Industry Overview - Pork concept stocks experienced a strong rally on the 11th, with Lihua Co. rising approximately 13%, reaching a nearly one-year high; Tiankang Biological and Muyuan Foods increased over 7%, while Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group rose about 6% [1] - As of September 7, the national average price of live pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range during the week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Institutions indicate that the supply side is experiencing a temporary tightening due to reduced output from group farms at the beginning of the month; however, the goal of reducing weight at group farms has not yet been achieved, coupled with an increase in the inventory levels of standard pigs and large pigs, leading to persistent oversupply pressure [1] - Demand is not expected to improve significantly in the short term, suggesting a continued imbalance with strong supply and weak demand [1] Future Projections - An increase in pig production capacity is anticipated from May 2024, with a peak expected in the second half of 2025, alongside a rise in the number of newborn piglets in the first half of 2025 [1] - Supply pressure is expected to be significant in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter; however, under policy guidance, the decline in pork prices may be relatively moderated [1] Policy Implications - Zhongyou Securities notes that the government has repeatedly emphasized controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting secondary breeding, aiming to guide the pork market towards "high-quality development," reflecting the government's determination to regulate pork production capacity and stabilize prices [1] - The supply of pigs in the second half of 2025 will be determined by production capacity from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with the effects of policies expected to manifest around the second half of 2026, potentially raising the price center of pork [1] Company Performance - There are significant cost differences among companies, with outstanding companies still able to achieve profitability; it is recommended to prioritize companies with cost advantages [1]

Group 1 - The pig farming sector stocks experienced a collective surge, with the Livestock ETF (516760) rising by 2.13% [1] - Key stocks such as Lihua Co. (300761) increased by 12.29%, Muyuan Foods (002714) by 6.56%, and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 6.13% [1] - A meeting on September 16 will be held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss pig production capacity regulation, involving 25 companies including Muyuan and Wens [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities noted that after a period of adjustment, the valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading firms still achieving good profitability [1] - The report anticipates that if supply pressure leads to capacity reduction in the second half of the year, leading companies can leverage their cost advantages to steadily increase market share [1] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector, currently showing a low PE-TTM of 14.11, indicating a historical low valuation [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in A-share pork stocks, driven by upcoming regulatory measures aimed at controlling pig production capacity [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is set to hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control with 25 major companies [1] - The meeting will analyze the current pig production situation and share measures and results from pig farming enterprises regarding capacity control [1] Group 2 - Leading stocks such as Lihua Shares saw an increase of 11.86%, with a market capitalization of 19.7 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 24.49% [2] - Bangji Technology experienced a 9.99% rise, reaching a market cap of 4.816 billion, with a remarkable year-to-date increase of 185.72% [2] - Other notable performers include Tian Kang Biological, Mu Yuan Shares, and Wen's Shares, which rose over 6%, with market caps of 9.966 billion, 316.6 billion, and 132.3 billion respectively [2]

Group 1 - Zhongliang Jiajia Kang (01610) shares increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 1.95 with a trading volume of HKD 49.1153 million [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, plans to hold a meeting on September 16 in Beijing to discuss pig production capacity regulation, inviting 25 companies including Muyuan, Wens, and Zhongliang [1] - CICC previously indicated that the company is improving production efficiency and reducing costs in pig farming, which may enhance cost competitiveness [1] Group 2 - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's liquid biological assets amounted to RMB 2.79 billion, an increase of 16.9% compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The company is exploring a light-asset breeding model, which is expected to support an output of 5 to 6 million pigs in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The stock of COFCO Joycome (01610) increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 1.95 with a trading volume of HKD 49.1153 million [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, plans to hold a meeting on September 16 in Beijing to discuss pig production capacity regulation, inviting 25 companies including COFCO [1] - CICC previously indicated that the company is improving efficiency and reducing costs in pig farming, returning to a healthy growth trajectory [1] Group 2 - The company is implementing comprehensive cost reduction measures involving all factors, segments, and personnel, which may enhance cost competitiveness [1] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's liquid biological assets amounted to CNY 2.79 billion, an increase of 16.9% compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The company is also exploring a light-asset breeding model, which is expected to support an output of 5 to 6 million pigs in 2025 [1]

