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制造业采购经理指数(PMI)
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越南、印尼等国制造业持续承压,亚太股市逆势上扬丨东盟观察
Group 1 - The uncertainty of US tariff policies continues to erode external demand for several Asian countries, leading to significant pressure on their manufacturing sectors [1] - The S&P Global reported that Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell below 50 for the second consecutive month, with new export orders contracting for the seventh month in a row [1][2] - Indonesia's new orders saw the largest decline since August 2021, while South Korea's manufacturing output experienced its most significant drop in nearly three years [1][2] Group 2 - The ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48.7 in April to 49.2 in May 2025, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of optimism among manufacturers regarding new orders [2] - Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have PMIs below 50, indicating ongoing contraction in their manufacturing activities [2][3] - The Philippines experienced nearly stagnant manufacturing growth in May, primarily due to a decrease in overseas orders and significant job losses [3] Group 3 - Thailand's manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 in April to 51.2 in May, marking its first expansion since February, with new orders increasing for the first time since December [3] - The manufacturing sectors in Japan and South Korea are also struggling, with Japan's PMI at 49.4 and South Korea's PMI remaining below the neutral level for four consecutive months [3][4] Group 4 - Some countries are heavily reliant on high export profits to the US, lacking preparedness for crises and alternative markets [4] - Input costs are rising due to high energy and raw material prices, with many companies unable to pass these costs onto consumers, squeezing profit margins [4] - The root causes of the manufacturing pressure in Asian countries extend beyond US tariff policies, including weak global demand and inflationary pressures in the US and Europe [4][5] Group 5 - Despite the manufacturing downturn, the Asia-Pacific stock markets have rebounded, with the KOSPI and Jakarta Composite Index entering technical bull markets [2][5] - From April 9 to June 5, significant gains were recorded in various indices, including a 22.6% increase in the KOSPI and a 22.7% increase in the Ho Chi Minh Index [5][6] - The strong performance of the stock markets is attributed to improved expectations for US interest rate cuts and a shift in capital allocation towards emerging markets [6]
伦铜下跌,市场担心美国对铜加征关税
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 09:05
澳新银行研究部称:"美国贸易官员目前正在评估美国铜进口对当地产业的影响,未来几周将有报告出 炉。" 美元指数在盘中稍早触及的六周低点附近徘徊。 据证券时报网报道,6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)录得48.3,较4月下降2.1个 百分点。 其他金属方面,LME三个月期铝跌0.89%,至每吨2,444美元;三个月期锌跌0.44%,至2,686美元;三个 月期铅跌0.58%,至1,969.5美元;三个月期镍跌0.98%,至15,385美元。三个月期锡下跌0.52%,至 30,550美元。 SHMET 网讯: 伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下跌,因市场担心美国可能对铜加征关税,不过美元走软限制跌势。 北京时间16:47,LME三个月期铜下跌0.69%,至每吨9,550美元。 上海期货交易所主力期铜合约下跌0.13%,至每吨77,650元。 据央视新闻报道,当地时间5月30日,美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示,将把进 口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后,特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示,该决定从6月4日起生效。 这再次引发市场对铜可能被征收关税的担忧。 沪铝报每吨19,860元,下 ...
巴菲特四成现金“保命”的高明之处在哪?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 07:21
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to increased economic uncertainty from trade policies [2][3] - In May 2025, all categories of manufacturing output, new orders, employment, and unfilled orders decreased, although the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month [2] - The export sales decline has significantly widened, and the inventory index fell into contraction territory due to companies preemptively purchasing in April out of tariff policy concerns [2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% has escalated tensions between the US and EU, contributing to global economic uncertainty [5] - The ISM reported that the supply delivery index rose to 56.1, indicating supply chain tensions caused by tariffs rather than strong economic demand [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and disappointing economic data has pressured asset prices, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Global Implications - The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged above 5.0%, influenced by poor economic data and concerns over increased government debt issuance [7] - Rising long-term bond yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting household affordability and potentially dragging down overall economic performance [7][8] - If a weak emerging market defaults due to rising debt costs, it could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing global financial markets and hindering international trade and investment [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the accumulating risks in the stock and bond markets, some investors, like Buffett, have shifted their portfolios to hold more cash and short-term bonds to mitigate potential losses [11]
据财新:6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)录得48.3,较4月下降2.1个百分点,2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。
news flash· 2025-06-03 01:49
据财新:6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)录得48.3,较4月下降2.1个百分点, 2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 ...
