Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. debt rating due to the increasing deficit, rising debt interest, and declining debt affordability, which has led to significant market volatility in U.S. stocks and bonds [1][2][6] Group 1: Reasons for Downgrade - The downgrade was primarily driven by the expansion of the U.S. deficit and anticipated increases in debt interest payments, with Moody's projecting the federal deficit to reach nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024 [2] - The backdrop of the downgrade includes rising U.S. Treasury yields since 2021, which have contributed to a decrease in debt affordability [2] - The potential passage of Trump's tax cut plan, which could exacerbate the deficit, is also a significant factor in the downgrade [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, there was a brief but significant fluctuation in U.S. stocks and bonds on May 19, which was later stabilized by remarks from U.S. government and Federal Reserve officials [1][6] - Historical data indicates that sovereign rating downgrades have a more pronounced short-term negative impact on U.S. stocks, lasting about 1-2 weeks, while the long-term U.S. Treasury yields experience only temporary effects [5] Group 3: Legislative Developments - On May 19, Trump's tax cut plan passed the House Budget Committee vote, with expectations of further legislative progress, which could intensify fiscal pressures [3][6] - The tax cut plan includes measures that would permanently reduce personal income taxes and extend estate tax exemptions, contributing to an estimated $3.8 trillion increase in the deficit by 2034 [3]

金十数据5月21日讯，美国总统特朗普周二向国会的共和党同僚施压，要求他们团结一致支持一项全面 的减税法案，但显然他未能说服少数坚持己见的共和党人，他们仍有可能阻止这项涵盖了特朗普大部分 国内议程的一揽子方案。在国会山举行的一次闭门会议上，特朗普直白地警告众议院共和党议员别想进 一步改动这项庞大的法案。他强烈警告不要再增加人们获得Medicaid补助的难度。据一位不愿透露姓名 的在场人士称，特朗普对共和党人说："不要在Medicaid上瞎胡闹。"特朗普还劝阻共和党人不要寻求进 一步减免州和地方税。但这个议题对加州和纽约州等高税负州的温和派共和党人来说尤其重要。 特朗普当面施压也无效，部分众院共和党议员对税收法案仍持保留态度 ...

特朗普减税法案陷僵局，共和党内讧，"地方税扣除"吵翻天。 黄金涨穿3300美元，美国原油涨超2%，报道称以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施。 中国4月黄金进口猛增73%，创11个月新高。 报道：日本考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。印美讨论"三阶段"贸易协议，预计在7月初前 达成临时协议。 高盛预测欧美谈判：基准情形是"谈不拢"，欧美"适度加税"。 马斯克：至少再干五年特斯拉CEO除非"去世"，不会再大把砸钱掺和选举，6月底Robotaxi登陆得 州奥斯汀，xAI将继续向英伟达和AMD买芯片。 谷歌I/O开发者大会：发布最强大通用模型，智能体进驻浏览、搜索及Gemini，全新AI模式搜索来 了。 辉瑞60.5亿美元押注三生制药，医药股全线爆发。 达利欧：美联储处境艰难，不应当降息，警告"不合适的降息"后果。 ...

Group 1 - Trump expressed well wishes for Biden's recovery following recent medical news [1] - Trump's tax cut proposal received approval from a key committee in the House, indicating potential passage later this week [1] - Trump criticized Harris for alleged illegal campaign contributions related to payments for entertainment during her presidential campaign, calling for an investigation [1] - The Trump Organization is exploring the construction of a Trump Tower in Ho Chi Minh City, with Eric Trump expected to visit Vietnam this week [1] Group 2 - A phone call between Trump and Putin is scheduled, focusing on the outcomes of recent talks regarding Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The Trump tax cut plan has received approval from a key committee in the House of Representatives, following a contentious debate that initially stalled its progress [1][2] - The plan passed with a narrow margin of 17 votes in favor and 16 against, with all Democrats voting no and four Republican members changing their votes to yes after negotiations [1] - House Speaker Johnson indicated that minor modifications to the plan are underway, and it is expected to be submitted for a full House vote later this week [1] Group 2 - The tax cut plan still needs to pass through the House Rules Committee and the full House, where Republicans hold a slim majority [2] - The budget committee chair confirmed that further modifications to the plan are likely before it reaches the full House vote, although specific details remain undisclosed [2] - The proposed reforms to the Medicaid program have been a contentious issue, with conservative members pushing for deeper structural changes while moderates express political risk concerns [2]

