金十数据7月24日讯，瑞银财富管理的Magdalene Teo表示，日本股市因美日贸易协议而上涨，但日债市 场则认为该协议加剧财政风险，可能使本已庞大的政府债务进一步增加。东京方面承诺将在美国投资 5500亿美元，这在资本外流方面可能对日本信用构成负面影响，并可能拖累日元和日本经济。与此同 时，执政联盟实力减弱，使政府更可能向在野党妥协，同意下调消费税并增加现金发放。Teo指出，本 周40年期日本国债拍卖吸引的需求创下自2011年以来最低，反映出市场因财政风险而避开买盘。收益率 若长期高企，将在经济不确定性持续之际推高日本政府的融资成本。 宝盛集团：美日协议加剧财政风险 日债市场承压 ...

40年期日本国债收益率下降5.5个基点至3.4%。 ...

40年期日本国债收益率上涨3.5个基点至3.39%。 ...

Group 1 - The auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds showed strong performance, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.51, higher than the 12-month average of 3.14, indicating reduced upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to weakened expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Following a poorly received 20-year bond auction in May that led to record high yields for ultra-long bonds, the Japanese government has adjusted its bond issuance plan to stabilize demand, maintaining the issuance volume of 10-year bonds while reducing that of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds [4] - The sentiment in the Japanese bond market appears positive as the Ministry of Finance's decision to reduce ultra-long bond issuance has been well-received, although caution remains regarding the upcoming 30-year bond auction [4][5] Group 2 - The 10-year Japanese government bond serves as a benchmark for long-term loan rates, significantly impacting mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs [4] - Despite the strong performance of the 10-year bond auction, yields on 30 and 40-year bonds have not significantly declined, reflecting market caution ahead of the 30-year bond auction [5] - The recent short-term survey indicated a significant decline in confidence within the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rates [4]

Core Viewpoint - From July, the issuance scale of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds will be reduced by 1 trillion yen for each auction [1] Group 1 - The reduction in bond issuance is a significant policy change that may impact the Japanese bond market [1] - This decision reflects the government's strategy to manage debt levels and interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - From July, the issuance scale of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds will be reduced by 100 billion yen for each auction [1] Group 1 - The reduction in bond issuance is a significant policy change that may impact the Japanese bond market [1] - This decision reflects the government's strategy to manage debt levels and interest rates [1] - Investors may need to adjust their strategies in response to the decreased supply of long-term bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the issuance scale of ultra-long-term bonds starting from July, while increasing the issuance of short-term bonds, including 2-year bonds [1] Group 1 - From July, the issuance scale of 40-year Japanese government bonds will be reduced by 100 billion yen in each auction [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of confidence, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, nearing the highest level since the 2007 financial crisis [1] - Concerns about the long-term fiscal situation of the U.S. are deepening, as the total federal debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio over 124%, significantly above international warning levels [1] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion in the fiscal year 2024, becoming the third-largest government expenditure, surpassing defense spending [1] Group 2 - Major Wall Street investment firms are shifting to risk-averse strategies, systematically avoiding 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds and reallocating funds to mid-term bonds (5 to 10 years) [3] - These mid-term bonds offer relatively attractive returns while effectively reducing interest rate risk exposure, as firms like Pacific Investment Management Company adopt similar defensive strategies [3] - This collective adjustment in investment portfolios has yielded positive risk control outcomes this year, with investors seeking higher risk compensation for long-term lending to the U.S. government in the current fiscal environment [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is exhibiting a rare steepening trend, with the 30-year yield rising significantly while short-term yields (2-year, 5-year) are declining [4] - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year yields has surpassed 100 basis points for the first time since 2021, indicating substantial selling pressure on long-term bonds [4] - Recent bond auctions from major economies, including the U.S. and Japan, have faced weak demand, raising concerns about the future demand for long-term government bonds [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a difficult balancing act regarding inflation and economic growth, with some officials advocating for interest rate cuts while others caution about the long-term impacts of tariffs on inflation [1][1][1] - The European Commission aims to reduce carbon emissions by 54% by 2030, slightly below its 55% target, and plans to propose a 90% reduction by 2040 despite opposition from member states [2][2] - Japan's first dedicated AI law aims to promote AI technology development while preventing misuse, establishing an "AI Strategy Headquarters" led by the Prime Minister [2][2] Group 2 - Japan's 40-year government bond auction saw a maximum bid yield of 3.1350%, the highest since its issuance in November 2007, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.21, the lowest since July 2024 [3][3] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, indicating room for further rate cuts [3][3] - OPEC+ agreed to maintain its current oil production quota plan, with a meeting scheduled for May 31 to discuss potential production increases of 411,000 barrels per day [4][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on Japan's long-term debt issues and the implications for both Japanese and U.S. bonds, highlighting structural fiscal challenges that remain unresolved [2][9]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market - On May 27, Japanese bonds rebounded due to speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds, leading to a drop in yields to three-week lows [2][5]. - However, on May 28, the auction for 40-year Japanese bonds was seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with the bid-to-cover ratio falling to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating weak demand despite previous short-term positive signals [4][6]. - The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][11]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The article notes that U.S. Treasury yields also fell on May 27, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, but the overall outlook remains bearish due to ongoing fiscal concerns [2][9]. - Analysts express that the U.S. bond market is likely to remain in a bear market, driven by fiscal risks exacerbated by recent tax legislation that could add $4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury term premium is currently near its highest level since 2014, reflecting heightened anxiety over fiscal challenges and political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The article emphasizes that the structural fiscal issues in both Japan and the U.S. are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to continued volatility in bond markets [2][9]. - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds has weakened significantly, with major traditional buyers like life insurance companies showing reduced interest, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [10][11]. - Japan's government is projected to face annual debt servicing costs nearing $230 billion over the next four years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal position [11].