Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3104 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose by 0.87%, closing at 14470 yuan/ton. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose by 1.53%, closing at 1044 cents/bushel [2]. - In the soybean meal market, the US soybean futures price rebounded strongly. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is ahead of previous years. The domestic soybean customs clearance is slow, leading to a regional imbalance in soybean meal supply and a sharp increase in spot prices. In the long - term, the M09 contract is expected to be bullish, but there is a risk of a rapid decline in the basis after the oil mills resume operation [19]. - In the live pig market, the supply side has an increase in the number of pigs for sale, but the concentration is not high. The demand side is generally normal after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is in a state of supply - demand stalemate, and the subsequent supply pressure is large, but the supply rhythm is highly uncertain [21]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes are 200 - 300 yuan/ton higher. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract rose 0.87%, closing at 14470 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs is 14.85 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 1.53% to 1044 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Main Producing Area Weather - In the United States, dry weather will help it recover from recent floods. In the next 10 - 15 days, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) may turn negative, bringing cold snaps to the northeast and east. The temperature in the Midwest and Southeast will drop by 8 - 12°F below normal. There will be night frosts in the Midwest in the next 5 days. Precipitation in major crop - producing areas will weaken in the next 10 days, but there may be more active rainfall in the South next weekend. The dry conditions in the next 10 days will help the Midwest, South, and Southeast recover from floods, but will not improve the soil moisture shortage in the Great Plains [4]. - The Rosario Exchange said that the weather may be unstable in the next few days with possible precipitation. Starting next week, the weather may enter a more favorable cycle, with drier conditions and less rainfall in the second half of April [5]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From April 5th to 11th, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 98.37 million tons, with an operating rate of 27.65%, 3.95 million tons lower than expected. It is expected that the operating rate will significantly recover from April 12th to 18th, with an estimated crushing volume of 127.02 million tons and an operating rate of 35.71% [6]. - On April 11th, the total soybean meal trading volume was 33.90 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 23.695 million tons, and the basis trading volume was 10.2 million tons. The soybean meal pick - up volume was 16.2 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons from the previous day [6]. - On April 14th, the import cost of US soybeans was 3885 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3711 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3780 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton [6]. - On April 14th, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises nationwide increased by 0.36% to 111,503 heads. The daily sales volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide increased by 3.79% [6][7]. - Private exporters reported the sale of 121,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, with 55,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/2025 season and 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [7]. - As of the week ending April 6th, Canada's rapeseed oil exports increased by 32.92% to 309,700 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to April 6th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed oil exports were 7.1756 million tons, a 76.24% increase compared to the same period of the previous year [7]. - NOPA member units' estimated soybean crushing volume in March 2025 is 197.602 million bushels. If realized, it will be an 11.1% increase from February and a 0.6% increase from March 2024, setting a record for March [7]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative incremental social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the broad - money (M2) balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a 7% year - on - year increase, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [8]. - The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation of the University of Michigan in the United States in April was 6.7%, higher than the expected 5.1% and the previous value of 5.00% [8]. 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs in different regions, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [11][13][16][17]. 5. Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has shown signs of loosening. Argentina's heavy rain has raised concerns about soybean production. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is ahead of previous years. The US soybean futures price has rebounded strongly, and the Brazilian soybean premium has declined but has limited downside. The domestic M09 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and be bullish in the long term. The slow customs clearance of soybeans at domestic ports has led to a regional imbalance in soybean meal supply and a sharp increase in spot prices. After the oil mills resume operation, the basis may decline rapidly [19]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply side has an increase in the number of pigs for sale, but the concentration is not high. The demand side is normal after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. The subsequent supply pressure is large, but the supply rhythm is highly uncertain [21].

Group 1: Economic Data - In the first quarter, China's RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with a notable credit structure and historically low loan rates supporting the real economy [1][6] - As of the end of March, the total social financing stock in China was 422.96 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 15.18 trillion yuan in the first quarter, which is 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][6] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 326.06 trillion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.6% [1][6] Group 2: Corporate Announcements - China Pacific Insurance expects a net profit of 11.652 billion to 13.445 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% to 50% [4] - Jiangling Motors plans to repurchase A-shares worth 150 million to 200 million yuan [4] - Infinitus intends to repurchase A-shares valued at 50 million to 100 million yuan [4] - Zhenyu Technology forecasts a net profit of 255 million yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 495.9% [4] Group 3: Trade and Transportation - In the first quarter, China's national railways transported 970 million tons of goods, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with an average of 179,000 cars loaded daily, up 4.2% [1][6] - The China Railway Chengdu Bureau Group announced the launch of a regular freight train service from Chengdu to Central Asia, which will run weekly starting April 13 [1][6]

4月13日，央行公布2025年3月以及一季度金融统计数据报告。 一、广义货币增长7% 3月末，广义货币(M2)余额326.06万亿元,同比增长7%。狭义货币(M1)余额113.49万亿元,同比增长 1.6%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.07万亿元,同比增长11.5%。一季度净投放现金2498亿元。 二、一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元 3月末，本外币贷款余额269.26万亿元，同比增长6.9%。月末人民币贷款余额265.41万亿元，同比增 长7.4%。 一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加1.04万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加1603 亿元，中长期贷款增加8832亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加8.66万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加3.51万 亿元，中长期贷款增加5.58万亿元，票据融资减少5442亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款减少866亿元。 3月末，外币贷款余额5357亿美元，同比下降20.1%。一季度外币贷款减少64亿美元。 六、一季度经常项下跨境人民币结算金额为3.96万亿元，直接投资跨境人民币结算金额为2.09万亿元 三、一季度人民币存款增加12.99万亿元 一季度，经常项下跨境人民币结算金 ...

Monetary Supply - As of the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance reached 326.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [2] - The narrow money (M1) balance was 113.49 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2] - The currency in circulation (M0) balance stood at 13.07 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2] - In the first quarter, a net cash injection of 249.8 billion yuan was recorded [2] Loan Growth - By the end of March, the total balance of RMB loans was 265.41 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [3] - In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan [3] - Household loans rose by 1.04 trillion yuan, with short-term loans increasing by 160.3 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 883.2 billion yuan [3] - Corporate loans increased by 8.66 trillion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 3.51 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 5.58 trillion yuan [3] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 20.1% year-on-year, with a total balance of 53.57 billion USD [4] Deposit Growth - The total balance of RMB deposits was 315.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [5] - In the first quarter, RMB deposits increased by 12.99 trillion yuan [6] - Household deposits rose by 9.22 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.74 trillion yuan [6] - Foreign currency deposits reached 95.98 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [7] Interbank Market Activity - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending in March was 1.85%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [8][9] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market for the first quarter was 431.39 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 7.31 trillion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of March, the national foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3.24 trillion USD [10] Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In the first quarter, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 3.96 trillion yuan, with direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounting to 2.09 trillion yuan [11]