Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Upstream production cuts in the industrial silicon sector have been implemented, providing support for prices. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions in the polysilicon market [1]. - In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of nearly 11%. The growth rate was 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points higher than that of infrastructure and manufacturing respectively. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking 1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 30 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 135 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 557,616 lots, with an increase of 257,384 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 327,652 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 175,201 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 236,627 lots, a decrease of 26 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 5,193 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 15,562 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - PS2605: The closing price was 47,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 3,580 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 19,537 lots, an increase of 3,911 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 6,094 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 42,513 lots, a decrease of 232 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 1,222 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. 1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium against East China Si5530 was +400 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was +3165 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 1.3 Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 51300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 2700 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 1100 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon (photovoltaic): The prices of relevant products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 13900 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and an increase of 300 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 24350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1950 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.4 Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2206.5 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5414 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 1.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The profit of DMC enterprises was 1830 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, a decrease of 46 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 101 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 420 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 290 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 20.9 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.3 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 76.3 tons, a decrease of 0.61 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.04 tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 7.0 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 33.3 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 2.7 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.6 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke was 1400 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze coke was 2340 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes was 12450 yuan/ton, and the price of carbon electrodes was 7200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration held a press conference. In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year - on - year increase of nearly 11%. Five provinces (autonomous regions) including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu completed investments of over 200 billion yuan. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].

Group 1 - The Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 will start on February 2 and end on March 13 [2] - The AWE Asia 2026 will be held in Singapore from February 2 to 4 [3] - Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging will resume trading on February 2 after completing their verification work [4] - Minexplosion Optoelectronics will resume trading on February 2, planning to acquire a PCB drilling needle target [5] - Yisiwei will issue shares on February 2 with a price of 55.95 yuan and a P/E ratio of 90.39 times, focusing on automotive manufacturing machine vision equipment [5] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is improving the strategic investor system for listed companies, expanding the types of strategic investors and clarifying minimum shareholding requirements [7] - Public fund information disclosure rules are undergoing significant revisions, requiring the disclosure of long-term performance over the past 7 and 10 years [8] - The manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing optimization in the manufacturing industry structure [8] - The draft of the Cybercrime Prevention Law has been released for public consultation, aiming to clarify real-name system requirements to curb online crime [8] - Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell below $4,800 per ounce, marking a drop of over 10%, the largest single-day decline since the 1980s [8] Group 3 - The capacity price mechanism for electricity has been established, which is expected to accelerate the development of new energy storage [13] - The new policy will promote the development of the storage sector, addressing bottlenecks in the current power system [13] - Domestic new energy storage's flexible adjustment capabilities are increasingly prominent, enhancing the stability and safety of the power system [13] - Yangguang Power's storage shipments are expected to grow by 70% year-on-year by Q3 2025, with overseas shipments increasing from 63% to 83% [13] Group 4 - The global demand for transformers is surging, with orders for some factories extending to 2027 due to the rapid growth of AI computing power [15] - The supply gap for power transformers in North America has reached 30%, with imports expected to account for 80% of the supply [15] - The average export price of transformers from China has risen from $12,000 per unit in 2020 to $20,800 by 2025, indicating a potential increase in both volume and price [15] Group 5 - Yuanbao has launched a 1 billion yuan cash red envelope campaign, intensifying competition in the AI application market [17] - Major AI assistant apps from Tencent and ByteDance are leading the free app rankings, indicating strong market competition [17] - Companies like Runjian Co. and iFLYTEK are advancing their AI models and services, aiming for significant growth in user scale and commercialization [18] Group 6 - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 89.5% to 128.2% [20] - New Yiseng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 231.2% to 248.9% [20] - Runze Technology forecasts a net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179.3% to 196.0% [20] - Jerey Co. signed a gas turbine generator sales contract worth $182 million (approximately 1.265 billion yuan) for data center power supply [21]

