, the US economic data during the National Day holiday was below expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and global stock markets generally rose. The domestic central bank made a large - scale renewal of MLF, with abundant market liquidity. Multiple domestic industries' steady - growth plans were successively introduced, increasing policy support, and domestic risk appetite is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [4]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Before the holiday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, and trading volume was at a low level. During the holiday, the EU's tariff increase on the steel industry was confirmed. The real demand continued to weaken, but there were differences in trends among varieties. The demand for rebar improved, with pre - holiday inventory decreasing by 139,800 tons and apparent consumption increasing by 104,100 tons; hot - rolled coils saw inventory accumulation and a decline in apparent consumption. The supply of five major steel products increased by 94,700 tons month - on - month, and the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. The logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue, and the steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [5]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Before the holiday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong. The daily average pig - iron output of blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons, and ore demand was still strong. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 2.48 million tons month - on - month before the holiday, while the arrival volume increased by 3.127 million tons, and the overall supply remained high. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 1.69 million tons throughout the week. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has intensified, considering that the proportion of profitable steel mills is still above 56%, the probability of actual negative feedback being triggered in the short term is not high. The iron ore price should be treated with an interval - oscillation idea in the short term, and there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November [6]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Before the holiday, the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly. The downstream steel mills' centralized procurement in September was basically completed, and with the approaching of the October tender, the downstream demand is expected to improve. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - Before the holiday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated weakly. The supply is still in the capacity - release period, maintaining a loose pattern with pressure. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand increased month - on - month. Currently, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate widely in the short - term range. In the long - term, the supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view should be taken [8]. 3.3.5 Glass - Before the holiday, the main contract of glass fluctuated within a range. After the release of the "Building Materials Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the glass price formed a bottom support. Fundamentally, the supply remained stable, and in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, demand improved marginally, and the mid - and downstream carried out phased restocking. The overall supply - demand situation of glass has improved, and it is advisable to be long in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - During the holiday, LME copper rose due to concerns about the tight global copper - mine supply. The Grasberg mining area had an accident, affecting a production volume of 270,000 tons. It is expected to resume production in 2026 and fully return to normal in 2027. The domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 11.62% in September. The demand faced challenges as the factors boosting demand weakened. The recent copper inventory reduction was less than expected. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the US economic situation, which is in a slow - down trend [9]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Before the holiday, downstream restocking and the decline in aluminum prices stimulated downstream restocking, resulting in a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons in the weekly social inventory of aluminum. It is expected that inventory will accumulate during the holiday. Currently, the aluminum supply is rigid, with domestic production and imports at historical highs, while demand weakened marginally. The year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand in September dropped from 5% - 6% in the second quarter to - 0.7%. If deduced, even if there is inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, the speed and amplitude will be low, which will restrict the upside space of aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose mainly driven by the increase in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 21,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum [9]. 3.4.3 Tin - During the holiday, LME tin soared, driven by the increase in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin - mine exploitation. However, the impact of Indonesia's policy is limited, so the upward height is expected to be restricted. The tin price has support below due to the tightness in the mining end and the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan, resulting in a low smelting start - up rate. However, the smelter maintenance is short - term, and they will resume production in October, with the start - up rate expected to rise. The mining end will also loosen in the long run. It is expected that the price will remain in high - level oscillation in the short term, and the maintenance expectation and peak - season expectation will still support the price, but the upside space will still be under pressure [10]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - In September, the lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with weekly production reaching a new high. Driven by energy storage, the demand in the peak season is strong, and the social inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downside space is limited. The market will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the driving force of anti - involution policies [10]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon - In September, the industrial silicon output was 412,031 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month. The weekly production remained at a high level, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. There is no obvious driving force for industrial silicon, and the market should be regarded as oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [10]. 