俄美通话详情公开 去年竞选美国总统期间，特朗普曾扬言"24小时内结束俄乌冲突"。自其今年上任至今，俄乌局势一变再 变，僵局仍未打破。这周，特朗普和俄乌领导人分别"煲电话粥"，并邀请欧盟及法国、意大利、波兰等 国领导人参与讨论。多方斡旋，结果如何？ 5月20日，欧盟在与特朗普通电话后，宣布对俄罗斯发动新一轮制裁，并称俄乌冲突持续时间越长，欧 盟制裁会越严厉。欧乌均表态，美欧应一同推进俄乌冲突和平解决。同时，有分析指出，特朗普19日与 普京的通话，令不少欧洲领导人担忧：美方立场恐转而偏向俄罗斯。 国际社会对此次特朗普"电话劝和"持观望态度。5月20日，有国际问题专家向南都、N视频指出，特朗 普在推动俄乌谈判中，过于依赖威胁策略，缺乏有效的具体解决方案。"俄乌对于停火的需求并未发生 变化"，问题的复杂性决定了俄乌冲突的和平解决是一个漫长的过程。 早在去年竞选总统期间，特朗普曾承诺上任后"在24小时内"结束俄乌冲突。 俄乌冲突自爆发以来，已持续三年多，双方至今未能就和平协议达成一致。今年4月底，当被问及为何 协议迟迟未能达成时，特朗普表示，他认为时间并不算长，并强调自己才上任三个月。 这周，俄乌形势再次发生变化。 当 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]

中东地缘扰动加剧，油价强势反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结 数据变化分析（2025年5月20日） 原油期货价格呈现分化走势：国内SC原油价格小幅走高0.56%至465.4元/ 桶，而WTI和Brent价格维持稳定，分别持平于62.15和65.48美元/桶。价差 方面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别走强0.28美元/桶，反映SC相对国际油价 的短期溢价扩大；Brent-WTI价差稳定于3.33美元/桶，显示欧美市场供需 结构未发生显著变化。SC连-连3价差大幅走弱80%至-0.9元/桶，暗示远期 合约贴水加深，市场对远期供应宽松的预期升温。 供需及库存分析 供给端：OPEC+维持增产策略，叠加美国API原油库存意外 增加249.9万桶（预期-144.9万桶），显示短期供应压力仍存。地缘政治风 险扰动加剧，以色列计划袭击伊朗核设施的消息一度推动WTI盘中涨超3%， 但伊核协议谈判若取得进展可能释放伊朗潜在供应，压制油 ...

从乌克兰的角度来看，三年的战事确实让举国上下疲惫不堪，想要凭借自身力量解除俄军对其部分领土 的控制，也属于"白日做梦"。 但一方面，乌克兰自觉没到"山穷水尽"的地步，乌军依托要塞化的城市建成区，足够阻滞俄军的攻势， 可谓"驱俄不足，自保有余"；另一方面，乌克兰国内民意依旧十分反对"放弃领土"，这让乌政府很难满 足俄罗斯让乌克兰放弃顿巴斯等四个地区和克里米亚的条件。 另外，乌克兰显然对俄罗斯缺乏信任。 在乌克兰政府看来，既然《明斯克协议》无法阻止2022年的特别军事行动，那怎么让他们相信下一份和 平条约能阻止下一次的特别军事行动？ 中新网5月20日电(郑云天) 当地时间5月15日，俄罗斯和乌克兰双方代表结束在土耳其伊斯坦布尔的会 谈。乌克兰方面称会谈"毫无成果"。 这次俄罗斯和乌克兰的直接谈判，难免给人一种"虎头蛇尾"的感觉。 一开始两国总统出面喊话，俄总统普京提议在土耳其伊斯坦布尔直接谈判，乌总统泽连斯基称将在土耳 其"等候"普京，好像两人就要会面谈判一般。美国总统特朗普也说，自己有可能也要加入会谈。 资料图：当地时间2月28日，美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在白宫举行会谈。会谈过程中，双 方爆发激烈争吵 ...

