Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, indicating a decline from the previous month [1][2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, showing continued expansion in manufacturing production [2] - New orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in market demand [2] - Certain industries, such as agricultural processing and aerospace, show strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like automotive and fuel processing are below the critical point [2] - Price indices for raw materials and factory output have risen, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking an improvement in overall market prices [2] Group 2: Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises have PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, showing a decline [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend [3] - Consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, indicating a downturn in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, reflecting a decrease from the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with financial services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector is below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index has dropped to 48.8%, indicating a significant decline in activity due to seasonal factors [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities compared to the previous month [5] - The manufacturing production index is at 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, contributing to the composite index's decline [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2][3] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium enterprises show lower PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in economic activity [4] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector [7] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector's index dropped below 40.0% [7] - The construction sector's business activity index decreased to 48.8%, indicating a significant decline in activity due to adverse weather and upcoming holidays [7] Group 3: Overall Economic Indicators - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [8] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the overall PMI output index [8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in economic activity [3] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9% [3] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices increased to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4% in January, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index decreased slightly to 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector dropped below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell significantly to 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday, indicating a notable decline in construction activity [4] Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the composite PMI's decline [5]

Core Insights - The overall market for China's export container shipping remains stable, with varying trends across different routes due to fundamental differences [1][2][3] Group 1: China Export Container Shipping Market - The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index is at 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period [1] - The official composite PMI for China in December 2025 is 50.7, up 1 percentage point, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [1] Group 2: European Route - The Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in November 2025, the first decline since April of the previous year, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - The shipping rate from Shanghai to European ports is $1719/TEU, up 1.7% from the previous period [2] - The Mediterranean route shows similar trends, with rates at $3232/TEU, up 2.8% [2] Group 3: North American Route - The U.S. private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, reversing the previous month's decline, signaling a positive trend in the labor market [2] - Shipping rates from Shanghai to the West Coast and East Coast of the U.S. are $2218/FEU and $3128/FEU, up 1.4% and 3.1% respectively [2] Group 4: Other Routes - The shipping rate from Shanghai to the Persian Gulf is $1981/TEU, down 6.6% due to a lack of growth momentum [3] - The rate to Australia and New Zealand is $1281/TEU, down 4.8%, reflecting a poor supply-demand balance [3] - The rate to South America is $1208/TEU, down 6.5%, indicating weak demand [3] - The shipping market to Japan remains stable, with the rate index at 946.05 points [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +3.23% and an amplitude of 6.85%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 101,410 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed the hope to lower interest rates, and Fed Governor Milan expected a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026 [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, all rising to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC processing index is running at a low level, and the domestic copper mine supply is still tight, providing strong cost support for copper prices. Smelters are still actively producing due to high copper and by - product prices, with a slight increase expected in January production. However, downstream procurement is cautious due to high copper prices, and new orders are limited in the off - season, leading to light trading in the spot market and an accumulation of industrial inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 1,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,715 yuan/ton. The contract price was 101,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,170 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 188,674 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 19,572 lots [12]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,390 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 790 yuan/ton [18]. - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 46 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 68,487 lots, a decrease of 22,623 lots from last week [22]. 3.3 Option Market - As of January 9, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.669, a decrease of 0.0002 from last week [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,430 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper was 2,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton [31]. - **Import and Spread**: In November 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from October, a growth of 3.05% and a year - on - year growth of 12.55%. The tax - included scrap - refined copper price spread was 6,022.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,197.27 yuan/ton [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: In October 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,938 thousand tons, an increase of 37 thousand tons from September, a growth of 1.95%. The global capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from September. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from October, a growth of 2.66% and a year - on - year growth of 9.09%. The global monthly production of refined copper was 2,386 thousand tons, an increase of 21 thousand tons from September, a growth of 0.89%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 2.1% from September. The monthly import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a decrease of 18,404.29 tons from October, a decline of 5.7% and a year - on - year decline of 23.47%. The import profit and loss was 1,009.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,572.42 yuan/ton. The LME total inventory decreased by 4,250 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 15,116 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29,441 tons. The total social inventory was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from last week [43][49][55]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Demand - Side**: In November 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from October, a growth of 11.