Core Points - Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that if interest rates are not lowered, the Federal Reserve Board should take control [1] - The total U.S. national debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by July 2025, which is comparable to the GDP of several major countries [1] - Publicly held debt is approximately $28 trillion, while intra-governmental debt exceeds $7 trillion [1] - Interest payments account for 17% of the federal budget, with 2024 interest payments expected to reach $921 billion, nearly equivalent to the GDP of Brazil or Canada [1] - The national debt is growing rapidly, projected to rise from $33 trillion at the end of 2024 to $36.2 trillion by July 2025 [1] - The increase in debt is driven by a significant fiscal deficit, with tax revenues failing to cover expenditures [1] - Trump's tax cuts during his presidency aimed to stimulate the economy but resulted in a larger fiscal gap, with Congress estimating an additional $22 trillion in debt over the next decade [1] - The debt ceiling continues to be raised, often accompanied by intense congressional debates, to avoid a potential government shutdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the US dollar is entering a new downward cycle due to a combination of short-term, medium-term, and long-term pressures, including interest rate differentials, US debt issues, and the trend of de-dollarization [1][2][19]. Short-term Analysis - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, the widening interest rate differential between the US and non-US markets has been a key factor supporting the dollar's high position [3]. - The ability of the Federal Reserve to initiate consecutive rate cuts will be crucial for the dollar's future trajectory, as inflation in the US is expected to align more closely with other major economies by mid-2025 [4][5]. - The US economy is showing increasing signs of downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a broad decline across various economic indicators [5]. - Other markets are expected to see a slowdown in easing monetary policies, which could further compress the interest rate differentials that have supported the dollar [7][8]. Medium-term Analysis - The US Treasury market is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by the current administration's fiscal policies, which could negatively impact the dollar's value [11][12]. - Over the past two years, the Treasury market has experienced three notable supply-demand crises, indicating ongoing instability [13][14]. - The recent "Great Beautiful Plan" proposed by the Trump administration is projected to worsen the fiscal deficit, leading to further imbalances in the Treasury market [15][16]. - By the end of 2024, the US federal debt is expected to exceed $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $952 billion, creating substantial pressure on the dollar [16]. Long-term Analysis - The dollar's dominance is being challenged by a decline in the US's international standing and responsibilities, with its share of global GDP dropping to 14.9% by 2024 [18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with various countries exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade and reserves, which could significantly reduce demand for the dollar [19]. - Historical precedents suggest that large-scale de-dollarization can lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as seen after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [19].

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a volatile trend, with prices opening at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99, closing at $3336.46, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [1] - The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues, with the U.S. President claiming victory, although the extent of damage to Iran's uranium enrichment assets remains unclear [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the possibility of delaying interest rate cuts until the inflation impact from tariffs becomes clearer, with market predictions indicating a 25% chance of a rate cut in July and a 67% chance in September [2] Group 2 - The ceasefire agreement has temporarily reduced market risk aversion, but underlying issues remain unresolved, including the lack of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns in the U.S. bond market, which may provide support for gold prices [3] - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with key support and resistance levels identified at 3293 and 3368, respectively, and significant pressure noted around the 3347-52 range [3] - Recent data indicates a significant decline in new home sales by 13.7% due to rising mortgage rates, alongside a decrease in mortgage applications [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Bearish" [7] Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the stagflation pressure in the US will rise significantly, and the Fed will release liquidity to balance the economy, leading to a weaker US dollar with an expected weakening center around 95 [5][95] - The market volatility in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than that in the first half, so holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96] Summary by Directory 1. United States: Severe Economic Pressure and Worsening Treasury Bond Issues 1.1 Labor Market: Structural Resilience