上升0.5个百分点,最新PMI数据发布​​​
新华网财经· 2025-05-31 03:05
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating an overall expansion in China's economy, while the non-manufacturing sector remains stable but slightly declines [1][6][8]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][3]. - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities [5]. - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new order indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while energy-intensive industries show lower activity with a PMI of 47.0% [5][6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8][11]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday [10]. - The construction industry remains in expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous month [10][11]. Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for May is at 52.5%, reflecting stable confidence among manufacturing enterprises [6]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.5%, indicating ongoing optimism among service providers [10].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250520
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion range [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons on May 19, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 27437 tons to 108142 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, copper prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions shows a mixed situation, with the expectation of volatile copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22]. Other Information - The data source of the report is Wind [10].
“五一”假期部分财经要闻
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-05 14:17
商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况:美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意 商务部新闻发言人2日表示,中方注意到美方高层多次表态,表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同 时,美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息,希望与中方谈起来。对此,中方正在进行评估。 有记者问:近期美方多次表示,正与中方就经贸问题进行谈判,并会达成协议,请问商务部对此有没有 进一步的消息和评论?商务部新闻发言人作出上述回应。 发言人表示,中方立场始终如一,打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开。关税战、贸易战是由美方单方发起 的,美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意,要在纠正错误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备,拿出行 动。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会30日发布数据,受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基 数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响,4月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49%。从重点行业看, 高技术制造业PMI为51.5%,明显高于制造业总体水平,其生产指数和新订单指数均位于52%及以上, 高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。 巴菲特:贸易不应该是武器 美国著名投资人沃伦·巴菲特3日在出席旗下投资机构伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年度股东大会时,批评美国 的贸易保护主 ...
4月PMI回落至收缩区间,高技术制造业依然保持扩张
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-04-30 23:33
Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 51.5%, showing resilience against external pressures, while overall manufacturing production index falls to 49.8% [3][4] - New export orders have significantly declined by 4.3% to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on export orders [3][4] Group 2 - The April PMI for imports decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 43.4%, and the purchasing index fell by 5.5 percentage points to 46.3%, indicating cautious spending by enterprises amid uncertainties [5] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, still above the critical point, but export orders dropped by 7.6 percentage points to 42.2% [6] - The construction sector continues to expand, with the civil engineering PMI rising by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating accelerated project progress [6][7] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index for April is at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates overall expansion in production activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 49.8% and 50.4%, respectively, reflecting stable operations in manufacturing firms focused on domestic sales [7]
49.0%!这一重要指数释放哪些信息
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-04-30 14:16
4月30日,国家统计局发布的数据显示,4月份制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%,比上月下降1.5个 百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%,继续保持在扩张区间。 另外,受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响,主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂 价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%,均比上月下降,制造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。文韬表示,4月份 供需整体的偏弱运行带动了原材料和产成品价格加快下行。 不可否认,外贸环境变化给我国制造业带来一定扰动,市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓,原材料采 购、市场价格等方面也有所波动,但也要看到我国经济底座依然稳固,超大规模市场、完备产业链供应 链体系等优势持续发挥作用,前期出台以及增量可期的一系列有力有效的宏观经济政策能够护航经济行 稳致远。赵庆河也谈到,虽然4月份制造业PMI有所回落,但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张, 以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 从重点行业看,高技术制造业持续向好。高技术制造业PMI为51.5%,明显高于制造业总体水平,其生 产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上。生产经营活动预期指数 ...
5年地债ETF(159972)单日成交额超11亿元、冲击4连涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 06:31
Group 1 - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has seen a 2 basis points increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 115.83 yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the 5-year local government bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.36% [1] - The trading volume for the 5-year local government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 25.62% and a transaction value of 1.175 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] Group 2 - As of April 30, the latest scale of the 5-year local government bond ETF reached 4.588 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting external environmental changes [1] - Despite the decline in PMI, high-tech manufacturing sectors continue to expand, and overall production in domestic manufacturing remains stable [1] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities suggests that the PMI data and the central bank's announcement regarding the scale of reverse repos may act as catalysts for renewed market volatility [2] - There is a potential for manufacturing sector performance to exceed market expectations, particularly in relation to order-related sub-data [2] - The 5-year local government bond ETF is primarily invested in medium to long-term local government bonds, suitable for duration management and wave allocation, offering relatively high yield potential with low credit risk [2]