ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 白素娜 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号: F3023916 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/03 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 贵金属与新能源研究中心 SMM. 公升新闻整 据来源: 锂化合物 平均价 100000 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 94400 50 2500 SMM工业级碳酸锂 91950 50 2000 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2607 96180 -0.72% 碳酸锂2608 96500 -0. 88% 40000 碳酸锂2609 -0. 94% 96440 碳酸锂2610 96440 -0. 64% 500 碳酸锂2611 96240 -0. 82% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1184 -6 = (120.5 5%-6%) 种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 95626 H # 利 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -2534 >EE 94173 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -3390 本周碳酸锂减产265吨,去库2452吨 行 小 国家发展 ...

在全球能源转型的十字路口，中美两国做出了截然不同的战略选择。一边是向后看，聚焦短期安全与独 立的务实转身；一边是向前看，构建新能源体系根基的系统布局。在这一战略分化的背景下，坤元资产 FOF生态圈伙伴阿特斯阳光、中创新航和星环聚能等企业，前瞻国家政策导向，交出了一份关于聚集绿 色和可持续发展的"智慧"答卷。 战略分化：美国加固"基座" 中国锻造"枢纽" 11月20日，美国能源部宣布重组，撤销多个清洁能源办公室，转向传统化石燃料和核能。"这不是简单 的能源回调，而是为应对AI时代电力危机所进行的国家级战略再配置。"行业专家指出，美国能源部的 重组实质上是针对AI算力需求爆发的"战时动员"。 迅猛发展的人工智能，使数据中心变成前所未有的"电老虎"，让本已老化的美国电网不堪重负。训练一 次尖端大模型的耗电量高达110亿度，相当于百万家庭一年的用电总量。而间歇性的风光电力"远水难救 近火"，迫使当局做出战略转向：削减部分清洁能源机构，转而重注于化石燃料与核能。 这一选择，本质是重新强化能源的"源头"供应。美国能源部计划采购多达10座新建大型核反应堆，科技 巨头也将核能纳入其能源蓝图。尽管被裁撤的清洁能源办公室曾支撑起 ...

Policy Planning - Ningxia's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the promotion of new energy consumption models and the multi-dimensional interaction of source, grid, load, and storage [1][12] - Shenzhen, Guangdong, is soliciting opinions on measures to accelerate the development of virtual power plants, aiming to integrate distributed photovoltaic projects into the virtual power plant management platform [1][12] Key Enterprises - CRRC Zhuzhou Institute has successfully achieved mass production and delivery of its new generation 6.X energy storage platform, with a 6.25MWh battery cabin and a matching 6.25MW integrated boost converter [1][13] - Huawei Digital Energy has completed large-scale combustion testing of its commercial liquid-cooled energy storage solution, setting a new safety benchmark in the industry [2][14] Project Progress - Qinghai Province has announced its first batch of 2.2GW green electricity direct connection projects, totaling 2237.93MW, including various types such as photovoltaic and wind power [4][16] - The world's first single-channel gravity energy storage equipment has successfully connected to the grid in Xiangjiadang, marking a significant technological breakthrough in gravity energy storage [4][16] - The 200MW/800MWh independent energy storage project in Xinjiang has completed the installation of key equipment, laying a solid foundation for its commissioning [4][16] - Wolong New Energy is investing 804 million yuan in a grid-side independent energy storage demonstration project in Baotou [6][18] - The largest independent new energy storage power station in Inner Mongolia, with a capacity of 500MW/2GWh, has been put into operation [6][19] Overseas News - Statera Energy has secured £235 million in debt financing for its 680MW/1360MWh battery storage project in Manchester, UK, expected to start construction in autumn 2025 [8][21] - Greece's electricity market has become the fourth cheapest in Europe, with a price of €101.19 per MWh, benefiting from sufficient gas-fired generation resources [8][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market's core focus is on demand changes, with weekly demand essentially stable, providing price support. In the medium - term, due to the ongoing release of energy storage demand, prices are bullish, but there is a callback pressure on prices in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Mica and Phosphorus Lithium Alum Stone Prices - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,665 yuan, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,600 yuan, phosphorus lithium alum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 9,125 yuan, and phosphorus lithium alum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 10,525 yuan [2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,485 yuan, up 145 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,800 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,600 yuan, up 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,750 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.1 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2,590 yuan, up 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan, down 60 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, down 300 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 115,968 tons, with a decrease of 2,452 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,984 tons, with a decrease of 2,452 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 49,660 tons, with an increase of 1,780 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 8,222 tons, with an increase of 2,781 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 95,970 yuan, and the profit is - 2,927 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 94,750 yuan, and the profit is - 4,016 yuan [3] Industry News - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2,452 tons [3] - The installed capacity of new energy storage in China exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan, accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity [3] - During this year's peak summer period, the peak call of new energy storage in China exceeded 30 million kilowatts, 1.3 times the full - load power of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station [3] - The market expects that the mining license for Ningde Times' Xiakeng Mine will be issued in mid - January at the latest and possibly in December at the earliest, and its impact on prices will gradually decrease [3]

