Core Viewpoint - The consumer loan interest rates have dropped below 3%, with some small and medium-sized banks even offering rates as low as 2.4% due to a price war aimed at expanding market share [2] Group 1: Consumer Loan Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in consumer loan rates has led to significant issues, including a widening interest rate gap between consumer loans and mortgage loans, creating arbitrage opportunities [2] - As of February 2025, the average minimum executable interest rate for online consumer loans from national banks is 2.91%, down 7 basis points month-on-month and 28 basis points year-on-year, while the average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers is around 3.3% [2] - The disparity in interest rates has led to misuse of consumer loans for purchasing real estate or stock trading, which does not stimulate consumption as intended and introduces risks due to mismatched loan terms [2] Group 2: Banking Sector Risks - The price war in consumer loans is increasing risks for banks, as their earnings primarily come from the interest rate spread between deposits and loans [3] - Consumer loans, being unsecured, are more prone to defaults, and with the shift of banks towards consumer loans due to a weak real estate market, the scale of consumer loans is growing alongside rising default rates [3] - By the end of 2024, the non-performing loan ratio for personal consumer loans at major banks has increased, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 2.39%, Agricultural Bank of China at 1.55%, and China Construction Bank at a rise of 0.23% [3] Group 3: Interest Rate and Profitability Concerns - The net interest margin for commercial banks has fallen to 1.52%, which is 28 basis points below the regulatory warning line of 1.8%, indicating unprecedented pressure on profitability [4] - With declining net interest margins and rising non-performing loans, banks are facing challenges in maintaining profitability while providing consumer financial services [5] - The pricing of consumer loans needs to balance risk and return, as excessively high rates could lead to moral hazards, while low rates may not effectively stimulate consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chinese bank stocks improved in Q4 2024, with a preference for the four major state-owned banks due to their lower risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and less impact from fixed income market fluctuations [1][6]. Group 1: Profitability and Growth - In Q4 2024, operating profit and profit growth accelerated to 6.8% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a reduced narrowing of net interest margin (NIM) and strong growth in non-interest income [2]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to investment income, while fee income remained flat with a decline of 3% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality - Retail loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by 18 basis points year-on-year, while corporate loan NPL ratio decreased by 15 basis points [3]. - The proportion of retail loans in the loan portfolio decreased from approximately 34% in 2023 to about 33% in 2024, with the overall NPL ratio declining from 90% in 2023 to 81% in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For FY 2025, revenue growth is expected to moderately improve compared to FY 2024, with a smaller narrowing of NIM anticipated despite a further expected decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) [4]. - Fee income is expected to improve in 2025 as capital market and consumer-related fees recover, although retail asset quality may continue to deteriorate [4]. Group 4: Preferred and Avoided Stocks - The preferred order of banks is the four major state-owned banks > China Merchants Bank > CITIC Bank > other banks, with China Construction Bank being the top pick due to stable earnings and a strong balance sheet [6]. - The banks to avoid include Ping An Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China due to their higher risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and significant asset quality risks [6].

2024 年末交通银行总资产达 到 14.90 万亿元 ，同比增长 5.98% ；当年实现营业收入 2598.26 亿元 ，同比增长 0.87% ；实现净利润 942.29 亿元 ，同比增长 1.05% 。 交通银行规模类指标均保持正增长（ 2022 年营业收入有重述，因此 2023 年保持正增长）。但纵向 看， 近五年来 2024 年交通银行主要规模类指标增速最低。 交通银行 2024 年主要规模类经营指标与其他五家大行对比如下表： 从收入结构看，利息净收入是交通银行营业收入的最主要构成部分。 2024 年利息净收入占其营业 收入的 65.36% （近五年来占比均超过 60% ） 。 净息差和净利差则持续走低。在主要依靠利息收入的背景下， 持续走势的净息差 / 净利差是交通 银行近年来业务增速乏力的主要顽疾。 与其他五大行相比，交通银行 2024 年规模类指标增速也相对较慢 。 总资产方面，交通银行 2024 年末总资产增速在 六大行 中仅略高于建行，与其他四家大行 8% 以上 的增速相比落后 2 个百分点以上。 营业收入方面，六大行中除已经连续 3 年营业收入负增长的工行和建行外，交通银行 2024 年营 ...

每经记者 张寿林 每经编辑 马子卿 负债方面，近年来民生银行通过深耕客户，获取高质量负债的成效逐步显现，存款付息率持续下降。各 项存款中，个人存款较上年末增加918亿元，占比提升2.4个百分点；活期存款较上年末增加1275亿元， 占比提升3.2个百分点。同时，存款付息率降幅持续扩大，2024年存款付息率2.14%，较上年下降17个 BP，下半年环比再下降20个BP。 "民生银行2024年下半年息差环比提升，带动营业收入下半年环比增长，主要是受益于负债成本的有效 管控和资产结构的不断优化。"民生银行副行长李彬表示，预计2025年银行业净息差仍将承压，该行将 积极应对形势变化，着力通过客户基础扩大，核心主营业务增长，力求推动净息差和营业收入变化优于 市场平均表现，并在此基础上力争营业收入总量保持平稳。 民生银行董事长高迎欣说，2021年以来，该行持续深化民企战略，升级服务模式，更加强调为客户创造 价值，成为民营企业的首选银行，尤其是携手他们穿越经济周期。 4月1日下午，民生银行以网络直播的形式召开2024年度业绩交流会。此前公布的年报显示，2024年末民 生银行集团资产总额7.81万亿元，较上年末增长1.82%， ...

