【环球时报驻以色列、美国特约记者 张灏 李致】根据以色列总理办公室的声明，以总理内塔尼亚胡定于11日在华盛顿与美国总统特朗普会晤。内 塔尼亚胡在声明中明确表示，此行将重点讨论伊朗问题，"任何针对伊朗的谈判都必须包括对伊朗弹道导弹的限制条款，并要求伊朗停止对其地区 代理人武装的支持"。 《以色列时报》称，内塔尼亚胡的这一声明，表明以色列对当前的美伊谈判进展感到担忧。这将是特朗普重返白宫以来，内塔尼亚胡第七次访问 美国。即将上任的以空军司令奥默·蒂施勒预计将随同前往。由于以色列驻美武官一职目前处于空缺状态，蒂施勒近期被任命为驻五角大楼的临 时"军事特使"，直至其在今年4月正式接任空军司令一职。 以《晚报》10日称，以方将向美方明确其核心诉求：任何未来的协议都不能仅局限于核条款，必须包含对伊朗弹道导弹计划的限制，以及停止伊 朗对其地区代理人武装的支持。而此次提前会晤，是为了在这一"敏感时期"与美方进行直接沟通，以消除分歧，确保以色列关切的安全红线，即 核威胁、弹道导弹威胁及伊朗代理人威胁——不会被排除在谈判桌之外。 以色列瓦拉新闻网10日称，根据目前的行程安排，内塔尼亚胡与特朗普的会晤预计不会向媒体开放，也没有安排 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Short position continues [1] - **PP**: Short position continues [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Short position continues [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Wait for the outcome of the US-Iran negotiation. Oil prices are adjusting oscillatory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the supply surplus pattern remains unturned. There is still downward pressure on oil prices [1]. - The cost support for LPG weakens, and the chemical demand also weakens, leading to a downward trend [1]. - The upstream inventory of L drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed, and the post - holiday verification situation should be concerned [1]. - PP follows the cost in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The cost has support, and the subsequent demand verification situation should be concerned [1]. - The weekly export order volume of PVC weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [1]. - The valuation of PX/PTA is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. The outlook is positive [2]. - The valuation of MEG is overall low. The supply increases, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - The social and port inventories of methanol are being depleted. The supply is slightly loose, the demand improves, and the cost has support [3]. - The comprehensive profit of urea is good. The supply is under pressure, the demand is temporarily supported, and the price is range - bound under the policy [3]. - The cold wave weakens while the export increases, and the natural gas price is in consolidation [6]. - The asphalt valuation is high, the supply - demand is loose, and the demand enters the off - season, so the price has room for compression [6]. - The glass market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The inventory accumulates slightly, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [6]. - The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices adjusted oscillatory. WTI rose 0.41%, Brent rose 0.74%, and domestic SC fell 0.36% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, waiting for the outcome of the US - Iran negotiation. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East rises. The US crude oil production increases, and the production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield recovers. India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. As of the week ending January 30, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.45 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 0.684 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 5.552 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 0.214 million barrels [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, it is in oscillatory adjustment, and the fluctuation increases. Pay attention to the geopolitical progress in the Middle East. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 480] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,228 yuan/ton, up 0.74% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,450 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,475 (+29) yuan/ton, and 4,830 (-15) yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. PG focuses on the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L01, L05 (main contract), and L09 increased by 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 192 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream inventory drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed. The cost - end oil and ethane prices fall, the linear production remains at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP01, PP05 (main contract), and PP09 increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows the cost. The off - season leads to inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand is weak, the shutdown ratio is 20%, the supply pressure is relieved, and the cost has support. Pay attention to the subsequent demand verification [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP focuses on the range of [6550 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of V01, V05 (main contract), and V09 decreased by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: The weekly export order volume weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit remains at a low level, and the bottom cost has support. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: V focuses on the range of [4850 - 5050] [27]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to the capital behavior. Buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract and control the position. TA05 focuses on the range of [5110 - 5220] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 changed. The main contract's basis was - 113 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, the overseas device maintenance increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - month contract on dips. EG05 focuses on the range of [3680 - 3780] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The import volume in January is 125.9wt. The demand stops falling, and the cost has weak support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, and the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The import volume in January slightly exceeds expectations, the domestic start - up maintains a high level, and the port inventory is slightly depleted. The demand stops falling. Hold long positions. MA05 focuses on the range of [2219 - 2369] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis is 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the supply pressure is large, the demand is temporarily supported, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policy, the price has a ceiling and a floor [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focuses on the range of [1760 - 1790] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 5, the NG main contract closed at 3.516 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.68% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.630 (-0.690) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 12.602 (-0.415) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,896 (-18) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold wave impact on the US natural gas price has gradually subsided. The domestic LNG retail profit increases. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand in Japan decreases. The US natural gas inventory decreases [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. NG focuses on the range of [2.979 - 3.522] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 6, the BU main contract closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 1.41% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,240 (-10) yuan/ton, 3,270 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the oil price is oscillatory and strong. The asphalt comprehensive profit decreases. The supply decreases in February, the demand increases in 2025, and the inventory rises [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks. BU focuses on the range of [3300 - 3400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 decreased by 1.0%, 1.5%, and 1.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The inventory accumulates slightly, the demand enters the off - season, and the daily melting volume drops. The supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1030 - 1080] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 decreased by 1.1%, 1.6%, and 1.6% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure due to the new production and maintenance. Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance further intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-09燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：贸易商称，尽管下游加油活动活跃，尤其是在农历新年前夕，但亚洲低硫燃料油市场仍受到近期充足 的套利供应压制，美伊谈判开局较为良好，暂未增加地缘担忧，预计燃油价格短期震荡运行，等待更多地缘信号 出现。FU2603：2750-2810区间运行，LU2603：3220-3280区间运行 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱，主要受即期供应充足影响。与此同时，含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价 差连续第二个交易日维持负值不变，原因是货物需求疲软；新加坡高硫燃料油的需求通常从3月开始回升，以满 足南亚夏季发电高峰的 ...

