美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的1.8%增长预测非常保守。 我们将实现超过3%的增长。 白宫经济委员会主任Hassett：如果我们实现3%的增长，特朗普的减税法案就能自我覆盖成本。 ...

美国众议院议长约翰逊：计划今日就减税法案进行投票。 ...

金十数据整理：特朗普过去24小时都忙了什么？（2025-05-21） 1. 要求保持通讯网络领域领导地位——特朗普表示：我们必须保持我们在WiFi、5G和6G领域的全球领 导地位，让每个美国人都能连接到世界上最好的网络，同时保证每个人的安全。我们可以同时做这两件 事。最重要的是，我将释放大量的频谱用于拍卖。 2. 官宣"黄金穹顶"防御计划——特朗普官宣"黄金穹顶"防御计划，称穹顶应该在其任期结束前投入使 用，已为该系统选定设计方案和负责人。特朗普还表示，国会的法案将包括250亿美元用于黄金穹顶系 统，总预算将达到1750亿美元。 3. 希望内塔尼亚胡结束冲突——两名白宫官员透露，特朗普对加沙正在进行的冲突感到沮丧，他指示其 助手告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，他希望内塔尼亚胡结束这场冲突。 4. 当面施压共和党人支持税收法案——特朗普周二向国会的共和党同僚施压，要求他们团结一致支持一 项全面的减税法案，但显然他未能说服少数坚持己见的共和党人，他们仍有可能阻止这项涵盖了特朗普 大部分国内议程的一揽子方案。此前特朗普曾表示：不通过税收法案的替代方案就是大幅增税。 5. 任命驻罗马尼亚大使——特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交 ...

Core Points - The article discusses President Trump's push for a comprehensive tax reform bill aimed at extending tax cuts and significantly reducing government spending, amidst internal conflicts within the Republican Party [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Reform Bill Details - The proposed bill will extend personal income tax cuts, increase the standard deduction and child tax credit, and reduce taxes on tips and overtime pay, aligning with Trump's 2024 campaign promises [2]. - The legislation will also increase military and border security spending while cutting billions from Medicaid and clean energy tax credits [2]. - The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CFRB) estimates that the bill will increase U.S. national debt by over $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2]. Group 2: Internal Party Conflicts - The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House, making it crucial for Trump to manage dissent among party members to pass the bill [1]. - There is ongoing contention between hardline conservatives and moderates regarding issues such as climate tax credits and state and local tax deductions [1][3]. - Some Republican members have expressed concerns that the proposed tax cuts primarily benefit wealthier individuals in blue states, potentially increasing the deficit [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Investors are wary of the proposed tax reform, raising questions about the sustainability of U.S. public finances and the willingness of global markets to fund Washington's debt [2][4]. - The CFRB projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 100% to a record 125%, with annual deficits increasing from approximately 6.4% to 6.9% of GDP by 2024 [4]. - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has led to rising long-term Treasury yields, indicating increased borrowing costs for the government [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. debt rating due to the increasing deficit, rising debt interest, and declining debt affordability, which has led to significant market volatility in U.S. stocks and bonds [1][2][6] Group 1: Reasons for Downgrade - The downgrade was primarily driven by the expansion of the U.S. deficit and anticipated increases in debt interest payments, with Moody's projecting the federal deficit to reach nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024 [2] - The backdrop of the downgrade includes rising U.S. Treasury yields since 2021, which have contributed to a decrease in debt affordability [2] - The potential passage of Trump's tax cut plan, which could exacerbate the deficit, is also a significant factor in the downgrade [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, there was a brief but significant fluctuation in U.S. stocks and bonds on May 19, which was later stabilized by remarks from U.S. government and Federal Reserve officials [1][6] - Historical data indicates that sovereign rating downgrades have a more pronounced short-term negative impact on U.S. stocks, lasting about 1-2 weeks, while the long-term U.S. Treasury yields experience only temporary effects [5] Group 3: Legislative Developments - On May 19, Trump's tax cut plan passed the House Budget Committee vote, with expectations of further legislative progress, which could intensify fiscal pressures [3][6] - The tax cut plan includes measures that would permanently reduce personal income taxes and extend estate tax exemptions, contributing to an estimated $3.8 trillion increase in the deficit by 2034 [3]

金十数据5月21日讯，美国总统特朗普周二向国会的共和党同僚施压，要求他们团结一致支持一项全面 的减税法案，但显然他未能说服少数坚持己见的共和党人，他们仍有可能阻止这项涵盖了特朗普大部分 国内议程的一揽子方案。在国会山举行的一次闭门会议上，特朗普直白地警告众议院共和党议员别想进 一步改动这项庞大的法案。他强烈警告不要再增加人们获得Medicaid补助的难度。据一位不愿透露姓名 的在场人士称，特朗普对共和党人说："不要在Medicaid上瞎胡闹。"特朗普还劝阻共和党人不要寻求进 一步减免州和地方税。但这个议题对加州和纽约州等高税负州的温和派共和党人来说尤其重要。 特朗普当面施压也无效，部分众院共和党议员对税收法案仍持保留态度 ...

特朗普减税法案陷僵局，共和党内讧，"地方税扣除"吵翻天。 黄金涨穿3300美元，美国原油涨超2%，报道称以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施。 中国4月黄金进口猛增73%，创11个月新高。 报道：日本考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。印美讨论"三阶段"贸易协议，预计在7月初前 达成临时协议。 高盛预测欧美谈判：基准情形是"谈不拢"，欧美"适度加税"。 马斯克：至少再干五年特斯拉CEO除非"去世"，不会再大把砸钱掺和选举，6月底Robotaxi登陆得 州奥斯汀，xAI将继续向英伟达和AMD买芯片。 谷歌I/O开发者大会：发布最强大通用模型，智能体进驻浏览、搜索及Gemini，全新AI模式搜索来 了。 辉瑞60.5亿美元押注三生制药，医药股全线爆发。 达利欧：美联储处境艰难，不应当降息，警告"不合适的降息"后果。 ...

Group 1 - Trump expressed well wishes for Biden's recovery following recent medical news [1] - Trump's tax cut proposal received approval from a key committee in the House, indicating potential passage later this week [1] - Trump criticized Harris for alleged illegal campaign contributions related to payments for entertainment during her presidential campaign, calling for an investigation [1] - The Trump Organization is exploring the construction of a Trump Tower in Ho Chi Minh City, with Eric Trump expected to visit Vietnam this week [1] Group 2 - A phone call between Trump and Putin is scheduled, focusing on the outcomes of recent talks regarding Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The Trump tax cut plan has received approval from a key committee in the House of Representatives, following a contentious debate that initially stalled its progress [1][2] - The plan passed with a narrow margin of 17 votes in favor and 16 against, with all Democrats voting no and four Republican members changing their votes to yes after negotiations [1] - House Speaker Johnson indicated that minor modifications to the plan are underway, and it is expected to be submitted for a full House vote later this week [1] Group 2 - The tax cut plan still needs to pass through the House Rules Committee and the full House, where Republicans hold a slim majority [2] - The budget committee chair confirmed that further modifications to the plan are likely before it reaches the full House vote, although specific details remain undisclosed [2] - The proposed reforms to the Medicaid program have been a contentious issue, with conservative members pushing for deeper structural changes while moderates express political risk concerns [2]

在美国共和党强硬派放弃反对后，特朗普减税法案在众议院获得推进。 ...