研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易紧张局势缓解，全球风险偏好整体升温 明道雨 刘慧峰 【宏观】 海外方面，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议今日将继续进行，市场对贸易紧 张局势缓解的希望，以及美国非农就业数据好于预期，缓解了市场对经济即将放 缓的担忧，全球风险偏好整体升温。国内方面，中国 5 月出口略低于预期，但贸 易顺差高于预期，短期净出口对于经济的拉动增强，短期有助于提振国内风险偏 好；此外，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议今日将继续进行，贸易谈判释放积极信号， 短期提振国内 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@q ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].