今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于79.40一线上方，今日开盘于78.10美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报80.31美元/盎司，上涨3.59%，最高触及81.42美元/盎司，最低下探78.10美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡将于周三（2月11日）在华盛顿会见美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就美伊谈判进 行磋商。其办公室上周六发表声明之际，伊朗外交部长在双方会谈次日威胁将打击美国在该地区的军事 基地。 内塔尼亚胡办公室在一份简短声明中表示："总理认为所有谈判都必须包括限制弹道导弹项目，并终止 对伊朗轴心的支持"，声明所指系德黑兰对包括黎巴嫩真主党和巴勒斯坦领土哈马斯在内的武装组织的 支持。特朗普与内塔尼亚胡上次会晤是在2025年12月。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 上周六，阿拉格希表示，若美国攻击伊朗，伊朗没有能力打击美国本土，因此不得不攻击或报复美国在 该地区的军事基地。他表示，在经历了上一轮谈判期间发生的事件后，双方存在"极其深刻的不信任"。 当时美国在2025年以色列-伊朗战争期间轰炸了伊朗核设施。 【最新c ...

美谈判代表登上美军航母 以总理将提前访美 7日，参与此次美伊谈判的美方代表登上日前进入阿拉伯海海域的美军"林肯"号航空母舰。美国媒体报 道称，这清楚地表明，尽管美国和伊朗已重新展开谈判，但美国仍在继续加强在中东的军事部署。 此外，以色列总理府7日称，以总理内塔尼亚胡将于下周访美，讨论伊朗问题。据以色列媒体此前报 道，内塔尼亚胡原计划2月18日至22日访问华盛顿。 央视网消息（新闻联播）：伊朗外长阿拉格齐7日表示，伊朗在与美国的谈判中有两条"红线"：一是伊 朗不会放弃铀浓缩，二是伊朗不会就本国导弹事宜进行谈判。他还说，战争的可能性始终存在，伊朗已 做好准备。如果美国攻击伊朗，伊朗虽然无法攻击美国本土，但会打击美国在中东地区的军事基地。 据伊朗媒体7日报道，伊朗武装部队总参谋长穆萨维表示，伊朗空军目前处于最高战备状态，并与其他 军种充分协调，随时准备"应对任何形式的威胁或侵略"。 对于新一轮谈判，伊朗方面称，具体日期尚未确定，但伊美双方均认为应尽快举行。美方此前称，新一 轮谈判将于下周早些时候进行。 ...

阿拉格齐强调，禁止铀浓缩不是可谈判的选项。铀浓缩是伊朗的合法权利，必须继续推进。伊朗已准备 好就铀浓缩达成一项可靠的协议。他表示， 伊朗的主要立场是反对将铀转移出境，但伊朗准备降低铀浓 缩丰度 。此外，无论现在还是将来，伊朗都不可能就导弹事宜进行谈判，这属于伊朗国防范畴。 转自：央视 伊朗和美国6日在阿曼举行间接谈判。7日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐就伊美谈判划出两条"红线"，并表示第二 轮谈判可能在未来几天内进行。同一天，美国对伊谈判代表登上部署在阿拉伯海的美军"林肯"号航空母 舰，并与此前击落伊朗无人机的美军飞行员交谈。 从各方表态来看，伊美在伊朗核计划、美国对伊制裁等关键问题上的深层分歧仍难以突破，中东地区 的"战争警报"并未解除。 伊朗外长为谈判划 " 红线 " 伊朗外长阿拉格齐7日表示，伊朗在伊美谈判中有两条"红线"： 伊朗不会放弃铀浓缩，也不会就本国导 弹事宜进行谈判。 阿拉格齐表示，伊美谈判是一个良好的开端，但双方建立互信仍有很长的路要走。伊朗核问题只能通过 谈判解决。目前，伊美新一轮谈判具体日期尚未确定，但双方认为谈判应尽快举行。他表示， 第二轮谈 判有望在未来几天内举行 。 伊朗准备降低铀浓缩丰度 阿 ...