Persists, but Medium - term Weakness is Inevitable - In H1 2025, the US labor market's resilience exceeded expectations, with a high - level new employment center, slowing wage growth, and a low unemployment rate [17] - The labor market shows insensitivity to the economic cycle, and in the future, it may enter an "atypical recession" with a linear decline in employment and a possible sudden acceleration of weakness [19] - The Phillips curve may flatten in H2 due to inflation, and the labor market may resist inflation, increasing fluctuations [21][23] 1.2 The Prospect of US Economic Stagflation is Becoming More Apparent - The current decline in US inflation data is a reflection of past economic fundamentals. The potential pressure of reciprocal tariffs will push up inflation expectations, and the long - term inflation pressure will be significant [26] - The US economy's downward pressure is increasing, with the deterioration of the household sector's cash - flow and the long - standing problem of credit tightening [28][30] - The pressure of stagflation is shifting from expectation to reality. The end of the inventory - replenishment phase in the corporate sector and the intensification of reciprocal tariffs will exacerbate stagflation [36][37] 1.3 US Dollar: A Clearly Weakening Currency in H2 - In H1 2025, the market accepted the weak - dollar cycle as the high - growth of the US economy, the basis of the strong - dollar cycle, no longer exists [40] - The US Treasury bond issue will become more prominent in H2. The solution to the deficit problem requires liquidity injection, which will lead to a weaker US dollar [44][46] 2. Eurozone and Japan 2.1 Eurozone: Marginal Improvement in Economic Fundamentals - In 2025, the Eurozone's real GDP growth rebounded, inflation continued to decline, and the manufacturing industry recovered faster than the service industry, driving up the debt levels of residents and enterprises [48][57] - The EU's "Re - arming Europe Plan" with 800 billion euros in spending has changed the economic structure of the Eurozone, increasing manufacturing capacity [57] - The ECB will continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will also be strengthened. The euro's appreciation trend will be enhanced [66] 2.2 Japan: Persistent Appreciation Trend - Japan's economic fundamentals have improved, with consumption driving GDP growth. However, there is a divergence between strong consumption and relatively weak industrial production [69][75] - From a fundamental perspective, the yen has a basis for appreciation, but a strong yen will bring challenges to foreign trade and liquidity. The Bank of Japan needs to make a choice on interest - rate policy [85][86] - Considering the US - Japan trade negotiation and market expectations, the yen is likely to appreciate, but the speed of appreciation needs to be controlled [86] 3. Global Macro: Embracing a More Uncertain Second Half - Trump's policies in 2025 have broken the strong - dollar cycle, and the de - globalization narrative has emerged, with the US Treasury bond issue coming to the fore [87] - The extreme and inconsistent policies are due to populism, which exposes the fragility of the US economy and leads to stagflation [87] - Geopolitical risks will rise in H2, which will have a short - term positive impact on the US dollar but a long - term negative impact. The US dollar will continue to weaken [91][92] 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1 The Weak - dollar Trend is Obvious - In H2 2025, the US stagflation pressure will rise, and the Fed will release liquidity, leading to a weaker US dollar with a center around 95 [5][95] 4.2 Continued Recommendation of Safe - haven Assets - In H2, market contradictions and conflicts will accelerate, increasing volatility. Holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to benefit from the inflow of risk-averse funds, with long-term interest rates slightly rising and short-term rates slightly falling [4][20][10] - The A-share market is experiencing a cautious upward trend, with the volatility of major indices at historical lows, suggesting that investors should be wary of potential increases in volatility [25][11] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to continue its consolidation phase, with a focus on potential buying opportunities following a recession narrative [32][12] Group 2 - The report notes that the onshore RMB has depreciated against the USD, but is expected to appreciate towards 7.1, influenced by positive developments in China-US trade relations [6][37] - The commodity market is currently in a bearish trend, with the Wenhua Commodity Index hitting a new low, and investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance [40][41] - Key domestic policies include a call to resist "price war" competition in the automotive sector and a decline in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, indicating economic contraction [46][7]