图为新疆生产建设兵团第六师北塔山牧场风光电场。近年来，当地深挖资源优势，利用荒山坡地大力发 展风光电产业，有力推动新能源产业高质量发展。 李华北摄（人民视觉） 国家能源局近日举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年全国能源形势。国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾在会 上表示，2025年，我国能源供应保障能力有效提升，供需总体宽松，多项重要政策举措密集出台，行业 健康有序发展，新型能源体系建设基础持续夯实，助力我国经济持续回升向好。 绿色低碳转型步伐加快 谈及2025年能源行业，邢翼腾重点介绍了3方面成效： 能源安全保障有力有效。2025年是"十四五"以来能源保供成效最好的一年。原煤生产保持稳定，规上工 业原煤产量同比增长1.2%。油、气产量双创历史新高，规上工业原油产量同比增长1.5%，规上工业天 然气产量同比增长6.2%。电力供应平稳有序，一批特高压直流输电工程投产送电，电力系统互补互济 水平持续提升。 绿色低碳转型步伐加快。有关部门制定出台新能源集成融合发展、促进新能源消纳和调控等一系列政策 措施，助力新能源发展提质增效。全年风电光伏新增装机超过4.3亿千瓦、累计装机规模突破18亿千 瓦，可再生能源发电装机占比超过六 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of Document No. 114 marks a significant policy breakthrough for the new energy storage industry in China, establishing the capacity value of new energy storage from a national institutional level and promoting the development of a new power system [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Implications - Document No. 114 introduces a new pricing mechanism for energy storage, addressing structural contradictions in the existing capacity pricing system, such as declining coal power utilization hours and the lack of cost recovery channels for pumped storage projects [2][3] - The document elevates the status of energy storage within the power system, transitioning it from a marginal role to a core position, thus enhancing its market positioning and revenue mechanisms [2][3] - The policy aims to improve the flexibility of the new power system while meeting market demands, as part of a broader effort to reform the electricity market [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new policy is expected to lead to a transformation in the profitability model for energy storage, shifting from a reliance on peak-valley arbitrage to a multi-revenue model that includes capacity revenue, energy revenue, and ancillary service revenue [4][5] - The document signals a recognition of the capacity value of energy storage, paving the way for commercial energy storage to participate in the capacity market and explore new business models such as "shared storage + capacity leasing" [5][6] - Companies like Sungrow and Haibo Shichuang are adapting their strategies to align with the new policy, focusing on integrated solutions that combine energy generation and storage [5][6] Group 3: Industry Growth and Challenges - By the end of 2025, China's new energy storage installed capacity is projected to reach 136 million kilowatts, with a significant increase in utilization hours, highlighting the growing importance of energy storage as a stabilizer and regulator in the power system [1][8] - The policy encourages the development of flexible consumption capabilities among end-users, which is essential for maximizing the utilization of renewable energy sources [8] - The document emphasizes the need for improved energy consumption capacity to address the mismatch between renewable energy supply in the western regions and demand in the eastern regions, which is a critical bottleneck for high-quality, large-scale development of renewable energy [7][8]

Core Insights - The new energy storage capacity in China is projected to grow by 84% by the end of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, reaching 136 million kilowatts and 351 million kilowatt-hours, marking a more than 40-fold increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - New energy storage is transitioning from a supplementary role in renewable energy to a core hub in the energy revolution, driven by dual goals of carbon neutrality and the construction of a new power system [1][3] Policy Support - The top-level design has set clear directions for the industry, with strategic goals established since the 14th Five-Year Plan, including a target of over 30 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2025 [1][2] - A series of supportive policies covering construction management, market mechanisms, and technological innovation have been introduced to lay a solid foundation for the high-quality development of the new energy storage industry [1] Market Demand - By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of solar and wind energy in China is expected to reach 1.84 billion kilowatts, accounting for 47.3% of the total installed capacity, which intensifies the demand for new energy storage [2] - New energy storage systems can effectively smooth out the volatility of renewable energy generation, enhancing stability and predictability, thereby significantly improving the grid's capacity to absorb renewable energy [2] Technological Advancements - The current landscape of new energy storage in China features a leading role for lithium-ion battery storage, alongside the collaborative development of compressed air storage, flow battery storage, and flywheel storage technologies [2] - The continuous improvement in the domestic production rate of core equipment has led to a reasonable decline in storage system prices, making large-scale commercial applications feasible [2] Industry Growth - Over the past five years, the installed capacity of new energy storage has experienced a more than 40-fold increase, reflecting both the industry's growth miracle and China's commitment to energy transition [3] - As the country aims to establish a new energy system by 2030, with renewable energy generation accounting for over 50% of total power generation, new energy storage is expected to further facilitate the transition of renewable energy from a supplementary to a primary energy source [3]