在美国共和党强硬派放弃反对后，特朗普减税法案在众议院获得推进。 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, resulting in the loss of the highest rating from all three major rating agencies [1][12] - The downgrade coincides with the critical phase of Trump's tax cut plan and a budget impasse [1][12] - The report from GF Securities indicates that the uncertainty surrounding the tax cut plan and the 2026 fiscal budget may not lead to significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market [1][13] Group 2 - The 2025 fiscal budget remains unresolved, with Congress relying on continuing resolutions until the end of September [2] - The House and Senate have set ambitious tax cut and debt ceiling increase targets, with the House proposing a $4.5 trillion tax cut and $2 trillion in spending cuts over ten years [2][4] - The Senate's targets include a $3.8 trillion tax cut and a $1.2 trillion spending cut, with a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling [4] Group 3 - The proposed tax cut plan aims to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, potentially increasing the average tax burden on ordinary taxpayers by 22% if not passed [5] - The 2026 fiscal budget proposal indicates that non-defense discretionary spending will decrease by over $160 billion (23%) compared to 2025 [5][9] - Significant cuts are expected in various departments, including a 56% reduction in the National Science Foundation and a 54% cut in the Environmental Protection Agency [8] Group 4 - Historical experience suggests that while rating adjustments may lead to short-term bond yield increases and stock market volatility, the mid-term impact is likely to be limited [13] - Current economic data in the U.S. shows resilience, with no clear signs of recession in consumer spending or durable goods orders [15]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise significantly according to President Trump, indicating a positive outlook for market changes [1] - The U.S. government is considering allowing the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, which could enhance technological capabilities in the region [2] - A historic tax cut bill is anticipated to pass through Congress, which is expected to act as a catalyst for a significant economic boost in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - President Trump secured a $600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, marking a substantial agreement in energy, defense, and mining sectors [1] - The U.S. plans to sell nearly $142 billion worth of weapons to Saudi Arabia, highlighting a major defense cooperation agreement [1] - The Trump administration has taken steps to restore normal relations with Syria, including the termination of sanctions, which may impact geopolitical dynamics in the region [2]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Policies - The US and China acknowledged substantial progress in trade talks, with a return to pre-April 2 tariff statuses and an additional 10% tariff on equal terms[5] - Both parties expressed a desire to avoid economic decoupling, with the US seeking balanced trade and China showing willingness to increase imports from the US[5] - The establishment of a trade communication mechanism aims to reduce misunderstandings and ensure regular exchanges between working groups[5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Outlook - The suspension of the tariff war for three months is expected to maintain high export growth, potentially shifting towards mid and high-end industries[6] - The 10% basic tariff will significantly increase the burden on US consumers, with estimated taxable imports rising from $380 billion in Trump's first term to $2.5 trillion in the second term, a 6.6-fold increase[7] - The basic tariff could generate additional revenue of approximately 0.5% of GDP, partially offsetting the current federal deficit rate of 6.7%[7] Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The focus may shift to new tax reduction proposals post-summer, which could be more lenient than the 2017 version, combining tariffs with tax cuts for households and businesses[8] - The likelihood of a US recession within the year has decreased, although inflation may rise due to the basic tariff, potentially prolonging the current interest rate levels by the Federal Reserve[8] - The overall market sentiment has shifted from neutral to cautiously optimistic in the short term, with a stable outlook for domestic capital markets[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of Shanghai lead may rebound slightly in the short - term due to inventory reduction, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. Subsequently, it will decline from high levels due to demand. It is recommended to adopt a "high - short" trading strategy and pay attention to the new impacts brought by tax policy changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,970 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,977.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead position is 69,335 lots, down 3,470 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,944 lots, down 181 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,961 tons, up 1,995 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,504 tons, up 2,718 tons; the LME lead inventory is 251,800 tons, down 1,625 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is 5.95 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 15,929 yuan, down 250 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,690 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.51%, down 1.68 percentage points. The weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, down 600 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,121.43 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,690.39 points, up 42.4 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barriers; Trump signed an executive order to reduce drug prices and threatened car tariffs on non - price - reducing countries; US tariff revenue in April surged 130% year - on - year to 16 billion dollars. The Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and still believes tariffs will have a significant impact. Trump announced a "grand tax - cut bill" proposing a 4 - trillion - dollar tax cut over ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 4 trillion dollars, and not mentioning a tax increase on millionaires [2]