Core Points - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul, Turkey, where both sides reached a consensus on exchanging severely injured prisoners of war and the remains of deceased soldiers, but remained firm on key issues like ceasefire [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while there are some positive signals from the negotiations, significant divisions remain on critical issues such as ceasefire conditions and territorial disputes, indicating a prolonged period of conflict alongside negotiations [1][5] Negotiation Outcomes - The talks, hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, lasted about one hour and resulted in an agreement to exchange all severely injured prisoners of war and to conduct a large-scale exchange of the remains of deceased soldiers under the principle of "all for all" [2][4] - Russian officials expressed satisfaction with the outcomes, highlighting the importance of the agreement on the exchange of severely injured soldiers as a significant achievement [4] Remaining Disagreements - A memorandum regarding the resolution of the Ukraine crisis was presented by the Russian delegation, outlining their positions on key issues, including ceasefire and territorial matters, but significant contradictions with Ukraine's stance remain [5] - Ukraine rejected Russia's proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire during the negotiations, indicating that both sides have not yet prepared adequately for a ceasefire [5][10] Military Actions and Future Outlook - Military actions have continued around the time of the negotiations, with Ukraine launching drone attacks against Russian positions, suggesting both sides are seeking battlefield victories to strengthen their negotiating positions [8][10] - Analysts predict a scenario of "fighting while negotiating," with both parties unlikely to reach a swift peace agreement due to a lack of willingness to make significant compromises [10]

佩斯科夫：近期不会举行美俄乌三方领导人会晤 金十数据6月3日讯，当地时间6月3日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫指出，期待俄乌在伊斯坦布尔的谈 判能立即取得突破性进展是不切实际的。他表示，双方达成了一些协议——这些协议很重要，并将得到 落实。佩斯科夫认为，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在谈判后的声明"欠妥"，且不符合谈判精神。佩斯科夫指 出，俄美之间保持着对话机制，并将继续利用这些渠道进行沟通，必要时可迅速安排普京与特朗普的接 触，但目前尚无相关安排。此外，佩斯科夫还表示，近期不太可能举行普京、特朗普与泽连斯基的三方 会晤。 ...

Core Points - Two bridges in the Bryansk and Kursk regions of Russia collapsed on May 31 and June 1, respectively, due to explosions, resulting in at least 7 deaths and over 70 injuries, classified as a "terrorist attack" by Russian authorities [1] - The Russian Investigative Committee reported that the Bryansk highway bridge collapsed after an explosion, causing casualties among passengers on a train below, while a railway bridge in Kursk also collapsed, injuring a locomotive driver and two assistants [1] - Following the incidents, security measures were heightened across multiple regions in Russia, with inspections of bridges and transportation hubs being conducted [2] Summary by Sections Incident Details - The explosions occurred on May 31 and June 1, leading to the collapse of two bridges, with the Bryansk incident resulting in 7 deaths and 71 injuries, including 3 in serious condition [1] - The Investigative Committee has classified the events as a "terrorist attack," and Russian officials are conducting necessary investigations [1] Government Response - Russian President Putin was briefed on the situation by the president of Russian Railways and the governor of Bryansk [1] - The State Duma's International Affairs Committee Chairman stated that the perpetrators should face severe punishment, suggesting the incidents could be a provocation to disrupt upcoming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [1] Security Measures - In response to the attacks, regions such as Tula and Lipetsk have increased security measures, including inspections of bridges and transportation hubs [2] - The Chairman of the Constitutional Committee of the Federation Council emphasized the need for enhanced security in border areas and proposed the establishment of a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine to prevent terrorist incursions [2] Political Implications - The Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council's representative suggested that Russia might use the bridge collapses as a pretext to undermine negotiations and portray Ukraine as a "terrorist state" to the international community [2]