Core Insights - The company, Dongfang Risen, is focusing on providing integrated energy storage solutions, including BMS, PCS, EMS, and various integrated systems, emphasizing high safety, energy density, and reliability [1] - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating a cumulative installed capacity of 73.76 million kW by the end of 2024, representing a 130% increase compared to the end of 2023 [2] - Dongfang Risen has achieved a remarkable safety record with zero accidents globally, enhancing its reputation in the energy storage sector [3] Group 1: Company Developments - Dongfang Risen's energy storage products include the new generation eTron (5MWh system) and iCon (100kW/215kWh commercial unit), which have been successfully deployed in developed markets like Europe and North America [1] - The company has established three major energy storage solutions—Shengjia, Shengqi, and Shengneng—targeting residential, commercial, and large-scale energy storage applications [2] - In the first half of 2025, Dongfang Risen's global energy storage shipments increased by 192% year-on-year, with commercial energy storage shipments rising by 74% [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The Chinese government is promoting the development of new energy storage technologies, creating a historic opportunity for the industry [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to diversify and expand significantly, with forecasts indicating a growth to 87.45 million kW by 2025 and 98.60 million kW by 2026 [2] - Dongfang Risen is actively expanding its global market presence, participating in numerous renewable energy projects across Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other regions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's new energy storage industry is experiencing rapid manufacturing expansion but faces challenges in local installation and consumption, leading to a "high capacity, low utilization" phenomenon. The province has established a leading "1+N+N" policy system for new energy storage, shifting focus from industry cultivation to electricity market mechanism construction to promote deep integration of storage and power systems [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Evolution and Key Analysis - Guangdong has positioned the new energy storage industry as a new economic growth driver, with the "Guiding Opinions" issued in 2023 marking a transition from catalytic support to market-oriented institutional arrangements [3][4]. - The development of energy storage policies in Guangdong has gone through three stages: early cultivation (2022 to early 2023), scale expansion (2023), and quality enhancement (post-2024) [4][5]. - The second stage aims to establish energy storage as a strategic pillar industry, leading to a complete "1+N+N" policy system, while the third stage focuses on integrating storage with the power system through performance-based subsidies and market participation rules [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Logic Upgrade - Guangdong has developed battery industry clusters in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but the market application scenarios for energy storage products remain underdeveloped, leading to a disconnect between supply and demand [5][6]. - To address this, the provincial government has launched initiatives to promote diverse application scenarios for energy storage, including low-carbon industrial parks and data centers, aiming to expand demand-side opportunities [6][7]. - The transition from a single manufacturing focus to a closed-loop model of manufacturing, application, and operation is crucial for sustainable development [6][7]. Group 3: Policy and Market Coordination - The rapid expansion of energy storage capacity has led to a misalignment between industry policies that push for growth and electricity policies that focus on operational efficiency and market returns [11][12]. - The current policy framework emphasizes hardware metrics like capacity and investment, while electricity policies prioritize operational contributions, creating a disconnect in objectives and evaluation [17][18]. - This misalignment has resulted in a structural dilemma where production capacity exceeds market demand, leading to underutilized projects and reduced investment confidence [15][18]. Group 4: Recommendations - To resolve the "high investment, low consumption" dilemma, a more systematic and coordinated policy framework is needed, combining push and pull mechanisms to foster high-quality development in the energy storage sector [19][20]. - Establishing a planning and evaluation system based on the actual value of energy storage in the power system is essential, guiding the layout of storage projects according to regional demand [20][21]. - Enhancing the synergy between storage policies and market dynamics, while promoting innovative business models, will broaden revenue sources and improve overall operational efficiency [21][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market mainly focuses on demand changes, with weekly demand remaining stable and prices being supported. In the medium - term, due to the release of energy storage demand, prices tend to rise, but there is downward pressure on prices in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 93,750 yuan, up 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 91,300 yuan, up 450 yuan [1] Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 94,560 yuan, down 0.32%; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 94,640 yuan, down 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 94,700 yuan, down 0.5%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 94,800 yuan, down 0.59%; lithium carbonate 2604 has a closing price of 96,260 yuan, down 0.84% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has a price of 1,150 yuan, up 24 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 1,665 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 2,600 yuan, up 10 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has a price of 9,125 yuan, up 225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has a price of 10,525 yuan, up 275 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,340 yuan, up 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,700 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,400 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,650 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2,670 yuan, down 150 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan, down 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 140 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 115,968 tons, down 2,452 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 24,324 tons, down 1,780 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,984 tons, down 2,452 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 49,660 tons, up 1,780 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,441 tons, down 21,340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan, with a profit of - 1,012 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 94,750 yuan, with a profit of - 4,604 yuan [3] Industry News - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2,452 tons; the national new - type energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan", accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity [3] Market Expectation - The market expects that the permit for Ningde Times' Xiawo Mine will be issued in mid - January at the latest, and possibly in December at the earliest, and the subsequent impact on the ore price will gradually decrease [3]