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 18.87% [61]. - **Application - Side**: In November 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in power source construction decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. The monthly production of washing machines, refrigerators, and freezers increased by 5.5%, 5.6%, and 3.6% year - on - year respectively, while the production of air conditioners and color TVs decreased by 23.4% and 5% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43.184 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [65][71]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, in October 2025, the global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 1,400 tons [77][78].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China showed signs of recovery in December 2025, with key indices rising above the expansion threshold, indicating improved economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April [1]. - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [1]. - The production index and new orders index were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating positive growth trends [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively [3]. - The procurement activity accelerated with a procurement volume index of 51.1%, entering the expansion zone [2]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4]. - The new orders index for non-manufacturing rose to 47.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, reaching the highest level this year [4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 56.5%, reflecting a continuous increase for three months, indicating rising market confidence [4]. - The construction industry saw a significant improvement, with the business activity index at 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. Composite Index - The Composite PMI Output Index reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point, indicating overall expansion in production and operational activities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, as indicated by the rise in manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, suggesting a recovery in economic activity and market confidence [1][2][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking its first entry into the expansion zone since April 2025, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing improvement [1][2]. - The New Orders Index rose to 50.8%, increasing by 1.6 percentage points, indicating a release of market demand after five months below 50% [2]. - The Production Index increased to 51.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points, reflecting a positive expansion in manufacturing activities [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.5%, up by 2.4 percentage points, indicating a favorable growth trend [2]. - Large enterprises' PMI reached 50.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, with significant increases in both production and new orders indices [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in non-manufacturing activities [4]. - The Business Activity Expectation Index for non-manufacturing reached 56.5%, reflecting a continuous upward trend and strong market expectations [4]. - The construction sector showed significant improvement, with the Business Activity Index at 52.8%, up by 3.2 percentage points, driven by seasonal factors and project acceleration [4]. Economic Outlook - Experts indicate that the combination of effective economic policies and market dynamics is expected to lead to steady growth in the manufacturing sector in 2026, with both qualitative and quantitative improvements anticipated [3][5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - December Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first entry into the expansion zone since April 2025[2] - Production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, while new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved production and demand[12] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, supporting the manufacturing recovery, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 48.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges[18] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - December Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone, showing improvement from November[3] - Construction PMI recorded at 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, driven by favorable weather and accelerated project progress[25] - Service sector Business Activity Index increased to 49.7%, still in contraction, with significant variation across industries, indicating a slow recovery[25] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Overall PMI data for December reflects a phase of economic recovery, confirming the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[5] - Anticipated economic expansion supported by upcoming consumption peaks and infrastructure projects, alongside a special bond issuance plan of 62.5 billion yuan to stimulate consumption[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slow global economic recovery, and insufficient domestic demand[6]

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showed signs of recovery in December, indicating an overall improvement in economic conditions [1][3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in December, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking its first increase above 50% after eight consecutive months below this threshold [3]. - Among 13 sub-indices, production, new orders, and new export orders indices showed increases, with rises ranging from 0.1 to 2.4 percentage points [3]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating a positive growth trend [4]. - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points respectively [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The financial sector's business activity index and new orders index both exceeded 60%, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy [6]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, ending a four-month period below 50% [6]. Business Expectations - The manufacturing production activity expectation index reached 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, the highest since April 2024 [8]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index increased to 56.4%, reflecting continued optimism among businesses [8]. - The central economic work conference has laid out clear policies for economic development in 2026, which are expected to provide guidance and momentum for macroeconomic growth [8]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment is expected to improve in 2026, supported by a stable trade environment and proactive economic policies [9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to guide economic and social development over the next five years, with a focus on enhancing investment and consumption demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite output all rose above the expansion threshold, indicating an overall recovery in the economic climate [2][6]. Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, marking its first rise above the expansion threshold since April, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing improvement [3][7]. - The production index and new orders index were at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [3][10]. - Large enterprises saw a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 49.8% and 48.6%, indicating varying levels of economic recovery [3][10]. Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion [5][19]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, reflecting significant improvement due to favorable weather and pre-holiday construction activity [5][16]. - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, showing a slight increase but remaining below the expansion threshold [5][19]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [6][24]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively, contributing to the composite index's rise [6][24]. Industry-Specific Insights - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.5%, indicating a positive growth trend, while energy-intensive industries reported a PMI of 48.9%, still below the expansion threshold [4][10]. - The expectation index for production and business activities rose to 55.5%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [4][21].