3.4.6 Polysilicon - In September, the polysilicon output was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a start - up rate of 47.28%. The latest weekly inventory was 273,800 tons, remaining at a high level. The number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. The situation of high supply and low demand persists, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price while waiting for the further implementation of the stockpiling news [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US domestic oil product inventory decreased, and the distillate inventory had the largest decline since late June, while the Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. However, OPEC+ is increasing production, the US is expected to set a production record, and Russia's exports are approaching a 16 - month high. The bearish outlook from this year to next year is still strong. Later, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the overall surplus risk will gradually increase. The short - term spot still has some support, and it may maintain an interval - oscillation pattern under geopolitical risks [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The oil price rebounded from the bottom, driving the asphalt price to rebound. However, the peak - season demand is gradually passing, and the surplus pressure remains. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and the social inventory has not been significantly reduced, while the factory inventory has only been slightly reduced. The profit has recovered slightly recently, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. Later, the oil price will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When the asphalt inventory continues to be reduced limitedly, attention should be paid to the extent of its following the oil - price increase [11]. 3.5.3 PX - During the holiday, the change in PX was generally limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the polyester sector after the opening, and the crude - oil cost pricing support still exists. The small positive impact brought by the previous low - level start - up of devices and the increase in maintenance plans has basically been priced in. The PXN spread has recently decreased slightly to $218, and the PX outer - market price has fallen to $804. The short - term processing fee of PTA has been significantly squeezed. PX is still in a tight pattern, but the recent decline in the polyester sector as a whole may lead to a weak - oscillation trend, with some support below [13]. 3.5.4 PTA - The peak - season demand was still below expectations, terminal orders were sluggish, and the start - up rates of looms were still lower than in previous years. The reduction and shutdown of leading PTA manufacturers under low processing fees were disproven, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later. Later, the restart of maintenance devices may be delayed. There is still some support at the previous low. However, in the short term, with a large increase in short positions by funds, if the crude - oil price does not fluctuate significantly, the futures price still has long - term downward pressure [13]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price maintained low - level oscillation. The downstream demand faces similar problems as PTA. Coupled with the currently high start - up rate and the pressure of new production capacity, although the current inventory is already low, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later, and the medium - term rebound height is limited. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with a limited amplitude. The increase in the short - fiber start - up rate has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction requires the continuous improvement of terminal orders to drive the increase in the start - up rate. Currently, the subsequent upside space may be limited. In the medium term, short - fiber should follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The inland methanol market oscillated narrowly. After the holiday, methanol inventory accumulated, and the high port inventory suppressed the price. There is no effective inventory - reduction path in the short term, but supported by the expectation of domestic and foreign gas restrictions, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for the opportunity to lay out long positions in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.5.8 PP - The market price slightly recovered. The supply - side pressure of PP is prominent, downstream demand is average, inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and coupled with the weak crude - oil price, the price is expected to be under pressure [13]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price increased slightly. Supply increased, and it is the peak - demand season. The short - term supply - demand situation is okay, but inventory accumulation after the holiday will have some suppression on the price. With the commissioning of devices, the transition to the off - season of demand, and the downward shift of the crude - oil price center, it is expected that there is still room for the PE price to fall [13]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT market closed at 1012.00, up 3.00 or 0.30% (settlement price 1012.25). After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming soybean imports from the US. If a phased arrangement is reached in the following weeks, the possibility of resuming soybean trade will increase. In addition, if the MFP plan is implemented, it will reduce farmers' grain - holding costs, relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, and be beneficial to CBOT soybeans [14]. 3.6.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected gap in the domestic soybean supply - demand in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is bearish for soybean meal. In the short term, the short - term restocking of soybean meal may increase, and as the pressure of the concentrated listing of US soybeans eases and remains stable, the cost support for the near - month soybean meal is also expected to strengthen. However, as the risk of the far - month gap decreases, the spread between months may widen. For rapeseed meal, the import of rapeseed meal has shrunk significantly due to seasonal impacts, and domestic rapeseed inventory is exhausted. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and soybean meal dominates its main market [14]. 3.6.3 Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the accelerating reduction of rapeseed oil inventory will form support; palm oil is cost - dominated, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude - oil prices, and the strength of related oils providing additional support; soybean oil may have phased inventory accumulation due to the post - holiday demand gap, and the price may be relatively weak [15]. 3.6.4 Corn - During the holiday, the corn market in Northeast China continued to decline. After the holiday, the space for a further slight decline in the new corn in the Northeast may be limited. On the one hand, the increase in the corn price in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, the number of arriving vehicles decreased, and the acquisition demand increased; on the other hand, more acquisition entities will start to enter the market to purchase grain after the holiday. In addition, the wheat price rebounded rapidly in October. Although the wheat purchase at the support price has ended, the supply pressure of wheat has significantly decreased due to the previous accelerated grain sales. It is expected that the wheat price will continue to rise after the holiday, which will also provide support for the corn market [15]. 