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a focus on maintaining a stable dividend payout and adjusting agency fee rates to alleviate profit pressure [4]. Financial Performance - For 2024, PSBC's total revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.2%. The net interest income grew by 1.5%, and non-interest income saw a significant recovery with a 3.2% increase [1]. - The year-end non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose by 4 basis points (bps) to 0.90%, with a year-to-date increase of 7 bps. The provision coverage ratio decreased by 16 percentage points to 286% [1]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Retail loans showed strong growth despite weak demand, with total loans increasing by 9.4% year-on-year and a quarterly growth of 1.5%. Corporate, bill, and retail loans grew by 13.5%, 6.1%, and 6.7% respectively [2]. - Total deposits increased by 9.5%, making PSBC the only major state-owned bank to achieve a year-on-year increase. The proportion of demand deposits rose slightly to 27.1% [2]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin for the year was 1.87%, down 14 bps year-on-year, with a decline of 2 bps from the previous quarter. The loan yield decreased by 11 bps, primarily due to a drop in personal loan rates [2][3]. - The deposit cost rate decreased to 1.44%, down 4 bps from the previous half-year and 9 bps year-on-year, with personal time deposit costs dropping by 17 bps [2]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The year-end NPL ratio increased slightly, reflecting retail risk pressures, with a new NPL generation rate of 0.84% for the year. The new NPL generation rate for personal loans rose to 1.36% [3]. - The quality of corporate loans remained strong, with the NPL ratio for real estate corporate loans at 1.94%, down 31 bps from the previous half-year [3]. Agency Fee Rate Adjustment - PSBC has proactively adjusted its agency fee rates, which is expected to enhance profitability. The comprehensive agency fee rate is projected to decrease from 1.15% to 1.04%, resulting in a reduction of agency fee expenses by CNY 11.5 billion for 2024 [3]. Investment Outlook - The bank maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% based on net profit, with attractive valuations and high dividend yields expected for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The bank's 2024 total revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 0.2%. Interest income grew by 1.5%, while non-interest income saw a 3.2% increase. Investment income helped mitigate the decline in middle-income revenue [2][6]. - The bank's loan growth was 9.4% for the year, with retail products showing positive growth despite weak demand. Deposits increased by 9.5% [2][6]. - The net interest margin for the year was 1.87%, down 14 basis points year-on-year, while the deposit cost rate decreased by 9 basis points to 1.44%, expected to remain the lowest in the industry [2][6]. - The year-end non-performing loan ratio rose by 4 basis points to 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 16 percentage points to 286% [2][6]. - The bank announced an active adjustment plan for savings agency fees, which is expected to effectively release future profits, estimating a reduction of 4.7% in pre-tax profit for 2025 due to a decrease in agency fee expenses by 4.5 billion yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's total revenue was 348.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.5 billion yuan. Interest income was 286.1 billion yuan, and non-interest income was 25.3 billion yuan [27]. - The bank's total loans grew to 8.7 trillion yuan, with retail loans showing a growth rate of 9.4% [27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at year-end was 0.90%, with a new generation rate of 0.84% for the year. The provision coverage ratio was 286% [2][6]. - The bank's asset quality indicators remained strong despite some fluctuations in retail risk pressures [2][6]. Fee Adjustment Impact - The active adjustment of savings agency fees is projected to save 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 4.5 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing pre-tax profit by 4.7% [21][22]. - The comprehensive savings agency fee rate is expected to decrease from 1.15% to 1.04% following the adjustments [21][22]. Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 5.7% for H-shares [2][6]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated at 0.58x for A-shares and 0.51x for H-shares, indicating a low valuation with high dividend yield advantages [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 26.01 CNY over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 0.66% for 2024, with a pre-provision profit growth of 1.24% and a net profit growth of 0.12%. The fourth quarter saw a significant year-on-year net profit growth of 16.85%, primarily supported by the release of provisions, although tax increases and narrowing interest margins negatively impacted performance [1][10]. - The asset growth remained stable, with total assets increasing by 3.44% year-on-year by the end of 2024. Total loans grew by 5.05%, although corporate loan growth was weak [1][2]. - The bank's net interest margin for the fourth quarter was measured at 1.76%, showing a decline compared to previous periods. The yield on interest-earning assets decreased to 3.62% [3][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of 212.226 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight increase in net interest income [13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 77.205 billion CNY, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.12% year-on-year [13][10]. Asset and Liability Management - By the end of 2024, the total deposits increased by 7.69%, with retail deposits making up 28.28% of total loans. The trend towards more stable deposits was noted, with a decrease in the proportion of time deposits [2][9]. - The bank's loan structure improved, with corporate loans growing by 8.76% year-on-year, although the fourth quarter saw a decrease in new corporate loans [2][10]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin is under pressure, with a forecasted decline in 2025 expected to be similar to 2024. The bank is focusing on managing deposit costs to stabilize the interest margin [3][10]. - Non-interest income decreased by 4.39% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, primarily due to declines in credit card and agency business revenues [9][10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.07% by the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 237.78%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [9][10]. - The bank's credit quality is expected to improve gradually, with risks from local government bonds and credit cards anticipated to stabilize [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with expectations, showing slight growth in net profit while experiencing declines in pre-provision profit and operating income [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue and profit growth rates are recovering, with net profit, pre-provision profit, and operating income showing increases of 0.3 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 1.3 percentage points respectively compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Net interest income decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, attributed to accelerated asset growth and stabilized interest margins [2] - Net fee income fell by 8.3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in growth rate by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating a recovery in the middle-income business [2] - Other non-interest income grew by 9.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased from 17.5% in the previous three quarters due to a decline in investment income [2] Credit and Asset Management - The company focused credit allocation on key sectors, with total assets and loans growing by 9.2% and 8.8% year-on-year respectively, showing an increase in total asset growth compared to the previous three quarters [2] - Loan growth in key areas such as manufacturing, technological innovation, green finance, inclusive finance, and agriculture remained robust [2] Liability Cost and Interest Margin - The company's net interest margin for 2024 is 1.42%, showing a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to the previous three quarters; the fourth quarter net interest margin was 1.34%, down 4 basis points from the third quarter [3] - The yield on interest-earning assets was 2.95%, down 5 basis points from the third quarter, while the yield on interest-bearing liabilities was 1.80%, down 1 basis point [3] - The optimization of liability costs has slowed the decline in interest margins [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains largely unchanged, with the current A-share price corresponding to 0.6 times P/B for 2025 and 2026, and H-share price corresponding to 0.5 times and 0.4 times P/B for the same years [4] - The target price for A-shares is maintained at 8.67 yuan, representing a 26.1% upside potential based on a 0.8 times P/B for 2025 and 0.7 times for 2026 [4] - The target price for H-shares is maintained at 7.11 HKD, indicating a 29.5% upside potential based on a 0.6 times P/B for 2025 and 0.5 times for 2026 [4]

2024年末，兴业银行总资产站稳10万亿元台阶，达到10.51万亿元。过去三年，该行总资产接连跨过8万亿元、9万 亿元、10万亿元三个台阶，较2021年末增长22.14%，年化增长率为6.89%。 其中，贷款规模、存款规模双双突破5万亿元大关，分别为5.74万亿元、5.53万亿元，较2021年末增长29.55%、 28.33%。 吕家进表示，做好市值管理需要内外兼修。从外部来看，要增强信心，银行业是典型的顺周期行业，一家银行规 模越大，与宏观经济的联系就越密切。当下，中国经济转型发展迎来积极变化，市场信心增强了，兴业银行做好 市值管理上就有了好的大环境。 在经历了2023年营收、净利润双降的低谷之后，2024年，兴业银行业绩反转，实现"双增"。 该行2024年年度业绩报告显示，报告期内，该行实现营业收入2122.26亿元，同比增长0.66%；实现归属净利润 772.05亿元，同比增长0.12%。 对于市场关注的净息差问题，截至报告期末，兴业银行净息差为1.82%，同比下降11BP，降幅收窄，处于同业较 好水平。 3月28日，在2024年年度业绩说明会上，兴业银行董事长吕家进提到，我国经济正经历前所未有的深刻转 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.30 CNY, maintaining the current rating [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady improvement in profitability and asset quality, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 2.56% for 2024 [2][4]. - The net interest income has seen a decline of 3.77% year-on-year, but the non-interest income has increased by 15.87%, indicating a shift in revenue structure [2][10]. - The average yield on interest-earning assets has decreased to 3.34%, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities has improved to 2.12%, supporting the stability of net interest margins [14][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 630.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.16% [2][4]. - The net interest income for 2024 was 448.9 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.77% [2][10]. - Non-interest income reached 181.2 billion CNY, showing a significant growth of 15.87% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company's net profit for 2024 was 237.8 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [2][4]. Asset and Liability Management - As of the end of 2024, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 33.91 trillion CNY, growing by 3.4% from the first half of 2024 and 4.7% year-on-year [3][21]. - The interest-bearing liabilities reached 30.3 trillion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [21][25]. - The structure of interest-bearing liabilities is primarily composed of deposits (78.8%), existing bonds (6.8%), interbank liabilities (10.8%), and borrowings from the central bank (3.7%) [21][25]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased to 1.25% by the end of 2024, down 2 basis points from the previous year [27][30]. - The loan provision coverage ratio stands at 200.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9 percentage points [29][30]. - The overdue loan ratio recorded at 1.19%, indicating a slight increase from the previous half-year [27][30].