摘要 生猪市场供需形势与价格展望 20250910 2025 年猪价预计不会明显上涨，因能繁母猪存栏量维持高位，新生仔 猪数量持续增长，供应趋势惯性增长，疫情影响较小。 产能调控措施如降体重、限二育等短期内压制猪价，牧原等头部企业体 重下降明显，但长期效果需持续观察。 8 月份猪价不及预期引发市场恐慌，养殖场户急于出栏，进一步压制价 格，短期内生猪价格难以明显上涨。 当前生猪行业产能调控效果不理想，母猪存栏量维持高位，未来供应可 能继续保持高水平甚至增长。 生猪价格对不同养殖主体影响差异大，头部企业仍有盈利，中小养殖户 面临亏损，可能被迫减少产能。 头部企业在产能调控中作用关键，但多数企业去产能动作不明显，需更 强有力的政策干预。 未来政策可能采取更明确的减产目标和信贷约束等措施，以实现 3,900 万正常保有量目标，平衡市场供应。 Q&A 当前生猪市场的供需情况如何，为什么猪价表现不及预期？ 当前生猪市场的供需情况总体上与预期差异不大。许多人对 8 月份前后的所谓 断档期抱有一定希望，但实际上 2025 年并不存在断档期。农业农村部的数据 表明，能繁母猪存栏量在去年下半年增加后，今年以来保持高位水平，新生仔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pork price is experiencing a downward trend, reaching new lows, with concerns about potentially falling below 13 yuan/kg. However, there is a belief that prices may stabilize by the end of September if the market can withstand the mid-month pressures [2]. Group 1: Supply Risks - The official target is to reduce the breeding pig capacity to below 39 million heads by the end of the year, while the breeding sow capacity was still at 40.42 million heads as of the end of July, indicating a tight timeline for adjustments [4]. - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly after previous capacity reductions, making the actions of leading companies more impactful on the market. Typically, there is a tightening of supply at the beginning and end of the month, with increased supply expected mid-month, leading to potential price declines [5]. - There is a risk of supply pressure due to the ongoing production capacity adjustments and the need to manage the market effectively [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Although there has been a slight improvement in pork consumption with the cooling weather, it is still far from the expected peak consumption season, indicating that demand has not significantly rebounded [6]. - The increase in supply from large enterprises, coupled with sluggish demand, poses a significant challenge for small and medium-sized farmers, potentially pushing some out of the market [6]. - The upcoming double festival at the end of the month is expected to provide a temporary boost to market consumption, which may influence market sentiment positively [6]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - The pace of reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter is slowing down, which means that the market supply of pork may decrease, alleviating some supply pressure [8]. - There has been a rise in secondary fattening practices, which, despite official controls, are expected to increase as the consumption season approaches, further tightening the supply pressure [9]. - With a reduction in supply and an anticipated increase in demand, there is a possibility for pork prices to stabilize or even see a slight increase, especially as the peak consumption season approaches in October [11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Charoen Pokphand International (03839), which rose over 15% and reached a historical high of 8.87 HKD, with a current increase of 21.49% at 8.82 HKD and a trading volume of 19.796 million HKD [1] - The article reports that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is set to hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity regulation, inviting 25 leading companies including Muyuan and Wens [1] - Charoen Pokphand International is a subsidiary of Charoen Pokphand Group and is recognized as one of the world's leading producers of oxytetracycline, with a mid-year revenue of approximately 323 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 199.44% [1] Group 2 - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.046 million USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 768.36%, primarily driven by significant growth in the biochemical business focused on animal health products and oxytetracycline [1] - According to Huaxin Securities, the global market for veterinary oxytetracycline is dominated by two companies, Jinhe Biology and Charoen Pokphand Biology, which together account for over 90% of the global production capacity, indicating a duopoly market structure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Charoen Pokphand Enterprises International (03839) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising over 15% yesterday and reaching a new historical high of 8.87 HKD today, with a current increase of 21.49% at 8.82 HKD and a trading volume of 19.796 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Charoen Pokphand Enterprises International reported mid-term revenue of approximately 323 million USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 199.44% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.046 million USD, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 768.36% [1] - The significant profit growth is primarily attributed to the notable expansion of the group's biochemical business, which focuses on animal health pharmaceutical products and oxytetracycline [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is set to hold a meeting on September 16 in Beijing to discuss the implementation of pig production capacity control measures, inviting 25 leading companies including Muyuan and Wens [1] - Recently, Muyuan Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Charoen Pokphand Group [1] - The global market for veterinary oxytetracycline is dominated by two companies, Jinhe Biology and Charoen Pokphand Biology, which together account for over 90% of the global production capacity, indicating a duopoly market structure [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming sector is experiencing a strong performance, with a focus on the upcoming meeting to discuss production capacity regulation among major companies [1][2] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a meeting on September 16 to analyze the current pig production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures with 25 participating companies [1] - Major companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope are expected to share their experiences and strategies regarding capacity control during the meeting [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities states that after a period of adjustment, the valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading companies still achieving good profitability [2] - The industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom of the economic cycle, with a potential for supply-side contraction leading to improved profitability for top-tier companies [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the livestock farming index tracked by the breeding ETF is 14.11 times, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past three years [2]