3.6.5 Pigs - During the holiday, the pig price continued to decline. After the holiday, demand will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork stockpiling dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed announced an expected interest rate cut, the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data was lower than expected, but short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks and precious metals may be short - term bullish, while bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals are expected to be short - term volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Global Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected but hinted at no rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to rebound sharply, and global risk appetite to increase [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. Domestic risk appetite increased due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position recommendation. Bonds are also expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see approach. Among commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see stance; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at high levels, with a cautious long - position recommendation [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined due to the drag of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals**: China's economic data was lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing down. Policy support was provided by measures to expand service consumption. Short - term external risk uncertainty decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. The market is focused on domestic incremental policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Thursday, with low trading volume. After the Fed's interest rate cut, some funds left the market. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, with rebar consumption rising and hot - rolled coil consumption falling. Supply decreased slightly. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore declined slightly on Thursday. There were rumors of production restrictions, and the increase in molten iron production was limited. Supply remained high, and port inventories decreased slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the price of silicon iron was supported by electricity costs and other factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash declined from a high on Thursday. Supply increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. Demand was stable but weak. The price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term policy and news risks [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass declined from a high on Thursday. Supply was stable, and demand growth was limited. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices, along with tax policy impacts and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices fell but were supported above the 20 - day moving average. The recent price increase was due to interest rate cut expectations and the spill - over effect of copper price increases, but the fundamentals are weak, with increasing inventories and limited demand recovery [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight ore supply, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with upside pressure [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Thursday. Supply and demand both increased, and inventories decreased. The market is expected to be slightly bullish, with attention to the upper pressure range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Thursday. With polysilicon and coking coal at high levels, it is expected to be slightly bullish [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined on Thursday. Spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased, and policy expectations remained strong. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: President Trump's remarks weakened market confidence in sanctions against Russia, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on market sentiment was limited. The price is expected to be supported and range - bound, with market focus on sanctions and geopolitics [13]. - **Asphalt**: After a slight decline in oil prices, asphalt rebounded and stabilized. The upside is limited, and it may be range - bound at a low level due to potential inventory accumulation and falling oil prices [14]. - **PX**: The PX price was stable, and the previous positive factors were mostly priced in. The PXN spread decreased slightly, and it is expected to be range - bound, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: Downstream开工率 remained at 91.4%, with limited terminal demand recovery. PTA processing fees were squeezed, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It remained stable and volatile, but downstream demand was weak. With potential new device production and limited export orders, it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: It followed the polyester sector and rebounded slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upside is limited [15]. - **Methanol**: The port price declined, and the inventory increased. Although the fundamentals improved marginally, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price declined. Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply remained abundant. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. US soybean export sales were better than expected, but crop ratings were falling, and the final yield estimate may be adjusted downward. The market maintains a cautious optimistic attitude [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve in late September and October, and the price center of gravity may rise [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT November soybean oil contract declined. Domestic soybean crushing is high, and soybean oil supply is sufficient. Canola oil inventories are decreasing, and the market sentiment is strong during the seasonal sales peak [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. Domestic demand is weakening, and inventories are increasing. Although there are concerns about production in Malaysia, the upside is limited [19]. - **Corn**: The prices in the northern ports and Northeast production areas rebounded slightly, while the prices of new corn in North China continued to decline but at a slower pace. New grain is expected to be listed in large quantities from mid - October to November, with a downward price expectation. The futures contract has strong support [19]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices reached a new low this year. Supply is abundant, and demand is stable. The rebound space in late September is limited [20].