【#伊朗外长为伊美谈判划定红线#】记者当地时间2月6日获悉， 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐在结束马斯喀 特首轮磋商后，针对外界高度关注的地区安全及美军在中东的军事部署问题，阿拉格齐作出了明确回 应，为本次美伊接触划定了清晰的红线。阿拉格齐强调，现阶段美伊之间的对话内容具有高度的排他 性。他在回答关于地区安全局势的提问时明确表示："我们的对话内容仅限于核领域，除此之外，我们 不会与美国就任何其他议题进行沟通。"与此同时，阿拉格齐对对话的环境提出了严苛要求。他指出， 任何外交解决路径的前提都必须是"拒绝威胁与施压"。他在谈判中向美方严正声明：任何有效的对话都 必须在无压力、无威胁、低张力的氛围下进行。他表示，唯有美方切实做到这一点，后续对话才有继续 进行的可能性。（央视新闻） ...

（来源：直新闻） #特朗普称美伊谈判进展非常好#【事关浓缩铀 伊朗会向特朗普妥协吗？ 白孟宸：即使伊朗点头 操作层 面也有很多问题 伊朗不见得真想"炸响"核武】2月6日，美国和伊朗在阿曼首都马斯喀特展开谈判。谈 判前夕，伊朗方面表示只谈核问题，排除导弹等议题。但美方明确向伊朗提出停止铀浓缩、限制弹道导 弹项目、终止支持地区"代理人"三大要求，执意将非核议题纳入谈判范围。在浓缩铀问题上，伊朗会向 特朗普妥协吗？时事评论员白孟宸指出，即使伊朗妥协，在实际操作层面也会有很多问题，伊朗不见得 真想"炸响"核武。 ...

来源：央视新闻客户端 当地时间2月6日，美国与伊朗代表团在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行历时数小时的两轮"背靠背"谈判——双方 并未同桌，而是由阿曼外交大臣巴德尔在双方代表团之间往返传话，讨论重点指向"为恢复外交沟通与 技术磋商创造适当条件"。 在海湾局势持续紧张的背景下，这种"背靠背"的形式本身就释放了一个信号—— 谈判更像是把渠道重新 打通、把底线先行摸清，而不是马上进入实质性的对话环节。 东道主阿曼注重平衡 美国伊朗态度大不同 伊朗方面在会后迅速对外发声。伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐对媒体表示，会谈是"好的开始"，后续将回 到德黑兰进行内部磋商再决定下一轮谈判的形式与时间。他同时再次划出红线，强调议题只限核问题， 不讨论导弹与地区议题，且对话必须避免威胁与施压。 美国的表态则明显更克制。谈判后并未第一时间由美方代表团成员发声，更多由总统层面给出简短评 价。特朗普表示，美伊在阿曼举行了"非常好"的谈判，他认为伊朗似乎"非常渴望达成协议"，同时表示 美伊计划下周继续谈判，但没有透露具体地点。 作为东道主与调停方，阿曼外交部门的措辞最平衡：强调对话"重要"，目标在于确保谈判成功并维护地 区安全稳定。沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、土耳 ...

2月6日，伊朗和美国在阿曼首都马斯喀特进行间接谈判。带队谈判的，美国方面是特朗普的特使威特科夫，而伊朗方面是外长阿拉格齐。 会谈结束之后，阿拉格齐表示，会谈是积极的，双方进行了长时间、内容紧凑的对话，"我认为氛围很好，是一个良好的开端"。 会谈东道主阿曼的外交大臣巴德尔当天则说，伊朗和美国当天在马斯喀特举行的谈判"非常严肃"。他说，这有助于伊美双方澄清立场、确定有望在哪些方面 取得进展。各方计划在适当时候再次举行谈判，伊美双方将把谈判结果带回各自首都进行审慎研究。 那么，美伊谈判的难点究竟在哪里？谈判前景如何？ 几经周折 实际上，从整个形势看，美国虽然大规模集结兵力，但无论是对伊朗进行大规模打击，还是进行有限轰炸，甚至针对伊朗领导层定点打击，都难以达到效 果，反而可能加剧中东地区动荡。因此，特朗普政府也不断放出风声，称希望通过谈判解决问题。 至于伊朗，过去两年因加沙战争导致的一系列周边战争，实力严重削弱，加上最近国内形势动荡，更不愿和美国开战。因此，在紧张局势下，美伊有谈判的 基础。 羊城晚报国际评论员 钱克锦 在中东多国的调解下，双方同意开始间接谈判。间接谈判一般有两种形式：一种是谈判双方不在同一个房间，而 ...