Core Points - The Russian delegation is prepared to engage in the second round of negotiations with Ukraine on June 2 in Istanbul [2][3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has outlined three core demands for the negotiations: unconditional ceasefire, prisoner exchange, and safe return of abducted children [5] Group 1: Negotiation Details - The Russian delegation, led by presidential aide Medinsky, will present a memorandum draft and other ceasefire proposals during the talks [3] - The first round of direct negotiations took place on May 16, resulting in an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners and a willingness to continue discussions [7] Group 2: Ukrainian Position - Zelensky emphasized the need for a high-level leaders' meeting to address key issues directly, asserting that only direct dialogue can effectively resolve the conflict [5] - The Ukrainian delegation will be headed by Defense Minister Umerov [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on June 2 in Istanbul are crucial, with both sides maintaining their negotiation teams and focusing on achieving a complete and unconditional ceasefire [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zikhi, stated that if the Russian delegation remains unchanged, the Ukrainian delegation will also not change [1] - Russia's presidential spokesperson, Peskov, confirmed that the Russian delegation will attend the talks in Istanbul on June 2 [1] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated that the head of the Russian negotiation team will still be Mezhinsky [1] Group 2: Historical Context - The meeting on May 16 in Istanbul marked the first face-to-face talks between Ukraine and Russia in over three years of escalating crisis [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [1][3] - The International Trade Court in Manhattan stated that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other nations, and the emergency powers claimed by the President do not supersede this authority [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government has announced the cancellation of student and exchange scholar program qualifications for Harvard University, prohibiting the school from enrolling international students [8][24] - President Trump has called for Harvard to disclose its foreign student list, suggesting a cap of 15% on international students, as the current ratio is approximately 31% [6][24] Group 3 - France's tourism sector is reportedly benefiting from tourists, particularly from Japan and Canada, who are avoiding the U.S. due to Trump's policies [22][24] - The French tourism minister noted a 30% increase in visitors from Canada and Japan, as they reconsider travel to the U.S. under Trump's administration [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around Trump's recent diplomatic efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting the complexities and challenges involved in achieving a peaceful resolution [1][4][10] - Trump had previously claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, but the situation remains unresolved after three years of conflict [2][8] - Recent communications between Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Zelensky indicate a potential for negotiations, but the specifics of any agreement remain uncertain [3][5][6] Group 2 - The European Union has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, emphasizing that the longer the conflict continues, the stricter the sanctions will become [1][6] - There are concerns among European leaders regarding the shift in U.S. policy under Trump, which may lead to a perception of reduced support for Ukraine [6][7] - The complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is underscored by differing demands from both sides, with Russia insisting on military withdrawals and Ukraine calling for unconditional ceasefire [8][9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Trump's reliance on threats rather than concrete solutions may hinder the negotiation process [5][10] - The potential for a multilateral summit involving the U.S., EU, Russia, and Ukraine is being discussed as a way to support Ukraine's position in negotiations [10] - The ongoing conflict and the international response could have long-term implications for European security and global energy markets [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]

中东地缘扰动加剧，油价强势反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结 数据变化分析（2025年5月20日） 原油期货价格呈现分化走势：国内SC原油价格小幅走高0.56%至465.4元/ 桶，而WTI和Brent价格维持稳定，分别持平于62.15和65.48美元/桶。价差 方面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别走强0.28美元/桶，反映SC相对国际油价 的短期溢价扩大；Brent-WTI价差稳定于3.33美元/桶，显示欧美市场供需 结构未发生显著变化。SC连-连3价差大幅走弱80%至-0.9元/桶，暗示远期 合约贴水加深，市场对远期供应宽松的预期升温。 供需及库存分析 供给端：OPEC+维持增产策略，叠加美国API原油库存意外 增加249.9万桶（预期-144.9万桶），显示短期供应压力仍存。地缘政治风 险扰动加剧，以色列计划袭击伊朗核设施的消息一度推动WTI盘中涨超3%， 但伊核协议谈判若取得进展可能释放伊朗潜在供应，压制油 ...

从乌克兰的角度来看，三年的战事确实让举国上下疲惫不堪，想要凭借自身力量解除俄军对其部分领土 的控制，也属于"白日做梦"。 但一方面，乌克兰自觉没到"山穷水尽"的地步，乌军依托要塞化的城市建成区，足够阻滞俄军的攻势， 可谓"驱俄不足，自保有余"；另一方面，乌克兰国内民意依旧十分反对"放弃领土"，这让乌政府很难满 足俄罗斯让乌克兰放弃顿巴斯等四个地区和克里米亚的条件。 另外，乌克兰显然对俄罗斯缺乏信任。 在乌克兰政府看来，既然《明斯克协议》无法阻止2022年的特别军事行动，那怎么让他们相信下一份和 平条约能阻止下一次的特别军事行动？ 中新网5月20日电(郑云天) 当地时间5月15日，俄罗斯和乌克兰双方代表结束在土耳其伊斯坦布尔的会 谈。乌克兰方面称会谈"毫无成果"。 这次俄罗斯和乌克兰的直接谈判，难免给人一种"虎头蛇尾"的感觉。 一开始两国总统出面喊话，俄总统普京提议在土耳其伊斯坦布尔直接谈判，乌总统泽连斯基称将在土耳 其"等候"普京，好像两人就要会面谈判一般。美国总统特朗普也说，自己有可能也要加入会谈。 资料图：当地时间2月28日，美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在白宫举行会谈。会谈过程中，双 方爆发激烈争吵 ...