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the easing of trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. In China, although May exports were slightly lower than expected, the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; different commodity sectors also have corresponding trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Global and Domestic Situation**: Overseas, the hope of easing trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data alleviated concerns about an impending economic slowdown, increasing global risk appetite. In China, May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - **Asset Performance and Suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Among commodities, black commodities are expected to rebound at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be long; precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to be long [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, football concepts, and rare earths, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly [4]. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The market's trading logic mainly focuses on changes in US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold rose slightly due to the weakening dollar, and silver maintained a strong upward trend. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: May's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there were concerns in employment data. The ISM manufacturing PMI was at a low level, and inflation expectations remained high, accumulating stagflation risks. There is still uncertainty in the trade situation. Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch-up growth, and the gold-silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Pay attention to the weekly CPI price index to judge the Fed's policy path [5]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the new round of China-US trade negotiations brought the possibility of easing global trade tensions. The market is also closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rose slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Demand has recovered to a certain extent, but the recovery amplitude is still limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the futures structure has weakened following the spot. Inventory destocking has stagnated recently, and it is advisable to continue to follow the high-level fluctuations of crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's start-up has increased slightly recently, and the demand for PX will increase in the future. The supply pattern will remain tight, but the PX price has declined recently, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - **PTA**: The basis of PTA remains high, but the monthly spread has declined significantly. The supply of the upstream of the polyester end will increase in the short term, and the pattern of downstream load reduction is unlikely to change. The basis has probably reached a stage high recently [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol has not been significantly destocked, and the cost pricing logic still exerts pressure on the futures market. The supply of ethylene glycol will increase significantly in the future, and the downstream start-up has decreased month-on-month. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern recently [8]. - **Short Fiber**: Short fiber generally maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The recovery speed of terminal orders is significantly lower than expected, and the price of short fiber has begun to weaken. It is expected to continue to operate weakly and volatile in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol at the port maintains a volatile trend, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory in the inland and at the port has increased simultaneously. It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the price still has room to decline in the medium and long term [8]. - **PP**: The domestic market quotation of PP is mainly stable, and the inventory has increased after the holiday. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure and the center of gravity will move down [9]. - **LLDPE**: The price of the polyethylene market has been adjusted, and the inventory has increased. The production expectation suppresses the price, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China-US negotiation has entered a deep stage, and it is difficult to exceed expectations greatly. The copper mine supply is relatively tight, but the production of electrolytic copper is at a high level. The demand is approaching the off-season, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline significantly, but the market expectation is weak. The demand may weaken marginally, and the inventory destocking will slow down or even accumulate [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight in the domestic real market, and the production rate has declined. The demand is in the off-season, and the inventory has decreased. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and the tin price is expected to continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [12]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the net selling of CBOT grain commodity funds increased. The meteorological conditions in the US soybean producing areas are good, and the sowing progress is fast. The USDA's June supply and demand report may have a neutral impact on the market. Pay attention to the end-of-month report on the estimated soybean planting area [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: China's soybean imports in May increased significantly year-on-year. The pressure of concentrated arrivals of domestic imports has been realized, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been quickly repaired. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal lack a stable upward driving force [13][14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The opening of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybean oil has continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market has increased. Pay attention to changes in China-Canada trade policies [15]. - **Palm Oil**: The energy market is under pressure to decline in the medium and long term, and the external油脂 market is under pressure. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the inventory is low. The inventory has increased slightly recently [15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the incremental supply of group farms and the expectation of weight reduction and pressure release in the market are gradually realized, pig prices may continue to be weakly adjusted. There may be a supplementary increase in the near-month contract [16]. - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by wheat policies and is quoted strongly. The short-term upward pressure on the spot and futures prices still exists, but after the wheat harvest, the corn demand will return, and it is still an easy-to-rise and difficult-to-fall market [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]