Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds in China's interbank bond market have decreased by approximately 2 basis points at the beginning of the trading session [1]

澳大利亚3年期国债收益率跌幅扩大至11个基点，国债收益率曲线变陡。 ...

智通财经4月9日电，澳大利亚3年期国债收益率跌幅扩大至11个基点。 ...

澳大利亚3年期国债收益率跌幅扩大至11个基点。 ...

两年期德债收益率涨5.7个基点，报1.835%，日内交投于1.785%-1.880%区间，全天处于上涨状态；30年 期德债收益率涨0.5个基点，报3.022%。 周二（4月8日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨1.8个基点，报2.631%，日内交投于2.575%-2.681% 区间。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌3.896个基点，报+79.187个基点。 ...

美国国债收益率持续攀升，5年期收益率当日上升10个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The OECD report indicates that US tariff policies are slowing down both US and global economic growth, with forecasts for US economic growth dropping significantly to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [1] - The report predicts that inflation in the US will rebound in 2025, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] - Trump's tariffs have adversely affected major US industries, particularly agriculture and energy, as China has retaliated with tariffs on US imports, including natural gas and crude oil [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell acknowledging that a significant portion of inflation is attributable to tariffs [5] - Global investors are increasingly selling off Indian stocks at record rates, with nearly $29 billion withdrawn since last October, while turning their attention to Chinese stocks due to economic stimulus measures [5][7] - The Indian stock market has seen a decline of 13% since its peak in September 2022, leading to a market capitalization loss of $1 trillion, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential risks [5][7] Group 3 - High long-term borrowing rates in the US are creating a competitive advantage for government bonds, making corporate debt issuance costly and uncertain [7] - The US stock market is facing valuation adjustments, with increased risks of IPO failures and uncontrollable costs in equity financing [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation, and government bond prices, emphasizing that nominal interest rates serve as a proxy for risk-free rates and are influenced by economic growth and inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates - CPI is a crucial indicator of inflation; an increase in CPI from 2 to 5 leads to higher nominal return expectations, resulting in rising risk-free rates and falling government bond prices [2]. - Actual interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are positively correlated with economic growth, while nominal rates are positively correlated with both economic growth and inflation [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Bond Price Changes - When nominal interest rates decrease, government bond prices increase as investors seek higher yields from fixed-income products [3]. - Conversely, when nominal interest rates rise, government bond prices decline due to new bonds offering higher yields [4]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing 30-Year Bonds - The two main factors affecting 30-year government bonds are actual interest rates and CPI growth rates; both factors inversely affect bond prices [5][6]. - A simultaneous decrease in actual interest rates and CPI growth rates leads to a significant increase in bond prices, while simultaneous increases lead to a substantial decrease [7]. Group 4: Determinants of Actual Interest Rates - Economic conditions significantly influence actual interest rates, reflecting borrowing costs and market supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Central bank policies, including adjustments to open market operations and reserve requirements, play a critical role in shaping actual interest rates [9]. Group 5: Factors Affecting 30-Year Bond ETF - Changes in interest rates directly impact ETF net values; rising yields lead to declining net values, while falling yields boost net values [10]. - The shape of the yield curve affects the attractiveness of 30-year bonds; a steepening curve may reduce demand for long-term bonds, while a flattening or inverted curve enhances their appeal [11][12]. - Inflation expectations can suppress ETF prices, while recession expectations can lower rates and benefit ETF prices [13][14]. Group 6: Conclusion and Investment Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF acts as a "barometer" for interest rate markets, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and investor behavior [15]. - Investors should focus on interest rate path expectations, ETF premium/discount risks, and inflation expectations when making investment decisions [16][17][18]. - In a rate-cutting environment, it is generally advisable to take long positions in government bonds, although inappropriate rate cuts could lead to rising CPI and hinder market rate declines [19][20].

看ip，刚到家，第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车，车程将近8小时，屁股都坐硬了，中间停靠的站点太多，乘坐体验很不好，但每天也就这么一班车没得选，每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍，就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好，大超市场预期，严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次（0.25%），在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一，有29%。红线代表全年降息两次（0.5%），之前一直概率领先，但周五 被蓝线反超，目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对，暂停买入国债操作，这让债券利率略有反弹，算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕，我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论，这事偏利空，对全球资本市场，对港股都不是好消息，a股有外汇防火墙，影响会小一 点，但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻，所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件，另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的，过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会，会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加，但是记者问具体数字的时 ...

今晚写夜报前看major决赛的直播，这是cs全年最重要的比赛，冠军奖金50万美元。我从2000年就开始玩这游戏，24年了，一直到现在都经常和哥们组 排，但水平已经不行了，就纯娱乐。 决赛是俄罗斯的spirit对阵欧洲的faze，前面两张图打成1:1，最后决胜图是全世界玩家最熟悉的dust2。spirt依靠队内天才步枪手的发挥一度握有7个赛点， 顽强的faze硬生生从5:12追到了11:12，但最终还是输掉了最后一局。 真的刺激，我已经很久没看过这么让人窒息的决赛了，电子竞技的观赏性绝对超过了绝大多数的体育项目。 这次比赛最闪耀的mvp是一个17岁的俄罗斯少年donk，今年是他征战职业赛场的第一年，但就打出了全球top1的水平，赛场表现炸裂，他的六边形数据全 部"爆表"。 来，把周末值得说的事情捋一捋。 1、10年期国债活跃券收益率跌破1.8%关口，报1.78%，继续创历史新低。30年国债的收益率也随后跌破2%关口，报1.9999%。已经有几家券商研报判断 明年的逆回购利率会下跌40-50bp，至于房贷的利率降幅则要比这个更大。做出这些判断是有前提的，即中国经济确实需要进一步的宽松刺激，以及房价 依然还没有达到 ...