Core Viewpoint - Weiyuan Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previously seeking opportunities on the A-share Growth Enterprise Market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Weiyuan Energy is a digital energy solutions provider focused on the Chinese market while expanding globally, specializing in smart distribution networks, data centers, and new energy storage [2]. - The company offers a range of products and solutions, including smart switchgear, efficient transformers, power distribution modules, and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems, aimed at ensuring reliable and efficient power distribution [2]. - Weiyuan Energy's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023, 2024, and 2025 was 2.485 billion, 2.903 billion, and 1.967 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 105 million, 200 million, and 181 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Business Segments and Growth - The company's revenue growth is primarily driven by its smart distribution network and data center segments [3]. - The funds raised from the listing will be used to establish a new production and operation center in East China, upgrade the headquarters' production base digitally, enhance R&D and product iteration capabilities, and expand marketing and after-sales service infrastructure [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The industry in which Weiyuan Energy operates is highly competitive, with significant revenue concentration from five major clients, accounting for 47.7%, 41.2%, and 47.5% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [4]. - The company sources its main raw materials domestically, including bulk materials like copper, structural materials like sheet metal, and functional materials such as electrical components [4]. - The procurement amounts from five major suppliers represented 21.5%, 15.7%, and 15.2% of total procurement in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the upgrade of the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which is expected to benefit new energy storage significantly. The policy aims to stabilize income for independent energy storage systems and recognizes their role in ensuring the safety and stability of the power system [5][6] - New energy storage is identified as the biggest beneficiary of the new policy, with several provinces already implementing compensation policies. This shift is expected to enhance the market's ability to attract investment in new energy storage [5][6] - The report suggests that the industry will enter an accelerated construction phase due to the clarified capacity value of new energy storage, with a focus on leading companies with technological advantages and rich project reserves [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report provides a performance overview for the past year, indicating a relative return of 25.5% over 12 months and an absolute return of 48.8% [4] Policy Impact - The new capacity pricing mechanism includes provisions for coal, gas, pumped storage, and independent new energy storage, with coal's fixed cost recovery ratio set to be no less than 50% [5] - The policy establishes clear industry thresholds and emphasizes a "stronger support" approach, which may lead to increased differentiation within the industry [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading new energy storage companies, particularly those involved in long-duration storage and grid-connecting technologies. Suggested companies include Sunshine Power, Haibo Technology, CATL, and others [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the impact of Document No. 114 on the energy storage and lithium carbonate sectors [1] - On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Tariff Mechanism on the Power Generation Side", aiming to support energy transformation [3][8] - The notice and the 15th Five - Year Plan form policy synergy, and the new energy storage in China has entered a new stage of large - scale development [3] - In the next 5 years, new energy storage will steadily reach 642GW, doubling the 15th Five - Year Plan target, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%, and will drive the demand for lithium carbonate to increase by nearly 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Hedging Strategy - In the short term, it will continue to support the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices [4] Group 3: Core Content of the Notice - The notice constructs a "classified improvement + unified compensation + supporting optimization" system, filling the gap in the capacity tariff for independent new energy storage on the power grid side [9] - The classified capacity tariff mechanism is established, and a unified compensation mechanism for reliable capacity is set up after the continuous operation of the spot market, covering coal - fired power, gas - fired power, and eligible independent new energy storage on the power grid side [9] - Supporting measures include adjusting the lower limit of the medium - and long - term transaction price of coal - fired power, standardizing the settlement of energy storage charging and discharging electricity fees, and optimizing the cost sharing of regional pumped - storage [9] Group 4: Core Policies for Different Power Sources - For coal - fired and gas - fired power, the proportion of fixed cost recovery by coal - fired power capacity tariff is ≥50%, and gas - fired power can establish a capacity tariff [10] - For pumped - storage, existing projects maintain government pricing, and new projects adopt a "unified capacity tariff + market revenue sharing" model [10] - For independent new energy storage on the power grid side, capacity tariff can be given, calculated according to the coal - fired power capacity tariff standard combined with peak - shaving capacity, and managed by a list system [10] Group 5: Core Impact on the Energy Storage Industry - Policy synergy: The capacity tariff policy in the notice activates the energy storage market, promoting new energy storage to move from a "supplementary role" to a "main support" [11] - Technical orientation: Focus on long - duration energy storage, promoting the transformation of lithium - ion batteries and the large - scale