Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan plans to conduct its own wage increase survey to gather data from small and medium-sized enterprises not affiliated with the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) [1] Group 1: Survey Implementation - The new wage survey will be part of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey and is expected to be announced later in the current fiscal year [1] - The independent wage survey is anticipated to start as early as 2027 [1] Group 2: Data Utilization - The results from the Bank of Japan's wage survey will be used as a reference for decisions regarding interest rate adjustments [1] - Previously, the Bank of Japan relied on data published by Rengo, which collects feedback from its member unions to assess wage increases [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are showing high caution regarding monetary policy adjustments, emphasizing the need to wait for more data before taking action [1] - Since the March FOMC meeting, several officials, including Chair Powell, agree that current policy is "in a good place" and that clearer economic data is needed before deciding on interest rate adjustments [1] - Tariffs are a focal point of discussion, with officials recognizing that their actual economic impact may be greater than expected, potentially leading to persistent inflation [1] Group 2 - Fed Governor Waller indicated that in a "high tariff" scenario, he would support faster and larger rate cuts if economic slowdown threatens recession, while in a "low tariff" scenario, he would support limited monetary policy responses [2] - Some officials are concerned that tariffs could lead to higher inflation and a weaker labor market, creating a conflict between the Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability [2] - The rising uncertainty is noted to potentially impact consumer and business spending and investment decisions, with officials advocating for patience in the face of uncertainty [2]

基本面： 现货黄金报3335附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报32.50美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 13:45 瑞士4月未季调失业率(%) 16:30 英国4月SPGI服务业PMI终值 20:30 美国3月贸易帐(亿美元) 周二（5月6日）亚市盘初，现货黄金在近一周高位窄幅震荡，目前交投于3330美元/盎司附近。受美元走软和避险需求推动，金价周一上涨近3%，现货黄金 收报3333.73美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价上涨近100美元，市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。美元指数周一下跌 0.2%，使得黄金对其他货币持 有者来说价格降低；市场权衡特朗普总统关税政策的持续不确定性及其对经济的影响。美元兑亚洲货币走软，部分原因是一些投资者在传出美国将加征更多 关税的消息后，清空了大量未对冲头寸。 美元在亚洲遭到抛售，部分原因是一些人担心美国最早将于周三宣布对半导体征收关税，而且有传言称，在这些双边贸易谈判中，美国可能会让东亚货币升 值。美国总统特朗普周日宣布对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。财政部长贝森特周一为特朗普的关税 ...

巴基斯坦央行将关键利率下调至 11.00%，预期 12%，前值 12%。 ...