Core Viewpoint - The event "I am a Shareholder - Entering the Shanghai Stock Market Listed Companies" was successfully held at the South Grid Energy Storage Co., Ltd., showcasing the company's advancements in pumped storage and new energy storage sectors [1] Group 1: Project Development - South Grid Energy Storage currently has 10 pumped storage projects under construction, with a total installed capacity of 12 million kilowatts [2] - The Meizhou (Phase II) project has been put into operation, while the Nanning project is expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [2] - The company has over 10 million kilowatts of pumped storage reserve projects that will be advanced according to national planning and power system demand [2] Group 2: Pricing and Policy - The company addressed investor concerns regarding pricing policies, indicating that future revenues from new pumped storage stations may increasingly depend on market competitiveness, as per the National Development and Reform Commission's document No. 633 [2] Group 3: New Energy Storage Development - In response to the "dual carbon" goals, the company is actively researching its "14th Five-Year" development plan, focusing on various technologies including sodium-ion, flow, compressed air, and gravity storage, in addition to lithium batteries [3] - The Yunnan Qiubei Baochi storage station is currently demonstrating the application of both lithium and sodium batteries [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - With the large-scale integration of renewable energy into the grid, the demand for pumped storage and new energy storage is continuously growing [4] - The company aims to accelerate project construction to achieve early production and benefits, while also expanding into strategic emerging businesses and international markets to create a "second growth curve" [4] - The Nanning pumped storage power station, a major project under the national "14th Five-Year" plan, has a total reservoir capacity of 13.4 million cubic meters and an installed capacity of 1.2 million kilowatts, expected to be operational by the end of the year, providing 2.5 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy annually [4]

2019年的新能源圈，简直是"冰火两重天"。 一边是动力电池赛道的狂欢：资本热钱扎堆涌入，融资新闻刷爆行业头条，厂房扩建的塔吊昼夜不停， 连路边的创业咖啡店里，都在聊"动力电池产能竞赛"；另一边的储能领域，却正遭遇政策"寒流"的双重 暴击—— 2019年5月发改委印发《输配电定价成本监审办法》，明确储能设施不得计入输配电价，直接切断了电 网侧储能的核心盈利渠道；11月国家电网再出重拳，发布《关于进一步严格控制电网投资的通知》，严 禁以任何形式开展电网侧电化学储能建设。 彼时的储能行业，就像被按下了"暂停键"：资本纷纷撤场，从业者要么转投动力电池，要么干脆告别行 业。更残酷的是，当时新能源领域的政策红利几乎全向动力电池倾斜，储能不仅没补贴，连市场准入都 困难重重。 就在这样的时刻，海辰储能悄悄敲开了大门。几个创始人在租来的办公室里拍板：不蹭动力电池的热 点，把所有资源都砸进没人看好的储能赛道。消息传出去，不少同行都觉得"看不懂"："放着热钱不 赚，去啃储能这块硬骨头，这是要自讨苦吃？"但海辰的管理层却看得很明白："动力电池解决的是'车 跑起来'的问题，可新能源要真正改变世界能源结构，得靠储能来'存住电'啊！" ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth and opportunities in the energy storage industry, particularly in the context of power market reforms and digitalization [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The global energy storage market is entering a "blowout period," with an increase in both project numbers and product specifications, leading to a tight supply of energy storage PCS (Power Conversion Systems) [3]. - The mainstream price range for 2.5MW PCS is between 0.075-0.078 yuan/W, with a penetration rate rapidly increasing to 70%-80%, making it the current industry standard [7][8]. Group 2: Company Developments - CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Co., Ltd. (中车时代电气) has received over 2GW in orders for its liquid-cooled centralized storage PCS-2.5MW, which has passed national standard certification [4][8]. - Other companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, Shenghong Electric, and Kehua Data have also actively positioned themselves in the energy storage market [5]. Group 3: Product Innovations - The 2.5MW liquid-cooled centralized storage PCS developed by CRRC Zhuzhou Electric features a response time of 5 milliseconds and can handle overload outputs of three times the rated current within 10 seconds [4][7]. - The industry is transitioning towards 3MW+ PCS models, with companies like Xingyun Co., Ltd. and CRRC Zhuzhou Electric releasing models ranging from 3.2MW to 3.5MW to match larger capacity storage systems [10]. Group 4: Market Challenges - Transitioning from 2.5MW to 3MW+ PCS involves overcoming multiple technical challenges, including increased cooling requirements and the need for more complex control algorithms [11]. - The delivery cycle for large PCS has extended from 45 days to 75 days due to increased demand and supply chain constraints [13].