development of non - lithium long - duration energy storage and sodium - ion batteries [11] - Market expansion: The notice helps to achieve the 300GW new energy storage installation target in the 15th Five - Year Plan [11][12] - Industrial linkage: It drives the growth of demand in the energy storage industry chain and upstream raw materials, and promotes the technological iteration of non - lithium energy storage [11] Group 6: New Energy Storage Installation Forecast - From 2026 - 2030, the cumulative new installation of new energy storage will reach nearly 500GW, and the cumulative installation will increase from 144.7GW to over 640GW [12] - From 2026 - 2029, it is a steady promotion period with a gradually slowing growth rate, and in 2030, new installation will decline [12][16] - Sodium - ion batteries and other technologies will penetrate at a moderate pace, and long - duration energy storage will become the mainstream in 2030 [12][16] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Demand Calculation - Core assumptions include the proportion of different technical routes, consumption standards, and conversion standards [14] - From 2026 - 2030, the cumulative new installation of new energy storage will be close to 500GW, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.2%, and will drive the demand for lithium carbonate to change [14][15][16] - The demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 12.30 million tons in 2025 to 23.43 million tons in 2029, and then drop to 12.66 million tons in 2030 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage industry in China has experienced significant growth, with a total installed capacity of 66.43 GW and energy capacity of 189.48 GWh added in 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 52% and 73% respectively. The industry is expected to continue evolving towards longer-duration energy storage solutions and deeper integration with renewable energy sources [3][41][95]. Group 1: Industry Development Overview - In 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 213.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54% [13]. - The average storage duration for new energy storage systems has gradually increased from 2.11 hours in 2021 to 2.58 hours in 2025, with projections indicating it could reach 3.47 hours by 2030 [95]. - The top ten provinces in China accounted for nearly 90% of the total installed capacity, with Inner Mongolia leading in both energy and power capacity, surpassing California to become the world's top province [3][48]. Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The growth rate of new energy storage installations is expected to slow down, but the large base will still generate significant absolute increments, with projections suggesting a cumulative installed capacity of over 370 million kW by 2030 [4]. - The market is transitioning from policy-driven growth to market-driven high-quality development, with expected annual compound growth rates of 20.7% to 25.5% from 2026 to 2030 [98]. - The penetration rate of new energy storage in wind and solar power generation has increased significantly, from 0.61% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 6.88% at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [17]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, significant technological breakthroughs have been made in energy storage, including increased capacity of lithium battery cells and advancements in flow battery efficiency [9][10]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards longer-duration storage solutions, with a notable increase in projects exceeding 4 hours of storage duration [45]. - The average available capacity of new energy storage systems has shown high reliability, with peak discharge capabilities reaching 44.53 million kW in 2025 [24]. Group 4: Project and Market Dynamics - The number of newly operational energy storage projects in 2025 was 5,014, with a total power capacity of 328.0 GW, indicating a shift towards larger-scale projects [39]. - The bidding landscape for new energy storage projects is becoming more rational, with a focus on quality over quantity, as the number of projects remains stable or slightly declines [53]. - The market is diversifying, with energy storage systems now participating in various market categories, including long-term, spot, and ancillary services [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that national energy investment in China is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025, with key project investments surpassing 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 11% [1] - The investment growth rate in the energy sector outpaces that of infrastructure and manufacturing by 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points, respectively [1] - Five provinces (Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu) each completed energy investments exceeding 200 billion yuan last year [1] Group 2 - In 2025, investments in green energy transition new formats are accelerating, with new installed capacity for wind and solar power exceeding 430 million kilowatts and cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts [1] - Investment in onshore wind power is showing strong growth, with key projects seeing a year-on-year investment increase of nearly 50% [1] - The new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries are experiencing significant growth, with key project investments doubling compared to the previous year [1] Group 3 - Investment in energy security key areas is expanding effectively, with good growth in coal power and conventional hydropower investments [1] - Major hydropower projects in the southwestern region are progressing steadily, increasing physical workload [1] - Investment in the power grid is maintaining stable growth, with accelerated construction of cross-provincial and cross-regional transmission channels [1] Group 4 - Private enterprises in the energy sector are also experiencing rapid investment growth, with key project investments increasing by 12.9% year-on-year, surpassing the national energy project growth rate by approximately 2 percentage points [2] - Private investments are primarily focused on solar power generation, wind power, and coal mining, with double-digit growth in onshore wind and distributed solar photovoltaic sectors [2]