兄弟姐妹们啊，简单关注一则特朗普跟美联储主席的消息。 特朗普首次给出明确表态 不会提前解雇鲍威尔 美国总统特朗普坚称，尽管他持续批评降息速度过慢，但他并不打算解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 他在周日播出的NBC节目《会见新闻界》中接受采访时说道："我为什么要那样做？我很快就可以换人 了。" 特朗普还为自己的关税政策进行了辩护，坚称企业已经开始将生产设施转移到美国。他补充说，他不排 除将这些关税永久化的可能性。 在采访中，总统再次被问及是否考虑竞选第三任总统，尽管宪法禁止总统连任三届。今年3月30日他曾 告诉NBC："很多人希望我这么做"，但当时表示做决定还为时尚早。而在本周日的采访中，他似乎否定 了这一可能。 特朗普称："他（鲍威尔）应该降息。迟早他会降的。他宁愿不这么做，因为他不是我的粉丝。你知 道，他就是不喜欢我，因为我觉得他是个完全呆板的人。" 当被问及是否会在鲍威尔2026年任期结束前将其免职时，特朗普作出了最明确的否认："不，不，不。 那完全是……我为什么要那样做？我很快就能换人了。" 上个月，在特朗普加大对鲍威尔的攻击力度之后，华尔街股市大幅下跌，引发市场对美联储独立性的担 忧。此后，特朗普在言辞 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported sales of $2,500,000,000, a decrease of 5.7% as reported or about flat on a constant basis, impacted by two fewer shipping days and foreign exchange headwinds [6][16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.52, benefiting from productivity gains, restructuring actions, and a lower tax rate, which offset pricing pressure and higher input costs [7][19]. - Gross margin for the quarter was 23.1% as reported, and 24.1% excluding charges, in line with the prior year [17]. - Operating income was $96,000,000 or 3.8%, with adjusted operating margin at 4.8%, a decrease of 130 basis points year-over-year due to higher input costs [17][18]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Global Ceramic**: Sales were just over $990,000,000, a 4.9% decrease as reported but a 1.2% increase on a constant basis, driven by improved product and channel mix [20]. - **Flooring North America**: Sales were $862,000,000, a decrease of 4.2% as reported or 1.1% on a constant basis, impacted by the order management system conversion [20]. - **Flooring Rest of the World**: Sales were $670,000,000, an 8.8% decrease as reported and 2.9% on an adjusted basis, driven by lower sales volume and unfavorable price mix [21]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Conditions in the first quarter weakened sequentially, with residential remodeling remaining the lowest sector [12]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been declining, affecting spending and housing activity [13]. - In Europe, consumer confidence has also declined due to economic uncertainty, leading to postponed home sales and remodeling activities [14]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow market share in a challenging environment by optimizing product mix and reducing costs [24]. - Restructuring projects are on schedule, with expected savings of approximately $100,000,000 this year [18][34]. - The company is focusing on enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities to mitigate tariff impacts and improve competitive positioning [9][24]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that the impact of tariffs will influence consumer spending and new construction, though the extent is unpredictable [11]. - The company expects pricing pressure to continue across all regions due to low demand and competitive markets [35]. - The outlook for the second quarter adjusted EPS is projected to be between $2.52 and $2.62, excluding any restructuring or one-time charges [36]. Other Important Information - The company purchased 225,000 shares of its stock for approximately $26,000,000 during the quarter [8]. - Cash and cash equivalents were just over $700,000,000, with free cash flow expected to remain strong despite a use of approximately $85,000,000 in Q1 [22][23]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of tariff impact and pricing actions - The CFO indicated that the $50,000,000 annualized cost impact from tariffs would be more evident in the late third to fourth quarter, as inventory turnover takes time [41]. Question: Domestic capacity and pricing strategy - Management emphasized the advantage of domestic production capacity in the U.S. market, which will be leveraged to optimize results amid tariff increases [43]. Question: Balancing pricing power and demand - Management acknowledged the challenge of balancing pricing power with slower demand, indicating that pricing actions are being assessed continuously [49][50]. Question: EPS growth outlook amid tariff impacts - Management expressed that EPS growth would depend on market conditions, with efforts to offset tariff impacts through pricing and cost-cutting measures [58][59]. Question: Inventory levels and market dynamics - The company noted an increase in inventory levels due to preemptive imports ahead of tariffs, with no significant changes in downstream volumes observed [105][106]. Question: Breakdown of imports and tariff exposure - The company clarified that a significant portion of imports comes from countries like Vietnam and India, with minimal exposure to China [111][112].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported sales for the first quarter were $2.5 billion, a decrease of 5.7% as reported or approximately flat on a constant basis, impacted by two fewer shipping days and foreign exchange headwinds [3][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.52, benefiting from productivity gains, restructuring actions, and a lower tax rate, which offset pricing pressure and higher input costs [4][14] - Gross margin for the quarter was 23.1% as reported, and 24.1% excluding charges, consistent with the prior year [13] - Operating income was reported at $96 million, or 3.8%, with adjusted operating margin at 4.8%, a decrease of 130 basis points year-over-year due to higher input costs [14][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Ceramic segment had sales of over $990 million, a 4.9% decrease as reported but a 1.2% increase on a constant basis, driven by improved product and channel mix [15] - Flooring North America sales were $862 million, a decrease of 4.2% as reported or 1.1% on a constant basis, impacted by the order management system conversion [15] - Flooring Rest of the World reported sales of $670 million, an 8.8% decrease as reported and 2.9% on an adjusted basis, driven by lower sales volume and unfavorable price mix [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Conditions in the first quarter weakened sequentially, with residential remodeling remaining the lowest sector [8][11] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been declining, affecting home sales and remodeling activities [10][11] - In Europe, consumer confidence has also declined due to economic uncertainty, leading to postponed home sales and remodeling activities [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow market share in a challenging environment by optimizing product mix and reducing costs [19] - Restructuring projects are on schedule, with expected savings of approximately $100 million this year [14][30] - The company is focusing on enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities to mitigate tariff impacts and improve competitive positioning [5][21] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that the impact of tariffs will influence consumer and business spending, though the extent is unpredictable [7][29] - The company expects pricing pressure to continue across all regions due to low demand and competitive markets [30] - Long-term prospects for the flooring category remain optimistic, with expectations of significant improvement when industry volumes return to historical levels [31] Other Important Information - The company purchased 225,000 shares of its stock for approximately $26 million during the quarter [4] - Cash and cash equivalents were over $700 million, with free cash flow usage of approximately $85 million primarily due to delayed invoicing and increased imports ahead of tariffs [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of tariff impact - The company expects the $50 million annualized cost impact from tariffs to be more pronounced in the late third quarter and fourth quarter, as inventory turnover takes time [34][36] Question: Pricing power in a promotional environment - The company believes that tariffs will be passed through to consumers, with selective pricing actions being taken to offset costs [42][44] Question: EPS growth outlook - Management indicated that EPS growth will depend on market conditions, with efforts to offset tariff impacts through pricing and cost-cutting measures [51][52] Question: Energy cost headwinds - The company expects energy costs to be slightly higher in Q2, with potential benefits from lower natural gas prices in the fourth quarter [118][120] Question: Inventory levels and market share - The company has increased inventory levels due to imports ahead of tariffs, and is focused on maintaining market share without leading with price [97][95]

加拿大央行会议纪要显示，委员会在是降息还是维持 利率不变的问题上存在分歧。 ...

泰国央行关键利率下调25基点至1.75%，符合预期。 ...

回顾过去的一些例子，我们可以看到这种数据如何影响黄金价格。比如在2024年6月，当非农新增就业只有17.5万（远低于预期的28.5 万），失业率上升到了4.1%，结果当天黄金价格就上涨了30美元。而在2021年3月，新增就业达到了91.6万，失业率降到了6.0%，这导致 黄金价格大跌了82美元。 | 自 2025年05月02日 - | | 图 回到今天 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ← 上周 | 04/28 04/29 周一 周二 | | 04/30 周三 | 05/01 周四 | 05/02 周五 | 05/03 周六 | 05/04 周日 | 下周 ▶ | | 经济数据 | -- 财经大事 假期 基差日历 | | 每日更新 | | | | | | | 经济数据一览 | | | | | 美国 ▼ | | 只看重要 ● | 未公布 ○ | | 时间 国区 | 指标名称 | | | 重要性 | 前值 | 预测值 | 公布值 | 影响 | | 03:00 | 美国3月用于乙醇燃料的玉米消费量(亿蒲式 ...