Group 1 - The core issue is Trump's intention to address the $36 trillion U.S. national debt immediately upon taking office, viewing it as a significant risk that needs to be managed [1] - Trump's team has already announced a major monetary policy involving Bitcoin, which has surged to $100,000 per unit, potentially positioning it as a tool to tackle the national debt [1] - Despite previously opposing cryptocurrencies, Trump has shifted his stance and now supports Bitcoin as part of his strategic planning [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin lacks the credit backing that traditional currencies like gold possess, making it a risky alternative for debt repayment [4][6] - The U.S. has the ability to support the dollar, but the sheer size of the $36 trillion debt complicates matters, as Bitcoin has not yet achieved a status that could replace traditional currencies [6] - The global interest in Bitcoin is rising, with figures like Putin considering its use for international transactions, yet 51 countries have banned Bitcoin trading, indicating significant regulatory challenges [6][8] Group 3 - China's central bank is actively purchasing gold to counter the perceived threat from Bitcoin, aiming to reinforce gold's value as a stable asset [8] - For Trump to successfully use Bitcoin as a debt repayment tool, it would need to surpass gold in value and acceptance, which is currently unlikely given Bitcoin's dependence on the dollar [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tension between Trump, Israel, and the Federal Reserve, highlighting that Trump dislikes interference in his decisions and is currently being pressured by both Israel and the Fed [1][3] - It is noted that a significant portion of the US's $37 trillion debt is held by Jewish financial groups, which are seen as the true creditors [3] - Trump's recent Middle East visit aimed to apply pressure on Jewish financial groups, suggesting that if the debt issue is not resolved, Israel may face consequences [5][7] Group 2 - The article mentions that Trump's approach differs from Biden's, emphasizing that if the US debt were to collapse during his presidency, it would severely impact his family [5] - There is a growing criticism from European countries regarding Israel's military actions, indicating a shift in international sentiment towards Israel [7] - The article suggests that the current geopolitical landscape, especially post-China-US tariff war, necessitates a faster push for peace in the Middle East [7]

Core Viewpoint - The primary focus for the U.S. is addressing the issues surrounding government debt, which is significantly influencing various tariffs, policies, and market sentiment [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Auctions - A large amount of U.S. government debt is maturing at the end of June, leading to a critical 90-day period for stabilization [1] - The recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds was notably poor, resulting in a new high for bond yields [1] - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds, with the final yield at 5.047%, marking the second instance of yields surpassing 5% since the bond's introduction five years ago [1] - The yield from this auction was 24 basis points higher than the 4.810% from April, and the auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.46, the lowest since February [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The pressure on U.S. assets is significant, with indications that the dollar index is likely to continue declining [1] - U.S. stock markets have begun to decline as well, reflecting broader market concerns [1] - Traditionally, rising bond yields would lead to falling gold prices; however, gold is currently rising as an alternative to the dollar [1] - There has been a divergence in the behavior of Treasury bonds and gold, with both previously moving in tandem during times of risk aversion [1] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The range of assets considered safe havens is narrowing, indicating a shift in investment strategies [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent US-China trade negotiations, which resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs and a reduction of certain tariffs, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions between the two countries [1][17] - The negotiations progressed faster than expected, with the US agreeing to only a 10% base tariff instead of the previously proposed 145% [1][4] - The US's approach to the negotiations reflects a sense of urgency from the Trump administration, as they seek to find a way to ease trade tensions without incurring further economic damage [2][5] Group 2 - The current trade situation is characterized by a significant imbalance, with the US imposing additional tariffs on China under the pretext of issues like fentanyl, which complicates the negotiation landscape [4][5] - The upcoming 90-day suspension period is seen as a critical window for China to leverage the US's impending debt crisis as a bargaining chip in future negotiations [10][11] - China's strategy in the negotiations is to maintain a strong position, recognizing that the trade war has impacted the US more significantly than it has affected China [5][17] Group 3 - The historical context of the negotiations indicates that previous experiences with the Trump administration have equipped China with better strategies to handle potential future confrontations [13][14] - The reliance of the US on Chinese supply chains, particularly in areas like rare earth materials, gives China leverage in the negotiations [14] - The overall sentiment is that while the recent negotiations represent a temporary victory for China, there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding future interactions with the Trump administration [9][17]