国债收益率
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【环球财经】为平抑市场波动 日本考虑回购部分超长期国债
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 14:00
Group 1 - Japan plans to repurchase ultra-long-term government bonds to curb the sharp rise in bond yields, which has raised concerns among policymakers [1] - The yield on Japan's ultra-long-term bonds has reached historical highs, influenced by the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields and domestic supply issues [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will make a final decision on the bond repurchase after meetings with market participants on June 20 and 23 [1] Group 2 - Analysts express optimism about the government's measures, suggesting that the challenges in the Japanese bond market are "technical" rather than "structural" [2] - Approximately 90% of Japanese government bonds are held domestically, indicating that supply-demand imbalances are more about timing than fundamental flaws [2] - The Bank of Japan may discuss slowing down its bond purchases in an upcoming policy meeting, with potential reductions in the quarterly purchase scale [2] Group 3 - The recent rise in long-term bond yields has supported the yen, as capital flows back to Japan may strengthen the currency [3] - Analysts predict that the USD/JPY exchange rate could decline from 144 to 136 by the end of September due to domestic investor behavior [3] - The Bank of Japan's hawkish stance may encourage domestic investors to favor local bonds over foreign ones [3]
每日机构分析:6月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 13:54
·美国国债收益率下跌投资者关注本周拍卖 ·泰国通胀数据不太可能影响央行利率决策 【机构分析】 ·日元多头押注过高或致其长期下跌 ·过度投机已抑制了日元的上涨势头,且市场对日元长期下跌趋势可能重启的预期正在增加。4月日元多 头押注达到157亿美元的历史高位,6月仍维持在131亿美元的高位,而此前日元多头押注的最高水平仅 为80亿美元。押注规模越大,对市场的抑制作用越强,而投机者迟早会平仓离场,无论盈利与否,日元 多头最终都将面临抛售压力。美元兑日元在接近关键支撑位时止跌,而这一支撑位可能是未来大幅上涨 的基础,这使得当前的极端投机状态更加值得关注。美元兑日元的上涨趋势还受到日本和美国货币政策 的支持。 ·英镑兑美元在欧元走强带动下保持温和上涨态势 ·ING外汇分析师Chris Turner指出,英镑兑美元在欧元走强带动下保持温和上涨态势。本周英镑的关键 事件包括周二的就业数据和周三英国政府的支出审查,但预计两者都不会对英镑产生重大影响。预计英 镑兑美元将在1.3500至1.3600区间内交易,但如果英国央行今年降息两次(每次25个基点),则可能会 面临一些下行风险。目前市场仅预期今年英国央行将降息36个基点。 ...
日美五轮关税谈判无果叠加债市波动影响未消,日本经济如何破局?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 06:24
Economic Overview - Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter, with GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.2%, lower than the previously estimated 0.7% [1] - Personal consumption grew by 0.1%, while corporate spending increased by 1.1%. Inventory contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth, but net exports detracted 0.8 percentage points [1] - The outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of stagnant GDP growth in the second quarter due to global economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [1] U.S.-Japan Tariff Negotiations - The fifth round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations ended without consensus, focusing on trade expansion, non-tariff measures, and economic security cooperation [3] - Japan's stance remains firm against tariffs, which have significantly impacted its economy, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors [3] - Expectations suggest that the U.S. may withdraw the 24% "reciprocal tariff" but retain around 10% additional tariffs on strategic products [3] Trade Relations and Cooperation - Japan is willing to collaborate with the U.S. in shipbuilding technology and liquefied natural gas development, aiming to address trade deficits [4] - Proposals include enhancing mutual certification for automotive exports and promoting Japanese brand vehicles produced in the U.S. for third-country markets [4] - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. is projected to reach approximately 9 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024, with both exports and imports hitting record highs [4] Japanese Bond Market Volatility - Recent fluctuations in the Japanese bond market have drawn attention, with significant declines in auction results for long-term bonds [5] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 20-year bond auction fell to 2.5, the lowest in 38 years, indicating weak demand [5] - Concerns over the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes and fiscal stability ahead of the July elections contribute to market volatility [6] Future Outlook for Bonds - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects various factors, including speculation about interest rate changes and concerns over fiscal stability [6] - The Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its bond purchases, which may increase supply in the market and affect bond prices [6] - The government is reportedly considering lowering the issuance of long-term bonds in response to market fluctuations [6]
印度10年期国债收益率上升5个基点,至6.34%。
news flash· 2025-06-09 05:31
Core Viewpoint - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds has increased by 5 basis points to 6.34% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards government securities [1] - The increase in yield may reflect broader economic conditions and expectations regarding inflation and interest rates [1]
大类资产早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 05:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/06/06, the US was at 4.508, with a latest change of 0.115, a one - year change of - 0.043. Some yields have increased recently, while others have decreased [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to 10 - year yields, there are differences among economies. The US 2 - year yield on 2025/06/06 was 3.870, with a latest change of - 0.090 and a one - year change of - 1.060 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies show different trends. For instance, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.560 on 2025/06/06, with a latest change of - 0.50% and a one - year change of 7.74% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices also have diverse performances. The S&P 500 on 2025/06/06 was 6000.360, with a latest change of 1.03% and a one - year change of 13.09% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (investment - grade and high - yield) in different regions (US, eurozone, emerging economies) have various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.49% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 3385.36 with a 0.04% change. Different indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., have different closing prices and percentage changes [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for different indices are provided, such as 12.56 for the CSI 300, with corresponding环比 changes [3]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data (1/PE - 10 rate) and their环比 changes are given for multiple indices [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market are presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 518.24 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and different indices are provided, along with环比 changes [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures like IF, IH, and IC are given [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) are shown. For example, T00 closed at 108.710 with a 0.03% change [4]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes are provided [4].