【环球时报驻俄罗斯、德国特派特约记者 肖新新 青木 柳玉鹏 裴茗】北京时间19日晚，俄罗斯总统普京 与美国总统特朗普开始举行电话会谈。这是自特朗普重返白宫后与俄领导人的第三次通话，上一次是在 3月中旬。与普京结束对话后，特朗普还计划与乌克兰总统泽连斯基及北约国家领导人通话。此次通话 前，俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，俄方更愿意通过政治与外交途径解决乌克兰问题。英国《金融时 报》说，美国政府将此次通话描述为确立持久解决俄乌冲突具体框架的关键时刻。而欧洲领导人一直担 心美国会与俄罗斯达成忽视乌克兰利益的协议，在俄美总统通话前，他们"争相"试图影响特朗普的想 法。英法德意领导人18日与特朗普通话时讨论了"如果俄罗斯不认真对待和谈，他们可能实施制裁"。在 各方立场僵持的情况下，"俄乌谈判将走向何方"引发了舆论热议。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）19日评 论称，与以往一样，解决俄乌冲突的难题依旧存在，双方目前都不愿意接受彼此的"最低条件"，不愿意 妥协。但这并不意味着对话——无论是面对面还是通话——是没有意义的。 俄美总统通话前，英国伦敦国王学院学者米隆对卡塔尔半岛电视台分析了几种可能的结果：双方就某种 停火达成一致；他们 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump stated the U.S. has not withdrawn from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]

总台记者 5月17日获悉，有乌克兰国家安全局消息人士表示，乌克兰国家安全局无人机袭击了位于克里米亚的俄第126海防旅的弹药库。 弹药库遭袭后发生了强烈的爆炸并燃起大火。 当地时间5月17日，俄罗斯外交部通报称，在美方倡议下，俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话，讨论了俄美继续接触的问 题。 拉夫罗夫指出，乌克兰接受俄方关于恢复伊斯坦布尔谈判的建议，美方发挥了积极作用。俄方愿意就协调乌克兰问题继续与美方共同开展 工作。 鲁比奥对俄乌协议一致的交换战俘和准备达成的停火愿景表示欢迎。他强调美国愿意继续协助解决乌克兰问题。俄外交部称，双方还探讨 了其他国际和地区问题。 当地时间5月17日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，他将于本月19日上午10时与俄罗斯总统普京通话，讨论停止俄乌 冲突以及贸易相关问题。 他还表示，随后将与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通话，并与泽连斯基一道同北约多国成员展开交流。 特朗普还表示，他与乌克兰总统泽连斯基的会谈非常不愉快，泽连斯基也缺乏合作意愿。 俄方：先达成一定协议 普京和泽连斯基才可能会面 当地时间5月17日，俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，乌克兰问题的解决工作将继续进行。俄 ...

智通财经5月16日电，乌克兰总统办公室主任叶尔马克当地时间5月16日在社交媒体上表示，俄罗斯试图 将正在进行的谈判与2022年的谈判相关联，但是两次谈判实际上仅有伊斯坦布尔这一地点具有相同点。 叶尔马克强调，俄罗斯所有将当前谈判与2022年相联系的尝试都不会得逞。16日下午，在土耳其方面主 持下，俄罗斯和乌克兰代表团在土耳其伊斯坦布尔开始关于和平解决乌克兰危机的会谈。 (央视新闻) 乌克兰总统办公室主任：本次俄乌谈判不会与三年前关联 ...

乌克兰外交消息人士表示，俄罗斯要求在没有美国和土耳其代表参加的情况下与乌克兰进行谈判。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia shows no intention of negotiating, emphasizing a lack of respect from Russia in terms of meeting arrangements and high-level representation [1] Group 1 - Zelensky expressed that Russia has not demonstrated respect, citing the absence of meeting times, agendas, and senior delegations [1] - He indicated that if Russia does not show genuine willingness to negotiate, he will call for severe sanctions against Russia from Western and Global South countries [1]